FOREX NEWS: MARKETS TAKE A BREATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
EUR/USD
Forex News: After a dip Friday the pair bounced at support and pushed higher but remained in a range. The economic data was mixed and did not have a strong impact on the pair’s direction.
Technical Outlook
Today price action will come to a halt due to the Christmas Holiday. It is possible to see small and/or erratic movement but most Forex brokers around the globe will be closed.
Fundamental Outlook
Today is Christmas Day, so banks across Europe and in the United States will be closed. The markets will take a breather and the fundamental scene will be totally quiet.
GBP/USD
The British Current Account released Friday came below expectations but this didn’t have a notable impact on the pair and overall price action was jerky, with a slight bearish bias, probably due to the approaching of the Winter Holidays.
Technical Outlook
Most markets around the globe will be closed today for Christmas, so price action will come to a stop. Beware of possible traces of liquidity which may trigger short-lived movement.
Fundamental Outlook
Similar to the U.S. and the rest of Europe, the United Kingdom celebrates Christmas today and no economic releases will take place. Merry Christmas to those who celebrate it!
FOREX NEWS: PRICE ACTION RESUMES BUT REMAINS CHOPPY AND UNPREDICTABLE
EUR/USD
Forex News: Markets and banks were closed yesterday due to Christmas and price action came to a total stop. Today some European countries celebrate Boxing Day, so market behaviour will be still uncertain.
Technical Outlook
Price will start to move today but volume will remain thin and price action will be irregular. A technical prediction cannot be made with accuracy but the levels to watch are 1.1875 as resistance and 1.1825 as support. Caution is recommended because we may see alternating periods of very high and very low volatility.
Fundamental Outlook
Most European banks will be still closed today and although U.S. banks will be open, no major economic data will come out and this will surely affect price action.
GBP/USD
The pair didn’t show even the slightest trace of movement yesterday due to Christmas, so we pick up where we left off Friday.
Technical Outlook
Price action will resume today but we don’t expect major developments to take place mostly because volumes will be thin and volatility will be unpredictable. Caution is recommended today and in fact for the remainder of the year.
Fundamental Outlook
UK banks will be closed in observance of Boxing Day and no economic data will be released, which is another reason for irregular and choppy price action.
FOREX NEWS: TRADING VOLUME REMAINS LOW, U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER MILD MOMENTUM
EUR/USD
Forex News: Price action resumed yesterday but no substantial developments took place, as it was anticipated due to the low trading volumes.
Technical Outlook
The pair moved higher and reached the resistance at 1.1875 but the level couldn’t be broken on several attempts. This doesn’t necessarily mean that 1.1875 is going to hold, because the pair’s direction will remain uncertain until the markets will gather a bit more volume. We expect choppy trading above and below 1.1875 but we cannot rule out a sudden spike generated by the low trading volume.
Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey will come out today at 3:00 pm GMT, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households about the overall economic situation. Usually a higher number shows optimism and strengthens the US Dollar but given the current situation of thin trading volumes, the impact is more difficult to anticipate; today’s forecast is 128.2.
GBP/USD
As it was expected, price action remained very slow and choppy due to the lack of volume and the pair traded in a very narrow range.
Technical Outlook
Price is moving very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which is flat, so an accurate technical prediction is difficult to make. We expect irregular price action and low trading volumes until the first week of January 2018 but beware of potential spikes.
Fundamental Outlook
Just like the rest of the week, today is a slow day for the Pound because no major economic data will be released.
FOREX NEWS: PAIRS PICK UP SPEED. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT STILL CHOPPY
EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair picked up speed yesterday and broke the resistance at 1.1875, trading above 1.1900 at the time of writing. The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey did not have a huge impact on the market and overall volume remained low.
Technical Outlook
Compared to the previous few days, movement was stronger yesterday but volume is still not back to normal and this means that we may see a sharp reversal or a strong climb into 1.1945 – 1.1950. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought and this favours a drop into 1.1875, which may turn into support. Our bias is neutral until volume and volatility return to normal.
Fundamental Outlook
The Chicago PMI will be released today at 2:45 pm GMT, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding overall business conditions in the Chicago area. The survey has a medium impact under normal conditions and higher numbers than the anticipated 62.0 usually generate mild US Dollar strength.
GBP/USD
Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable had a bullish bias yesterday and picked up speed compared to the previous days. However, resistance is still holding and a bounce lower is very possible.
Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.3420 stopped yesterday’s rally and the pair is likely to reverse at this level, aiming for the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The bias is mostly neutral and price is still in a range, with low volume overall but a break above 1.3420 will take the pair into 1.3450, which is a level where the chances of a reversal will increase.
Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic data releases for today so the main price driver will be the technical aspect.
Forex News: The pair continued on a bullish note yesterday and reached the long term resistance at 1.1945. Part of the reason behind the climb was the low trading volume and soft U.S. economic data.
Technical Outlook
Today is the last trading day of 2017 and this means that we may see irregular price action, possible reversals or even strong directional movement, thus caution is advised through the duration of the day. Strictly from a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index is in overbought territory and price is facing a strong resistance zone (1.1945 – 1.1950), so we expect to see a bounce lower. If 1.1950 is breached, the next big hurdle is 1.2000 but we don’t expect to see a touch of that barrier.
Fundamental Outlook
The German Preliminary Consumer Price Index will be today’s only notable release but due to the fact that it’s the final trading session of the year, the impact of this indicator might be muted. Under normal circumstances a higher reading than the anticipated 0.5% (previous 0.3%) strengthens the Euro; the time of release is 1:00 pm GMT.
GBP/USD
The Pound bulls took the pair above 1.3420 but price paused at the next resistance (1.3450). From a longer-term perspective, the pair is still in a range, without a clear bias.
Technical Outlook
The level at 1.3450 is a key resistance for long term movement, so it’s very possible to see a bounce lower from here but on the other hand, the low trading volume can make it easier for the bulls to break the level. Trading will be affected by end-of-year choppiness, so caution is recommended.
Fundamental Outlook
Today is yet another lacklustre day for the Pound from a fundamental standpoint as no major indicators will be released. We wish you a Happy New Year and a prosperous 2018!
FOREX NEWS: NEW YEAR’S DAY BRINGS MARKETS TO A STANDSTILL
EUR/USD
Forex News: The entire last week was bullish and the final trading day of 2017 was no exception. Price broke the key resistance at 1.2000 but then retraced and finished the year very close to the level. The fundamental scene lacked any important releases.
Technical Outlook
Today markets across the globe will be closed and price action will come to a stop. Movement will resume Tuesday.
Fundamental Outlook
Banks in most parts of the globe will be closed, celebrating New Year’s Day and no economic data will be released today.
GBP/USD
Friday the bulls took price more than 100 pips higher, breaking 1.3500 and approaching 1.3550 resistance. The session ended with a bounce at resistance and a move lower but the bias remains bullish.
Technical Outlook
Today price action across the board will come to a stop, celebrating to New Year’s Day and trading will resume Tuesday.
Fundamental Outlook
UK banks and financial institutions will be closed today as well, so the markets will come to a stop and activity will resume tomorrow.
FOREX NEWS: PRICE ACTION RESUMES FOR THE FIRST TRADING DAY OF 2018
EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the market stood still as people around the globe celebrated the New Year, so we pick up where we left off Friday, right on the ley resistance at 1.2000.
Technical Outlook
Price direction is difficult to predict because the markets are still under the influence of low trading volumes. Strictly from a technical point of view, the Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory and the pair is showing rejection after the move above 1.2000. This suggests that a move lower will follow, so it’s possible to see a descent into the previous level at 1.1945 – 1.1950.
Fundamental Outlook
The pair will not be affected today by any notable economic releases and this may be another reason for irregular price action.
GBP/USD
Yesterday the pair did not move due to New Year celebrations so today we will get a fresh start with the first trading session of 2018.
Technical Outlook
The near-touch of 1.3550 resistance combined with the overbought position of the Relative Strength Index triggered a rejection lower that brought price very close to the psychological level at 1.3500. If this level will be broken, the pair might continue towards 1.3450 but keep in mind that trading volume is still not back to normal and this may translate into irregular or choppy price action.
Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing PMI will be released today at 9:30 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers about business conditions in the Manufacturing sector. It acts as a gauge of optimism and higher numbers than the forecast 58.0 usually strengthen the Pound but today’s impact is difficult to anticipate.
FOREX NEWS: VOLUMES BACK TO NORMAL. US MANUFACTURING PMI AND FOMC MINUTES EYED FOR NEXT MOVE
EUR/USD
Forex News: Despite being overbought, the pair continued higher yesterday and even approached 1.2092, which is the highest price reached in 2017. Most of the move was due to US Dollar weakness but part of it was erased in the afternoon.
Technical Outlook
Price is deep in overbought territory and it shows rejection after coming close to last year’s high (1.2092). This suggests that we may see a deeper pullback, possibly into 1.2000 but overall the US Dollar is weak against most of its counterparts and the bias is bullish, so once the retracement is over we expect to see a move into 1.2100 area.
