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Vivocom (MYR0.315): Securing ~MYR600m new jobs YTD

Vivocom’s 78.6%-owned indirect subsidiary, Vivocom Enterprise S/B (VESB), entered into a heads of agreement (HoA) with Green Ventures Development S/B to be the main contractor for a mixed development project on a piece of 3.11 ha land in Hulu Kinta, Perak. The estimated contract value is approximately MYR90m.
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Green Ventures was appointed as the developer for this project which has a GDV of MYR112m. Under the HoA, VESB will need to complete the construction of the whole development within 24 months after the launch.

Assuming a construction GP margin of 14% (FY15: 14.3%), this project could contribute MYR9.9m to its gross profit into FY18 (for its 78.6% stake).

Vivocom has secured about MYR598m new jobs YTD, forming 20% of the street’s MYR3b new job win assumption. It is widely believed that Vivocom will benefit from China Railway Construction Corp (CRCC)’s exposure in the domestic construction space. The street expects Vivocom to benefit from CRCC’s participation in the Gemas-Johor Baru double-track rail project and the Mentakab-Kuantan rail project.

Against the backdrop of strong jobs pipeline, the street is forecasting a 3-year 153% EPS CAGR for FY15-18. Brokers are bullish on the stock. There are two Buys with a mean target price of MYR0.68.

At current price, the stock is trading at 14.3x consensus FY16 EPS of 2.2sen but a more compelling FY17 PER of 5.3x. Key parameter to monitor is the value of new job win which is crucial to confirm the bullish expectations on the stock.

Fr Maybank IB
 
End-Day Review & Analysis

VIVOCOM rebounded and closed 1.0 sen higher at 32.5 sens after light trading as investors took advantage of the current favorable prices and fresh fundamental to add further positions.

Total volume was moderate at 33.75M shares.

News of VIVOCOM securing a fresh new job worth MYR 90 million, boosting its YTD order book value to MYR 600 million, supported fresh buying interests.

Today, the marketplace was also flushed with talks and and speculation that VIVOCOM may have secured several large jobs wins.

The whispering was that the news would be announced pretty soon.

Today's upward price rebound appears to be extremely constructive after yesterday's freak 1MBD inspired sell-off that took many investors by surprise.

That is the nature of markets. People tend to panic easily when they are sitting on small profits and are always calm and collect when they are having losses.

Yesterday's jittery selling took many players out when they panicked and took moderate profits.

Many lost their positions and I am convinced that they are buying today to get back into VIVOCOM.

To be very frank, I was summoned to a 2-hour meeting by my high-nett-worth friends(kakis) and was ask about the situation following yesterday's episode.

We concluded the meeting by agreeing that "there is now a light at the end of this tunnel and this light is not going to be from an oncoming train!"

Generally, most traders are now looking forward to the Q1PAT results now anticipated to be release on 18th May instead of 16th May.

Traders are now mixed on the PAT numbers.
Some are calling for RM 16-17 M. They say they would be positive if this was the number.
Other are projecting higher at RM17.5-18 and would be bullish if their call is accurate.
Other savvy analysts are talking about RM 18.5-19.0, and are expecting a very significant positive impact on VIVOCOM prices should their views are spot-on!

At the close today, the Quantitative Algorithm signals have reverted to bullish divergence and indicated that the minor weakness yesterday was just a flash in the pan.
 
Vivocom Top 6 up 1c at 32.5c vol 33.7M

Solid rebound by Vivocom after heavy panic selldown caused by 1MDB default.

If not, Vivocom share price would be trading solidly at 34c - 34.5c levels.

What doesn't kill you will make you stronger there's a saying.

There have been two meltdowns, one in February when Vivocom shares plunged to 22.5c with volume of 107M, and yesterday to 31.5c with volume of 117M.

Both times Vivocom surged back solidly and strongly.

Why. Mainly as a result of its strongly loyal shareholders who believe in Vivocom's long term future and solid fundamentals.

Also the fact that Vivocom's fiercely loyal and steadfast band of supporters are ever growing at a very fast rate.

Vivocom is now seen as a genuine GENTLEMAN stock with promising prospects based on its order book n sexy CHINA FDI story.

There is growing belief and confidence that it is most definitely not a pump & dump counter.

Market rumours are that in the next few weeks, two foreign Companies will be issuing reports highlighting Vivocom.

In their eyes, Vivocom is worth covering due to the fact it is the biggest Ace company in Malaysia with superb liquidity and volumes ever seen sustained over a 7 months period on a consistent basis.

The foreigners simply love Vivocom's high volumes and incredible liquidity.

Such reports are easily worth another 6c to 8c to the stock. They will be circulated to both their clients and funds locally and internationally.

The above not withstanding, Vivocom in any case market talk has been widely touting the stock as easily charging to 48c - 50c levels once it's Q1 results have been released, expected in the mid to 3rd week of May.

Vivocom
 
Mid-Day Review & Analysis

VIVOCOM opened higher at 33.0 sens and drifted lower on moderate liquidation selling pressure and settled the morning at 31.5, off 1.0 sen from previously.

Total volume for the morning amounted to 25.19 M shares.

Sellers were the aggressors, giving 81.7% of total trades to buyers this morning.

Despite that, buyers are holding firm, absorbing all that sellers has to offer.

News among traders that two foreign investment entities would be issue positive calls on VIVOCOM in the coming week, encouraged buying at current levels.

Currently, investors are focused on the Q1 profits results due on the third week of May and also looking for further news on fresh orders that would swell VIVOCOM order book.

Price volatility has increased over the last few days and this is expected to continue as
the uptrend expands.

