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ForexTechnical Analysis(FxGlory.com)

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.23.2024



View attachment USDJPY_H4_Chart_Daily_Technical_and_Fundamental_Analysis_for_07-1024x522.webp


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:


The USD/JPY news analysis today is influenced by several fundamental factors, including economic indicators from the United States and Japan. For the USD, upcoming data from the National Association of Realtors and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond are crucial. Home resales, which reflect consumer confidence and economic health, can significantly impact the USD. Similarly, the Richmond Fed Index provides insights into manufacturing activity, which is vital for economic growth. For the JPY, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is a key indicator. This index reflects the health of the manufacturing sector and overall economic conditions in Japan.


Price Action:

The USD/JPY H4 chart, shows the pair’s bearish trend, with recent price movements forming lower highs and lower lows. The USD/JPY pair, also known as the Gopher has its price currently trending below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a bearish sentiment. The pair has recently found support near 156.46 and resistance around 157.68. The formation of a descending channel suggests further downside potential unless there is a strong reversal signal.



Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud
:

The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud on USDJPY H4 chart, indicating a bearish trend. The Tenkan-sen is below the Kijun-sen , reinforcing the bearish outlook for this pair. The Chikou Span is also below the price, further confirming the bearish sentiment for USD against JPY.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is negative, indicating bearish momentum. The recent contraction of the histogram suggests a potential weakening of the bearish momentum.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:


The key support level is at 156.46, which has been tested multiple times and has held.

Resistance Levels:

The primary resistance level is at 157.68, with another significant level at 158.07.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The Gopher’s technical analysis on the H4 chart exhibits a strong bearish trend supported by the Ichimoku Cloud and MACD indicators. The USD/JPY price action suggests a continuation of the downward movement unless a significant reversal signal occurs. Traders should watch for any breakouts above the resistance level of 157.68 or below the support level of 156.46 for potential trade opportunities. It's essential to monitor upcoming economic data releases for the USD and JPY, as these can impact the pair's direction. As always, employing proper risk management strategies, including stop losses, is crucial in this volatile market.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
07.23.2024

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USD/CAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 24.07.2024


USDCADH4.jpg



Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:


The USD/CAD news analysis today is driven by several economic indicators and significant announcements. For the Canadian dollar, the key factors affecting the value of CAD include the Bank of Canada (BoC) Monetary Policy Report, the BoC Rate Statement, and the Overnight Rate decision. These announcements will provide insights into Canada's economic outlook and monetary policy direction, directly affecting the CAD's strength. For the US dollar, critical economic data releases such as the Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI, and New Home Sales numbers are influential. The PMI figures are expected to show slight changes, with Manufacturing PMI forecasted at 51.6 and Services PMI at 55.3. New Home Sales are anticipated to increase from 619K to 639K, indicating growth in the housing sector. These data points will impact USD performance and the overall USD/CAD forecast today.


Price Action:

The USD/CAD H4 candlestick chart shows the price climbing within a bullish channel, currently facing resistance at the top of the channel. Despite the price increase, the trade volume on this pair is reducing, signaling a potential end to the bullish phase. The price is also at the top line of the Bollinger Bands, indicating overbought conditions.


Key Technical Indicators:

RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI on USDCAD chart is currently above 70, indicating overbought conditions. This suggests a potential for a price correction or a pause in the bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands: USDCAD price is touching the upper band, reinforcing the overbought scenario. Traders should watch for a possible price pullback to the middle or lower bands.



Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:
The nearest support level on this pair is at 1.37610, followed by a more substantial support at 1.37300.

Resistance Levels: The immediate resistance level for USDCAD price is at 1.37785, with a significant resistance at 1.37920, which aligns with the top of the bullish channel.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The USD/CAD technical analysis today indicates a strong bullish trend on the H4 chart, but with signs of overbought conditions as highlighted by the RSI and Bollinger Bands. The reducing trade volume further suggests a possible end to the bullish phase. Given the upcoming economic data releases and the BoC's announcements, traders should remain cautious. The BoC Monetary Policy Report and Rate Statement, along with USD economic indicators like the Flash PMIs and New Home Sales, will provide critical insights for trading strategies. Employ proper risk management and stay alert to news updates for informed trading decisions.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
24.07.2024


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EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 25.07.2024


