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[FreshForexTeam]

The U.S. already owes $40 trillion: Central Banks are increasingly turning to gold​

U.S. government debt has exceeded $40 trillion for the first time, once again raising investor concerns about the sustainability of American public finances. At the same time, yields on long-term U.S. government bonds recently climbed to levels near their highest in almost 20 years, while the U.S. Treasury had to increase its buyback operations to support market liquidity.

Against this backdrop, gold (XAUUSD) received a new boost. On August 19, XAUUSD rose by more than 4%, while on August 20 the price climbed as high as $4,527 per ounce — its highest level since early June.

Why gold is attracting more institutional capital again:

• Foreign demand for U.S. government debt is declining. In June, foreign investors' holdings of U.S. government bonds fell from $9.371 trillion to $9.299 trillion. China reduced its holdings by as much as 4% to $633.4 billion, the lowest level since September 2008. Japan and the United Kingdom also reduced their positions.
• Private investors are becoming more cautious as well. Net purchases of U.S. government bonds by the foreign private sector over the past 12 months have fallen by more than 40%. This does not mean a mass rejection of the U.S. dollar, but it does indicate that attracting funds to finance America's growing debt is becoming more difficult.
• China is accelerating its gold accumulation. In July, the People's Bank of China increased its reserves by 20 tons — the largest monthly increase in almost three years. As a result, the country's official gold reserves reached a record 2,377.5 tons.
• China is not the only buyer. In the second quarter, central banks around the world purchased around 289 tons of gold — a record figure for the second quarter. In the first half of the year, the largest buyers included Poland, Uzbekistan, China, and Kazakhstan.

The reason for this diversification is becoming increasingly clear. Government bonds and currency reserves depend on the financial system of the issuing country and, amid geopolitical conflicts, can become instruments of sanctions or economic pressure. Physical gold is not another country's debt obligation, which is why it remains a way for central banks to reduce currency, credit, and political risks.

This trend is likely to continue. According to a World Gold Council survey, 89% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase further, while a record 45% plan to increase their own holdings. At the same time, 74% of respondents believe the dollar's share of international reserves will decline over the next five years.

According to FreshForex analysts, the key factor for XAUUSD right now is not so much short-term price dynamics as the changing structure of global reserves. Reduced holdings of U.S. government debt by some major holders, combined with sustained gold purchases by central banks, show that the metal is increasingly being viewed as a long-term diversification instrument.

Diversify your risks​

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Market Fundamental Analysis for August 24, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

The UK economy continues to show signs of resilience despite mixed data in recent days. The preliminary services PMI rose to a six-month high of 52.8 in August, while consumer confidence reached a two-year high. This reduces the risk of a sharp deterioration in domestic demand and provides support for the pound.

UK inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, remaining above the Bank of England’s target. At the July meeting, three of the nine committee members had already voted for a rate increase, while the market continues to price in the possibility of tighter policy before the end of the year. A 0.5% decline in retail sales and an unexpected budget deficit are limiting factors for sterling, but they do not yet change the broader picture.

The external environment is also important for GBPUSD: the US dollar remains under pressure amid concerns over US debt policy and the expansion of long-term bond buybacks by the Treasury. Strong activity in the US services sector limits the scale of dollar weakness but does not change the main impulse of the current session. As long as UK data remain resilient, the growth scenario for GBPUSD retains the advantage.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3650, SL 1.3610, TP 1.3740

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[FreshForexTeam]

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Weekly Overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 28 August 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 4620.00, SL 4580.00, TP 4720.00​

Gold starts the week with sustained demand amid a weaker US dollar and renewed concerns about the stability of the US debt market. The US Treasury’s decision to increase buybacks of long-term bonds after the 30-year yield climbed toward multi-year highs has strengthened demand for defensive assets.

XAUUSD has already posted a notable advance, so further upside will depend on continued pressure on the dollar ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech and upcoming inflation data. Elevated yields limit gold’s potential, but as long as fiscal concerns persist, the base-case scenario remains supportive of further gains.

