Technical analysis of USDX & USD/JPY for June 29, 2015
Mounting concerns about crisis in Greece helped USD open with a gap up. The Index hit a low of 93.56 trading at 96.18. It faced the resistance at 96.40 20Wsma. The parallel resistance is seen at 96.55. We expect strong bullish momentum above 96.60 towards 96.90 initially and 97.70 later. USD/JPY At today's Asian session, data on the Japanese industrial and retail sales is due. Retail sales climbed to 3.0% beating expectations of 2.1%, but remains below the previous readings for 4.9%. The prelim industrial production output contracted to - 2.2% against 1.2% in the previous month. Technical view: The pair hit a low of 122.13. The pair fell below the large ascending triangle after the opening bell, but managed to close above that in the four-hour chart. Intraday resistance is seen at 123.25, 123.45, and 123.70. The pair made a double top at 124.45. Bulls must take-off at the double top as soon as they can. In case the price closes below the ascending triangle, bears are likely to aim for 121.70 and 121.20. The 50Dsma is found at 121.80 and trend-change level remains at 120.80. Until the pair closes above 120.80, use every dip to buy. The 20Dsma is seen at 123.75. The weekly trading pattern is framed between 123.75 and 121.80. Either side close will deliver 124.45 and 125 or 121.20 and 121.00. Intraday: Resistance is seen at 123.25, 123.55, and 123.70. Support is expected at 122.10, 122.00, and 121.80. Buying is available above 123.80 towards 124.00 and 124.40. Big moves loom at 124.50. Selling is available below 122.80 towards 122.50, 122.35, and 122.10.
A bullish gap is taking advantage of the USDX current trend on the daily chart, because the Index responded Greek news released at the weekend. Currently, we could expect a huge fall to the support level of 95.74 where it is currently making a strong bottom. That move is needed because of the gap.
The H1 chart is advising us to wait for a gap which is expacted to take place in coming hours, because the USDX is trying the resistance level of 96.25. However, this pullback could be extended below the support level of 95.80, but our overall forecast for this Index is still bullish, at least in the short and mid term. The MACD indicator is overbought.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.57 / 97.49 Daily chart's support levels: 95.74 / 94.66 H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.25 / 96.57 H1 chart's support levels: 95.80 / 95.48 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index gets broken with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.25, take profit is at 96.57, and stop loss is at 95.93.
The US Dollar Index was very weak yesterday as its main component, the EURUSD pair, made an impressive rally. The US Dollar Index completed an impulsive upward move with a complete set of 5 waves. The retracement has already reached the 61.8% retracement and the cloud support.
The US Dollar Index is above the cloud support and is making a bounce from that area. As long as the price is above the cloud, the short-term trend will remain bullish. However a break below the cloud will increase chances for a new lower low below 94.60. Critical short-term support is found at 93.50.
Blue line- trend line resistance The weekly chart remains in a bearish trend as the price did not manage to break above the blue downward sloping trend-line resistance.The weekly candle is seen around the Ichimoku indicators of tenkan and kijun-sen. A weekly close below 95.20 will be bearish. I still prefer a bearish wave count where we are in a deeper downward correction that will bring the Index to the level of 90.
On the daily chart, the USDX has pulled back from its highs after a bullish gap, which was formed on the back of developments in Greece. The support zone around 94.66 is still the closest one on the downside, but the USDX could start trading higher if it does a rebound at that support. In case of success, it will test the next resistance at the level of 95.74.
Index closed the bullish gap falling below the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. Now, the USDX is forming a lower low pattern and looking for an opportunity to break the support level of 94.77. Anyway, a rebound at the current levels will help the USDX consolidate again above the moving average mentioned before. The MACD indicator is reaching the oversold territory.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.74 / 96.57 Daily chart's support levels: 94.66 / 93.63 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.09 / 95.48 H1 chart's support levels: 94.77 / 94.40 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.09, take profit is at 95.48, and stop loss is at 94.71.
The US Dollar Index reached the cloud and 61.8% retracement support and bounced yesterday. The price continued moving upwards and the short-term trend remains bullish. Critical support is at 94.60 and at 95 for the medium- and short-term trend.
