GDMFX - Daily News

[GDM_FX]

Forex News: European data likely to generate the day’s bias

EUR/USD

Forex News: The worse than anticipated value of the US Existing Home Sales contributed to the US Dollar weakness seen Friday but similar to the pair’s behavior throughout the rest of the week, the move up lacked strength and price didn’t continue in the same direction afterwards.

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading between the support located at 1.3710 and the minor resistance formed around 1.3770 and today we anticipate a break of either one of these two levels. However, recent price action doesn’t offer a lot of hints about future movement so an accurate assessment is difficult to give but the medium term control belongs to the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Business Climate survey is released at 09:00 am GMT with an anticipated value of 110.7, a small increase from the previous 110.6. The importance of the survey comes from its large sample size of about 7,000 businesses and higher than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the single currency.

An hour later the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index is announced but no change is anticipated from the current 0.7%. The CPI is used by the Central Bank as a gauge of inflation and a value outside a certain range would determine a rate adjustment; usually higher values strengthen the Euro, taking the pair north.


GBP/USD

Friday the pair had one of the hardest to trade days in a long while. Price moved up and down many times and almost the entire trading session was characterized by sharp reversals on the lower time frames.

Technical Outlook

The Pound is weakened by disappointing economic data and we expect moves lower. However, the first barrier in front of falling prices is 1.6600, a level which is not confirmed support because it didn’t reject prices higher on previous occasions. Today’s price action will show if this level is indeed support but nonetheless, a move below it would indicate that bears are starting to gain strength and would make 1.6440 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for the day so price direction will be mostly driven by the technical aspect of the market.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

 

[GDM_FX]

Forex News: A breakout is highly expected

EUR/USD

Forex News: Both the German Business Climate and the Euro Zone CPI came out slightly better than anticipated but apparently the market participants expected better numbers so the actual values came as a disappointment.

Technical Outlook

The anticipated break of the resistance located at 1.3770 or the support located at 1.3710 didn’t occur and in fact both of them were touched almost to the pip. The market is deciding the next move and today we are likely to see the result but at the moment nothing is clear. The strength of the bulls is starting to fade away and the breakout we mentioned will most likely decide the day’s direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day is the release of the US Consumer Confidence which is a leading indicator of consumer spending as confident consumers are more likely to spend more, hence boosting the economy. The release is scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and a decrease to 80.2 from the previous 80.7 is anticipated; better numbers usually strengthen the greenback, driving the pair lower.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to lose ground yesterday against the US Dollar as signs of economic contraction are starting to appear. However, in the second part of yesterday’s trading session the Pound recovered the losses.

Technical Outlook

The pair had yesterday another trading session characterized by indecision and sharp reversals. Today we expect a break of either support or resistance. The optimism that surrounded the Pound lately is starting to fade so our bias is slightly bearish for the day, anticipating a break of the support located at 1.6600.

Fundamental Outlook

At 09:30 am GMT the British Bankers’ Association releases the Mortgage Approvals, an indicator which shows the number of mortgages approved for home purchases. The expected figure is 47.9, an increase from the previous 46.5 and usually a better than anticipated value strengthens the Pound. Of course the US release mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

 

[GDM_FX]

Forex News: A clear move is still anticipated

EUR/USD

Forex News: Surprisingly the pair remained inside the range for another day and price action was characterized by sharp reversals and whipsaws on the lower time frames. US data came our worse than expected, a fact which only created more difficult trading conditions.

Technical Outlook

Until a clear, decisive breakout occurs, we have a neutral bias on this pair. Lower time frames such as 15 and 5 minutes are extremely hard to trade and all moves are almost immediately reversed. Resistance still sits at 1.3770, a level which gains more and more strength, while support is located at 1.3710.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major indicators but the most important one is the release of the US New Home Sales. The indicator offers insights into the US housing market and has the potential to strengthen the US Dollar if better numbers are posted. For today’s release (scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT), analysts expect a decrease from the previous 414K to 406K.


GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened throughout the day against the greenback but the release of the US Consumer Confidence created a “V” shaped pattern which probably took out a lot of Stop Loss orders and created a choppy trading environment.

