Futures Stock Daily Commentary

[adie]

Malaysia Daily 10/12/14

SECTOR UPDATE
MY Plantations: Maintain Neutral
Dragged by low crude oil price
•Brent crude oil price at USD65/bbl has been a major drag in the recovery of CPO price given the biofuel link.
•A weaker USD/MYR rate at 3.50 has cushioned the impact of lower Brent as CPO price is relatively stable at ~MYR2,200/t.
•There is a 7-10% downside risk to our 2015 CPO ASP forecast of MYR2,600/t as we now expect Brent crude oil price to average USD70-75/bbl in 2015. Stay NEUTRAL.

COMPANY UPDATE
Hartalega: Maintain Buy
Rising appetite for defensive stocks Shariah-compliant
•Defensive earnings profile and beneficiary of a stronger USD.
•Solid EPS growth of 31% in FY3/16 will overshadow its peers.
•Upgrade to BUY with higher TP of MYR8.50 (21.5x 2016 PER).

IJM Corporation: Maintain Buy
On track for record orderbook Shariah-compliant
•Another MYR435m new building construction job lifts outstanding order book to MYR2.74b.
•Orderbook to chalk record high at MYR6.6b with WCE and Kuantan Port expansion jobs.
•Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of MYR7.40.

RESULTS REVIEW
SapuraKencana Petroleum: Maintain Buy
No surprises
•9MFY1/15 in line; 2sen DPS a positive surprise.
•Delay in GSA signing to 1QCY15 not a major concern; aims to be Shariah compliant.
•Maintain BUY and MYR3.80 SOP-based TP.

Technicals
Persistent global market weakness
The FBMKLCI fell 2.74 points to 1,738.10 yesterday, while the FBMEMAS and FBM100 also closed lower by 39.60 points and 28.47 points, respectively. We recommend a “Sell on Rallies” stance for the index.
Trading idea is a Take profit call on WCT with downside target areas at MYR1.49 & MYR1.30.

Other Local News
Felda Global Ventures Holdings (FGV): Set to triple biodiesel production by 2016. The country's largest biodiesel exporter will spend MYR165.3m on its expansion plan at its Kuantan biodiesel plant with the aim of increasing FGV's output of palm methyl ester (PME) to 350,000 tonnes by 2016 from the current 100,000 tonnes annually. FGV has also revealed its first successful use of B30 biodiesel fuel in commercial vehicles, with the plans to introduce B100 fully biodiesel fuels in all its commercial vehicles in three years. (Source: The New Straits Times)

AirAsia X: 'Furiously' cutting costs, says Fernandes. AirAsia X is furiously cutting cost to simplify its business model according to group CEO Tan Sri Tony Fernandes. Recent reports have indicated that the airline will discontinue its Kuala Lumpur-Adelaide route from Jan 25 next year but will return to new routes in 2016 with possible destinations like London and Hawaii. He added that the capacity will be wet leased (hire of aircraft with a crew) from Saudi Arabia involving two planes. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Global Islamic Bond Sales: Sukuk record scuppered as 1MDB delays 2014 sale. Global Islamic bond sales look set to miss out on a record year after Malaysia's sovereign wealth fund postponed what would have been 2014's biggest offering. Issuance to date is USD2.1b (MYR7.32b) shy of the unprecedented USD46.8b in 2012 and more than last year's USD43.1b total. 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) has put off a plan on Monday to sell the equivalent USD2.4b sukuk until the first half of 2015, according to two people with knowledge of the deal. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Only World Group Holdings: IPO oversubscribed. The public portion of Only World Group Holdings Bhd's initial public offering (IPO) comprising 9.25m shares was oversubscribed by 6.91 times according to Only World Group which is enroute to list on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia on Dec 18. The IPO will raise some MYR50m which will mostly be used for refurbishment of five levels of in Komtar Tower, Penang (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Outside Malaysia
U.K: Manufacturing output unexpectedly fell for the first time in five months in October, highlighting the risks to the economic recovery. Output fell 0.7% MoM after rising 0.6% MoM in September, the Office for National Statistics said. Total industrial production fell 0.1% MoM. (Source: Bloomberg)

