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[FXCM-PR Rep]

Euro, British Pound Pare Overnight Advance on Uncertainties Surrounding Fundamental O

The Euro rallied to a high of 1.2670 during the overnight trade as investors raised their appetite for risk, but the lack of momentum to cross above the 20-Day SMA (1.2783) may keep the exchange rate within a tight range throughout the day as market liquidity thins ahead of the weekend.

Talking Points
• Japanese Yen: Falls Across the Board on Risk Appetite
• Pound: Public Borrowing Rises At Record Pace
• Euro: Germany Expands 0.2% in First Quarter
• U.S. Dollar: Risk Sentiment To Drive Price Action Into End of The Week

Nevertheless, the lower house of Germany’s Parliament approved the EUR 750B rescue package in order to support the economies operating under the single-currency, while the upper house is scheduled to vote on the bill later today.

At the same time, the final GDP reading for Europe’s largest economy showed the growth rate expanded 0.2% in the first quarter after unexpectedly holding flat during the last three-months of 2009, led by a rise in government spending paired with an increase in foreign trade, while business investments unexpectedly slipped 1.6% after contracting a revised 1.0% in the fourth-quarter. Moreover, a separate report showed business confidence in Germany unexpectedly weakened in May, with the IFO index slipping to 101.5 from 101.6, while the gauge for future expectations pulled back to 103.7 from a three-year high of 104.0 in April. Meanwhile, service-based activity and manufacturing in the Euro-Zone expanded at a slower pace in May, with the composite purchasing managers index weakening to 56.2 from 57.3, and the ongoing weakness within the private sector may lead the Governing Council to support the economy throughout the second-half of the year as policy makers see a risk for a protracted recovery.

The British Pound pulled back during the European trade and slipped to a low of 1.4317 to maintain the narrow range from earlier this week, and the currency may continue to trend sideways over the near-term as investors weigh the prospects for future policy. A report by the Bank of England showed mortgage approvals by the major banks in the U.K. slipped to a 1-year low of 47K in April from a revised 51K in the previous month, while the M3 money supply unexpectedly held flat after tipping 0.1% higher in March. Nevertheless, business investments unexpectedly jumped 6.0% in the first-quarter to post the largest expansion since the fourth-quarter of 2006, while public sector borrowing increased GBP10.0B in April to mark the biggest shortfall since the series began in 1993, and the ballooning deficit may continue to put pressure on the central bank to maintain a loose policy in the second-half of the year as the government aims to encourage a sustainable recovery in Britain.

The greenback weakened against most of its major counterparts, while the Japanese Yen lost ground across the board, with the USD/JPY advancing to a high of 90.46 following the rise in risk appetite. As the economic docket remains fairly light for the North American trade, risk sentiment is likely to drive price action in the foreign exchange market on Friday, and the dollar could face increased selling pressures as equity futures foreshadow a higher open for the U.S. session.

Do You Expect The Retracement in EUR/USD to Continue Next Week? Join us in the Forum

Related Articles:
Dollar Fully Dependent on Safe Haven Flows at Rate Forecasts Vanish

To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: [email protected]

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 05.24.10

US Dollar Forecast Remains Bullish Amidst Large S&P 500 Declines
Euro: Will a Delayed Fear of Collapse Allow for a Recovery?
Japanese Yen May Give Back Gains As Fears Subside
British Pound Could Benefit From Upward Revision in 1Q GDP
Canadian Dollar Likely to be Subdued as Traders Await Rate Decision
Australian Dollar Forecast to Decline Further Amidst Market Turmoil
New Zealand Dollar to Get Slight Bounce from Risk Appetite
Gold’s Future Dependent not on Risk Trends but Sovereign Credit Fears

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

New DailyFX Trading Course Raises the Bar for Online Forex Education

New York, May 25, 2010—DailyFX (www.dailyfx.com), FXCM’s free news and research Web site, is proud to announce the launch of its new, video-based DailyFX Trading Course, free to all live FXCM clients.

For years, FXCM has offered a variety of trading courses. These courses have been extremely popular, with thousands of students completing them. But despite their tremendous popularity, these courses underwent some revamping recently in order to continue setting the standard for online forex education.

