GDMFX - Daily News

[GDM_FX]

The Forex Market: US Retail Sales – the day’s market mover

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Yesterday the United Stated posted a better than expected value for the Industrial Production indicator and the Pending Home Sales came out worse than anticipated but none of them created strong moves and the pair had a very slow session with price trading inside a range of about 40 pips.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action doesn’t provide much insight about future movement and we still believe that a more substantial retracement lower is in order before higher prices can be reached. The first support and also our first predicted target is 1.3740; the next level of importance to the downside is 1.3710 and resistance is located at 1.3865

Fundamental Outlook

It’s a busy day for the US and the most important event is the release of the Retail Sales scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. Analysts anticipate a small decrease from the previous 0.2% to 0.1% and lower numbers usually weaken the greenback because the retail sector is the most important part of overall consumer spending. At the same time, the US Producer Price Index is released, with an anticipated decrease from the previous 0.3% to 0.2%. Higher prices charged by producers will eventually be passed on to the consumer and that’s why this indicator is considered to have inflationary implications; higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar. The release of both indicators was previously delayed due to the US government shutdown.


GBP/USD

The pair had a more active day, a retracement lower occurred and our predicted target was missed by just a few pips. The US data was mixed but we consider this retracement to be mostly triggered by technical factors.

Technical Outlook

At the moment it seems like the pair is starting to move higher and it’s experiencing a bounce although support was not reached. This doesn’t mean that a break of support is out of the question and probably today will offer more hints about the bounce-or-break scenario. The market should be still considered ranging, with support located at 1.6115 and resistance at 1.6250.

Fundamental Outlook

The UK Net Lending to Individuals value is released at 09:30 am GMT, an indicator which is correlated with consumer spending because higher debt values suggest that both lenders and consumers feel comfortable about the economic conditions. Today’s anticipated number is 2.5B, an increase from the previous 1.6B. Of course, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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[GDM_FX]

The Forex Market: All eyes on the United States for Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement.

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Almost all US data released yesterday was worse than anticipated and this initially drove the pair higher but soon after, the Euro gave back all the gains and the greenback took control, finishing the day lower.

Technical Outlook

Our predicted target of 1.3740 was touched today and the fact that the pair fell despite bad US data shows us there is underlying Dollar strength and that lower prices may follow. Of course, the first task for the bears will be a break of 1.3740 support if the uptrend will reverse. The next and more important support is located at 1.3710 and resistance sits at 1.3830. A bounce higher is also a distinct possibility but today’s US events will have a high impact on the pair’s movement and the technical aspect is somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Consumer Price Index will be released today at 12:30 pm GMT with a decrease anticipated from the previous 1.5% to 1.2%. Due to this indicator’s direct relation with inflation, higher values than anticipated usually strengthen the greenback. However, the most important event of the day is scheduled at 6:00 pm GMT: the US Interest Rate decision and Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement. The Rate is not expected to change from the current 0.25% but Fed’s statement will contain insights about the reasons that stood behind the rate decision and possible hints about future direction so it will most likely be the day’s market mover.


GBP/USD

Some analysts consider the British economy can’t sustain Pound’s recent gains and as a result, yesterday the pair dropped for a third day, breaking the support located at 1.6115.

Technical Outlook

Early during yesterday’s trading session the pair broke the support located at 1.6115 and soon after, returned from below to test it, a fact which confirmed the break was a real one. The rest of the day was controlled by the bears and it seems a new trend is developing. The Relative Strength Index is very close to oversold territory on an hourly and even four hour chart so moves higher are also possible.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic or financial releases for today so the pair will mostly be driven by the US events and by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the best forex broker.

 

[GDM_FX]

The Forex Market: Ending the week under bears’ control.

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: The Euro severely weakened yesterday against most of its counterparts on the back of a much worse than anticipated value of the German Retail Sales. On top of that, an estimate of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index was also lower than anticipated, contributing to the pair’s downfall.

Technical Outlook

Support levels were broken decisively yesterday while the pair moved almost 130 pips to the downside and at the moment the bears are in control. However, yesterday’s sell off is likely to have a retracement higher, especially considering the clear oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart. The next support sits at 1.3480 but it is unlikely to be touched today; instead, we anticipate a touch from below of the level located at 1.3650 or a slow day in terms of distance traveled by the pair.