China: Leaders stress 'new normal' theme at key economy meeting. China's leaders gathered for an annual meeting to map their economic plans for next year under the theme of "new normal," a phrase adopted by President Xi Jinping to reflect a push to manage slower expansion. The Central Economic Work Conference, held at the end of each year, sets the tone for macroeconomic policy for the next 12 months. The biggest decision from the meeting, which the official Xinhua News Agency said will likely be the 2015 growth target. That number will be announced at the start of the annual National People's Congress in March. (Source: Bloomberg)

Japan: BOJ's loss is households' gain as oil damps prices. Tumbling oil prices are bad news and good news for Japan’s economy as the central bank looks set to miss inflation targets, while households gain some respite from
wages lagging living costs. The nation's implied forward yield, an indicator of traders' expectations for the two-year note rate in 2016, dropped to 0.0286% last week amid a slump in crude prices to a five-year low. That is the least in bond data going back to March 2007, suggesting the market doesn't expect inflation pressure to push up yields. (Source: Bloomberg)

Australia: Business sentiment dropped to the lowest level since before last year's election, National Australia Bank Ltd. said as its economists predicted the central bank will cut interest rates twice in 2015. The confidence index dropped to 1 in November from a revised 5 a month earlier. The business conditions gauge, a measure of hiring, sales and profits, slid to 5 from 13. (Source: Bloomberg)

 

[adie]

Futures Crude Palm Oil 10/12/14

Technical Outlook
CPO February futures gapped down, briefly recovered to day high at RM 2,168 then gradually declined with a last hour sell-off touching day low at RM 2,119 to settle – 41 points at RM 2,130. Total volume of 43,120 lots was traded with open interest at 198,089 contracts held.
The market opened in tandem with losses in crude oil and soybean oil prices. Despite some bargain hunting support on a sharp dip, the intraday rally was unsustainable as bearish interest was overwhelming on overall weak fundamental sentiments and uncertainties surrounding latest palm oil statistics.
With chart displaying an “inverted hammer” pattern and most trend indicators in bearish mode, the long term outlook is slanted to potential downside bias. A brief consolidation may be in order today as market forces seek fresh statistics for next market direction.
We peg resistance at RM 2,140 with psychological support seen at RM 2,100. However, if local fundamentals are interpreted more bearish than bullish, a breakout below RM 2,109 by the closing is viewed as a weak signal.
Market view: Prices could trade within the resistance and support range.

Palm Oil
Palm oil futures for February tumbled 1.9% Ringgit per metric ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, lowest level at close for most active contract since December 1st. As crude oil gets cheaper, the biofuel demand will be slightly weaker.
Refined palm oil for May delivery ends with a dipped of 0.6% at 5,010 Yuan per metric ton on Dalian Commodity Exchange.
Soybean Oil
Soybeans for January delivery increases as much as 0.3% to $10.525 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the highest close for most active contract since November 26th. Soybean oil for January gained 0.44% to close at $31.99 per pound. Soybeans extend advance to the highest in two weeks as wheat drops.
Aside from that, Representatives from six Chinese soybean buying companies will sign agreements to purchase U.S oilseed, according to American soybean groups.
As at 10.00 am, soybean oil is trading at $31.91 a dip of 0.25% from previous closing price while soybean is trading at $$10.5275 a gained of 0.33% from previous closing price.

