As we predicted the possibility of the price and stop of the falling of the price on 06.13.2012, now you can see in the chart that the price has ascended. The price could not continue its ascending trend after recording the 84.597 and the Shooting Star candle pattern is formed in the daily time frame. In order to continue its ascending trend, the price should break this pattern and also it should pass the upper edge of the ascending channel in the 4h time frame.
The nearest supporting level for the price is 83.547 level and in the next level is the ascending trend line of the ascending channel which can prevent more ascend of the price. The Shooting Star cadle pattern is located on the descending trend’s line in the daily time frame and therefore issued the falling signal. If the daily candle did not close above the Shooting Star candle pattern, there would be the possibility of the descend from the third point of descending trend’s line.
The USD/JPY will ascend to the 79.773 after breaking the descending trend’s line in the daily time frame. And then again start its falling, however, finally, it will create a bottom price and ascend after facing the descending trend’s line which has the supportive role after breaking. Right now, as we mentioned before, by considering the weekly time frame the potential of an ascend is strengthen.
In the 4h time frame, after reaching the resistance level, the price is not able to ascend more and therefore, a top price is formed in these areas. Right now, the price is in the saturation buy situation, and RSI indicator confirms this idea too and issued the warning of the top price for falling of the price. Until the formed top price (determined by red color) is not broken, we can expect the decreasing of the price.
Right now, the chart of gold has shown a fragile fall because of created top price of 1588.31 and we can notice the intention of descending movement in the 4h time frame by considering the top price, however, this idea is not valuable by considering the daily time frame and we can expect the break of the price. Now, the gold is located in the area of the supportive and resistance levels which prevents the increasing and decreasing of the price twice.
We have drawn these lines in the below picture. Considering the daily time frame, (ascending of the price from the fourth point of the ascending line and the ascending cycle of Stoch indicator) and the possible start of the ascending cycle of the price until when the blue ascending trend line is stable, we can expect the reaching and ascending of the price to the resistance line.
The EUR/USD will stop the descending trend and start to ascend from 1 of Jun after its strong fall. This ascending and reformation of the price will continue to the 1.27418 (the price will be reformed for about 38.2) and finally will stop and start falling at the resistance level of 38.2 Fibonacci. As you can see in the below picture, Right now, the price has formed a candle with a long bottom shadow after reaching the supportive level.
This candle is the sign of defeat of the seller in order to get reach a lower price comparing to the May’s. The RSI indicator and the price are in the divergence mode and they issued the warning of a bottom price and ascend of the price. we can expect the ascend of the price until the formed bottom price is not broken. If the supportive level broke, the price would descend and reach the supportive level of 1st of June.
The currency pair of EUR/JPY will ascend to 101.609 and then will stop there after breaking and passing the descending trend line. The resistance level of 38.2 of Fibonacci is the reason of the stop of the price in that level. When the price breaks this descending trend and will back toward this line.
When the price reached there, it will stop there (supportive level) and ascend again which is a good opportunity (for buying and entrance to the ascending trend) for using this transformative line. Right now, this EUR/JPY has formed a bottom price in some areas of supportive level. Also, in the daily time frame, some candles with small bodies are formed on 26th and 27th which is the sign of buyers’ wait for lower price. Until when the formed bottom price of 98.773 is kept, we can expect ascend of the price in the chart.
As we mentioned about the possibility of ascend of the price in our previous technical analysis on 06.27.2012, you can notice that the price has ascended. In a long term period and range we expected ascending and increasing of the price by considering the monthly and weekly time frame. In the monthly time frame the price returned to the higher areas of the chart by touching a supporting line which belongs to 2008. Because this supporting line was successful in increasing the price in 2010, thus, there is the possibility of a successful ascending from this supportive line again.
In the weekly time frame, the price is located in the blue line of supporting line which was formed from the bottom price. Generally, the price is going to reach to the red supportive line and also the Stoch indicator is in the ascending cycle and therefore we can expect ascend of the price.
Right now, the price has fallen from the 1.26915 top price (due to the strong and quick ascend, the falling was predictable). Now, the price is between the supportive and resistance lines, as you can see in the below picture, in the 1h timeframe. To continue its ascend; the price should break the red resistance line. Until when the green supportive area is untouched and safe, we can expect ascend of the price and reaching the 1.26915 top price in the first phase.
The EUR/CAD is in the important supporting area after its descending in the recent years. The sellers should have enough power to pass these areas. Right now, the price is located on a supportive line which its bottom price is formed in 2011. This level has prevented the falling of the price on 05.15.2012.
Right now, in the weekly time frame and by considering the price chart you can see the Bullish Wedge pattern which is located on the supportive line of 2011. This patter is one of the most important reversal pattern of the price and indicates the ascend of the price and the end of the falling process. Until the supportive level of 2011 is not broken, we can expect the ascend of the price in the EUR/CAD chart.
The EUR/AUD is in a descending situation and we do not see any sign of reformation and return of the price. Right now, the price is located in the lowest level of itself in the past 20 years. This level belongs to the 07.02.2012. Right now, the price is trying to the green supportive level to reform itself and then start its ascending movement, but because of the pressure of the selling and powerful descending trend, this try has not been successful yet. Right now, the rice is located in the saturation area of sell. In case of keeping the supportive areas, we can expect the reform of the price.
The NZDUSD currency pair ascended from the 0.74570 bottom price and it is stopped after recording the 0.80742 level and reaching the descending trend line and resistance levels. Right now, two important resistance levels are preventing ascending of the price. These two levels are:
Transformative level, which consists of two bottom price, and is playing the role of resistance level.
Descending trend line which is consists of two top prices. in case of falling of the price the current top price will form the third point of the descending trend line in the daily time frame.
The price is located in the saturation sell area and the RSI indicator confirms this state. Also by considering the recent peaks of the price chart and divergence indicator, we notice that they are issuing the warning of the changing in the trend of the market.If the descending candle were closed today, we can hope more ascend of the price. Generally, if the current peak of the price is safe, we can expect more descend of the price and its reform in this chart.
Right now, this currency pair is located in a top price in the daily time frame. The price reordered the 1.03267 level through its previous ascending trend. Currently, the most important resistance level for the price ( all the supportive and resistance level which have round number are important) is the 1.03000 level. This resistance level could influence the price if the ascending trend continued. The buyers can use this level to exit their trades for in short period of time.
Right now, the price is closed under the average of the last 5 days movement. The price and the RSI indicator are in divergence situation. This situation issued the warning of the falling of the price. Noticing the second current peak of the price which recorded the resistance level of 1.03267, we will see 4 daily candles with small bodies which confirm the tiredness and weakness of the buyer for attempting to reach a higher price than May’s.
Right now, the price has reached the ascending trend line during its descending trend. This line has been successful for 3 times in 4h time frame and the price could not pass it. By considering the intense pressure of selling in the daily time frame and closing of the descending candle in the daily time frame, we can expect the possibility of the breaking of the ascending trend’s line and passing of the price from this line.