Fundamental Outlook

French and Italian banks will be closed today, celebrating All Saints Day and no economic indicators are released by the Euro Zone. At 2:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index comes out, with an anticipated value of 55.3, a small decrease from the previous 56.2. This is a leading indicator of economic health focused on the manufacturing sector and higher numbers than anticipated usually strengthen the greenback, driving the pair lower.


GBP/USD

UK’s House Price Index released yesterday was slightly better than anticipated and the pair had a pretty slow day, with a range of about 60 pips but price moved slowly to the upside.

Technical Outlook

The fact that yesterday the sellers didn’t manage to create a lower low does not shift our bearish bias and doesn’t change much in the overall picture. The pair is still headed towards the support located at 1.5915 but this target is not likely to be touched today unless some unexpected developments take place.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom will release today the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index which is expected to decrease slightly from the previous 56.7 to 56.3. The indicator comes out at 09:30 am GMT and usually better numbers than anticipated strengthen the Pound. The US indicator with the same name will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the best forex broker.

 

[GDM_FX]

 

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[GDM_FX]

Forex news: German ZEW economic survey steals the headline

EUR/USD
Forex news: Although we anticipated a ranging day, yesterday the pair moved to the upside for almost the entire duration of the trading session and resistance was surpassed. The rise was not spectacular, but was steady and the bears couldn’t reverse it until late in the day.

Technical Outlook
Price moved above 1.3495 but it seems to have been stopped by 1.3540 resistance; also the Relative Strength Index on a hourly chart is signaling an overbought condition. Taking these two factors into consideration, we anticipate a move lower towards the first support located at 1.3450. This level is more representative for the hourly price action and offers better support than 1.3480 which remains an important level from a four hour chart and daily perspective. An important level remains 1.3495 as immediate support and first resistance is now located at 1.3540.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important event of the day is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment scheduled at 10:00 am GMT. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 275 German investors and professional analysts who are highly informed due to the nature of their jobs. This adds weight to the survey and makes it a potential market mover. Today’s expected number is 54.6, an increase from the previous 52.8; better than anticipated numbers are usually beneficial for the Euro.


GBP/USD
Yesterday’s trading was mixed, with price oscillating above and below 1.6115 but neither side managed to impose their will decisively.

Technical Outlook
The picture is still blurry and the battle for 1.6115 is still waging on. The Relative Strength Index is curving to the downside after almost reaching and overbought condition and this warns about a potential move to the down side but indecision rules the market at the moment. Our view on the pair is neutral, waiting for a clear break of 1.6115 which may generate an extended move.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases for the day so price action will be mostly influenced by technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan
The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[GDM_FX]

The Forex Market: A busy day ahead. Volatility almost guaranteed

EUR/USD
The Forex Market: Although the German ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator was a potential market mover, the fact that it came out with exactly the same value as anticipated made market participants lose interest for its release. As a result the pair had mixed direction for the entire day.

Technical Outlook
During yesterday’s trading session the pair touched the support located at 1.3495 as well as the resistance represented by 1.3540. The fact that EUR/USD was rejected higher by support and didn’t continue to move towards 1.3450 doesn’t mean that a break of resistance will follow. On an hourly chart price tried several times to break 1.3540 resistance and failed so probably if this attempt fails too, we will witness the predicted move into 1.3450 support.

Fundamental Outlook
Today is the busiest day of the week from a fundamental perspective and the first indicator released is the German Producer Price index which shows the change in prices charged by producers for their goods and services. The release is scheduled at 07:00 am GMT and the anticipated value is 0.1%, a decrease from the previous 0.3%. Better than anticipated figures are usually beneficial for the Euro.

At 1:30 pm GMT the United States announce the Consumer Price Index which is the primary gauge of inflation. The forecast is 0.0%, a decrease from the previous 0.2% and better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar. At the same time the most important release of the day comes out: the US Retail Sales which are expected to increase from the previous -0.1% to 0.1%. Sales made at a retail level account for the major part of overall consumer spending and better numbers than anticipated suggest increased economic activity and a stronger Dollar.

Later at 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC Meeting Minutes are released, containing important insights into the members’ votes on the Interest Rate and also showing the economic conditions that influenced their decision.