 

[adie]

Futures FKLI Index 11/12/14

Spot month futures contract finally had its firm rebound yesterday and has seen prices moved above the shorter term hourly 40 moving average indicating bargain hunters are moving in. Buying crossover is noted in the same hourly chart timeframe with MA10 crossing above MA20 and looking to make further headwinds above hourly MA40. Over at the daily chart market action seemingly in reaction to bullish signals in Tuesday candle formation of long lower shadow almost identical to a Hammer. RSI line has hooked up indicating selling momentum seem waning. The rebound rally though fell short of closing above 1st December low of 1,764.0.
However caution to be warranted for Santa Clause rally hopeful as another round of sell-off in crude oil prices could translate into resumption of selling in Oil and Gas sector putting pressure on to the underlying index. Support points to look are at 1,755.0 and hourly MA40 1,745.5. Resistance should capped at 1,764.0 and daily MA10 1,769.0

Local Markets
Shares rose rebounding from sharp losses in past trading days as bargain hunter for badly beaten stocks starts jumping in. PPB Group Bhd and SIme Darby lead gains in the index after crude palm oil prices rebounded on industry data which showed a slightly better than estimated inventory and export numbers. The benchmark FBM KLCI index jumped 27.42 points higher to close at 1,732.76
Index futures contract surged in trading tracking the rebound in cash market and has seen the spot month contract closing just off the day high. The December settlement jumped 30 points higher to close at 1,764.0 after touching lower in the morning at 1,731.5 Total volume traded were recorded at 9,919 lots while open interest increase to 28,788 contracts from 27,248 the previous day.
Asian Region
Japan stocks fall as Yen continues to rebound stronger after weeks of decline causing exporters from auto to tire manufacturer counter lower. Bridgestone Corp and Yokohama Rubber Co. were both tire makers shares who led losses in the sector while Toyota Motor Corp slid 3% at close. The TOPIX index declined 2% to close at 1,406.83 while Nikkei 225 index settled 2.3% lower at 17,412.58
China shares rose recovering from previous day sharp dip after inflation report which was short of estimates boosted speculation of further stimulus by China. Producer Price Index came in 2.7% lower in November from a year earlier while consumer inflation slowed to a 1.4% against expectation of 1.6% The Shanghai Composite index added 2.9% to close at 2,940.01
Stocks in Hong Kong rose lead by Casino shares pushing the index higher after temporary touching 0.6% lower on intraday trade. Gaming shares like Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China rose to lead gains while new listing CGN Power had a strong start in trading today. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.2% to settle at 23,524.52
US Market
Benchmark indices fall with the S&P 500 index having its worst decline in seven weeks after energy stocks resume its sell-off on OPEC’s move to cut demand estimate for next year. Stocks like ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Group all lost more than 2% on sinking crude oil prices after OPEC cuts its forecast of crude use in 2015 to its lowest in 12 years.
At the closing bell, the S&P 500 lost 1.6% to settle at 2,026.14 while Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 268.05 points or 1.5% at 17,533.15

 

[adie]

Malaysia Daily 11/12/14

COMPANY UPDATE
RHB Capital: Maintain Buy
Appeal unsuccessful
•Appeal for EPF to vote on CIMB-RHB-MBSB deal unsuccessful.
•Not surprising, expect management to soldier through.
•Maintain BUY with unchanged TP of MYR9.45 on a post-merger FY15 P/BV peg of 1.2x (proforma ROE: 10.4%)

QL Resources: Maintain Hold
Eggs failed to hatch Shariah-compliant
•General offer for Lay Hong is unsuccessful; QL will have 38% stake after returning the acceptances.
•Net gearing rises marginally, neutral impact on earnings.
•Maintain HOLD with an unchanged TP of MYR3.20.

RESULTS REVIEW
Eco World Development: Maintain Buy
Sets MYR3b sales target
•13MFY10/14 net profit of MYR7.2m was above our expectation.
•Corporate restructuring exercises to complete by 2QCY15.
•Lowering earnings forecasts on lower margin assumptions, lowering TP to MYR5.84 TP (0.83x P/RNAV). Maintain BUY.

REGIONAL SECTOR UPDATE
Plantations: Maintain Neutral
Stockpile peaked in Nov 2014
•As Malaysia’s palm oil inventory has likely peaked for 2014, the focus will now shift to low production months in 1H15.
•Following the recent slump in Brent crude oil price, there is a 7-10% downside risk to our 2015 CPO ASP forecast of MYR2,600/t.
•We still expect palm oil to make a seasonal price recovery, trending higher to MYR2,400-2,500/t by end-1Q15. Stay Neutral on the sector.

