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[FXCM-PR Rep]

US Dollar Sentiment Favors Losses Ahead of Pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls Report

Choppy U.S. dollar price action has led to mixed Forex trading crowd sentiment, moderating our conviction in calling for further USD weakness.

EURUSD – Euro Forecast Calls For Gains Against Dollar

GBPUSD – British Pound Likely to Rally Further

USDJPY – Japanese Yen Outlook Bullish on Sentiment

USDCHF – Swiss Franc May Strengthen against Dollar

USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast to Appreciate Against Greenback

GBPJPY – British Pound Direction Unclear Against Japanese Yen

View individual currency SSI charts in our FX Sentiment section

Interested in building your own SSI-based strategy? Request SSI data on our forex forum.

Continued US Dollar declines have been met with forex trading crowd buying, giving contrarian signal to stay short the USD versus the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and Canadian Dollar. Such one-sided crowd positioning underlines the extent to which the US Dollar has fallen and that short-term momentum remains firmly to the downside. Yet tomorrow’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report may very well prove pivotal for the short-term trajectory of the downtrodden USD. Several key Greenback pairs remain near key technical levels, and it will be critical to watch market reactions to said news event. Though overall momentum favors losses, direction can and change switch in an instant.

View an FXCM Expo presentation on the Speculative Sentiment Index for better understanding on how we use it in our trading.
ssi_table_story_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Sentiment Favors Losses Ahead of Pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls Report

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Tumble 131K

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls tumbled 131K in July after tumbling a revised 221K the month prior amid economists’ forecasts for a drop of 65K. Going into the North American trade, we may continue to see the U.S. dollar lose steam following the dismal report.

Yesterday, Monster.com released their employment index in which showed that online help-ads in July fell to 138 from 141 the in June. This reading is of great importance in that it reviews overall employee demand from online recruitment activity, reviewing more than 1500 web sites. Also worth nothing, jobless claims for the week ending July 31th rose 19,000 to 479,000. The rise in jobless figures suggests the recovery is losing steam.

All in all, the labor market faces major headwinds throughout the rest of the year as the recovery is tested. Employment will remain under pressure on the back of weak consumer and business confidence, while the unemployment rate is forecasted to advance to 10.0 percent over the medium term.

(Detailed analysis forthcoming....)

EURUSD Daily Chart

Source: FXCM’s Strategy Trader –Prepared by Michael Wright

Taking a look at the EURUSD, we may continue to see the pair push higher as price action remains confined by the rising channel. Furthermore, the pair has reversed course at the 50.0 percent Fibonacci retracement on the January 12th to June 7th downswing. At the same time, optimism continues to gain momentum as Euro-zone. Indeed, the ECB held rates are 1.00 percent in August; however, the central bank head appeared more optimistic about the bloc and the passage of the banks stress tests. Mr. Trichet went onto add that economic activity will be better than expected in September. Meanwhile, in the U.S., Ben Bernanke said that there is “unusual uncertainty” in economic activity, while the challenger report illustrated a meek rise in announced layoffs.

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 08.09.10

US Dollar Slips on NFPs but Risk Trends Could Rally the Currency

Euro Rally at Risk Ahead of German GDP Data, Major Technical Levels

Japanese Yen May Extend Gains As Retail Traders Look For a Correction

British Pound Torn Between Risk Trends, Monetary Policy Outlook

Canadian Dollar: Will Risk Trends Override Weakening Fundamentals?

Australian Dollar Momentum and Sentiment Point to Gains

New Zealand Dollar to Look Past Retail Sales, Trade on Risk Trends

Gold’s Best Run in Seven Months Still Lacks the Conviction of $2,000

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundam...Forex_Trading_Weekly_Forecast_080910.doc.html

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

US Dollar Rallies Ahead of Fed Interest Rate Decision

The US Dollar is rallying amid renewed risk aversion after bouncing off key technical support. Will the Fed interest rate decision on Tuesday aid the rally or send the greenback back to multi-month lows?

United States Federal Reserve (FED)

Weekly Update

The FOMC is widely expected to maintain the benchmark Federal Funds rate target between 0.00% and 0.25% in Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting . As usual, market participants will be examining the policy statement to get an idea of the Fed’s outlook for growth, inflation, and interest rates going forward. Since the last meeting, economic data out of the U.S. has notably weakened, with the labor market of particular concern. Risk appetite will likely get a boost if the Fed hints at additional monetary stimulus to support the economy. Otherwise, financial markets may be disappointed by lack of action from the central bank.

