USD dominates against major currencies at Monday's section. Manufacturing data boosted the US dollar bulls. Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded for the 29th consecutive month in May. The overall economy grew for the 72nd consecutive month, the nation's supply executives said in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report. The USDX is at 61.8 the fib level 97.78 from a peak to a low of 93.37. The 50Dsma has been providing support for 4 days. In case of daily close above 97.80, bulls will aim at a new high of 103.00. For intraday session, fresh buying is available above 97.80 with a target at 98.10 initially, 98.60 and 99.60 later. Earlier, we forecasted a break from the inverse head and shoulder aiming at 99.40, we advise the same today. Support is found at 96.60. USD/JPY The pair reached a high of 125.05 at today's Asian session. The pair has been moving higher in a correctional manner for 7 consecutivedays. It is an excellent move after a month of consolidation. The pair breached a 5-month consolidation range on the higher side. The nearest resistance is seen at 125.79 (December 2002 high). We expect the pair to touch 128.00/129.00. For an intraday session, fresh buying is available above 125.10 with targets at 125.50 and 125.80.
The US Dollar Index is still in a bullish trend inside the upward sloping channel. My short-term view is bullish as long as the price is above 96.50. I believe we should expect one more new high at least before a larger pullback.
Black lines = bullish channel The US Dollar Index is above the cloud support and inside the bullish channel. Support is at 97 and the next one is seen at 96.50 by the cloud. I believe we are near today's lows. So, I prefer open long positions at current levels with stops near support line at 96.50 or near 96.80 for short-term traders.
The weekly chart remains bullish as the price is above the tenkan-sen indicator. The US Dollar Index has reached an important low at 93.10. As long as we trade above this level, we should expect new highs towards 102-103 at least. A breakout below 93.10 will push the Index towards the cloud support at 86-87.
Daily analysis of USDX for June 02, 2015
On daily chart, the USDX is still trading higher and looking to test the resistance zone around 98.08. There is a higher high pattern formation on the chart. That's why we would like to remain long on the Index, as long as it stays above the support level of 96.97 in this time frame. The 200 SMA is still bullish and the upside is still strong.
Monday's session was slow, but bullish for the USDX in an intraday basis, because the Index is looking to break the resistance level of 97.60 in order to reach the resistance zone of 98.05. That resistance remains very strong in the short term basis and the Index is looking to do consolidation above it during this week.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 98.08 / 98.64 Daily chart's support levels: 96.97 / 95.74 H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.60 / 98.06 H1 chart's support levels: 97.16 / 96.90 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.60, take profit is at 98.06, and stop loss is at 97.16.
The US Dollar Index did not hold the short-term support and is heading towards our initial target at the 61.8% retracement. We are trading below the 50% retracement. I remain bullish in the longer-term and I expect the trend to reverse higher from the 61.8% retracement.
The US Dollar Index has broken below the cloud support and is trading around the 50% retracement. This could be a new bearish flag. Support is at 94.90 and if my bullish scenario is true, we should see reversal from that level or earlier.
The weekly chart is neutral as the price is trapped between the tenkan-sen and the kijun-sen indicators. Support is at 94 on a weekly basis but I believe it will not be a good sign if we reach that level. Resistance is at 97.80. So, a break above this area will be a very bullish sign that will confirm the important long-term low at 93.10 as a point of the trend reversal.
The US Dollar Index has reversed upwards from the 61.8% retracement as expected. Yesterday's lows are expected to be tested. An apticipated upward bounce came, but it is weaker than we had expected. I prefer to stay neutral and change to bullish once we break out above resistance of 95.85 .
Blue line = trend line resistance The US Dollar Index not only bounced off the 61.8% retracement, but also broke out above the downward sloping blue trend-line resistance. We could see a move higher towards the important resistance at 96.60 where the lower cloud boundary is found. Support at yesterday's lows is very important as a breakout below it could mean that the bigger picture correction is not over and 93.10 will be in danger.
The weekly chart is showing signs of reversal. Unless bulls manage to push the Index towards 96.50 today, the weekly candle will give a sell reversal signal and will put 93.10 in danger. Currently, I remain neutral. My longer-term view is bullish. This does not mean we cannot make a deeper correction over the coming weeks towards 92.50. So patience is advised and no hurry moves.
The US Dollar index has bounced as we expected from the 61.8% retracement of the rise from 93.10 to 97.80. But it has found strong resistance at the Ichimoku cloud in the area of 96-97. The upward bounce has reached the 61.8% retracement of the decline from a high of 97.80 to a low of 94.64. A bearish reversal looks very possible.
The Dollar index bounced as expected and is getting rejected at the cloud resistance and at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This is a bearish sign. This has bigger bearish implications as this reversal could be the start of a bigger decline below 93.10. If the recent lows at 94.64 are broken we should expect a move even towards the 90 price area.
In case this scenario comes true, a break below 93.10 will signal a move towards the 50% retracement in the weekly chart as shown above. The price should be pushed towards the cloud support and 50% retracement at 90. Weekly support is at 94.10 and resistance is seen at 96.65.
Strong employment data from the US gave momentym to the US Dollar Index. The US Dollar Index hit a high of 96.91, but was unable to close above 50Dsma. The Index rejected at 50dsma on a closing basis twice . Mild bearish signals on the USDX and USD pairs were generated. The Index is forming a mild distribution pattern. Bulls must close above 96.55 today to erase the bearish view. On a daily basis, the Index must close above 97.80, which was 61.8 FB entire fall. The Index managed to close above 20Wsma. Support is found at 96.10 and 95.00.
The USDX will try to reach the resistance level of 96.97 during this week, because bulls are stronger than before now. But be cautious with that resistance, because the Index could face strong bearish reaction and fall to the support level at 95.74.
In the H1 chart, the USDX is consolidating above the 200 SMA with a higher high pattern formation. Now, the resistance level of 96.77 is the nearest obstacle, and if the bullish momentum is enough, the USDX will reach a high around the level of 97.23. The current fractal structure is already calling for the upside. The MACD indicator is entering at negative territory, so be cautious with this.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.97 / 98.08 Daily chart's support levels: 95.74 / 94.66 H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.77 / 97.23 H1 chart's support levels: 96.16 / 95.71 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.77, take profit is at 97.23, and stop loss is at 96.32.
The US Dollar Index has made a bearish reversal from the 61.8% retracement as we expected. It has reached the recent low and support in the area of 94.80-94.60. A beak below this level will increase the chances of new intermediate lows bleow 93.10.
The US Dollar Index is below the Ichimoku cloud. Gold was rejected at both the upper cloud boundary and at the 61.8% retracement. Yesterday, we got a bearish signal that warned bulls about it. On the other hand, bears want to break below 94.60 in order to put the level of 93.10 to the test.
The weekly chart remains bearish. Weekly support is at 93.90. If we close below that level this week, we should expect another round of US dollar selling and downward pressures towards 90 and the 50% retraceent.
In a daily chart, the USDX had bearish momentum during the monday's session. The Index is looking to test the support level of 94.66 again. By the way, a breakout of that zone would open the road to reach the next support located around the level of 93.75.
The short term-outlook is bearish for the USDX, because it found dynamic resistance at 200 SMA in the H1 chart. Now, it's forming bottom at the level of 95.15, where we could expect a corrective rebound in favor of the bearish bias. Anyway, if the Index does a breakout of that zone, it could reach 94.63.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.74 / 96.97 Daily chart's support levels: 94.66 / 93.75 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.71 / 96.16 H1 chart's support levels: 95.15 / 94.63 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.71, take profit is at 96.16, and stop loss is at 96.32.