“We have always been pleased with the positive reviews from traders who enrolled in the old Power Course,” says DailyFX Education Team Lead Jeremy Wagner. “But we realized we were reaching a relatively small portion of the forex community and limiting the amount of information that our students were learning. To make the course more effective and accessible, and to reach out to a larger group of traders, we decided to upgrade the course from a forum-based offering to a video-based offering. And so far, we’re really glad we did.”

Continuing the DailyFX commitment to provide traders with the very best educational tools and resources on the Web, the DailyFX Trading Course is designed to introduce popular trading tools and techniques in a manner that both new and experienced traders can benefit from. The bulk of the course consists of 60 video lessons, spanning 15 trading subjects, and over ten hours of live instructor led webinars each week. In addition to the videos and webinars, students can complete homework assignments and further their learning through course forum discussions. Moreover, the curriculum’s “go at your own pace” and “learn what you want” format provides students the flexibility and freedom to focus on the subjects they want for as long as they want.

However, unlike previous DailyFX course offerings, the new DailyFX Trading Course is not for sale. Instead it is free to all live FXCM clients.

“Rather than focusing our energies on selling the course to the general public, we’re concentrating all of our resources on our clients,” says Marc Prosser, CMO of FXCM. “We want our instructors to be able to dedicate all of their time to helping FXCM clients improve their trading skills and continue cultivating their passion for online currency trading.”

Participating in the new DailyFX Trading Course is easy. If you already have a live FXCM account, simply log into DailyFX+ and start learning. If you don’t have a live FXCM account but are interested in taking the course and gaining 24-hour, seven day a week access, simply open an FXCM account today.


What’s in the Course?

• Core Video Lessons: Each course subject has two core video lessons. The first lesson introduces the subject and primes students for the more advanced concepts covered in lesson two. The second lesson explores the subject in more detail, providing necessary information for mastery of the subject.

• Instructor Take Lessons: Each subject features two Instructor Take Lessons, in which a DailyFX instructor explains how they specifically trade with the subject under discussion (e.g. MACD).

• Daily Instructor Webinars: Every day, DailyFX course instructors will hold live webinars to complement the core video lessons. These webinars show traders, in real-time, how to apply what they learned in the video lessons to actual live trading situations. Following the trading portion of the webinar, the instructor will field questions and provide additional insight into the trading session.

• Homework: An extremely popular component of the original Power Course, homework assignments allow students to reflect on the lessons covered and gauge how well they have absorbed course materials. Students will also receive feedback on their homework from course instructors.

• Forums: After watching the video lessons or participating in the live webinars, there is a good chance that students will still have questions. For these instances, students can visit the DailyFX forums to pose questions directly to course instructors as well as continue to engage in subjects covered in the week’s lessons.

To learn more about the DailyFX Trading Course and to sign up for any live FXCM trading account, click here.

And to get a sneak peek at the new trading course, contact me at the email address below for a trial login.


# # #

FXCM Holdings LLC Facts

Forex Capital Markets (FXCM) is a leading global forex broker that caters to both retail and institutional markets. Founded in 1999, FXCM is one of the largest brokers, regulated by several of the world’s most respected financial authorities.

At the heart of FXCM’s client offering is No Dealing Desk* forex trading. Clients have Direct Market Access to some of the world's largest forex liquidity providers, enabling FXCM to offer clients spread as low as 1 pip on major crosses. Clients also have the benefits of mobile trading, one-click order execution, and trading from real-time charts. FXCM’s CFD product† offers no re-quote trading and allows traders to trade oil, gold, silver, and stock indices, along with forex on one platform. In addition to currency and CFD trading, FXCM offers educational courses on forex trading, and provides free news and research through DailyFX.com.

* Please note, FXCM Micro, in its discretion, may or may not offset individual transactions unlike transactions in most FXCM standard accounts. For additional information, click here.

† Please note that CFD accounts are not available to residents of the U.S. and its territories.

Trading foreign exchange and CFD’s on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Press Contact:

Gregory Kelly

E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: (646) 432-2122

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises to Highest Since March 2008

Consumer Confidence in May advanced to the highest level since 2008 (where we were still collapsing from the financial crisis) on the back of an improved labor market. The Conference Board’s confidence index advanced to 63.3 from a downward revision of 57.7 the previous month, exceeding economists’ expectations of 58.5.

