The support zone of 93.75 remains very strong in the daily time frame. We have been expecting demand zone to be placed over there since several weeks ago. The USDX could test the resistance zone of 95.74 in coming days. The MACD indicator is still in negative territory.
In the H1 chart, support level of 93.88 rejected the Index during the monday session and that's why we expect more corrective moves. Anyway, the resistance level of 94.33 is still strong and we cannot discard a possible pullback towards the level of 93.88 where a strong demand zone is located in the short term.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 94.66 / 95.74 Daily chart's support levels: 93.75 / 93.14 H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.33 / 94.63 H1 chart's support levels: 93.88 / 93.53 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.88, take profit is at 93.53, and stop loss is at 94.24.
The US dollar showed signs of strength yesterday and early this morning but bulls need to be very cautious as we are approaching very important short-term resistance area. A trend remains bearish as the price is heading towards lower lows and lower highs.
Green line - trend line resistance broken Red line - horizontal resistance broken The US Dollar Index managed to break above the short-term trendline resistance levels. This is a bullish sign. Support is at 94.40 and at 93.77 now. The price remains below the Ichimoku cloud that implies the trend remains bearish.
As we can see in the weekly chart, the price is testing the broken kijun-sen (yellow line) indicator. The important support and low at 93.10 holds for now. However, the trend remains bearish with a high probability of a move lower towards 92.50 or even 90 where the 50% retracement is found.
US existing home sales helped the greenback get up from the lows. Existing home sales data rose 5.1% to a seasonally adjusted annually rate of 5.35million. The USDX headed towards higher lows and higher highs. At the Asian session, the index hit a higher high facing strong resistance at 94.65 h1200hrsma and 50hrsma in the four-hour chart. In case bulls take it off, they will aim for 94.75 and 95.10. Whereas, 94.75 is the another crucial resistance. Ahead of today's US data release, the greenback is showing strength during the Asian session. Core durable good orders, flash manufacturing PMI, and new home sales data is due today. We expect another positive readings for durable good orders. At today's Asian session, the USDX is showing tremendous strength pushing down other currencies on its way. The kiwi is trading at a 5-year low.
The US Dollar Index broke above the short-term resistance at 95.10 yesterday and bounced higher towards the 50% retracement of a decline from 97.80. There are some signs of the short-term reversal from this retracement level as the price remains inside the cloud-resistance area.
The US Dollar Index is inside the cloud resistance. There is a short-term rejection at the 50% retracement that could push the Index back towards the support by the kijun-sen (yellow line) at 94.60. A break below this short-term support will increase chances for a push towards a recent low of 93.60.
The weekly chart is showing some bullish reversal signs. A low of 93.10 was held, the weekly candle is back above the kijun-sen resistance indicator. Next weekly resistance is seen at 95.70. A weekly close above this level will be a strong reversal signal. That will decrease dramatically the chances for a break below 93.10.
The greenback was supported by existing home sales data. After yesterday's home sales data report, bulls gained power. At yesterday's session the index move higher towards 95.64 faced resistance at 50Dsma. The greenback strengthened at yesterday's Asian session. At today's Asian session, the Index faced resistance at 50Dsma again. Traders eye on US GDP data. The recent employment rate, retail sales and housing data indicates a kind of improvement in the US economy. In this case, US dollar bulls will target at 96.25 20Wsma. The parallel resistance is seen at 95.68. Fresh buying is available above 95.70 with targets at 96.00 and 96.15. Strong upswing is expected above 96.25 towards 97.00. Support is found at 95.20 and 94.50. USD/CAD The pair is moving upwards for 3 consecutive sessions. At yesterday's session, the pair rejected at 100Dsma. In intraday basis, the pair managed to get above 20Dsma, but was unable to close above this level at the end of the day. In the four-hour chart, we can observe multiple tops at 1.2367. The weekly resistance is seen at 1.2400 whereas 20Wsma is seen at 1.2385. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.2360 and 1.2385. Until the pair closes below 1.2400, it does not look wise to open fresh long positions. The support is found at 1.2280 and 1.2280. Selling accelerates below 1.2260 towards 1.2220 and 1.2200. Big moves are expected above 1.2400 towards 1.2440. The positional support is found at 1.2260, 1.2220, and 1.2200. Real selling will be available only below 1.2200.