European Central Bank (ECB)

Weekly Update

ECB government bond purchases have almost ceased completely. In the prior week, a mere 9 million euros of bonds were bought by the central bank. Purchases in the thirteen weeks of the program have totaled nearly 60.5 billion euros. The yield on the Spanish 10 Year Government Bond has tumbled in recent weeks, suggesting that the program has been a success. From a high of 4.88% in mid-June, the Spanish yield now stands near 4.03%.

Bank of England (BOE)

Weekly Update

Market participants await the quarterly Inflation Report from the Bank of England on Wednesday. The central bank’s inflation outlook will be a critical factor in its interest rate decision making process.

Bank of Canada (BOC)

Weekly Update

BOC interest rate expectations have fallen sharply as growing evidence of a slowdown in the United States has emerged. The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner by far (73% of total exports go to the U.S.) and as exports account for 30% of Canada’s GDP, the impact will be felt. Markets expect 62 basis points of rate hikes over the next twelve months, down from 106 basis points in late-July.

Bank of Japan (BOJ)

Weekly Update

The BOJ held the benchmark overnight rate at 0.1% as expected. The central bank kept its economic assessment unchanged and said that the Japanese economy has been showing further signs of a moderate recovery. The BOJ acknowledged that global financial developments are a downside risk and that beating deflation continues to be a critical challenge.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)

Weekly Update

RBNZ interest rate expectations have tumbled since the dovish policy statement of two weeks ago. Recall that the central bank remarked that economic conditions had deteriorated and that “The pace and extent of further OCR increases is likely to be more moderate than was projected in the June Statement.” The RBNZ also tried to talk down the country’s currency, stating that ““The New Zealand dollar has appreciated in recent weeks. This appreciation is inconsistent with the softening in New Zealand’s economic outlook and moderation in our export commodity prices.” Markets expect that the RBNZ will hike rates by 72 basis points over the next twelve months, down from the 134 basis points that were expected prior to the dovish statement. Moreover, while markets expect the central bank to hike rates in its next meeting in September, conviction is low.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

Weekly Update

The RBA kept the cash rate target at 4.5% last week, describing the current monetary policy setting as “appropriate” considering “interest rates to borrowers [are] around their average levels of the past decade [while] growth is likely to be close to trend [and] inflation close to target.” RBA interest rate expectations remain depressed following a benign CPI reading on July 28th. Recall that Australian CPI rose 0.6% in the second quarter, well below expectations for a 1.0% increase.

Swiss National Bank (SNB)

Weekly Update

The EUR/CHF exchange rate continues to rebound off recent all-time lows. At 1.385, the pair is comfortably above those 1.3072 lows, which is undoubtedly encouraging to the Swiss National Bank. All else equal, a rising EUR/CHF exchange rate is positive for SNB rate hike expectations, as a weaker Swiss currency has a stimulative impact on the economy.

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

British Pound Falls as BoE Cuts Economic Forecast, Euro Pares August Rally

Dovish rhetoric from the Bank of England weighed on the British Pound, with the exchange rate extending the previous day’s decline to reach a low of 1.5666 during the European trade, but the overnight decline appears to be tapering off as price action hold above the 20-Day SMA at 1.5603.

Talking Points

* Japanese Yen: Rallies Across The Board On Risk Aversion
* Pound: Jobless Claims Falls Less-Than-Expected
* Euro: Pares Rally From Earlier This Month
* U.S. Dollar: Trade Balance, Monthly Budget Report on Tap

The BoE forecasts economic activity to expand at an annualized pace of 3% over the next two years and sees inflation falling back below 2% around 2012, but expects price growth to hold above target in the following year as a result of the rise in the value-added-tax (VAT).

Moreover, the central bank reiterated that the MPC stands ready to shift monetary policy “in either direction” as it maintains its dual mandate to ensure price stability and promote full-employment, and went onto say that the risks for growth remains weighed to the downside given the substantial margin of slack within the real economy. At the same time, BoE Governor Mervyn King noted that the central bank could increase the scope of its emergency program if conditions deteriorate further and maintained a cautious outlook for the region as households and businesses continue to face tightening credit conditions, and said the MPC’s current stance for monetary policy remains appropriate as the economic outlook remains clouded with uncertainties. As the central bank talks down the risks for inflation and continues to see a risk for a protracted recovery, the BoE is likely to support the real economy throughout the remainder of the year as the government tightens fiscal policy and targets the budget deficit. Nevertheless, the economic docket showed claims for unemployment benefits slipped 3.8K in July, which missed forecasts for a 17.0K decline, while the claimant count rate held steady at 4.5%, which was largely in-line with expectations.