Technical Outlook

Although the pair moved above the resistance located at 1.6665, the four hour candles show indecision and even rejection (long upper wicks), a fact which makes us believe this is not a valid breakout. We are neutral on this pair as well but the main levels to watch are 1.6750 as resistance and 1.6600 as support. The fundamental aspect will play a major role in today’s developments, overshadowing the technical factors.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product is the headline of the day. Scheduled at 09:30 am GMT, the GDP is expected to remain unchanged at 2.8% but a surprise would create a lot of turmoil in the market. The GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s performance and has the capability to influence the pair’s movement drastically. Higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound and will most likely strengthen it, driving the pair higher; the opposite applies for a lower value of the GDP and of course, the US data will be an important factor for today’s price action.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

 

[GDM_FX]

Forex News: US fundamental events steal the headlines once again

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Dollar strengthened against the Euro throughout yesterday’s trading session as the US New Home Sales posted a much better than anticipated value, increasing optimism that Fed will continue to taper the monetary stimulus.

Technical Outlook

The decisive break of 1.3710 to the down side signifies a major victory for the bears and maybe more important than that, it suggests that the ranging period is over. A re-test from below is possible, especially considering the fact that the Relative Strength Index is approaching an oversold condition but for now the control belongs to the bears and we are likely to see moves lower.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT the German Consumer Price Index is released but no change is anticipated from the current 1.3%. This is the main gauge of inflation and a higher value usually strengthens the Euro because the German economy is the backbone of the Euro Zone. The US Durable Goods Orders are released at 1:30 pm GMT and a big change is expected from the previous -4.2% to -1.6%. More orders for durable goods suggest that manufacturers will increase their activity to satisfy demand and normally this strengthens the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT Fed Chairwoman Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. The focus will be on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and after reading a prepared statement, Janet Yellen will answer questions asked by the Committee members. This second part is likely to generate the most volatility and we recommend caution if trading at the time.


GBP/USD

The Gross Domestic Product of the United Kingdom surprisingly dropped yesterday to 2.7% from the previous 2.8%, weakening the Pound and allowing moves lower.

Technical Outlook

Although UK data was disappointing and US data better than anticipated, the pair didn’t travel a huge distance to the south so we cannot consider the bears to be in control. However, 1.6665 support was broken yesterday and if a re-test generates a move lower which will break 1.6600 support, the bias changes to bearish. Of course, 1.6600 may be broken even without a re-test of 1.6665 and moves to the north are not out of the question either.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for today so the main focus will be on the US events and on the technical aspect.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

 

[GDM_FX]

Forex News: Dollar strength affected by the US Gross Domestic Product

EUR/USD

Forex News: The first part of yesterday’s trading session was characterized by Euro weakness mainly due to the lower than anticipated German CPI but once disappointing US data came out, the pair climbed to touch the previously broken level of 1.3710.

Technical Outlook

At the moment the pair is testing from below the broken level of 1.3710 and if this test results in a bounce lower, it means that we are dealing with previous support turned resistance. This fact would indicate that bears are indeed in control of the pair’s short to medium term movement and we are likely to see a break of yesterday’s lowest point (1.3643). Otherwise, the next resistance is located at 1.3770 and might be the pair’s next target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Consumer price Index Estimate is released, with no change anticipated from the current 0.7%. Higher than anticipated values are considered beneficial for the European economy and have the potential to take the pair higher. However, the most important event of the day is the release of the US Preliminary Gross Domestic Product scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The anticipated value is 2.6%, a decrease from the previous 3.2%; lower numbers suggest an economic contraction and are perceived as detrimental for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair had a choppy trading session which started with the bears being in control but finished higher, above 1.6665. Overall it was a difficult day for trading on the lower time frames.

Technical Outlook

The pair remains in a range, moving above and below 1.6665 and we maintain our neutral bias until a clear move occurs. For the moment the main levels to watch are 1.6750 as resistance and 1.6600 as support. Until the pair breaks decisively either one of them, the ranging movement will continue.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak today at the Symposium on Financial Stability and the Role of Central Bankers, in Frankfurt. The event is scheduled at 3:30 pm GMT and is likely to create volatility, depending on the Governor’s attitude and matters discussed. Of course, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

 

[GDM_FX]

Forex News: Mario Draghi testifies – waiting for the market’s reaction

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the bulls scored the biggest victory of last week by taking the pair close to the major resistance located at 1.3830 on the back of a better than anticipated European CPI and a disappointing US Gross Domestic Product.