EURUSD_H4_Daily_Technical_and_Fundamentan_Analysis_for_07_25_2024.jpg

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD forecast today is currently influenced by a series of upcoming economic events and data releases. For the USD, key events include speeches from FOMC members Bowman and Logan, as well as President Biden's announcement. High-impact data such as the Advance GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, and Durable Goods Orders will also play crucial roles. These events are likely to provide significant volatility in the market. In the Eurozone, the Ifo Business Climate Index and ECB-related announcements will shape market sentiment. Strong US economic data and hawkish tones from FOMC members may strengthen the USD, potentially pushing the EUR/USD pair, also known as the Fiber, lower.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD H4 chart has recently broken below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a shift to a bearish trend. The pair is experiencing a downward movement, forming lower highs and lower lows, typical of a bearish trend. The pair’s price action suggests continued downward pressure, with the price finding resistance at the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud:
The price breaking below the Ichimoku cloud is a bearish signal. The future cloud is bearish as well, with Span A below Span B, indicating potential continued downward momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is around 35.39, which is close to the oversold territory. This indicates that while the bearish momentum is strong, there may be limited room for further immediate decline before a potential correction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD indicator shows a negative histogram with the MACD line below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. This suggests that downward momentum is currently prevailing.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels:
Immediate support is found at 1.08345, with stronger support at 1.08000.

Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 1.08574, followed by 1.08870 and 1.09039. A break above these levels would be required to negate the current bearish trend.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD technical analysis on the H4 chart is exhibiting bearish tendencies, confirmed by the price breaking below the Ichimoku cloud and negative signals from the MACD. The RSI suggests the pair is nearing oversold conditions, which could lead to a short-term corrective bounce. However, the overall sentiment remains bearish unless significant resistance levels are breached. As for the Fiber’s fundamental analysis today, traders should closely monitor the upcoming economic data releases and FOMC speeches for further direction. Proper risk management, such as setting stop losses, is crucial in this volatile environment.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
25.07.2024



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GOLD H4 Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 26.07.2024


GOLD_H4_Daily_Technical_and_Fundamental_Analysis_and_Prediction.jpg


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis

The GOLD market (GOLD/USD, XAU/USD) is closely watched by traders due to its safe-haven status and sensitivity to economic data. Today, several key economic indicators from the U.S. are expected to impact the gold market. The Core PCE Price Index m/m, forecasted at 0.2%, is crucial as it influences inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Lower-than-expected data could weaken the USD, potentially boosting gold prices. Additionally, Personal Income and Personal Spending data will provide insights into consumer health and economic activity. Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations also play significant roles, reflecting consumer confidence and future inflation outlook. The ongoing G20 meetings may introduce additional volatility as global economic policies and issues are discussed, affecting currency and commodity markets, including gold.


Price Action
Analyzing the H4 chart for GOLD/USD, we observe a strong bearish trend with the price moving within a descending channel. The recent candles show a clear downward movement, reflecting selling pressure. Despite a few attempts at bullish corrections, the overall momentum remains bearish. The GOLD price is currently trading below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating continued bearish sentiment. The recent interaction with the Fibonacci retracement levels suggests minor support, but the price has largely respected the bearish trend.


Key Technical Indicators
Ichimoku Cloud:
The current XAUUSD price is below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a bearish outlook. The cloud itself is bearish, further supporting the downtrend. This suggests that selling pressure remains strong, and the bearish trend is likely to continue.
RSI (14): The RSI is currently at 31.81, indicating that the market is approaching oversold conditions. While this might suggest a potential for a short-term bounce, the overall bearish momentum could persist until a significant reversal signal is observed.
Volumes: The trading volume shows a gradual increase in selling activity, supporting the bearish trend. Higher volumes on down moves suggest strong participation from sellers, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Parabolic SAR (0.2): The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the candles, indicating a bearish signal. This trend-following indicator confirms the current downtrend, suggesting that the selling pressure is likely to continue.


Support and Resistance
Support Levels:
Immediate support is at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 2366.91, followed by further support at 2330.96.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around 2389.16, with further resistance at the 50% level near 2403.71.


Conclusion and Consideration
The GOLD/USD pair on the H4 chart indicates a strong bearish trend, supported by technical indicators like the Ichimoku Cloud, RSI, Fibonacci retracement levels, and Parabolic SAR. The current price action suggests continued downward pressure, though oversold RSI levels may hint at a potential short-term bounce. Fundamental factors, including today's key U.S. economic data and ongoing G20 meetings, could introduce volatility. Traders should remain cautious and watch for any significant news that might impact market sentiment.