Technicals
Low volume pyrrhic window dressing
The FBMKLCI rose 27.42 points to 1,765.52 yesterday, while the FBMEMAS and FBM100 also closed higher by 147.94 points and 147.58 points, respectively. We recommend a “Range Trading”stance for the index.
Trading idea is a Take profit call on PMETAL with downside target areas at MYR2.57 & MYR2.35.

Other Local News
Kulim (Malaysia): Unit to buy 60pc stake in CSE. Kulim's energy unit, Kulim Energy Nusantara Sdn Bhd plans to buy a 60% stake in PT Citra Sarana Energi (CSE) for USD133.55m cash (MYR462.68m) from PT Wisea Inspirasi Sumatera (WIS) and PT Inti Energi Sejahtera (IntiEnergi). The proposed business acquisition is expected to be completed in the first half of next year with WIS and IntiEnergi owning 32% and 8% stake respectively in CSE. (Source: New Straits Times) Kulim managing director Ahamad Mohamad also mentioned that the group has obtained the green light from the Indonesian authorities to drill three additional wells next year. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Petroliam Nasional (Petronas): Signs USD550m shale venture with YPF in Argentina. Petronas has signed a USD550m (MYR1.9b) deal with YPF SA of Argentina to drill fields at the world's fourth-largest shale oil deposit in Patagonia Vaca Muerta, Buenos Aires. Under the terms of the arrangement, Petronas will invest USD475m in an initial phase of 35 wells to be operated by YPF with spending to be shared equally if the venture moves beyond the pilot project. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Telekom Malaysia (TM): 'GST's impact on services will be short-lived'. TM group CEO Tan Sri Zamzamzairani Mohd Isa has mentioned that the consumption tax is unlikely to affect demand for high speed Internet services considering the need for Internet and social media is now a pressing one. He also mentioned that TM's capital expenditure (capex) allocation towards projects in line with phase 2 of the high-speed broadband (HSBB2) project will not affect its dividend payout. TM is currently still awaiting the official letter from the government for HSBB2, which is to be built at MYR1.8b. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

IOI Properties: No plan to manage Taipei 101. IOI Properties Group has stated that it will not seek to manage the iconic Taipei 101 building if a plan to buy a stake from Taiwan's Ting Hsin International Group goes through. IOI Properties stressed that it had no political intent in buying the stake in the building and its proposed investment was merely commercial, back by the confidence in Taiwan's long term development. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Outside Malaysia
U.S: Budget deficit narrows in November as employment growth accelerates. Outlays exceeded receipts by USD 56.8b last month, compared with a USD 135.2b shortfall a year earlier, the department said in a report released in Washington. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: Job openings point to sustained employment gains. The U.S. labor market continued to show traction in October as job openings held near the highest level in almost 14 years and the number of people quitting and getting hired remained elevated. The number of positions waiting to be filled rose 149,000 to 4.83 million, the second-highest level since January 2001, the Labor Department reported in Washington. Other reports showed small companies were becoming more optimistic and wholesalers boosted stockpiles. (Source: Bloomberg)

China: Deflation risk deepens signaling room for easing. Factory-gate deflation deepened and consumer prices climbed at the slowest pace since 2009, signaling room for further monetary easing. The producer-price index dropped 2.7% YoY in November, a record 33rd-straight decline and the biggest fall since mid-last year. Consumer prices rose 1.4% YoY, compared with the 1.6% YoY increase in October. (Source: Bloomberg)

 

[adie]

Futures Crude Palm Oil 11/12/14

Technical Outlook
CPO February futures gapped up, touched to day high at RM 2,179 and touched the low at 2138 before closing at 2,175 with a gained of 45 points or 2.11%. Total volume of 56,489 lots was traded with open interest at 192,781 contracts held.
The market traded on the speculation of the Intertek and MPOB data, with a release of a new bull fundamental catalyst, the market traded on the upside bias for the day.However, the market is currently experience a restistance at 2184 level.
With the slumped in crude oil prices as well as a dip on soybean and soybean oil prices, the palm oil prices could mimic its correlated products price movement and might end in red for today trading session. Technical indicators such as MACD and Stochastic has hooked down giving clues that the momentum on selling is stronger than buying.
The market resistance is currently pegged at 2184 further up to 2240 and the market support is placed at 2102 further down to 2062.

