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Euro Tests Lows as US Jobs Data Fuels Dollar Rally (March 24, 2024)


The EUR/USD currency pair is facing renewed downward pressure, trading near 1.0820 as of today, March 24, 2024. This follows a sharp decline after the release of strong US jobs data, further solidifying the dollar's dominance.

Fresh Data Ignites Dollar Strength

• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a robust nonfarm payrolls increase of 512,000 jobs in March, significantly exceeding analyst expectations.
• This data point suggests a resilient US labor market and strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary tightening policy.
• The expectation of further interest rate hikes makes the US dollar a more attractive asset for investors seeking higher returns.

Eurozone Concerns Weigh Heavy

• The Eurozone continues to grapple with economic headwinds. The ongoing war in Ukraine and its potential impact on energy supplies are causing anxiety.
• The European Central Bank (ECB) remains hesitant to implement aggressive interest rate hikes due to lingering concerns about the Eurozone's economic recovery. This divergence in monetary policy from the Fed further weakens the Euro.

Technical Analysis Hints at a Downtrend

• Technical indicators on the EUR/USD chart are currently flashing bearish signals. A break below the key support level of 1.0800 could trigger further selling pressure.
• Some analysts predict the pair could even fall towards the parity level (1.0000) in the near future if the Eurozone's economic woes worsen.

Looking Ahead

The short-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish. The robust US jobs data and the Fed's hawkish stance are likely to keep the dollar strong. Eurozone developments and the ECB's next policy decision will also be crucial factors influencing the pair's direction.


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ICMarkets Direct Discount

Slash Commissions Further: Enjoy a significant discount, bringing MT4/MT5 commissions down to a miniscule $5.5 per 1.00 Lot round turn from original $7.

CTrader and TradingView Users Rejoice!: Special perks extend to you too, with commissions whittled down to a mere $5.5 per 1.00 Lot round turn from original $6.

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MARKET WRAP: STOCKS, BONDS, COMMODITIES


On Friday, the U.S. Nasdaq 100 gained 19 points (+0.10%) to a record close of 18,339. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 305 points (-0.77%) to 39,475, and the S&P 500 was down 7 points (-0.14%) to 5,234.

On a weekly basis, all the three major indexes closed at all-time highs.

Technology and utilities stock sectors posted gains, while real estate, financial and consumer discretionary sectors were under pressure.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped 6.9 basis point to 4.202%.

Nvidia (NVDA) charged 3.12% to $942.89, a record closing level.

Alphabet (GOOGL) was up 2.15%.

FedEx (FDX) soared 7.35%, as the parcel delivery firm's quarterly earnings beat expectations.

On the other hand, Nike (NKE) lost 6.90% after the sportswear company issued a sales warning.

Lululemon Athletica (LULU) tumbled 15.80% as the athletic-apparel designer gave a downbeat result guidance.

In Europe, the DAX 40 rose 0.15%, the FTSE 100 gained 0.61%, while the CAC 40 fell 0.34%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures dropped $0.44 to $80.63 a barrel.

Gold price retreated $19 to $2,160 an ounce after hitting a record high in the prior session.


MARKET WRAP: FOREX


The U.S. dollar strengthened further against other major currencies, with the dollar index climbing to 104.41, extending its rebound to a second week.

EUR/USD fell 53 pips to 1.0807. Germany's Ifo business climate index rose to 87.8 in March, exceeding an expected reading of 86.0.

USD/JPY declined 25 pips to 151.36.

GBP/USD dropped 59 pips to 1.2597. U.K. data showed that retail sales were unchanged on month in February (vs -0.5% expected).

AUD/USD lost 58 pips to 0.6511.

USD/CHF dipped 11 pips to 0.8964.

USD/CAD gained 77 pips to 1.3606. Canada's retail sales dropped 0.3% on month in January (vs -0.1% expected).

Bitcoin fell a further 2% to $63,800 on Friday, but rebounded to $66,200 over the weekend.

 

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MARKET WRAP: STOCKS, BONDS, COMMODITIES


On Wednesday, U.S. stocks regained traction, lifting the S&P 500 by 44 points (+0.86%) to a record closing level of 5,248. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 477 points (+1.22%) to 39,760, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 70 points (+0.39%) to 18,280.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slid 4.6 basis points to 4.188%.

Utilities, real estate, financial and industrial stock sectors led the market higher.

Nvidia (NVDA) fell 2.50%, posting a two-session decline.

Tesla (TSLA) rose 1.22%, extending its rally to a third session.

Merck (MRK) climbed 4.96%. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the drug-maker's WINREVAIR treatment for adults with pulmonary arterial hypertension.

At the same time, Moderna (MRNA), a biotech firm, gained 2.96%.

Cintas (CTAS) gained 8.25%. The maker of corporate uniforms raised its full-year result forecast.