The Euro continued to lose ground against its major counterparts, with the EUR/USD paring the advance from earlier this month to reach a low of 1.2988 during the overnight trade, and the single-currency appears to have carved out a near-term top ahead of 1.3400, which should lead to a corrective retracement as the daily RSI continues to fall back from overbought territory. With the euro-dollar slipping out of the downward trending channel, the break below 20-Day SMA (1.3039) could lead to a test of the 100-Day SMA at 1.2813 later this week, but price action could hold around 1.3000 throughout the remainder of the day after falling nearly 200 points from the open.

The greenback continued to gain ground against its currency counterparts, while the USD/JPY slipped to a fresh yearly low of 84.72 as the Japanese Yen strengthened across the board, and market sentiment is likely to dictate price action in the North American trade as the economic docket remains fairly light for Wednesday. Equity futures are foreshadowing a lower open for the U.S. market as market participants scale back their appetite for risk, and the shift in market sentiment may continue to drive the dollar higher as it benefits from the rise in safe-haven flows. Nevertheless, the trade deficit for the world’s largest economy is forecasted to narrow to $42.1B in June from $42.3B in the previous month, while the monthly budget statement is expected to show a shortfall of $169.0B in July following the $180.7B deficit in the month prior.

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

Euro, British Pound Lose Ground Ahead of U.S. Event Risks

The Euro pared the overnight rally despite the better-than-expected 2Q GDP report for the region, and the drop in market sentiment may continue to drive the exchange rate lower going into the North American session as equity futures forecast a lower open for the U.S. market.

Talking Points

* Japanese Yen: Mixed Against The Majors
* Pound: Maintains Upward Trending Channel From June
* Euro: 2Q GDP Expands At Faster Pace
* U.S. Dollar: Retail Sales, U. of Michigan Confidence on Tap
Economic activity in the Euro-Zone expanded 1.0% during the three-months through June, which exceeded expectations for a 0.7% rise, while the annualized rate increased 1.7% to mark the fastest pace of growth since 2008.

Moreover, the growth rate for Germany rose at the fastest since 1991 as GDP climbed 2.2% after expanding a revised 0.5% during the first three-months of the year, and conditions are likely to improve going forward as region continues to benefit from the rebound in global trade. However, a separate report showed the Euro-Zone trade deficit narrowed to a seasonally adjust EUR 1.6B in June from a revised EUR 2.7B in the previous month amid forecast for a EUR 0.7B shortfall, while the headline reading showed a EUR 2.4B surplus, which topped projections for a EUR 1.0B print. However, European Union spokesman Amadeu Altafaj said that the economy remains “fragile,” although the recovery remains on track, and went onto say that the tightening in fiscal policy must be “gradual” and “differentiated” to avoid disturbing the rebound in economic activity. As the governments operating under the fixed-exchange rate system take unprecedented steps to curb the budget deficit and cut public spending, the European Central Bank is likely to support the real economy throughout the second-half of the year, and President Jean-Claude Trichet is likely to hold a dovish outlook for future policy as he expects inflation to remain subdued going forward.

The British Pound fell back from a high of 1.5678 following the drop in risk appetite, but the GBP/USD may maintain the upward trending channel from the June low (1.4346) as price action continues to hold above the 200-Day SMA at 1.5513. However, Cable is likely to face increase volatility over the following week as the Bank of England is scheduled to release its policy meeting minutes on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT, and the central bank is likely to maintain a cautious outlook for the region as it lowers its growth forecast and expects the ongoing slack within the real economy to weigh on price growth going forward. At the same time, MPC board member Andrew Sentance is likely to dissent against the majority and push for a 25bp rate hike for the third month as inflation is expected to hold above the 2% target in 2011, and comments from the central bank should stoke a shift in the exchange rate as investors weigh the prospects for future policy.