Palm Oil
Palm oil futures for February delivery advaned 2.1% to 2,174 Ringgit per metric ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, biggest gain at close since October 9th. Intertek reported that for the first 10 days on December, palm exports has increased 1.7% to 407,425 metric ton.
Refined palm for May closes with a gained of 0.7% at 5,044 Yuan per metric ton on Dalian Commodity Exchange.
Soybean Oil
Corn futures fell after the U.S government raised its outlook for global supplies as an expanding grain glut drives down global food costs. Soybeans declined for the first time in six sessions.
Bigger global grain and oilseed supplies have pushed world food costs to a four year low as delcines in commdity prices help keep a lid on inflation. Corn and soybean futures heading for second straight annual losses, the longest slide since 1999.
Soybean fell 1.64% to close at $10.32 a bushel while the soybean oil fell 0.75% to close at $31.75 a pound.

 

[adie]

Futures FKLI Index 12/12/14

Technical Outlook
Spot month contract prices gave up most gains from Wednesday no thanks to crude oil prices, and significantly wiping out any previous further correction sign. Market action yesterday saw prices went back below the hourly 40 moving average line indicating a bearish sentiment in coming days. This is also supported by a possible hourly MACD selling crossover. On the daily chart analysis, a study on major correction rebound points using the swing down from 4th July high of 1,898.0 to low 1,721.0 on the 9th December we could see (though not accurately) pointing to Wednesday’s high of 1,765.0 to be a major resistance level. However with a long upper shadow on yesterday candle could further indicate downside for today. Stochastic and RSI momentum remains in selling bias though the former is on an oversold level.
With oil prices continue to plunge and now below $60 per barrel we could see more selling interest for today. Support should peg at Wednesday low of 1,731.5 and further down back at 1,721.0. Any rebound should cap at hourly MA40 1,743.5 and 1,757.0

Local Markets
Local stocks falls led by Oil and Gas (O&G) sector after a sharp fall in crude oil prices dampen investors sentiment who were betting on a rebound momentum. The benchmark index gave up most of previous day gain with the likes of Petronas Dagangan Bhd and Petronas Gas Bhd pulling leading decliners. The FBM KLCI index plunged 1.19% or 20.95 points to close at 1,744.57 after jumping 27.42 points on Wednesday. Decliners thump gainers 626 to 178 while 243 counters were unchanged.
Index futures contract prices plunged across the board tracking the underlying market with the spot month contract falling sharply in the last hour of trade. The December contract settlement lost 22 points or 1.25% to close the day at 1,742.0 a two point discount to the cash and a point just off the day low. Total volume were recorded at 7,781 lots while open interest decline to 27,023 contracts from 28,788 the previous day.
Asian Region
Stocks in Japan fall with the benchmark index dragged down by energy shares after crude oil prices extended its plunge overnight. Oil explorer Inpex Corp fell 1.1% while JGC Corp lost 2.2%. The rebound in Yen also led to losses for export reliant companies with Honda Motor Co extending to fourth straight losses. The TOPIX index declined 0.7% to close at 1,397.04 while Nikkei 225 index lost 0.9% to settle at 17,257.40
Stocks in Hong Kong fell as energy shares continue its slump after Saudi Arabia questioned the need for a cut in output leading to another sell-off in crude oil prices. Casino shares also decline after the industry getting a cut in forecast by Nomura on 2015 gross revenue. Hang Seng index falls to its lowest close since October recording a loss of 0.9% for the day settling at 23,312.54
China stocks drops while recording its biggest swings in five years as oil producers and brokerage houses fall. Losses in energy sector tracks the drop in crude prices while brokers decline due to concern recent gains were excessive. The Shanghai Composite index settled 0.5% lower after gaining 0.9% and touching 1.6% trading range before closing at 2,925.74
US Market
Wall Street closed higher rebounding from declines in previous sessions as positive economic data overshadows further losses in oil prices. Retail sales in the U.S. rose the most in eight months while jobless claim fell 3,000 to 294,000 for the week ended December 6th continuing a trend below 300,000 levels for the past 13 weeks. Crude oil prices resume its sell-off dropping below $60 for the first time since 2009 hitting energy shares.
The S&P 500 index closed 0.5% higher at 2,035.33 while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% or 63.19 points settling at 17,596.34