GBP/USD
Price reversed sharply to the upside during yesterday’s trading session after a move that appeared to be a bounce lower off the resistance located at 1.6115. At the moment the pair is trading close to the mentioned level and neither the bulls nor the bears are in control.

Technical Outlook
We maintain the stance we had yesterday and we are neutral on the pair. Indecision is still very present in the market and all moves are quickly reversed. Once price moves away from the level of 1.6115, the next direction will be probably established but a lot depends on today’s important economic and financial events.

Fundamental Outlook
The US events have a direct impact on the pair and on top of that, the Bank of England will release at 09:30 am GMT the Minutes of their latest meeting, containing the breakdown of the members’ votes on the Interest Rate and on the Asset Purchase Facility. The event is likely to generate volatility and irregular movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[GDM_FX]

Forex News:The bulls refuse to give up control

EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair moved at a very slow pace yesterday and no major developments took place as volatility remained low for almost the entire day and price moved in a 50 pip range.

Technical Outlook
Although the session was very slow, the pair crawled above the resistance located at 1.3710 but we don’t consider this to be a decisive break which will generate additional moves to the upside. Price seems undecided about the next direction and the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is signaling an overbought condition which may trigger a retracement lower. However, the uptrend is still intact and a successful re-test of the broken level may result in higher prices.

Fundamental Outlook
The day is pretty slow in terms of economic indicators released by the Euro Zone or the United States and the most important event is represented by the ECOFIN meetings which will be attended by Finance Ministers of the EU member states. Although the meetings are closed to the press, sometimes officials speak to journalists during the day and an official statement will be released once the meetings have concluded.


GBP/USD
The pair experienced a strong bullish day, with price moving steadily to the upside after a close encounter with support which generated a clear break of the resistance located at 1.6380.

Technical Outlook
On an hourly chart the Relative Strength Index is showing a clear overbought condition of the market and 1.6440 resistance is sitting in front of rising prices. This makes us believe that a retracement will occur if price touches this level while the overbought condition is still valid. However, a break above resistance would renew the uptrend, bringing in additional buyers.

Fundamental Outlook
The UK Manufacturing Production is announced today at 09:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from the previous 1.2% to 0.4%. Lower numbers suggest diminished economic activity and may weaken the Pound, driving the pair lower. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT an estimate of the UK Gross Domestic Product will be released; the previous value was 0.7% and estimates above this value may strengthen the bullish sentiment.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the best forex broker.

 

[GDM_FX]

The Forex Market: The day’s important events will shape market behavior

EUR/USD
The Forex Market: The Euro extended its gains for the seventh consecutive day against the US Dollar on a growing belief among market participants that ECB will not cut rates in the near future. However, yesterday’s advance wasn’t a strong one and resistance was not touched.

Technical Outlook
The resistance located at 1.3830 wasn’t threatened yesterday but price continues to trade higher and the overbought condition of the pair is still present. We consider 1.3830 a good place for the rally to stop and for price to move sideways or even reverse. However, today’s technical aspect will be secondary as we have a day full of news releases ahead.

Fundamental Outlook
The first important event of the day is the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi which is scheduled at 08:00 am GMT. The President will talk about ECB policy at the European Parliament debate in Strasbourg, and the speech will most likely create volatility, as most of his public appearances do. An hour later the ECB will release the Monthly Bulletin containing the Banks viewpoint on current and future economic conditions and will also reveal the data which was analyzed when the interest rate decision was made.

The United States will announce the Retail Sales at 1:30 pm GMT and since this is the most important gauge of consumer spending at a retail level, the release usually has a high impact on the market. Analysts expect a small increase from the previous 0.4% to 0.6%, a fact which could strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD
The bears started to make their presence known yesterday and as a result the pair begun to fall below 1.6440, making a break of 1.6380 possible.

Technical Outlook
Although price moved slightly above the resistance located at 1.6440 during previous days, this proved to be a false break and the bulls ran out of steam, allowing price to fall. However, price is trading very close to the support located at 1.6380 and we cannot consider this level broken. If the pair chooses to move above support, it may revisit 1.6440 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases for today so the pair’s direction will be mostly influenced by the US Retail Sales and by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the best forex broker.