Fundamental Outlook
At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Manufacturing PMI will come out, showing the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers about business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Usually a higher than anticipated number strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is relatively mild; today’s forecast is 58.3.
At 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest rate meeting, outlining the reasons that determined the rate vote. The release has a higher impact if the document contains hints about future monetary policy, so caution is recommended.
GBP/USD
The British Manufacturing PMI released yesterday came below expectations but this didn’t hinder the pair’s climb, which extended into 1.3550 resistance.
[/i]Technical Outlook
Price bounced at 1.3500, turning this level into support and sending the pair above 1.3550 resistance. The next destination will be the resistance zone at 1.3600 – 1.3616 but the Relative Strength Index is overbought, which is an early sign of a potential pullback. Keep in mind that 1.3550 is an important level, so a clear break will probably bring in additional buyers.
Fundamental Outlook
The Pound will be affected by construction data in the form of the Purchasing Managers’ Index, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT; the survey acts as a gauge of optimism and numbers above expectations usually strengthen the currency, with a medium impact. Today’s forecast is 53.2, while the previous was 53.1.
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS RECOVERY SIGNS. KEY SUPPORT TESTED
EUR/USD
Forex News: The first part of yesterday’s trading session was controlled by the bears and the FOMC Minutes added some strength to the US Dollar, revealing that some Fed officials were concerned about low inflation expectations but the majority still expect inflation to rise to 2%.
Technical Outlook
The long awaited retracement finally occurred yesterday and now the pair is testing the level at 1.2000. Both oscillators are showing good downside momentum so we expect price to break the current level and to move closer to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The bias is still bullish and the current move is just a needed retracement but if price moves below the 50 EMA, the uptrend started at 1.1735 might be coming to an end.
Fundamental Outlook
AT 1:15 pm GMT we take a first look at U.S. employment with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is a report that tracks changes in the number of employed individuals, excluding the farming sector and government. It has a lower impact than the Non-Farm Payrolls released tomorrow, but under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar. Today’s anticipated reading is 191K, very close to the previous 190K.
GBP/USD
The US Dollar made a comeback early during yesterday’s trading session and dragged the pair into 1.3500 support. The FOMC minutes had a relatively low impact but gave the greenback an extra push.
Technical Outlook
After failing to break 1.3600 resistance the pair retraced lower more than 100 pips, fuelled partly by a worse than anticipated British Construction PMI and partly by the FOMC Meeting Minutes. If the support at 1.3500 will be broken today, we will most likely see an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and possibly with 1.3450. Our bias is bearish for the short term as long as price is trading below 1.3550.
Fundamental Outlook
The Services PMI is the last in this week’s British PMI series but its impact is usually the lowest out of the three. The release is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and the expected reading is 58.1; higher numbers show optimism among purchasing managers from the Services sector and this usually strengthens the Pound but to a limited extent.
FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP FOR THE FIRST NON-FARM PAYROLLS REPORT OF THE YEAR
EUR/USD
Forex News: Despite a much better than expected ADP jobs report, the pair climbed strongly for most of yesterday’s trading session. 1.2000 is now confirmed as strong support and resistance is once again threatened.
Technical Outlook
The previous high was broken today after a textbook retracement that found support at 1.2000 so all hints point towards a trend continuation and a break of 1.2092 (last year’s high). If this barrier is broken, the next hurdle is located far away, in the 1.2280 zone so surely some weeks will pass until (or if) that mark is hit. A lot will depend today on the outcome of the U.S. jobs report, so the technical aspect will be secondary, especially around the time of release.
Fundamental Outlook
The first major event of the day will be the release of the European Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 10:00 am GMT. This is the main gauge of inflation in the Eurozone and usually has a strong impact on the single currency, with higher numbers strengthening it. The anticipated change is 1.4%, a drop from the previous 1.5%.
Later in the day the US Non-Farm Payrolls will be released, showing changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming sector. This is widely considered the most important US jobs data and has a strong impact on the US Dollar. Higher levels of employment suggest that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future and this in turn strengthens the greenback. The anticipated change is 188K (previous 228K) and the time of release is 1:30 pm GMT.
GBP/USD
Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable bounced at support and moved higher throughout yesterday’s session but the Pound’s climb wasn’t as steep as the Euro’s.
Technical Outlook
Our short term outlook is neutral until we see a clear break or bounce at 1.3550. Once that happens, the next respective targets will become 1.3600 or 1.3500 but keep in mind that the pair will be also affected by the U.S. jobs data.
Fundamental Outlook
Today there are no major releases scheduled for the Pound, but the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls will have a direct and probably strong impact on the pair’s movement.