 

[adie]

Malaysia Daily 12/12/14

COMPANY UPDATE
Bumi Armada: Maintain Buy
Bags Madura FPSO contract, finally Shariah-compliant
•10+5 year charter for USD1.18b; to start ops in 4Q16.
•Madura FPSO valuations are already in our MYR2.05 SOP-TP.
•A potential privatisation candidate, on depressed valuations

RESULTS REVIEW
Astro Malaysia: Maintain Hold
Resilient but not invulnerable
•3QFY1/15 results were below expectations.
•Peculiarly, number of subscribers actually eased.
•Cut earnings estimates by 4-10%, TP by 3%. Maintain HOLD.

ECONOMICS
Industrial Production (IP), Oct 2014
Continued growth amid headwinds
•Industrial production growth momentum was sustained in Oct 2014
•Thanks to surge in mining output amid slower growth in manufacturing
•Manufacturing and mining sector outlook will be challenging amid uneven global economy, slowing local economy and low crude oil price.

Technicals
Window dressing rebounds look shallow
The FBMKLCI tumbled 20.95 points to 1,744.57 yesterday, while the FBMEMAS and FBM100 also closed lower by 135.81 points and 129.34 points, respectively. We recommend a “Sell on Rallies” stance for the index.
Trading idea is a Take Profit call on TAMBUN with downside target areas at MYR1.61 & MYR1.12.

Other Local News
1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB): Delays MYR8.4b sukuk to 2015. 1MDB has postponed the sale of up to MYR8.4b Islamic bonds to 2015 as the state fund is seeking an extension of up to two months on the construction of USD3.2b (MYR11.2b) power plant project it won with partner Mitsui & Co Ltd in February. (Source: The New Straits Times)

Felda Global Ventures Holdings (FGV): Plan agriculture venture in China. FGV is set to mark a new foray in China by collaborating with Shenzhen Agricultural Products Co Ltd (SZAP), which specializes in the business of e-commerce and supply chain services in agricultural products based in Shenzen. (Source: The New Straits Times)

AirAsia: To hedge more of jet fuel needs. AirAsia, which is currently only 12% hedged is looking to hedge more of its jet fuel needs in a bid to reduce its overall operating costs amid lower fuel prices according to founder Tan Sir Tony Fernandes. He also mentioned that AirAsia Group will be considering buying new aircrafts in tandem with its expansion from its current fleet of 180 planes. (Source: The New Straits Times)

Petroliam Nasional (Petronas): To review all existing projects to cut costs. Petronas will review all existing projects for its upstream and downstream businesses, including those in the pipeline in a bid to cut costs amid a prolonged period of much cheaper oil prices. Petronas vice-president for upstream international Sharbini Suhaili also mentioned that the group is looking to divest its stakes in Mauritania and Cameroon as part of its international growth plan to upgrade its portfolio. Petronas remain optimistic about maintaining its production growth of 1% to 2% next year. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Berjaya Corporation: Ups shares in REDtone. Berjaya Corporation has increased its stake in REDtone International Bhd to 20.05% from 12.39% at 70 sen per share against yesterday's closing price of 71.5 sen. The acquisition was done through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Juara Sejati Sdn Bhd for MYR29.15m cash. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Manufacturers recorded sales in excess of MYR55b for a third month in Oct 2014, an increase of +2.4% YoY (Sep 2014: +4.2% YoY). The "Petroleum, Chemical, Rubber & Plastic Products" segment surpassed "E&E" as the primary growth driver in Oct 2014 as sales in both clusters rose by +3.4% YoY (Sep 2014: +3.2% YoY) and +1.4% YoY (Sep 2014: +3.9% YoY) respectively. Manufacturing employment stood at 1.028 million workers (down from its recent peak of 1.033 million in Aug 2014) as growth moderated for a second month to +1.4% YoY (Sep 2014: +1.6+ YoY). Salaries and wages however improved by +4.9% YoY in Oct 2014 (Sep 2014: +3.0% YoY). (Source: DOS Malaysia; Maybank KE)