Gamestop (GME) tumbled 15.20%. The video-game retailer's quarterly sales fell year on year.

European stocks also closed higher, with the DAX 40 rising 0.50%, the CAC 40 up 0.25%, and the FTSE 100 up 0.01%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures added $0.11 to $81.73 a barrel.

Gold price climbed $15 to $2,194 an ounce.


MARKET WRAP: FOREX


The U.S. dollar index was steady at 104.30.

EUR/USD dipped 3 pips to 1.0827.

USD/JPY fell 23 pips to 151.32.

GBP/USD gained 14 pips to 1.2639.

AUD/USD was little changed at 0.6533. This morning, Australia's data showed that retail sales increased 0.3% on month in February (as expected).

USD/CHF stepped up 5 pips to 0.9043, while USD/CAD declined 16 pips to 1.3566.

Bitcoin saw a volatile session. It once surged up to $71,789 moments after the U.S. stock market opened, but then swiftly pulled back down to $68,369. It closed the session at $69,435.

 

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EUR/USD Analysis: A Tug of War Between Central Banks

As we approach the end of March 2024, the EUR/USD pair remains a battleground for traders, with key levels at 1.07 and 1.10 drawing significant attention. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential rate cuts are the primary drivers of volatility, as investors weigh the impact of geopolitical factors and policy decisions on currency strength.

The euro has shown resilience at the 1.07 support level, suggesting a strong buying interest beneath. However, should it break below this threshold, we could witness a considerable sell-off in the US dollar. Conversely, a break above the 1.10 resistance level, near the 200-Week EMA, could signal bullish momentum for the euro.

Traders are keeping a close eye on the ECB’s response to the German economy’s recessionary pressures, which could prompt rate cuts and influence the euro’s trajectory. Similarly, the Fed’s hawkish stance is expected to underpin the US dollar, although three anticipated rate cuts this year could alter the landscape.

In summary, the EUR/USD pair is expected to continue its choppy and range-bound behavior, with the potential for sharp movements if either of the critical levels is breached. As always, traders should remain vigilant and responsive to the latest economic data and central bank communications.

 

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MARKET WRAP: STOCKS, BONDS, COMMODITIES


On Thursday, U.S. stocks came under pressure, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 375 points (-0.98%) to 38,085, the S&P 500 down 23 points (-0.46%) to 5,048, and the Nasdaq 100 down 96 points (-0.55%) to 17,430.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield charged 5.0 basis points higher to 4.704%.

U.S. data showed that gross domestic product growth slowed to 1.6% on quarter in the first quarter (vs +2.3% expected, +3.4% in the prior quarter). The latest initial jobless claims declined to 207,000 (vs 213,000 expected).

At the same time, core personal consumption expenditure price index increased 3.7% on quarter (vs +3.0% expected, +2.0% in the prior quarter).

Basic materials, energy and industrial stock sectors outperformed the market, while technology, financial and healthcare sectors were under pressure.

Meta Platforms (META) slid 10.56%, as the tech giant gave a weaker-than-expected second-quarter result guidance.

International Business Machines (IBM) fell 8.25%. The company's first-quarter results missed expectations. It also announced an acquisition of HashiCorp (HCP) for $6.4 billion. HashiCorp climbed 4.49%.

Southwest Airlines (LUV) dropped 6.96%. The airline posted lower-than-expected quarterly earnings, adding that it will take fewer aircraft deliveries from Boeing.

On the other hand, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) rose 6.33% and Newmont Mining (NEM) jumped 12.46%, as investors were encouraged by their quarterly results.

In after-market hours, after reporting quarterly results, Microsoft (MSFT) rose 4%, Alphabet (GOOGL) jumped 12%, while Intel (INTC) slid 8%.

European stock indexes closed mixed. The DAX 40 fell 0.95%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.93%, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.48%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures gained $0.98 (+1.18%) to $83.79 a barrel.

Gold price rebounded $15 to $2,331 an ounce.


MARKET WRAP: FOREX


The U.S. dollar softened against most other major currencies except the yen. The dollar index slipped to 105.57.

USD/JPY advanced further to another 34-year high of 155.75.

EUR/JPY also rose to 167.02, a 16-year high.

EUR/USD rose 31 pips to 1.0728. In Germany, the Gfk consumer confidence index improved to -24.8 in May (vs -25.8 expected).

GBP/USD gained 49 pips to 1.2510, and AUD/USD increased 20 pips to 0.6517.

USD/CHF fell 27 pips to 0.9122, and USD/CAD dropped 46 pips to 1.3654.

Bitcoin once slipped below $63,000 before rebounding to $65,000.

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MARKET WRAP: STOCKS, BONDS, COMMODITIES

On Friday, U.S. stock indexes posted gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 153 points (+0.40%) to 38,239, the S&P 500 up 51 points (+1.02%) to 5,099, and the Nasdaq 100 up 287 points (+1.65%) to 17,718.

