Instaforex: USDX Index Analysis

[abu85]

Daily analysis of USDX for June 16, 2015

On the daily chart, the USDX is still finding support around 94.66, but in lower time frames, the bearish bias remains alive and we could expect a breakout in that zone in order to reach the support level of 93.75 in coming days. Anyway, a rebound at current levels, will unleash a strong bullish reaction above the resistance level at 95.74.

The USDX continues to deal with the dynamic resistance offered by the 200 SMA on the H1 chart and now, the Index will test the support level of 94.63 again in order to do a possible lower continuation towards 94.33. Currently, the bias is bearish and long trades are risky. So, we should wait for bearish pattern formation in order to ride the intraday trend.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.74 / 96.97 Daily chart's support levels: 94.66 / 93.75 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.15 / 95.71 H1 chart's support levels: 94.63 / 94.33
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.63, take profit is at 94.33, and stop loss is at 94.93.

 

[abu85]

Technical analysis of USDX for June 16, 2015

The soft US data pushed the USDX below 100Dema. The Index closed below that. The US Dollar Index has been consolidating at 100Dema, finally closed below that level. Dollar bulls managed to hold the previous support. TheEmpire State Manufacturing Survey published on June 2015 indicates that business conditions worsened slightly for New York manufacturers. The general business condition index dropped by five points to -2.0. This index has been hovering near zero for the past three months, suggesting that activity has remained flat since April. Besides, manufacturing output fell unexpectedly. The strong dollar puts pressure on the US manufacturing sector. Analysts had forecasted 0.2% , but readings produced a drop of 0.2 %. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the USDX is trading higher at today's Asian session. The immediate resistance is seen at 95.00. The support is found at 94.70 and 94.30. The Index has been hitting lower highs and lower lows. We recommend intraday selling below 94.60 with targets at 94.40, 94.30, 94.00, and 93.75. The panic is likely to be triggered below 94.30. The strong support levels are found at 92.30 and 92.00.

 

[abu85]

USDX technical analysis for June 17, 2015

The US Dollar Index remains in a short-term bearish trend but also holds above the critical support at 94.50 and 93.10. With the FOMC meeting taking place tonight, the US dollar is expected to see some price volatility and traders should be patient until Yellen's speech.

Red line - trend line resistance The US Dollar Index is trading below the trend-line resistance and below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. The short-term trend is bearish. Resistance is seen at 95.04 by the trendline and the next resistance is expected by the cloud at 95.25. Support is found at 94.50 and then at 93.10.

The weekly chart remains weak as there are increased chances of a push lower towards 90 if support at 93.10 gets broken. However, bulls have one last chance to reverse the current bearish trend. A breakout above 96.65 is likely to increase chances for resumption of the uptrend to new highs.

 

[abu85]

Daily analysis of USDX for June 17, 2015

The USDX is still dealing with the support level of 94.66, because the Index wants to do a rebound at current levels in order to ride the overall bullish trend in the medium and long term. Also, the 200 SMA is still slightly bullish, so the view is pointing to the upwards. However, be cautious with a possible breakout of the level of 94.66.

On the H1 chart, the USDX is showing a sideways structure below the resistance level of 95.15. This could be an indication of strength in the short-term bearish bias, but we should see first a confirmation, which would be the breakout of the support level of 94.63, in order to look for new lows below a zone around 94.33.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.74 / 96.97 Daily chart's support levels: 94.66 / 93.75 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.15 / 95.71 H1 chart's support levels: 94.63 / 94.33 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support is seen at 94.63, take profit is at 94.33, and stop loss is at 94.93.

 

[abu85]

Daily analysis of USDX for June 18, 2015

In the daily chart, the USDX finally broke the support level at 94.66 and now it's looking to test the next low of 93.75, which is a key zone on this time frame. However, we should be cautious with the current short trades in the mid term, because bulls could come again when the Index tests the level of 93.14.

The short-term outlook is very bearish, because the 200 SMA in the H1 chart turned bearish. Also, the USDX is currently forming a lower low pattern below the resistance level at 94.33. Targets are placed around the levels of 93.88 and 93.53 now. The downside is still there and bulls have no chances to dominate the intraday trend.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 94.66 / 95.74 Daily chart's support levels: 93.75 / 93.14 H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.33 / 94.63 H1 chart's support levels: 93.88 / 93.53 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.88, take profit is at 93.53, and stop loss is at 94.24.