Trading idea: BUY 4620.00, SL 4580.00, TP 4720.00

#SP500: SELL 7690, SL 7750, TP 7570

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#SP500 enters the week after declining over the previous five sessions, with high borrowing costs remaining the main constraint. Long-term US Treasury yields are holding near multi-year highs, raising the hurdle for equity valuations and creating particular pressure on the technology sector.

The market is also awaiting Nvidia’s earnings report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole. Strong corporate results could support equities, but the combination of expensive financing, inflation risks, and uncertainty over interest rates leaves the weekly outlook vulnerable. The base-case scenario remains tilted toward further downside.

Trading idea: SELL 7690, SL 7750, TP 7570

#BRENT: BUY 93.20, SL 90.70, TP 98.20

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Brent starts the week after a strong advance, while the geopolitical risk premium remains elevated. The United States is preparing new sanctions against Iran and its trading partners, while vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below pre-war levels. This keeps supply disruption risks in focus and supports oil prices.

Offsetting factors include higher US commercial crude inventories and the OPEC+ decision to raise September production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day. However, the IEA estimates that the market will remain in deficit during the third quarter. If supply constraints persist, the base-case weekly scenario allows for a recovery in #BRENT.

Trading idea: BUY 93.20, SL 90.70, TP 98.20

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[FreshForexTeam]

Analysis of margin levels for August 25, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 4581.24-4639.24, TP1-4697.24, TP2-4814.04.​

Long-term trend: bullish. The largest concentration of volume in the current contract is located within the 4360.00–4400.00 range. At present, trading activity in XAUUSD is taking place above this range, indicating buyer strength.

Medium-term trend: bullish. The largest concentration of medium-term volume is located within the 4380.00-4400.00 and 4570.00-4590.00 ranges. At present, trading activity in XAUUSD is taking place above these ranges, indicating buyer strength.

From a margin requirements perspective, the favorable buying area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the high of August 25, 2026.

The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4639.24.

The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4581.24.

Intraday target: a retest of the August 25, 2026 high at 4697.24.

Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 4814.04.

Trading recommendation: consider buying from the favorable price range once a reversal pattern forms.

Buy: 4581.24–4639.24, Take Profit 1–4697.24, Take Profit 2–4814.04.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Bitcoin Breaks Above $80,000: The Crypto Market Is Back in Motion​

The cryptocurrency market has delivered one of its strongest recoveries in recent months. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) climbed above $80,000 for the first time since mid-May, gaining 23.6% over the past week—its second-best weekly performance since the beginning of 2021.
The rally extended across the market. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced more than 31% during the week, while Ripple (XRPUSD) surged by around 50%. At the same time, U.S. spot crypto ETFs recorded approximately $2.6 billion in net inflows, marking their strongest weekly result since last October.

What Drove the Rally?

• Institutional investors returned. Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $1.9 billion in net inflows during the week, while Ethereum ETFs added nearly $700 million. The return of institutional demand has become one of the defining features of the current rally, setting it apart from previous short-lived rebounds.
• U.S. Treasury yields declined. The U.S. Treasury expanded its long-term bond buyback program, helping ease pressure from elevated interest rates on risk assets and encouraging investors to return to cryptocurrencies.
• The U.S. dollar weakened. A softer dollar traditionally boosts the appeal of alternative assets. In this environment, Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed alongside gold as an asset that may benefit from concerns about currency depreciation.
• Short sellers were caught off guard. Before the rally, Bitcoin had spent nearly six weeks trading in a narrow range, with many traders expecting the downtrend to continue. The breakout above resistance triggered a wave of short-covering, adding further momentum to the advance.

The technical picture has improved. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have moved back above their 200-day moving averages, a level widely used to assess long-term market trends. Meanwhile, Ethereum has recently been outperforming Bitcoin, a pattern that often signals growing risk appetite across the broader cryptocurrency market.