Technical Outlook

As mentioned before, a crucial resistance sits in front of rising prices and we have already seen signs of rejection on a four hour chart. The Relative Strength Index is indicating an overbought market and it’s likely for the pair to pull back to 1.3770 before further advances to the upside can be made. The technical side of the market will be somewhat secondary and all eyes will be on Mario Draghi’s testimony.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important event of the day is the testimony of ECB President Mario Draghi which is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The president will speak before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament and we expect a lot of strong moves to occur at the time, depending on his attitude. Whipsaws and sharp reversals are a distinct possibility so we recommend caution if trading during the testimony. The US Manufacturing PMI is released at 3:00 pm GMT with an expected increase from the previous 51.3 to 52.3, a fact which would strengthen the greenback if it were to come true or if even higher numbers will be posted.


GBP/USD

The worse than expected US Gross Domestic Product allowed the pair to climb higher during Friday’s trading session. Price action was rather choppy on the lower time frames but the day was bullish nonetheless.

Technical Outlook

As we mentioned last week, we are neutral on the pair until a clear break of either support (1.6600) or resistance (1.6750) occurs. The bulls had a good run Friday but resistance is still holding and a bounce lower is very possible. If this occurs, the first level of importance to the down side is 1.6665; on the other hand, a break of resistance would have to be confirmed by a re-test unless the move up is a very strong one.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is released today at 09:30 am GMT and a small increase is anticipated from the previous 56.7 to 56.9. Since this is a leading indicator of economic health focused on the manufacturing sector, better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Pound. The US Manufacturing PMI released later in the day will have a direct impact on the pair as well.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

 

[GDM_FX]

Forex News: Support levels are targeted

EUR/USD

Forex News: Surprisingly, the market didn’t react almost at all during Mario Draghi’s testimony which took place yesterday in Brussels. Although the president’s comments were rather positive regarding the lending situation in Europe, the single currency didn’t strengthen as estimated.

Technical Outlook

Friday’s top couldn’t be surpassed yesterday and it appears as the overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index combined with the strength of 1.3830 resistance are setting the stage for a reversal. Even if signs of lower prices are present in the market, the pair is still under the control of the bulls from a medium term perspective so another push towards 1.3830 is very possible. However, we consider 1.3710 to be the first lower target. Note that the week opened with a gap lower and more often than not these gaps are filled so we might see price move to the upper part of the gap today or in the days to come, especially if 1.3710 is touched and manages to push the pair higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the Spanish Unemployment Change is the only noteworthy event of the day. The estimated value is 74.2K, a decrease from the previous 113.1K; usually lower than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the Euro as less unemployed people are a sign of a thriving economy. However, the event is considered to have a medium impact on the pair’s movement.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI met analysts’ forecast and posted a value of 56.9, a fact which didn’t create surprising moves but allowed the pair to have a bearish day following a bounce off 1.6750 resistance.

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading close to the level of 1.6665 and it looks like the bulls don’t have the power needed to push price above 1.6750. Even if we still maintain a neutral stance until either 1.6750 or 1.6600 is broken, we believe that a touch of the mentioned support is very likely if 1.6665 is broken to the downside. A break-or-bounce scenario will unfold if the pair touches 1.6600 support and the result will most likely influence the medium term outlook.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI is released today at 09:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from the previous 64.6 to 63.6. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

 

[GDM_FX]

Forex News: Support still holding but uncertainty rules the market

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday we had a rather mixed trading session, with price reversing direction several times, a fact which generated a difficult trade environment. Tensions in Ukraine added to the lack of clear direction.

Technical Outlook

Although the pair made a run for the support located at 1.3710, this level couldn’t be touched and the bulls took price higher for a re-test of the recently broken level of 1.3770. This re-test and the bounce lower that followed confirm the fact that now 1.3770 is resistance once again and moves to the south are a distinct possibility. However, the first support is located pretty close to current price and may reject price if touched, especially if the Relative Strength Index will indicate an oversold condition at the time.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 08:15 am GMT the Spanish Services PMI is released, with an anticipated increase from the previous 54.9 to 55.3. Half an hour later the Italian Services PMI is released and anticipated to increase from 49.4 to 50.6. Since both are leading indicators of health for the services sector in their respective countries, better than expected values usually strengthen the Euro but they are not considered high impact indicators.

Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT the US Non Farm Employment Change will be announced by Automatic Data Processing Inc.; although this release doesn’t have such a huge impact as the government indicator with the same name which comes out two days later, it has the potential to influence the market, especially if a surprising number is posted. The estimate is 159K, a decrease from the previous 175K and usually higher numbers are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

The British Construction PMI came out worse than estimated, a fact which reversed a previous rally seen early yesterday on the lower time frames and triggered a slow decline for the rest of the day. However, the pair couldn’t move decisively away from 1.6665.

Technical Outlook

No clear developments took place yesterday and currently the pair is trading close to 1.6665, a level which seems to attract price more and more recently. There are no clear signs of control exhibited by either bulls or bears and price action remains mixed until a break of 1.6750 resistance or 1.6600 support occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 09:30 am GMT with a small decrease anticipated from the previous 58.3 to 58.0. Since this is a survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector and also a leading indicator of economic health, better than anticipated numbers have the potential to strengthen the Pound. Of course the US employment data will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

 

[GDM_FX]

Forex News: Interest Rates are here again – a wild day ahead

EUR/USD

Forex News: European data released yesterday was slightly better than anticipated while the US ADP Non Farm Payrolls showed a decrease of employment levels during the previous month. Despite the data released, the greenback didn’t manage to take the pair below 1.3710.

Technical Outlook

Two four-hour candles touched the support located at 1.3710 and both were rejected, closing with long wicks in their lower side. This is a sign of a potential bounce higher, with the first target being 1.3770, followed by 1.3830. Price action may be irregular until the ECB Press Conference is over and throughout the day, the technical factors will be secondary to the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a critical day for the Euro as the ECB will announce their Interest Rate decision at 12:45 am GMT (no change anticipated from the current 0.25%). The rate announcement will be followed 45 minutes later by a Press Conference during which ECB President Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and will answer audience questions. This Q&A session is usually a reason for huge volatility and sharp reversals as traders try to interpret Draghi’s comments and answers. We recommend caution if trading at the time.


GBP/USD

The British Services PMI posted a slightly better than estimated value, increasing demand for the currency while bad US employment data weakened the Dollar, allowing the pair to have a bullish trading session.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s rise confirmed 1.6650 as support after a successful bounce higher off this level and once again we are close to the resistance located at 1.6750. The Relative Strength Index is not showing an overbought condition of the market and yesterday’s candles are full, without wicks to either side, indicating bull strength. However, a break of resistance cannot be anticipated because of important fundamental events which will most likely influence the day’s price direction.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England announces today at 12:00 pm GMT the Interest Rate and the Asset Purchase Facility value. No change is anticipated for either of them but nonetheless, volatility is likely to be present at the time of the release. The current Interest Rate is 0.50% and the Asset Purchase Facility is 375B and a surprise modification (or even hints of a future change) would generate huge moves.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

 

[GDM_FX]

Forex News: All eyes on the US Non Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD

Forex News: The European Central Bank kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% but the single currency strengthened substantially on the back of comments made by Mario Draghi who suggested that no additional monetary stimulus is necessary, considering the current state of the economy.

Technical Outlook

The recent rally will probably continue after a brief retracement lower which is likely to find support around the freshly broken level of 1.3830. The four hour Relative Strength Index is signaling an overbought condition of the market, a fact which more often than not results in a bearish move. Although the outlook is bullish, almost anything is possible, especially if today’s US employment report shows a surprising value.

Fundamental Outlook

Without a doubt the US Non Farm Employment Change report is the day’s headline as it has a tremendous impact on the market each time it is released. The jobs situation is a concerning factor for the American economy and today’s report is considered the main gauge of this situation. Higher values suggest that more people are employed and also that consumer spending may increase in the future, a beneficial fact for the greenback. The event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and the estimated figure is 151K, an increase from the previous 113K.


GBP/USD

Bank of England decided to make no adjustments to the Interest Rate or the Asset Purchase Facility but the pair moved to the north after some choppy price action experienced at the time of the interest rate release.

Technical Outlook

The resistance located at 1.6750 is finally broken after a long period of indecision. However, the break is not extremely strong so we are waiting for a re-test of the level and a bounce higher in order to consider this break a real one. The US Dollar will be highly influenced today by the US Non Farm Payrolls and the technical aspect of the market will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major data releases for the day and market participants will be mainly focused on the US events. We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.