U.S. dollar price action was mixed during the European trade, with the USD/JPY falling back to a low of 85.56, and the greenback is likely to face increased volatility going into the North American session as the economic docket is expected to reinforce an improved outlook for future growth. Retail spending in the world’s largest economy is forecasted to increase 0.5% in July following the 0.5% contraction in the month prior, while the headline reading for inflation is projected to bound back to an annualized pace of 1.2% during the same period from 1.1% in June. In addition, household sentiment is anticipated to improve in August as market participants expect the U. of Michigan confidence survey to increase to 69.0 from 67.8 in the previous month, and the slew of data could spark a rebound in risk appetite, which could weigh on the dollar as risk trends continue to drive price action in the currency market.

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

FXCM Traders Can Now Benefit from Price Improvements on Limit Orders

New York—August 13, 2010— FXCM recently enhanced its No Dealing Desk forex execution model by adding Price Improvements†. As of July 12, 2010, if a better price becomes available before your limit order executes, FXCM’s No Dealing Desk execution engine will automatically give you the best available price.

The Old
A common inconvenience to most No Dealing Desk execution models is that limit and limit entry orders always fill at the limit price—even if the market price gapped or spiked favorably through it. At the same time, stop orders can fill at a worse price.

The New
Now with FXCM Price Improvements, your limit and limit entry orders can receive positive slippage. That means you can potentially make more money if the market gaps or spikes favorably through your limit price. This is especially true in situations where the market is moving fast like during weekend gaps or around news events.

How Does It Work?
To illustrate how a Price Improvement can mean more money for you, consider the following example.

Friday: You decide to hold a 10K EUR/USD buy position through the weekend, in light of a G20 meeting on Saturday. You create a limit order on the trade at 1.3260 anticipating a possible gap when trading opens.

Saturday: The G20 meeting is very positive for the Euro-zone, which could help your trade.

Sunday: As trading opens, the EUR/USD price gaps through your limit price of 1.3260, from Friday’s close of 1.3242 to 1.3275.

The Old: Previously, your limit would have filled at your requested limit price of 1.3260.

The New: Now, with FXCM Price Improvements, since the market gapped through your limit price, your trade could close at 1.3275, providing you with a Price Improvement of up to 15 pips.

“Exchange traded instruments already benefit from positive slippage.” said Drew Niv, CEO of FXCM. “With FXCM Price Improvements, FXCM is bringing the forex industry more in line with these common practices, making trading even more fair for our clients.”

To see Price Improvements in action, FXCM recommends using limit orders to close trades. Easily see when you get a Price Improvement by comparing the limit price that you requested with the limit price where you were filled.

Try a FXCM account today Open a Live Forex Account


FXCM Holdings, LLC Facts

FXCM Holdings, LLC is a leading global forex and CFD broker* that caters to both retail and institutional markets. Founded in 1999, FXCM is one of the largest brokers, regulated by several of the world’s most respected financial authorities.

At the heart of FXCM’s client offering is No Dealing Desk forex trading. Clients have market access to some of the world's largest liquidity providers which enables FXCM to offer clients spreads as low as 1 pip on major crosses. Clients also have the benefits of mobile trading, one-click order execution and trading from real-time charts. FXCM LTD’s CFD product offers no re-quote trading and allows traders to trade oil, gold, silver, and stock indices, along with forex on one platform. In addition to currency and CFD trading*, FXCM offers educational courses on forex trading, and provides free news and research through DailyFX.com.

†All price improvements are dependent upon available liquidity.

*Please be advised that CFD accounts are not available to residents of the U.S. or its territories. Additionally, FXCM LTD offers spread betting exclusively to UK residents. Residents of other countries are NOT eligible.

Trading foreign exchange and CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all.Read full disclaimer.

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

Euro Halts Five-Day Decline, British Pound Pares Selloff To Hold Above 1.5600

Talking Points

* Japanese Yen: Advances Against Most Currencies
* Pound: Home Prices Fall For Second Month
* Euro: Consumer Prices Contract in July
* U.S. Dollar: Empire Manufacturing, NAHB Housing Index on Tap

However, as equity futures foreshadow a lower open for the U.S. market, a shift in market sentiment could lead the EUR/USD to pare the advance and lead the exchange rate to test the 50-Day SMA (1.2668) for near-term support as risk trends continue to dictate price action in the currency market.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank board member Juergen Stark held an improved outlook for the region and supported the tightening in fiscal policy according to an article in the Financial Times, and said that the “adjustments increase the growth potential” for the region as the economic recovery gathers pace. At the same time, Ireland’s central bank Governor Patrick Honohan said he expects to see a “rather slow” recovery in Europe during an interview with Reuters, and went onto say that the European Union “is prepared to use fiscal resources to take care of member countries with fiscal imbalances.” As policy makers withdraw fiscal support from the economy and target the budget deficit, the ECB is likely to maintain a loose policy throughout the remainder of the year, and central bank President Jean-Claude Trichet may hold a dovish outlook going into 2011 as he expects to see an “uneven” recovery going forward. Nevertheless, the economic docket showed consumer prices in the Euro-Zone slipped 0.3% in July amid projections for a 0.4% decline, while the headline reading for inflation increased to an annualized pace of 1.7% from 1.4% in the previous month, which was largely in-line with forecasts.