Blue line - trend line support The US Dollar Index has made an impulsive move upwards and a correction that back tested the cloud support. The price is moving higher. The trend is bullish as the price remains above the cloud. Critical support is at 94.60 in the short term.
Blue line - trend line resistance The US Dollar Index is above the tenkan- and kijun-sen again. However, the price must break above the blue trend-line resistance to let bulls regain full control of the trend, . S,o resistance is found at 96.70. If support at 94.60 fails, we should expect bears to regain control and push the price towards the next big support at 93.10. If that is broken as well, we should expect a push towards at least 92.50 and 90.
The USDX recovered from the losses produced by filling the bullish gap, and now the Index is looking for an opportunity to break the resistance level of 95.74 as we can note on the daily chart. In case success, it would be expected to test the next high at 96.57.
On the H1 chart, the USDX found dynamic support at 200 SMA and this bullish structure remains very strong, because the Index is forming a higher high pattern above the support level of 95.43. The next upside target is still placed at the level of 95.63. If the USDX does a breakout over there, it would be expected to test the territory of 95.89.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.74 / 96.57 Daily chart's support levels: 94.66 / 93.63 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.63 / 95.89 H1 chart's support levels: 95.43 / 95.09 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.63, take profit is at 95.89, and stop loss is at 95.36
The US Dollar Index remains in a strong uptrend since it bounced from cloud resistance of 94.50. It is moving towards new short-term higher highs. The medium-term bearish trend is not canceled yet as the price remains below medium-term resistance at 97.
Blue line - support The US Dollar Index is above the cloud support and in a bullish trend as the price hits higher highs and higher lows. Support is seen at 95 and resistance is seen at 97. There is mounting risk of reversal if bulls do not manage to break above 97. A pullback towards 95.50 will not cancel the short-term bullish trend.
Blue line - medium-term trend line resistance The US Dollar Index strengthening have pushed the weekly candle above the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. However, the most important resistance is still intact. The blue downward sloping trend-line resistance at 97 is the medium-term resistance that bulls need to break. In this case, the bearish scenario will have even less chances for success.
The US Dollar Index remains in an uptrend for a short term. We see some signs of short-term reversal to pull back. The price is also below the important weekly resistance at 97, but as long as we hold above 94.50, bulls are in control. However, we should note that there is increased risk of a gap down on Monday in case a yes vote wins at the Greek referendum as the EURUSD is the main component of the Index.
Blue line - trend line support The US Dollar Index is above the cloud and trend-line support. The price is moving towards higher highs and higher lows. We could see a pullback towards 95 today, but if a yes vote wins at the Greek referendum, we should see a gap down on Monday's openning.
Blue line - weekly trend line resistance The weekly chart is still below the trend-line resistance. This is an important resistance area. There is a strong possibility that the rejection at this level can be combined with a gap down on Monday as we have the extraordinary event in Greece. Traders should be very cautious and be protected against a possible gap down on Monday.
The current cycles at the USDX are still showing enough room for upside moves at least in the daily chart. Because of it, the Index could test the resistance zone of 96.57 again where it could try a breakout in order to reach new highs. On the other hand, the USDX could make a pullback.
In H1 chart, the USDX is trading above the support level of 95.89, which is still producing a strong demand zone and the price action gets irregular when that territory is reached. By the way, we're still seeing the current moves as corrective and any opportunity to buy at lows will be a good strategy, but with caution.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.57 / 97.57 Daily chart's support levels: 95.74 / 94.66 H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.38 / 96.65 H1 chart's support levels: 96.13 / 95.89 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.38, take profit is at 96.65, and stop loss is at 96.13.
The USDX remains alive in the bullish cycle formed on the daily chart, because the index stays above the support level of 95.74 and it's looking to trade above 96.57. If that happens in the short term, it would be expected to test the next resistance located around 97.57. The MACD indicator is still at positive territory.
In the H1 chart, the USDX continues to trade sideways and it's looking to develop clearer intraday structure. That's why the index is calling for more upside room and it would be expected to test the resistance level of 96.65 again. However, a pullback shouldn't be discarded yet. It could be extended until the 200 SMA.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.57 / 97.57 Daily chart's support levels: 95.74 / 94.66 H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.38 / 96.65 H1 chart's support levels: 96.13 / 95.89 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.38, take profit is at 96.65, and stop loss is at 96.13.