The Quantitative Algorithm signal closed the morning in negative convergence and indicated that immediate prices may be headed for some band trading or would resume it upward momentum.
We would know the real answer at the close today.
 
Mid-Day Review & Forecast.

VIVOCOM ended the morning slightly higher after very quiet trading ahead of the long-weekend.

A late-wave of aggressive buying with good volume lifted values from their daily lows

Traders attributed these buying to speculation that VIVOCOM may have secured further very contracts to be announced soon. Heard to range from RM150M - RM200M.

Last week , VIVOCOM announced it secured an order for RM90M.

Prices ranged from 32.5-31.5 sens and settled at 32.5up 1 sen from previously.

Total volume was low at 10.07 M shares.

At current levels, large sellers appeared to have lost their appetite to unwind positions.

The current trading situation now resembles the "calm-before-the -storm".

From a strictly technical perspective, it looks like the upward bullish momentum is about to re-emerge.

Underlying sentiment remain strong ahead of the 1Q profits results anticipated to be released on 18 May in stead of 16 May.

Price Forecast:
Prices are expected to be buoyant and be headed to test the most recent-highs at 34.0 sens sooner-than-expected.

Next upward price-target is seen at 38.0-40.0 levels.

The Quantitative Algorithm signal end the morning bullish and signal the start of an upward cycle.
 
End-Day Review & Price Forecast

VIVOCOM closed 1 sen higher at 32.5 after a late-round of buying lifted values back to its intraday's day's highs.

Again this was an inside-day with prices hovering within the previous day's trading range of 31.5 to 33.0.

Over the last three days, prices fluctuated around the 31.5-33.0 levels, which is a recovery of fifty percent of the last Tuesday's sell-off lows.

The important technical thing to monitor in the coming week is can prices break upwards from this three-day consolidation high of 33.0 sens.

If it succeeds, we may get to see prices moving higher to test the 2016-high at 34.0 sens.

What happens if the 34.0 sens level is punched through successfully?

Well, in the event of such an eventuality, we can expect to see some volatile trading with higher-than-normal volume that would drive prices upwards to establish a new-2016 highs and at the same time form the peak of the third-wave of the five-wave bullish cycle at 38-40 sens.

The daily Quantitative Algorithm trading signals ended the week positive and suggests further firmer trading conditions with an upward bias.
 
Vivocom’s unique position presents compelling risk, reward — Analysts
Borneo Post Online***April 30

The research arm of MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd (MIDF Research) in its initiation report of Vivocom, noted that its unique operating model as a project manager and the subcontractor, minimises the risks of rigid project schedule, design variations and excessive approvals procedures and variations of construction design.

Currently, Vivocom are venturing into public housing to increase its track record for domestic public housing jobs,” it added.

Aside from that, Vivocom has a strong order book for heavy, civil, commercial and industrial engineering from China Railways Construction Corporation Ltd (CRCC) in Malaysia via a technical joint venture for project management and sub-contracting.

MIDF Research noted that while there is a risk of a slowdown in the construction sector due to policy reversal through the reduction of development expenditures by the governments of Malaysia and/or China, it anticipated a moderate degree of structural risk exposure.

Other risks in the stock include severe depletion in net working capital and structural risks pertain to contract provisions and definition especially on the role as a project management and a sub-contractor as well as the strength of the contractual covenants, such as projects that require specific technical capabilities such as railway engineering (signaling and telecommunication.)

MIDF Research noted that without the strong covenant and contract provision with clients and vendors, Vivocom would face a heightened risk of the vendors and suppliers exiting pre-maturely or unpredictability in supply or services for project execution.

Nevertheless, it pointed out that Vivocom has a strong pretax margin, positive operating cash flow, strong orderbook from joint venture strategy, and a steady recurring income from its telco segment.

“The total construction backlog is indicative of the success of its joint venture strategy with CRCC by acting as the project manager, sub-contractor or combination of both,” it opined.

Additionally, Vivocom enjoys steady recurring income from the rentals of 50 telecommunication assets nationwide with the three-year average contribution of RM25.4 million per annum on the back of an admirable 15 per cent net margin.

“The telco segment amounts to 21 per cent of its total revenue. Although, the growth of the telecommunication industry is sluggish; rentals from telecommunication assets are steady due to service provisions in contractual billings and network coverage,” it said.

Looking ahead, the research team believed that Vivocom would be able to clinch heavy, civil and heavy construction packages such as the M101 Skywheel Tower in Kuala Lumpur, in upcoming quarters.

Vivocom is also bound to be driven by the ‘One Belt One Road’ (OBOR) policy via its partnership with CRCC.

Aside from that, Vivocom has attracted institutional foreign shareholding amounting to 5.4 per cent currently, MIDF Research said.

“Moreover, Beijing Construction Group has expressed interest to participate in their equity capital structure as well as appointing Vivocom as their local project delivery partner (PDP),” it added.

Overall, MIDF Research initiates its coverage of Vivocom ‘buy’ recommendation.
 
Vivocom 0069 last Friday, Top 3 @ 32.5c up 1c volume 41.3m shares.

Vivocom largest ACE company in KLSE with mkt capitalisation of RM1.13BN.

Consistent market leader in volume with fantastic liquidity for past 8 months since September 2015.

Market talk is that Q1 reports will be super strong n solid. Price n mkt moving!

Heard Q1 reports out in week from 16th to 20th May.

That means only 9 to 14 working days.

Majority view is that it is expected to GAP UP to over 40c n beyond.

Can expect stock RERATING following Q1 reports release.

Also heard more contract wins in the pipeline, to be announced within days.

32.5c - 35c will soon become bargain prices after GAP UP.

VIVOCOM CHARGING UP n AWAY!!!
 
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