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[FreshForexTeam]

Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | October 9, 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 4160.00, SL 4125.00, TP 4247.50

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The weak US employment report sharply reduced the probability of an interest rate hike by the Fed in October: job growth in September amounted to 29 thousand, and data for previous months was revised downward. This weakens pressure from monetary policy and supports demand for gold.

At the same time, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds remains above 5%, which limits the potential of XAUUSD. The minutes of the Fed's September meeting will be a test of the new scenario, but if expectations of a pause persist, the priority remains with the recovery of gold.

Trading idea: BUY 4160.00, SL 4125.00, TP 4247.50

#SP500: BUY 7725, SL 7680, TP 7835​

For the US market, the key change was the reduction in expectations for a Fed rate hike in October after weak employment data. A softer trajectory of the cost of money supports stocks, and Friday's index rise shows that investors currently view slowing hiring more as an argument for a Fed pause.

The limitation remains Treasury bond yields at multi-year highs, increasing requirements for stock valuation. If the Fed minutes do not return the market to tighter expectations, the basic weekly scenario allows for continued growth of #SP500.

Trading idea: BUY 7725, SL 7680, TP 7835

#BRENT: SELL 100.50, SL 103.00, TP 94.25​

For Brent, the main local factor of the week is supply. OPEC+ maintained its production targets for November, and oil exports from the Middle East have recovered, while G7 countries began releasing part of their emergency reserves. This combination reduces deficit risks and creates downward pressure on prices.

Geopolitical tensions and attacks on infrastructure continue to maintain the risk premium, so declines may remain volatile. However, with high export flows and growing available supply remaining, the basic scenario for the week remains in favor of selling #BRENT.

Trading idea: SELL 100.50, SL 103.00, TP 94.25

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[FreshForexTeam]

Fundamental Market Analysis for October 06, 2026 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Trade Balance

GBPUSD:

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The pound maintains its support due to expectations of a tighter Bank of England policy and the government's focus on fiscal discipline. Its strengthening against the euro shows that European debt issues affect currencies unevenly. However, an advantage over the euro does not mean the same advantage over the dollar: for GBP/USD, the comparison of interest rate prospects and the state of the two economies is more important.

The US services sector continues to expand despite the slowdown in the September ISM index. The rise in purchasing prices indicates that weakening employment has not yet eliminated inflation risks. This allows the market to maintain expectations of further Fed rate hikes, even if the next move is delayed, and supports demand for the dollar through high yields on US assets.

Today, the UK construction PMI will serve as a test of domestic activity resilience. Strong data could boost support for the pound, while weak results would highlight the burden of high rates on the economy. Given the current dollar momentum, local arguments are currently insufficient for sustained GBP/USD growth. The sell idea retains its edge, although BoE support limits the downside scope.

Trade idea: SELL 1.3215, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3145

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[FreshForexTeam]

The Eurozone Is Once Again Showing Signs of Crisis: EURUSD Falls Below 1.12​

The euro has come under renewed pressure from several factors at once. Investors are concerned about the state of France’s public finances, the US dollar remains strong thanks to high US Treasury yields, while expectations for the ECB’s future policy remain mixed.

The spread between the yields on 10-year French and German government bonds recently exceeded 150 basis points — the highest level since 2011. This is a worrying signal for the market: investors are demanding an increasingly higher premium for holding French debt, while political difficulties surrounding the budget are adding to uncertainty.

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EURUSD fell below 1.12​

On October 5, EURUSD briefly fell to 1.1160 — its lowest level since May 2025. On the morning of October 6, the pair recovered to around 1.12, but pressure on the euro remains. On the one hand, concerns over France’s debt continue to deter investors. On the other, the dollar is supported by US Treasury yields, which remain near multi-year highs.

At the same time, the situation is not limited to France. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September, so the possibility of further ECB rate hikes remains and could support the euro. For EURUSD to stage a sustained reversal, the market would need a combination of several factors: stabilization of French debt, lower US yields, or stronger expectations of a more hawkish ECB policy. Until that happens, the 1.10–1.11 area remains the main downside target, while a sustained move above 1.12 would be the first sign that sellers are losing momentum.

#CAC40 remains under the most pressure​

The French stock market is reacting much more strongly to the situation than the broader European market. #CAC40 is trading around 7,846 points after falling from levels above 8,100 at the end of September. Attempts to recover are currently meeting sellers in the 7,850–7,900 area.

As long as the index remains below 7,900, downside pressure persists. A renewed decline and a sustained break below 7,800 points would confirm that investors are continuing to reduce their exposure to French assets. For the outlook to improve significantly, #CAC40 needs to return above the 7,900–8,000 zone.

#ESTX50 is holding up better for now​

The pan-European #ESTX50 is trading around 6,253 points and continues to look more resilient than the French market. After falling to around 6,210–6,220, the index managed to recover, suggesting that investors currently view the problems primarily as French rather than as a full-scale debt crisis across the entire eurozone.

However, the margin of safety is narrowing. If #ESTX50 falls back toward 6,200 and fails to hold this level, the French problem could begin to look like a broader European factor. In that case, pressure on EURUSD could intensify alongside further declines in European stock indices.

According to FreshForex analysts, the most likely scenario at present remains further downside in EURUSD and continued pressure on European equities. As long as the pair remains below 1.12, the main target remains the 1.10–1.11 area. For #CAC40, weakness below 7,900 keeps the risk of further declines elevated, while 6,200 is the key level for #ESTX50.

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