Outside Malaysia
U.S: Retail sales increase by most in eight months as gains in wages and cheaper fuel gave American consumers the means to shop for more holiday gifts in November. The 0.7% MoM increase in purchases followed a 0.5% MoM advance in October that was larger than previously reported, Commerce Department figures showed in Washington. Demand improved in 11 of 13 major store categories. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: Household wealth fell in third quarter on stocks. Net worth for households and non-profit groups fell by
USD 140.9b in the third quarter, or 0.2% QoQ from the previous three months, to USD 81.3tr, the Federal Reserve said in its financial accounts report, previously known as the flow of funds survey. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.K: House-price index showed price growth slowed for a sixth month in November, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. RICS said its house-price gauge fell to 13, the lowest since May 2013, from 20 in October. An index for London dropped to minus 40, the least since 2010, from minus 33. (Source: Bloomberg)

Russia: Rate increase fails to halt Ruble's slide to record. Russia's fifth interest-rate increase this year failed to stem the ruble's worst rout since 1998 as the central bank governor said a bigger move risked exposing the economy to a greater chance of recession. The Bank of Russia increased its key rate to 10.5% from 9.5%. The central bank stands ready to take unorthodox steps if the situation worsens, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said after the decision, without elaborating. (Source: Bloomberg)

Indonesia: Central bank kept benchmark borrowing costs unchanged, pausing after a surprise increase last month in response to President Joko Widodo raising subsidized fuel prices. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo and his board left the reference rate at 7.75%, the central bank said. The authority also kept the rate it pays lenders on overnight deposits, known as the Fasbi, unchanged at 5.75%. (Source: Bloomberg)

Philippines: Won a second rating upgrade from Moody's Investors Service in just over a year, even as the central bank highlighted growth risks in refraining from raising interest rates. Moody's raised the Philippines's sovereign rating to Baa2 from Baa3 and said the outlook is stable. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas kept the rate it pays lenders for overnight deposits at 4%. (Source: Bloomberg)

Australia: Employers added the most jobs in more than two years last month as the central bank's plan to spur growth with record-low interest rates bears fruit. The number of people employed rose by 42,700, the biggest gain since March 2012 and almost three times the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 15,000, statistics bureau data showed. The unemployment rate climbed to 6.3%, a 12-year high, as more people entered the labor force seeking work. (Source: Bloomberg)

 

[adie]

Futures Crude Palm Oil 12/12/14

Technical Outlook
CPO February futures gapped down, briefly went to the day low at RM 2,148 then gradually climbed up with a last hour bargain hunting day high at RM 2,199 to settle + 20 points at RM 2,195. Total volume of 52,780 lots was traded with open interest at 181,843 contracts held.
The market opened in tandem with losses in crude oil and soybean oil prices. Despite some bargain hunting support on a sharp dip, the intraday rally was sustainable as most of its correlated products has started to rebound off the low.
However, the market has closed its gap from 27th Nov and currently is experiencing a psychological resistance placed at 2200. With the recent weakening in Ringgit it could assist the palm oil to sustain at this price level, as it could be viewed as a cheaper correlated products for the foreign investors.
We peg resistance at RM 2,230 with psychological support seen at RM 2,148. However, if the market sentiment is strong and it manage to sustain above 2200, market is likely to test to resistance or even higher at 2250.
Market view: Prices could trade within the resistance and support range.