Taking a look at the breakdown of the report, the labor differential came in at -39.0 which was the highest since a year ago, while the conference board’s measure of present conditions increased to 30.2 this month, marking the highest reading since December 2008. At the same time the gauge of expectations for the next six months soared to 85.3 from 77.4 in April.

Unemployment versus Nonfarm Payrolls

Employment in U.S. soared 290K, the most in four years in April, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.9% from 9.7% the previous month. At the same time, the 2010 census added only 66K workers, while other job gains were in sectors such as manufacturing which was largely impacted during the financial crisis.

This suggests that previously unemployed Americans are returning to the labor force amid an improved labor outlook. Looking ahead, employers may continue to add jobs as sales and profits increase.

Consumer Confidence versus Michigan Sentiment

The preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Confidence in May rose to 73.3 from 72.2 the previous month.

The relationship between the Consumer Confidence and Michigan Sentiment are tightly correlated, with the Michigan Index tending to be the first of the two readings to reverse course.

In 2009, Consumer Confidence underperformed Michigan, a direct fit with Michigan which leads to turning points.

Forecast
Recently, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley stated that the central bank wants to keep inflation “low and stable,” and went onto add that the banking system is “still under significant stress.” Looking ahead, Market participants are weighing in a zero percent chance that the Fed will hike rates twenty five basis points at its next rate decision on April 28th, while pricing in a thirty basis point rate increase for the next twelve months, according to the Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps. All in all, the recent developments with Spanish banks, Greece’s debt crisis, and the possible spillover effects onto other euro-area members are further reasons why the Fed are likely to become more cautious, with no likely chance of movement in the Fed Funds target rate until late this year, early next year.

Written by Michael Wright, Currency Analyst
To Receive Future Articles by Email, please contact me at [email protected]

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

British Pound Pares Decline as OECD Sees Scope For BoE Rate Hike

British Pound Pares Decline as OECD Sees Scope For BoE Rate Hike, Euro Weakens For Third Day

The British Pound bounced back from the low (1.4335) and pared the overnight decline to maintain the tight range carried over from the previous week, and the GBP/USD appears to be carving a near-term bottom just above 1.4200 as the daily RSI rebounds from oversold territory.

Talking Points
• Japanese Yen: Weighed by Risk Appetite
• Pound: Mortgage Approvals Tip Higher in April
• Euro: German Consumer Confidence Weakens in June
• U.S. Dollar: Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales on Tap

Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development held an improved outlook for the world economy and raised its outlook for future growth as emerging economies continue to drive the global recovery, and expects its group of 30 nations to grow 2.7% this year amid an initial forecast for a 1.9% expansion back in November.

Moreover, the OECD said that U.K. policy makers “face the challenge of preserving credibility, with headline inflation and some measures of inflation expectations exceeding the targeted rate,” and argued that the rise in inflation expectations “implies a need to increase interest rates earlier than previously thought and no later than the last quarter of 2010.” In addition, the group said that the central bank should look to normalize policy throughout the second-half of the year and scale back its emergency programs, and went onto say that “the fragile state of the economy should be weighed against the need to maintain credibility when deciding the initial pace of consolidation” as tightening fiscal policy “will be a drag on activity from 2010 onwards.” As the new government aims to balance its finances, the drop in public spending could put pressures on the BoE to maintain a dovish policy stance throughout the year, and the central bank may look to support the economy as the fiscal stimulus tapers off in order to encourage a sustainable recovery. Nevertheless, a report by the British Bankers’ Association showed mortgage approvals increased to 35,729 in April from a revised 35,044 in the previous month, which failed to meet expectations for a rise to 37,000, and the ongoing weakness in the private sector reinforces a dovish outlook for future policy as Governor Mervyn King expects the slack within the real economy to drag on inflation going forward.

