As it was mentioned in the previous analysis of this currency pair dated 05.03.2013, according to the formed signs in this price chart, there was the possibility for ascending of price which finally happened. The price could record the top price of 1.03814 during the recent increase. As it is obvious in the picture below, the price by reaching to the resistance range that is made of 3 top prices has stopped from more ascend and has formed a top price in this range. According to the formed movements in the chart, between the bottom price of 1.01143 and the top price of 1.03814, there us AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 50 to 161.8 that warns the price descends from the D point of this pattern.
Breaking the D point shows the certainty of the buyers in reaching to the predetermined targets in this currency pair. RSI indicator with the recent ascend is in saturation buy area and shows the possibility of stopping the price in midterm interval but because it is not in the same direction with daily time frame, this signal is not much reliable. Generally according to the formed signs until the D point of this pattern is preserved, the price has the potential for descend in this currency and if the resistance level of 1.03814 breaks, the previous analysis of this currency pair will be reliable.
In the previous technical analysis of this currency pair dated 11.03.2013, according to the formed technical signs, there was the potential for price reformation which finally happened (as it was mentioned there was no clear reason for descending in weekly and daily time frames).the buyers could record the top price of 0.95644 that the price by reaching to this price level is in descending trend range also a resistance level and lose its ability for ascending. Right now with the recent downfall, the 0.95644 top price is fixed and it is under 5-day moving average in 4H time frame that shows the descending of price.
RSI indicator is in saturation buy area and warns the potential for formation of a top price and descending of price according to the next cycle. For the technical analysts, breaking of the ascending channel is an important warning for changing trend direction. Generally until the third point of descending trend line is preserved, the price has the potential for descend and reformation in this currency pair.
USD/JPY in recent weeks has a strong ascending trend that shows the serious buyers in reaching to their target prices. The price during this ascending trend could record the top price of 96.688 that is the most important resistance level in front of price. As it is obvious in the picture below, the price has been stopped by reaching to the long term descending trend and is not able to ascend more which is a warning for buyers about changing price direction. According to the recent descend, the price closed under 5-day moving average and warns the potential for more descending.The price in the resistance edge of two Fibonacci levels of 261.8 and 161.8 has formed a top price that is this top price there is an important and ideal Evening star candlestick pattern with 4 stars which is an important warning for the formation of a top price and continuing the descending trend. According to the formed movements in daily time frame, right now the price and RSI indicator are in divergence mode and there is the potential for changing price direction. Generally until the mentioned top price is preserved, the price has the potential for descending and reformation in this currency pair.
AUD/ NZD from the bottom price of 1.21378 had a strong ascending trend and could record the top price of 1.26733 during this ascend. As it is obvious in the picture below, the price by reaching to the descending trend line which is made of 4 top prices is not able to ascend more and has been stopped. By closing of the descending candle on 15th day in daily time frame, the price level of 1.26773 is fixed as a top price. Stoch indicator in daily time frame is in saturation buy area and according to the next cycle confirms the mentioned top price but because of not being in the same direction with other long term time frames is not reliable.In weekly and monthly time frames of this currency pair there is not a clear reason for descending of price and there is a potential for ascending in long term interval. The first sign for starting the descending trend and price reformation is, breaking of the supportive level of 1.25551 in this currency pair. Generally until the mentioned top price on descending trend line is preserved, the price has the potential for descending and downfall.
EUR/CAD during its ascending trend and reaching to the resistance line of ascending channel has been stopped and by recording a top price has prepared a field for price reformation and a downfall. Right now as it is obvious in the daily time frame , the price during the downfall from the mentioned top price and reaching to the supportive edge of ascending channel ( made of 3 bottom prices) has stopped and has recorded the bottom price of 1.31715. In weekly time frames of this currency pair there is not a clear reason for ascending of the price and the first warning for ascending of the price in long term interval is creating a bottom price in weekly time frame. The most important supportive level in front of price for preventing more downfalls is the ascending trend line and also the alterant level which is shown in the picture below.
According to this point( until the bottom price of 1.31715 is preserved ) in daily time frame of this currency pair , the 4th point on ascending trend line has formed and if the resistance level of 1.33014 breaks, there will be the possibility of ascending and increase of price in ascending channel.