On the daily chart, the USDX has been trading higher during the last hours, as the Index is trying to break the resistance level of 95.74. However, we could expect some consolidation moves in the hours to come.
The short-term outlook tells us about a bullish pattern formation taking place in the H1 chart above the support level of 95.23. The nearest resistance is located around 95.48 and now a high of 95.80 can be the next target if the Index does a breakout over there. The USDX is trading above the 200 SMA in the H1 chart.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.74 / 96.57 Daily chart's support levels: 94.66 / 93.75 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.48 / 95.80 H1 chart's support levels: 95.24 / 94.63 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.48, take profit is at 95.80, and stop loss is at 95.10.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.74 / 96.57 Daily chart's support levels: 94.66 / 93.75 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.48 / 95.80 H1 chart's support levels: 95.24 / 94.63 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.48, take profit is at 95.80, and stop loss is at 95.10.
The US Dollar Index continues showing signs of strength but it has not managed to break above the 50% retracement of the decline from 97.80. The short-term trend is bullish. The longer-term important support is found at 93.55. In case of breaking below this level, I would expect a push towards 92.50 at least if not 90 where the 50% retracement of the larger upward move is found.
The US Dollar Index is above the cloud resistance and this is a short-term bullish sign. Resistance is found at 95.70 where the 50% retracement is found. If it is broken, I would expect the price to move towards the 61.8% retracement at least at 96.15.
The weekly chart remains supported by the kijun-sen. The 93.55 level is important support while a weekly close above 95.10 could imply more strength to come over the coming weeks. The pullback target is the 50% retracement and the price level of 90. This target will be achieved if we break below 93.10-93.50 support.
The daily chart structure is showing a double bottom pattern, which could help bulls get some kind of momentum in the coming days in order to reach new highs. However, we could expect more pullbacks when the USDX tests the resistance level of 95.74. The MACD indicator is entering the positive territory.
On the H1 chart, there is a good opportunity to enter with long trades, but be cautious with the current strength of the resistance level of 95.48. Anyway, if it does a breakout there, the level of 95.80 will be the next target.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.74 / 96.57 Daily chart's support levels: 94.66 / 93.75 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.48 / 95.80 H1 chart's support levels: 95.24 / 94.63 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.48, take profit is at 95.80, and stop loss is at 95.10.
The US Dollar Index makes a short-term consolidation while it remains below the 50% retracement. The longer-term view remains vulnerable to the downside and a deeper correction towards 92.50 or even 90. The area of 97-98 is the important resistance area for the longer-term trend.
Blue lines - triangle pattern The US Dollar Index continues to trade above the cloud and below the 50% retracement resistance. If we break this triangle pattern we should expect a push towards the cloud support at 94.55. In case of a breakout through the support, the chances that the upward bounce is over and a new downward move is starting will increase. On the other hand, a break above 95.70 will be a bullish signal that target shifts to 96.20 and then 97.50.
The weekly chart continues to trade around 95.10 where the kijun-sen (yellow line) indicator is found. This weekly candle has hit a higher high and a higher low than last weeks candle. This is a bullish sign, but not enough for full-scale upward reversal. Important support is at 93.55. If this level gets broken, we should expect a sharp move towards at least 92.50.
USDX technical analysis for June 29, 2015
The US Dollar Index broke above the triangle on Friday and we saw a gap up at early trading on Monday with new highs as the main component of the US Dollar Index. The EUR/USD pair moved down due to the Greek referendum announcement and inability of Greece's governement to reach an agreement with the European institutions and the IMF.
Blue lines- triangle The US Dollar Index is pulling back towards the tenkan- and kijun-sen support after the gap up earlier today. The price is above the cloud support. Short-term support is at 95-95.30. If is gets broken, we should expect a push even lower towards 94.50.
The weekly chart showed signs of strength last week. The price is above the kijun- and tenkan-sen indicators. The trend is mostly sideways. Support at 93.10 was held and bulls managed to reverse last week's candle producing a positive one. Weekly resistance is seen at 97.85 and at 97. Weekly support is at 93.50 and 93.10.