The British Pound pared the overnight decline as price action continued to hold above the 200-Day SMA at 1.5508, and the exchange rate could maintain the narrow range going into North American trade as the GBP/USD struggles to push back above the 20-Day SMA at 1.5640. With market participants waiting for Bank of England policy meeting minutes due out on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT, the pound-dollar may hold steady throughout the first-half of the week as investors weigh the prospects for future policy, but there could be a muted reaction to the central bank’s comments as traders continue to digest the quarter inflation statement released earlier this month. Nevertheless, a report by Rightmove showed home prices in the U.K. slipped 1.7% in August after contracting 0.6% in the previous month, while values bounced back to an annualized pace of 4.3% from 3.7% in the month prior, and the pullback in price growth could lead the BoE to support the economy throughout the remainder of the year as Governor Mervyn King talks down the risks for inflation.

U.S. dollar price action was mixed during the European trade, with the USD/JPY paring last week’s advance to a reach a low of 85.40, but the drop in risk appetite could stoke a rally in the greenback as the reserve-currency continues to benefit from safe-haven flows. However, the economic docket is expected to show the Empire Manufacturing gauge rebound to 8.30 in August from 5.08 in the previous month, while the NAHB housing market index is forecasted to increase to 15 from 14 during the same period, and the data could spur a rise in market sentiment as the outlook for future growth improves.

 

[FXCM-PR Rep]

FXCM Launches Forex Code Source for Programmers

FXCM Holdings, LLC, a global leader in online forex and CFD trading*, is pleased to introduce Forex Code Source, an online resource center where clients can download over 100 of the most popular technical indicators and several of the most consistent automated strategies. Forex Code Source also hosts a variety of educational materials covering how to program indicators and strategies for FXCM’s Strategy Trader trading platform, the IntelliChart Desktop package, and EFS compatible trading products.

With the recent release of Strategy Trader, FXCM’s powerful and highly flexible automated trading platform, and the revamping of FXCM Programming Services, an in-house automated system coding service, we believe that FXCM is now widely recognized throughout the retail forex trading industry as an innovator in automated trading solutions. Forex Code Source, a one-stop-shop for coding resources and instructional materials, is yet another tool FXCM offers traders interested in implementing the automated strategies and custom indicators they need in order to take their trading to the next level.

Forex Code Source offers:

• FREE Open Source Code for RSI, MACD, BollingerBands, Absolute Breadth Function, and many other indicators.

• Educational materials on how to build custom indicators and automated strategies for FXCM’s Strategy Trader, Meta Trader 4, and IntelliChart Desktop.

• FXCM API’s available by request and can be coded in multiple programming languages.

Start benefitting from Forex Source code, here!

About FXCM

Forex Capital Markets (FXCM) is a leading global forex and CFD broker* that caters to both retail and institutional markets. Founded in 1999, FXCM is one of the largest brokers, regulated by several of the world's most respected financial authorities.
At the heart of FXCM's client offering is No Dealing Desk forex trading. Clients have market access to some of the world's largest liquidity providers; which enables FXCM to offer clients spreads as low as 1 pip on major crosses. Clients also have the benefits of mobile trading, one-click order execution and trading from real-time charts. FXCM's CFD product* offers no re-quote trading and allows traders to trade oil, gold, silver, and stock indices, along with forex on one platform. In addition to currency and CFD trading, FXCM offers educational courses on forex trading and provides free news and research through DailyFX.com.

*Please be advised that CFD accounts are not available to residents of the U.S. or its territories. Additionally, FXCM LTD offers spread betting exclusively to UK residents. Residents of other countries are NOT eligible.
Trading foreign exchange and CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all. Read full disclaimer.

Press Contact:
Maria Ramos
Public Relations
Email:[email protected]
Phone: 646.432.2299

 

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