The Euro weakened for the third-day and slipped a low of 1.2263 as the uncertainties surrounding the debt crisis continued to weigh on market sentiment, and fears of contagion drag on the exchange rate over the near-term as global policy makers take extraordinary steps to avoid the negative effects from spilling over into other parts of the world. Meanwhile, European Central Bank board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo said that the Governing Council’s decision to buy government bonds “are temporary” and “sterilized,” and said that the ECB would not “need to buy huge amounts” of assets to stabilize the financial markets during a speech in Frankfurt. At the same time, council member Erkki Liikanen said that “the decision to launch the Securities Markets Program doesn’t reflect any change in the present monetary policy stance” as he met with the Finnish Chamber of Commerce, and argued that the efforts “will help to resolve a malfunctioning of some segments of the euro-area debt-securities market” as policy makers continue to support the real economy. Nevertheless, the GfK consumer confidence survey for Germany slipped to 3.5 in June from a revised 3.7 in the previous month, and fears of a protracted recovery may weigh on household sentiment over the medium-term as policy makers maintain a cautious outlook for the region.

The greenback lost ground against most of its currency counterparts as the rebound in risk appetite swayed demands for the reserve-currency, while the USD/JPY pared the previous day’s decline to reach a high of 90.48 during the overnight session. However, the dollar could face increased volatility going into the U.S. trade as the economic docket is expected to reinforce an improved outlook for the world’s largest economy. Demands for durable goods are forecasted to increase 1.3% in April after contracting 1.3% in the previous month, while orders excluding transports are projected to increase 0.5% following the 2.8% expansion in March. In addition, new home sales are expected to rise 3.4% to an annualized pace of 425K in April, which would be the fastest pace of growth since September 2008, and conditions are likely to improve going forward as the recovery gathers pace.

 

[MAIDIN]

ape bende semua ni . poning den baca .

kalau jadi IB untuk fxcm . berapa comisyen dia bagi ye ?

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 05.31.10

US Dollar Awaits the Return of Liquidity, NFPs and the G-20 Meeting

Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Neutral

- The OECD upgrades growth forecasts for the world’s largest economy, recommends policy tightening before year’s end
- Consumer confidence hits its highest level in two years, but details give reason for caution
- The EURUSD stalls just at the midpoint of its historical range

The impressive rally the dollar has forged over the past six months is coming up to another critical point of speculative, fundamental and technical reflection. It is perhaps more than coincidence that the benchmark currency would find a temporary level of equilibrium just ahead of the extended holiday weekend when volatility is expected to evaporate. Furthermore, this stalled progress has occurred at exactly the moment the market’s most liquid pair (EURUSD) came face to face with its historical midpoint (1.2135). No doubt there is ample fundamental reason that this should happen; but these market basic observations help establish the fact that market flow plays a critical part in determining the path any currency or asset establish. However, if we want to establish the probabilities for volatility and direction going forward, we need to look back to those fundamental considerations that threaten to put things back into motion. There are three primary concerns next week: a return of risk appetite trends; a redoubled focus on growth and interest rate expectations; and Friday’s non-farm payrolls.

Starting with the most expansive and recurring fundamental driver the dollar faces, underlying investor sentiment is difficult to properly benchmark. Come Monday, things may still be quiet as both the US and UK markets are offline for holiday. However, when things pick back up on Tuesday, we will have a precedence of high volatility and a steady stream of (relatively) discouraging news that has until recently found a very receptive and bearish crowd. Is this pause a sign that the masses are no longer worried about another lull in the global economy or a second financial crisis? If that is the case, there may be a significant reversal ahead of us. The dollar has rallied nearly 18 percent on a trade-weighted basis over the past six months. This is the performance of a safe haven. For those assets with a positive link to risk, we have seen dramatic deleveraging and declines in benchmarks to match. The most accessible driver for sentiment considerations going forward is a refocus on the EU’s troubles. However, now we have a possible Korean war, a Chinese asset bubble and sovereign debt concerns the world over among other things.

While many may simply attribute the greenback’s performance so far this year to its role as a safe haven and move on; they are missing an important fact. The economic and interest rate expectations for the US economy are better than many of its primary counterparts. For interest rates, the market may only be pricing in 42 basis points worth of hikes from the Fed over the coming 12 months; but that is still better than the ECB (40), BoE (26.3), SNB (9) and RBA (18). What’s more, this past week, the OECD would recommend movement on the central banks part before the end of the year and Board of Governors actually announced its schedule for Term Deposit Facilities.