As it was mentioned in the previous analysis of this currency pair dated 13.03.2013 according to the formed signs in this price chart, there was the possibility of ascending of price which finally happened. Right now in daily time frame the price is closed above 5-day moving average and could record the top price of 1.52590. Also in weekly time frame the previous week candle was above 5-day moving average and Stoch indicator is in ascending cycle and warns the possibility of ascending of the price during the next weeks. As it is obvious in the picture below , the price has been stopped by reaching to the descending trend line ( made of 2 peak prices) during the ascending trend and has recorded the top price of 1.52590 that warns descending and reformation of the price during the next candles.
Right now according to the formed movements in the chart, there is an important Inverted head and shoulders pattern that warns changing price direction from descending to ascending trend. According to the point that in this pattern usually there is a short reverse to the Neck line; one of the possible targets of a downfall from the top price of 1.52590 can be the Neck line of this pattern. The first warning for starting and continuing the ascending trend is breaking of the descending trend line in this currency pair.
EUR/AUD during the recent weeks by breaking and crossing the ascending trend line (with 4 bottom prices) has experienced a strong descending trend and could record the bottom price of 1.22556. Right now in daily and weekly time frames, the price is under 5-day moving average that shows the strong descending trend and warns about more descending. As it is obvious in the picture below, the price is in descending channel and could touch the supportive edge of this channel. In 4H time frame, the formation of candles with small body and hammer candlestick pattern (shows stoppage of descending and indecision market) shows that most of the sellers use this supportive level for analyzing their trades.
Stoch indicator in 4H time frame is in saturation sell area and warns about price reformation according to the next cycle ( also it confirms hammer candlestick pattern). according to the selling pressure and strong descending trend in this currency pair, this signal does not have a high validity. If the bottom price of 1.22556 breaks, the price has the potential of reaching to the supportive range which is shown in the picture below. One of the important warning to end the descending trend and starting of the price reformation is formation of a bottom price and breaking of the descending channel in daily time frame.
AUD/USD was in ascending trend from the bottom price of 1.01137 that during this ascending trend the buyers could record the top price of 1.04950. The price by reaching to the descending trend line (made of several peak prices) has been stopped from more ascending and right now is in the price reformation condition.In 4H time frame the top price of 1.04950 has been recorded and the Stoch indicator by being in a descending cycle confirms the mentioned top price but because of not being confirmed by the larger time frame, it does not have a high validity.
Right now the next important resistance level is the round level of 1.05000 that buyers tried to get this price yesterday at 5 PM and finally they were successful. Generally if this resistance level breaks, the price will find the potential for ascending and reaching to the resistance range which is shown in the picture below.In weekly time frame of this currency pair there is no clear reason for descending of the price and the price by being above the 5-day moving average and also ascending cycle of Stoch indicator warns about going forward to the resistance levels.One of the important warnings for starting the price downfall is breaking the ascending trend line (made of three bottom prices) in 4H time frame.
NZD/CHF during the recent days had an ascending trend that could record the top price of 0.79926. as it is obvious in the picture below, the price by reaching to the long term descending trend line ( made of 2 peak prices)dated back to the 2010 has been stopped and the buyers were unable to pass this resistance line.According to the formed movements in the price chart, between the bottom price of 0.76471 and the top price of 0.79926 there is an AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ideal ratios of 61.8 and 161.8 which the D point of this pattern is completed and warns about descending of the price in this price range. Stoch indicator in 4H time frame is in the saturation buy area and is in divergence mode with the price chart that warns about changing price direction.According to this point that in long term time frames, price is above 5-day moving average and there is not any clear reason for descending of the price, if the price level of 0.79926 and descending trend line breaks, the price will find a potential for going toward the targets such as the important round level of 0.80000 and 0.81329 level.
As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of Gold on 07.03.2013, according to the formed signs in the chart there was the possibility of price ascend that finally happened and it is still valid for this chart. The price has been stopped in its downfall by recording the bottom price of 1593.88. As it is obvious in the picture below, the price by reaching to the ascending trend line made of 7 peak prices has been stopped from more descending and the buyers are hopeful about ascending of price from this supportive level.Stoch indicator in 4H time frame is in saturation sell area and according to the next cycle confirms the created bottom price and warns about the possibility of price ascend. In case of ascending of the price, one of the buyers target will be the drawn resistance line. One of the important warnings is breaking the resistance level of 1616.74 for ascending of the price and leaving this range (which is the top price level in previous week).