U.S. data showed that inflation remains firm ("sticky"), with the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price growth, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge, remained at 2.8% on year in March (vs 2.7% expected).

Technology, consumer discretionary and basic materials stock sectors led the market higher.

Alphabet (GOOGL) soared 10.22%. The tech giant reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and announced its first-ever dividend of $0.20 per share.

Microsoft (MSFT) climbed 1.82%. The software giant's quarterly results exceeded expectations with its cloud business showing robust growth.

Snap (SNAP) surged 27.63% after the social media platform posted upbeat quarterly revenue and user-growth figures.

On the other hand, Intel (INTC) tumbled 9.20%, as investors were disappointed by the chip maker's profit guidance.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) lost 2.78%. The oil giant's first-quarter earnings failed to please investors.

European stocks also closed higher, with the DAX 40 rising 1.36%, the CAC 40 up 0.89%, and the FTSE 100 up 0.75%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil futures rose $0.28 to 83.85 a barrel.

Gold price gained $7 to $2,338 an ounce.


MARKET WRAP: FOREX

The U.S. dollar index advanced to 106.01 as inflation showed no signs of easing.

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady while showing no intentions of hiking rates further. As a result, the yen hit multi-decade lows against the dollar, with USD/JPY bouncing 1.8% to 158.44.

Traders are watching closely if USD/JPY striking the level of 160 would trigger intervention by the Japanese government.

EUR/USD fell 35 pips to 1.0694.

GBP/USD dropped 21 pips to 1.2492.

AUD/USD gained 15 pips to 0.6532.

USD/CHF rose 20 pips to 0.9140, and USD/CAD was up 12 pips to 1.3667.

Bitcoin continued to show a lack of traction, as it dipped below $63,000 over the weekend.

ICMarkets Direct Discount

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MARKET WRAP: STOCKS, BONDS, COMMODITIES

On Monday, U.S. stocks rebounded further, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 146 points (+0.38%) to 38,386, the S&P 500 up 16 points (+0.32%) to 5,116, and the Nasdaq 100 up 64 points (+0.36%) to 17,782.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreated 6.0 basis points to 4.609%.

Consumer discretionary, utilities (XLU) and real estate stock sectors led the market higher.

Tesla (TSLA) popped 15.81%, boosted by media reports that the electric-vehicle maker reached a mapping deal with Chinese tech giant Baidu for its “full self driving” (FSD) product in China. Baidu (BIDU) closed 5.62% higher.

Apple (AAPL) climbed 2.48%. The tech giant was upgraded to "outperform" at research firm Bernstein.

ON Semiconductor (ON) rose 4.06%, and Domino's Pizza (DPZ) climbed 5.62%, as both companies posted better-than-expected quarterly results.

On the other hand, AMC Entertainment (AMC) slid 11.14%, as the company said it expects a decline in first-quarter sales.

Regarding U.S. economic data, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index eased to -14.5 in April (vs -11.0 expected).

In Europe, the DAX 40 fell 0.24%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.29%, while the FTSE 100 added 0.09%.

U.S. WTI crude-oil declined $1.11 (-1.32%) to $82.74 a barrel.

Gold price slipped $2 to $2,335 an ounce.


MARKET WRAP: FOREX

The U.S. dollar index fell to 105.62 amid high volatility in the yen. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

USD/JPY shot up to 160.21 in Asian trading hours, a fresh 34-year high, before plunging swiftly to 154.52 and then rebounding to 156.34.

Most market participants suspected that Japanese authorities intervened in the market by buying the yen.

EUR/USD gained 29 pips to 1.0721. Germany's data showed that the inflation rate remained stable at 2.2% on year in April (vs 2.3% expected).

GBP/USD rose 72 pips to 1.2561.

AUD/USD climbed 34 pips to 0.6567.

USD/CHF slid 41 pips to 0.9100, and USD/CAD dipped 11 pips to 1.3658.

Bitcoin also saw volatile trading, as it sank down to $61,741 before working its way back to $63,800.


ICMarkets Direct Discount
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TradingView andcTrader: Commissions cut to $5.5 per lot, previously $6.
Standard Accounts: Benefit from a 0.4 pip discount on spreads for increased profits.

If you already have an account at ICMarkets. Send an email, 'I would like to ask you to put my icmarkets account under 66066 introducing broker.'

to [email protected]

For new accounts
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[v1forex]

ICMarkets Direct Discount
MT4/MT5: Now only $5.5 per lot, down from $7.
TradingView andcTrader: Commissions cut to $5.5 per lot, previously $6.
Standard Accounts: Benefit from a 0.4 pip discount on spreads for increased profits.

If you already have an account at ICMarkets. Send an email,

To: [email protected]
Subject: IB Change

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Thank you for your cooperation and prompt action regarding this matter.
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