According to FreshForex analysts, now that Bitcoin has established itself above $80,000, buyers continue to hold the advantage. If ETF inflows remain strong and U.S. Treasury yields continue to ease, BTC could move toward the $85,000–90,000 range. Should the current momentum persist, the market may once again begin discussing the possibility of Bitcoin returning to the $100,000 level.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Market Fundamental Analysis for August 26, 2026 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Change in GDP quarter over quarter

USDJPY:

A month without swaps on majors! Learn more

The yen is receiving fresh fundamental support following an acceleration in inflation within Japan’s services sector. The Services Producer Price Index rose by 3.6% year on year in July, up from a revised 3.4% in June, strengthening the case for further interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan. This is important for USDJPY because expectations of faster policy tightening reduce part of the dollar’s previous interest-rate advantage.

A recent survey of economists showed a notable shift in expectations: the majority now see the possibility of the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate to 1.25% as early as September, while the market is close to fully pricing in such a move. The yen’s sensitivity is also supported by the recent joint intervention by Japan and the United States in the foreign exchange market, which keeps attention focused on excessive weakness in the Japanese currency.

There is currently no strong opposing impulse from the dollar. The US currency is trading in a narrow range ahead of the July Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and fresh Federal Reserve signals, while the latest Japanese data are strengthening expectations for the Bank of Japan. As a result, the base-case scenario allows for a decline in USDJPY if the current repricing of interest rate expectations continues.

Trading idea: SELL 159.05, SL 159.45, TP 158.15

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[FreshForexTeam]

The Fed Is Cornered: Markets Await the Verdict at Jackson Hole​

U.S. inflation has once again forced investors to reassess their expectations for the Fed’s interest rate policy. The PCE price index — the central bank’s key inflation gauge — rose 3.7% year over year in July, while the core reading, excluding food and energy, remained at 3.3%. Both figures are still well above the Fed’s 2% target.

The market reaction has been cautious. The dollar is holding near an eight-day high, while the probability of a Fed rate hike as early as September is now estimated at around 40%. Investors are now turning their attention to Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak on August 28.

A month without swaps on major currency pairs! Learn more

The Economy Is Giving the Fed No Easy Choice​

High inflation usually calls for tighter monetary policy, but the U.S. economy is simultaneously sending mixed signals.

In the second quarter, U.S. GDP grew by just 1.5% year over year. On the other hand, domestic demand proved more resilient than initially estimated, corporate profits increased, and business investment continues to receive support from massive spending on artificial intelligence.

As a result, the Fed has to choose between two risks: another rate hike could slow the economy even further, while a policy that is too accommodative could allow inflation to remain significantly above the target level.

Everything Now Depends on Jackson Hole​

The key event will be Kevin Warsh’s speech on August 28. Above all, the market will be looking for an answer to one question: how seriously is the Fed prepared to fight inflation if price growth remains around its current levels?

A more hawkish tone could strengthen the dollar and push U.S. Treasury yields higher. For #SP500 and #NQ100, such a scenario would create additional pressure, as higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and reduce the appeal of growth stocks.

If the Fed Chair instead signals that another rate hike can be avoided, the market reaction could be the opposite — the dollar could come under pressure, while stock indexes could receive support.

According to FreshForex analysts, the Fed is unlikely to give the market a reason to expect an imminent policy easing: inflation at 3.7% remains too high, making a signal of persistently high rates and a willingness to raise them again if inflation fails to slow the most likely scenario. For traders, this means a stronger dollar and increased downside risk for #SP500 and #NQ100, particularly the technology sector, which is the most sensitive to expensive financing.

Profit from market volatility​

 

[FreshForexTeam]

We Are Extending Our Popular Promotions Through Autumn​

Autumn traditionally brings renewed activity to the markets. Investors once again focus on inflation data, business activity indicators, and central bank decisions. To help you take advantage of new market opportunities, we are extending our popular promotions:

101% Deposit Bonus

15% First Deposit Bonus

Both promotions will remain available through November 30, 2026, inclusive.

