The US dollar index held support yesterday and started a strong upward move favoring our bullish scenario as the price held important support levels and the bullish channel. The trend is bullish and as long as the price is above 96.20, I will favor bullish positions targeting new highs.
Black lines - bullish channel The US dollar index held above the lower channel boundary and reversed higher from the 38% retracement. This bounce is an important bullish signal. The index has broken above the Kijun-sen (yellow indicator) and is trying to break above the Ichimoku cloud. Breaking above the cloud will confirm bullish trend.
Blue line - trendline resistance The weekly chart remains bullish as the weekly candle has moved back above the Kijun-sen indicator. Important support is at this week's lows and resistance is at 97.80. As long as the price is above 96.20, I favor the bullish scenario. Breaking above resistance will confirm this scenario and is a sign to add to longs.
The US Dollar Index has made a short-term reversal and is showing signs of an imminent pullback. Bulls managed to reach the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 100 to 93.10 and a small pullback is justified here. The upward move from 93.10 is impulsive and this implies that it is more probable that a new upward move has started.
Green line= trend line support The US Dollar Index has short-term support at 96.85 and more importantly at 96.40. Trendline support is at 96-95.80. I believe this is just another corrective pullback before the resumption of the uptrend. I remain longer-term bullish as long as we trade above 94.80.
Black area = support The US Dollar Index has managed to break above the black resistance area that is now support. Bulls have also managed to break inside the Ichimoku cloud and are fighting to stay inside. This is a bullish signal. Daily support is found at 96 and at 95. I believe the correction ended at 93.10 and a new upward move has started. I remain bullish.
The US dollar index has bounced from the lower channel boundary after the FOMC meeting and has managed to break above the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud giving a bullish signal. Now it has reached important resistance area, and if we see a rejection at the current levels, we should expect a pullback towards channel support again.
Black lines - bullish channel Red line - horizontal resistance The US dollar index is now trading above the Ichimoku cloud but below the short-term resistance at 97.80. A daily close above this resistance will open the way for a weekly breakout above the weekly resistance at 98-98.20.
Red line - horizontal resistance With the weekly candle turned blue again and above the kijun-sen indicator, all signs are bullish for the US dollar index. Support at 96.25 is very important for the medium-term trend of the index. A break below 96.25 will be a very bearish signal with a possible longer-term pullback towards 90. For now, bulls have the upper hand.
The USDX gained bullish momentum above the support level of 96.57 and now it could be expected to break the level of 97.57, where the key resistance zone is located. If that happens, the Index will rise to the level of 98.29. However, if a pullback happens at the current stage, the USDX will test the support zone of 96.57 again.
It seems there is a higher high pattern formation taking in place above the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. By the way, the USDX is pulling back and looking for an opportunity to test the support level of 97.12 again. If Index does a breakout here, it would be expected to fall until the level of 96.73. Be aware of the currrent bullish intraday bias in this time frame.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 97.57 / 98.29 Daily chart's support levels: 96.57 / 95.63 H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.65 / 98.09 H1 chart's support levels: 97.12 / 96.73 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 97.12, take profit is at 96.73, and stop loss is at 97.50.
The US Dollar Index was very volatile on Friday as the US dollar lost ground, bulls stepped in and made things rise but not to new highs. This double top rejection is a very important pattern that could give us a signal. However, it the index hit new highs on the weekly chart, we could reach the level of 100 level very fast.
Red line - resistance The US Dollar Index made a pullback towards the 38% retracement. A double bottom is formed. The next resistance is at 97.50. Support is found at 96.50.
Last week's candle favored bulls as the price managed to stay above the kijun- tenakan-sen. So, the important long-term support is found at 96 and 96.70. A break above 98 will increase chances of bulls to reach new highs around 102-103.
The mid-term outlook for this Index is still bullish, because the USDX is focused on a breakout of the resistance level at 97.57. That is a statement we also make, because of the rebound it did during Friday's session. However, bear in mind that the current structure, at least in an intraday overview, could be calling for more downside.
On the H1 chart, we are can see what it is a bearish consolidation in a short-term basis, because the USDX did not close above the high from July 30 last week. That is why we expect to see more downside on this Index, at least below the 200 SMA in this time frame. The MACD indicator remains in the positive territory.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 97.57 / 98.29 Daily chart's support levels: 96.57 / 95.63 H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.65 / 98.09 H1 chart's support levels: 97.12 / 96.73 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 97.12, take profit is at 96.73, and stop loss is at 97.50.
The US dollar index is showing some signs of weakness as it has approached short-term resistance levels. The USDX is inside a big triangle pattern and as long as we see no breakout above the 98 level, bulls should be very cautious.
Green lines - triangle pattern The US dollar index is being rejected at the upper resistance trendline of the triangle. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Support is at 97 and if it is broken, we could see a push towards 96.50, which is the most important short-term support. Resistance is found at 97.70-97.75 and in case of its break, we could see a push higher towards 98-98.20.
Red line - resistance trendline Green line - support trendline The weekly chart is showing the upward bounce from 96 has stopped at the red trendline resistance. More buyers are needed to break this resistance. There is still more sellers than buyers, and it has stopped the upward move. The battle between bulls and bears is strong in this area and that is why we are making a sideways move and no clear trending move. I believe the best strategy is to be neutral and wait. Patience is a virtue.
The USDX is trading higher looking for an opportunity to test the resistance level of 98.29 after a successful breakout around the level of 97.57 to the upside. The current daily chart structure is still very bullish. The index could consolidate above the 99.00 psychological level in coming days. The MACD indicator is entering the positive territory.
On the H1 chart, the USDX managed to perform a good rebound above the 200 SMA. We are currently watching a higher high pattern formation below the resistance zone of 98.09, which should be broken to the upside in order to test the next high around 98.40. The MACD indicator is entering the overbought territory.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 98.29 / 99.16 Daily chart's support levels: 97.57 / 96.57 H1 chart's resistance levels: 98.09 / 98.40 H1 chart's support levels: 97.65 / 97.12 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 98.09, take profit is at 98.40, and stop loss is at 97.77.
The US Dollar index gave a short-term bullish signal yesterday breaking above the short-term trend-line resistance. The US Dollar Index moved towards short-term higher highs in the important resistance area of 98.-98.20.
Green lines - triangle pattern The index remains above the Ichimoku cloud implying that the short-term trend is bullish. Yesterday, we got another bullish signal after a breake above the downward sloping trendline as shown in the 4-hour chart above. We are at important resistance levels now. Critical short-term support is at 97.30.
Red line - resistance Green line - support The weekly chart above shows the important resistance level we are currently at. A rejection in this area will probably push the US Dollar Index towards the Green trendline support. Important weekly support is seen at 96.70. Bulls do not want a break below that area.
The US Dollar Index got rejected at the long-term resistance level of 98.20 and is back below 98 now. The short-term bullish trend is still intact but also fragile. Currently, we can say that the index is making a back-test of the breakout area. As long as the price is above 96, bulls will be in control.
Green lines - triangle pattern The US Dollar Index broke the triangle pattern upwards. The index is making a back-test of the breakout area. The rrice is above the Ichimoku cloud. Support is at 97.15 and the next onr is at 96.50.
Red line - resistance Green line - support The index got rejected yesterday at the red resistance line. Kijun-sen weekly support is at 96.80. The trend remains bullish, but bulls must be very cautious at current levels and especially tomorrow as the NFP volatility is expected to rise. So, I would not expect a bigger breakout above 98.20 until tomorrow.