Palm Oil
Palm oil futures for February delivery gained 0.9% to close at 2,195 Ringgit per metric ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, the highest close since November 27th. It is believed that the palm oil prices is supported by the expectations palm output will decline further in the comings months. However, weakening in Ringgit as well as crude oil falling to 5 year low, it could affect the price of palm oil.
Refined palm for May delivery dipped 0..9% to close at 4,998 Yuan per metric ton on Dalian Commodity Exchange.
Soybean Oil
Chicago agricultural commodities closed up Thursday on upbeat U.S weekly export sales. Soybean futures found support from expectations of a chinese soybean purchase next week as Chinese trade delegation will visit Chicago on Tuesday. Analysts say that there is the potential for large soybean purchases to be announced, and most of the soybean purchases are expected to be for the 2015/2016 crop year
Soybean oil for January delivery gained 0.85% to close at $32.02 a pound and soybean for January delivery gained 0.99% to close at $10.4225.

 

[adie]

Futures FKLI Index 15/12/14

Technical Outlook
Spot month futures contract renewed its selling pressure reaching day low of 1,725.0 just 4 points off 9th December low of 1,721.0. Week to week decline has seen a formation of a long upper shadow on the weekly chart indicating rebound did not sustain any momentum. With prices continue to trend below the moving average lines of 10, 20 and 40 we would expect more downside for this week with major support 1,702.5 the target. The daily chart also painted a similar bearish sentiment reading with critical support line of 1,721.0 likely achieve today or coming days. In light of another dip in oil price, we could see more pressure on the index market today which has also seen higher open interest last Friday.
Support is seen at 1,721.0 and 1,702.5 based on previous low points while resistance could peg at hourly 10 moving average at 1,736.5 and further up at 1,745.0

Local Markets
Local stocks tumble extending yesterday’s sell-off as oil and gas (O&G) counter leading declines as crude oil continues its slide. Global oil prices plunged recently after OPEC’s decision not to cut output Sapura Kencana Petroleum was among dragger of the index. The FBM KLCI index declined 11.58 points or 0.66% to settle at 1,732.99. Losers thump losers 690 to 178 while 252 counters remained unchanged.
Index futures contracts tracked losses in the underlying with sharp losses across the board extending previous day losses. The spot month futures contract settled close to the intra-day low in a last 15 minutes heavy selling. December contract settlement declined 17 points to close at 1,725.0. Total volume traded was recorded at 8,966 lots while open interest rose to 28,403 from 24,384 contracts on Thursday.
Asian Region
Stocks in Japan rises after the currency Yen resumes its decline against the greenback giving export shares a boost. Stocks such as Canon Inc. who rely export for sales jumped 3.9%. The TOPIX closed the week at 1,399.65 just 0.2% higher than Thursday and ahead of national election in the weekend. Nikkei 225 index closed 0.7% higher at 17,371.58
Hong Kong stocks closed lower to cap its biggest weekly decline since March this year after consumer and oil producer shares declined. The decline on Friday means the Hang Seng index fell as much as 3.1% week to week after oil prices again battered stocks. The index closed 0.3% lower on to settle at 23,249.20
Stocks in China closed higher to cap a fifth straight week of gains after sign of slowing industrial production might trigger more stimulus from the central government. Market has been on an upside since the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate and more is expected after recent weak economic data. The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.4% to close at 2,938.17
US Market
Wall Street fell with the S&P 500 having its worst week since May 2012 after investors took cash off the table in view of oil’s seemingly bottomless decline. Crude oil price fell further underscoring concerns on global demand with OPEC and IEA all cutting 2015 demand forecast. The energy sector were hit the most for the day with component stocks Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp both hitting 52-week lows. Price of oil dips below $58 a barrel which is a five-year low.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.79% or 315.51 points to close the week at 17,280.83 while S&P 500 declined 1.62% or 33 points to settle at 2,002.33

 

[BRAVOZULU]

KIV dulu. nanti baru baca