In addition, from August 31 through September 13, 2026, inclusive, you can use the promo code SEPT202:

202% Drawdown Bonus

The bonus applies to one deposit of at least 202 USD

Promo code SEPT202

Activate the SEPT202 promo code in your Personal Area, fund your account, and receive additional support for trading during the active autumn market season.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Major Investors Return to the Cryptocurrency Market​

The largest cryptocurrencies have attracted renewed demand from major investors. Bitcoin posted its best monthly performance in almost two years in August.

The main driver has been investment in cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds. A weaker US dollar has also made digital assets more attractive to some investors.

A Month Without Swaps on Major Pairs! Learn more

Key drivers of cryptocurrency market movements:

• BTCUSD — demand through exchange-traded funds. New inflows could support Bitcoin in the coming weeks.
• ETHUSD — sustained inflows into Ethereum funds. Continued demand could help Ethereum maintain its strong position.
• XRPUSD — initial investments in XRP-related funds. Continued inflows could expand the pool of major buyers.
• SOLUSD — investor interest in Solana funds. So far, investment volumes remain significantly below those of the market leaders.
• TRXUSD — the development of digital-dollar payments. New banking projects are supporting the industry while also increasing competition and regulatory attention.

These assets reflect different aspects of major investors returning to the cryptocurrency market. BTCUSD and ETHUSD are seeing the most significant direct demand. XRPUSD and SOLUSD depend more heavily on continued investment in new funds. TRXUSD is linked to the development of digital payments, making it more sensitive to regulation and competition from banks.

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According to FreshForex specialists, the coming weeks will depend on several factors. Major investor demand and inflows into exchange-traded funds will be important. Regulation, network development, and digital-dollar adoption will also play a role. Changes in investor sentiment could trigger sharp market movements. Even in a positive scenario, it is important to manage trading risk in advance and account for possible shifts in the market environment.

At FreshForex, trading accounts are available for 7 cryptocurrencies and more than 70 crypto pairs with leverage of up to 1:100, available for trading 24/7.

Invest in Crypto​

 

[FreshForexTeam]

The Yen Has Turned the Market Around: USDJPY Plunges Nearly 5%​

The Japanese yen has unexpectedly transformed from one of the market’s weakest currencies into a growth leader. On September 8, USDJPY fell to 152.89 — its lowest level since February, while the pair had recently been trading around 160. Since the beginning of September, the yen has strengthened by approximately 4.5%, forcing traders to reassess the pair’s further trajectory.

This time, the yen’s rise is driven not only by the threat of currency intervention. The market is increasingly preparing for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its September 17–18 meeting. A 25-basis-point rate increase to 1.25% is now almost fully priced in.

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What is supporting the yen:​

• The Bank of Japan is preparing to raise rates. Expectations of further monetary policy tightening are making the yen more attractive and narrowing the interest-rate differential between Japan and the US.
• Real wages are rising. In July, they increased by 2.4% year-on-year — the highest level since 2021. For the Bank of Japan, this is an important signal: rising household incomes reduce the risk that higher rates will hurt consumption too severely.
• Japan’s economy has proven more resilient than expected. Second-quarter GDP growth was revised upward to 1.4% annualized, giving the central bank more room to continue raising rates.
• Investors are closing short-yen positions. For a long time, market participants borrowed the cheap Japanese currency and invested the funds in higher-yielding assets abroad. Now, as Japanese rates rise, such trades are becoming less profitable, forcing investors to buy back the yen.

The currency is receiving additional support from the authorities’ stance. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed that Japan and the US continue to coordinate their actions to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market. Following the joint intervention in July, traders are already factoring in the risk that a rapid return of USDJPY to its highs could once again trigger a response from the authorities.

According to FreshForex analysts, the yen still has the upper hand, and pressure on USDJPY may continue. Expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, rising real wages, and the unwinding of speculative short-yen positions continue to support the Japanese currency. If the central bank confirms on September 17–18 that it is prepared to continue raising rates, USDJPY could once again test the 150–152 area.

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Profit from the decline​