 

[abu85]

USDX technical analysis for June 18, 2015

The US Dollar Index was rejected in the resistance area yesterday and fell towards new lows. Comments of J.Yellen after the FOMC meating weakened the US dollar and this was a bearish signal implying that we could see a deeper correction of the greenback over the coming weeks.

Green line - trend line resistance Red line- broken support, now resistance The US Dollar Index reached the Ichimoku cloud and got rejected. The price continues to be in a bearish trend as long as it is below the Ichimoku cloud. We continue to see lower lows and lower highs. Next important support is at 93.10. Unless bulls manage to reverse the US Dollar Index above 95.20, we should expect more selling pressures to come over the coming weeks.

The weekly chart has become even more bearish with the price trading below the kijun-sen support and heading towards a low of 93.10. A breakout below that level will increase chances of a deeper correction towards the cloud support and 50% retracement at 90.

 

[abu85]

Daily analysis of USDX for June 19, 2015

The USDX is still dominated by bears on the daily chart, because currently it is testing the support level of 93.75. Also, the Index could start to do a rebound at current levels, which could be extended above the resistance level of 94.66. Anyway, a breakout of a low around the level of 93.14 will open the door to test the 200 SMA.

On the H1 chart, the sturcture remains untouched, because bears still present and the USDX is currently forming a bearish pattern in order to break the support level of 93.88. In case of success, it would be expected to fall until the 93.53 zone. The MACD indicator is reaching overbought levels, but the correction could extend a bit more.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 94.66 / 95.74 Daily chart's support levels: 93.75 / 93.14 H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.33 / 94.63 H1 chart's support levels: 93.88 / 93.53 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.88, take profit is at 93.53, and stop loss is at 94.24.

 

[abu85]

USDX technical analysis for June 19, 2015

The US Dollar Index bounced strongly upwards towards 94.50 after reaching as low as 93.56 despite reaching a new low below 94.50 yesterday. A trend remains bearish as the price is still below the red trend-line resistance and below the Ichimoku cloud.

Red line- resistance Green line - downward sloping trend line TheUS Dollar Index is heading for lower lows and lower highs. The price is below resistance of 94.50-94.60 which was previous support. The price is bouncing towards the cloud and trend-line resistance, but I believe we are most probably going to see a rejection and a push towards new lows near 92.50.

In the weekly chart, the price is testing the kijun-sen support. Important support is seen at 93.50 now. If it gets broken, I expect a deep correction at least towards 92.50. My most probable target is at 90 as this is also the 50% retracement.

 

[abu85]

Technical analysis of USDX for June 22, 2015
The USDX still experience pressure after the FOMC meeting. The pair is moving towards lower highs and lower lows. The intraday support is found at 93.90 and 93.50. We have been recommending selling at 92.50 and 92.00. Data on US home sales, durable goods orders, and final GDP is due today. Traders eye existing home sales data. The European summit is another event to watch during today's session. Economists expect the US housing market to expand at a slow pace. The improvement in the labor market will support the housing market in coming months.

 

[abu85]

USDX technical analysis for June 22, 2015

The US Dollar Index remains below the resistance trendline and the Ichimoku cloud confirming that at least the short-term trend remains bearish. The price got rejected at the trend-line resistance. Now it is testing important lows of the previous week again.

Green line - trend line resistance Red line - previous support now resistance The US Dollar Index is below the Ichimoku cloud and below two resistance trendlines. Last Friday, we saw a bounce towards the resistance line at 94.50 by the kijun-sen. As long as the price is below the green trendline, the short-term trend will remain bearish. Support is found at 93.50. If it gets broken, I would expect acceleration downwards 92.50.

The weekly chart remains bearish as last week's candle closed below the kijun-sen (yellow line) indicator. Next important support is seen at 93.10. Breaking below that level will push the Index towards 92.75-92.50 at least with most probable target around 90 where the 50% retracement and the cloud support is found.