Speaking of growth and interest rate speculations – not to mention risk appetite – the most prominent event over the coming week is Friday’s NFPs. This employment indicator has been hit or miss these past few months as the struggle that comes with absorbing 8 million lost jobs while meeting new entrants comes to light; but this month’s reading may be different. Looking at the Bloomberg consensus, we see a forecast for a 500,000 net increase. Though it may be a factor of calculation; this could still spark the animal instinct in traders. - JK

The Euro pared Friday’s rally as Fitch cut its AAA credit rating for Spain, and fears surrounding the European debt crisis could weigh on the single-currency over the following week as policy makers take unprecedented steps to stem the risks of contagion.

Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Neutral

- IMF Sees Spain Banking Sector “Under Pressures”
- ECB Says Bond Purchases Are “Temporary”
- Bundesbank President Says “Too Early” To Declare End To Financial Crisis

The Euro pared Friday’s rally as Fitch cut its AAA credit rating for Spain, and fears surrounding the European debt crisis could weigh on the single-currency over the following week as policy makers take unprecedented steps to stem the risks of contagion. At the same time, members of the European Central Bank have tried to talk down market speculation and said that its asset purchase program has not changed the Governing Council’s stance on monetary policy as the central bank reiterates that it will not be engaging in quantitative easing. Moreover, the ECB said that market developments will determine the timeframe for the government bond purchases as it aims to stabilize the financial markets, and acknowledged that the euro is trading within a normal range with the U.S. dollar, which should benefit the economy as it increases the competitiveness of European goods on a global scale.

As a result, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that the Governing Council should maintain a loose policy stance and support the economy “until late 2010,” and encouraged the governments operating under the fixed-exchange rate system to take further steps to balance the imbalances between the countries. Meanwhile, China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange voiced support for Europe and said “the euro zone will definitely overcome difficulty and safeguard the stable and healthy development of the financial markets,” and went onto say that the region will remain a key investment for the emerging economy as policy makers take the appropriate steps to contain the risks for contagion. At the same time, the Bundesbank expects Europe’s largest economy to grow “strongly” in the second-quarter as global trade picks up, and the improvement in the economic outlook paired with the rebound in global growth could support the euro over the near-term as fears surrounding the debt crisis tempers off.

Nevertheless, as the preliminary first-quarter GDP reading is expected to show the growth rate expanding 0.2% after unexpectedly holding flat during the last three-months of 2009, while the CPI estimate is projected to increase to an annualized pace of 1.7% in May, which would be the highest reading since November 2008. As growth and inflation improve, the central bank may show an increased willingness to normalize policy further this year, but the spillover effects of the financial crisis could weigh on the exchange rate over the near-term as the central bank remains dovish. - DS

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

British Pound Falls Back From Weekly High, Euro Maintains Tight Range

The British Pound pulled back from a weekly high of 1.4765 as investors scaled back their appetite for risk, and the exchange rate may continue to trend lower during the U.S. trade as market sentiment falters.

Talking Points
• Japanese Yen: Loses Ground Against the Majors
• Pound: Mortgage Approvals Expand for Second-Month
• Euro: Producer Prices Rise More-Than-Expected
• U.S. Dollar: Pending Home Sales on Tap

Meanwhile, the European Commission proposed to increase the supervision of credit rating agencies as they seek “increased transparency” for those firms, and said they will announce a detailed outlook of the plan later today as policy makers try to contain the debt crisis.

Nevertheless, a report by the Bank of England showed mortgage approvals in the U.K. increased 49.9K in April to top expectations for a 49.5K rise, while consumer credit unexpectedly slipped GBP 0.1B during the same period to mark the first decline since November. Meanwhile, a separate report showed construction expanding at the fastest pace since September 2007, with the PMI reading increasing to 58.5 in May from 58.2 the previous month, and conditions are likely to improve going forward as the expansion in monetary and fiscal policy continues to feed through the real economy. However, as households continue to face tightening credit conditions paired with the deterioration in the labor market, the ongoing weakness in the private-sector could lead the BoE to support the economy throughout the second-half of the year as the new government pledges to cut the budget deficit and scale back on public spending. As a result, investors are pricing a 3% chance for a 25bp rate hike this month according to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, and Governor Mervyn King may retain a dovish outlook for future policy as the central bank aims to encourage a sustainable recovery.

The Euro was little changed from the previous day as the exchange rate held within an 85pip range overnight, and the EUR/USD may continue to hold steady heading into the North American session as it maintains the narrow range carried over from the previous week. Meanwhile, producer prices in the Euro-Zone increased at an annualized pace of 2.8% in April to mark the fastest pace of growth since 2008, and rising price pressures could lead the European Central Bank to shift its economic assessment for the medium-term as rising commodity prices continues to stoke inflation. As the governments operating under the single-currency struggle to manage their public finances, the Governing Council has certainly taken unprecedented steps to support the economy, but mounting price pressures may lead the ECB with little room to maneuver as it maintains its primary mandate to ensure price stability.

U.S. dollar price action was mixed across the board, with the USD/JPY rallying to a high of 92.03, and the greenback could face increased volatility during the North American trade as economic docket is expected to reinforce an improved outlook for future growth. Pending home sales in the world’s largest economy is expected to expand another 5.0% in April after climbing 5.3% in the previous month, while domestic vehicle sales are projected to rebound to an annualized pace of 8.90M in May as households increase their willingness to spend. At the same time, another monthly contraction in the Challenger job cuts survey would certainly bode well for Friday’s non-farms payrolls report as market participants anticipate the U.S. labor market to add a whopping 513K jobs in May, while the annual rate of unemployment is expected to drop to 9.8% from an unexpected rise in 9.9% in April.

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

Euro and US Dollar Breakouts May Be Imminent on Indecisive Forex Sentiment

EURUSD – Euro Forecast Unclear, Major Breakout Imminent
GBPUSD – British Pound Outlook Turns Mixed on Sentiment
USDJPY – Japanese Yen’s Next Move is Key
USDCHF – Swiss Franc Expected to Weaken Further
USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast Calls for Gains
GBPJPY – British Pound Forecast Turns Bullish Against Yen

Sharply indecisive forex market price action has left currency trader sentiment on the Euro and US Dollar effectively neutral, warning that a return to volatility could force substantial moves in either direction through short-term trading. We have seen the EURUSD pair consolidate in an increasingly narrow range, and a neutral Speculative Sentiment Index ratio gives few clues on its next move. Yet such slowdowns in volatility are quite often met with substantial breakouts through subsequent price action. It will be critical to watch the next moves in major US Dollar pairs, and in the meantime traders should keep risk on trades relatively tight given the possibility of a spike in volatility.

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

U.S. Payrolls Surge 431K, Jobless Rate Falls to 9.7%

The U.S. economy added 431,000 jobs in May, much lower than economists’ expectations of 536,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent from 9.9 percent the previous month. As widely known, the jump in payrolls was largely attributed by government employment, whereas the private payrolls added merely 41,000 of the 431,000 gain.

Breakdown

Looking at the breakdown of the report, Americans dropped out of the labor force in May as the labor pool available slid from 21,211 to 20,707, while census workers jumped 411,000, slightly above our forecasts for a 400,000 increase. Indeed, the continuation of federal hiring may continue to weigh on the outlook for payroll figures as the unwinding of census workers in the near future will likely distort figures. Specifically, from the week beginning April 10th to the week ending May 22nd, the number of temporary 2010 census workers paid weekly has soared from 127,412 to 549,450.

Despite the weakness in the private sector, figures showed that average hourly earnings climbed 0.3 percent in May after rising a revised 0.1 percent the previous month, while annualized figures illustrated a 1.9 percent advancement. All in all, this converts to approximately 2.3 percent growth over the past 12 months, which is still indicative of a downward trend.

Going forward, the central bank is forecasting that the unemployment rate will fall back to 9.60 percent this year and tumble to 8.35 percent in 2011. In terms of rates, investors are weighing in a zero percent chance that the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs twenty five basis points at its next rate decision meeting on June 23rd as Americans who dropped out of the workforce continue their job hunt, while households face tightening lending standards.