Disclaimer: The GOLD analysis provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information.


FXGlory
26.07.2024

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GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 29.07.2024


GBPUSD_H4_Chart_Daily_Technical_and_Fundamental_Analysis_for_07.jpg



Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:


The GBP/USD news analysis today is significantly influenced by economic indicators from both the United Kingdom and the United States. For the UK, factors such as changes in the money supply, mortgage approvals, and new credit issuance play crucial roles. The recent data from the Bank of England shows an increase in money circulation and credit issuance, suggesting an optimistic economic outlook. In the US, economic indicators such as interest rates, inflation, and job reports affect the dollar. The upcoming Bank of England reports will provide further insights into the UK's economic health, impacting the GBP/USD forecast today.


Price Action:

The GBP/USD H4 chart is exhibiting a downtrend, as indicated by the descending channel formed by the red trend lines. The price is consistently making lower highs and lower lows. The pair also known as the Cable, is struggling to break above the resistance provided by the upper trend line of the channel. This pattern indicates the pair’s bearish sentiment.


Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud:


The price has broken below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a bearish trend. The conversion line (Tenkan-sen) is below the baseline (Kijun-sen), supporting the bearish outlook. The cloud ahead is bearish, suggesting continued downward pressure.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

The RSI is currently at 39.70, indicating the market is approaching oversold conditions. A value below 30 would signal an oversold market, potentially leading to a corrective bounce.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is in negative territory, signaling bearish momentum. The divergence between the MACD and the signal line suggests a strengthening downward momentum.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:


The immediate support level is around 1.26690, which aligns with the lower trend line of the descending channel.

Resistance Levels:

The nearest resistance is around 1.29215, where the price has previously attempted to break above but failed.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The GBP/USD technical analysis today shows the pair's bearish trend on the H4 timeframe, confirmed by the Ichimoku Cloud, MACD, and RSI indicators. Traders should look for potential sell opportunities, particularly if the price continues to respect the upper trend line of the descending channel. Monitoring upcoming economic releases from both the UK and the US will be crucial as they could influence the Cable’s price action. Traders should also be cautious of any corrective bounces that might occur if the RSI reaches oversold levels.



Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
29.07.2024


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EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 30.07.2024


EURUSD_H4_Chart_Daily_Technical_and_Fundamental_Analysis_for_07.jpg



Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD news analysis today is influenced by various fundamental factors such as macroeconomic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical events. For the Euro, recent data releases from INSEE indicate changes in consumer spending and GDP, which are vital for understanding the economic health of the Eurozone. Positive readings typically strengthen the Euro. On the US side, upcoming data on house prices and consumer confidence are crucial. The US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions also play a significant role, with higher interest rates potentially boosting the USD, consequently affecting the pair also known as the Fiber.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD H4 chart shows the pair’s clear bearish trend, with the price moving below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a strong downtrend. The price has recently tested and broken through significant support levels, and there is a descending channel evident, further confirming the bearish sentiment. The Fiber’s price action suggests continued downward pressure unless a significant reversal signal appears.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud:
The price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating bearish momentum. The future cloud is bearish, suggesting that the downtrend might continue. The Tenkan-Sen is below the Kijun-Sen, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 36.35, which is in the bearish zone but not yet oversold. This indicates that there might still be room for further downside before a potential reversal or correction.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic is at 20.22/14.21, indicating oversold conditions. This could suggest that a short-term bounce or correction might be on the horizon if the market finds some support.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels:
The immediate support level is at 1.08148, with further support at 1.07600, the lower bound of the descending channel.
Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance is at 1.08331, followed by 1.08555 and 1.08842, which are the upper bounds of the recent price consolidation and descending channel.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD technical analysis today on the H4 chart shows a strong bearish trend reinforced by key technical indicators. The price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, the RSI indicates bearish momentum, and the Stochastic suggests oversold conditions. Traders should monitor the support at 1.08148 closely; a break below this level could signal further downside. However, oversold conditions might lead to a short-term corrective bounce. As for the pair’s fundamental analysis, data releases from both the Eurozone and the US could provide additional volatility and direction. Risk management is crucial in such a volatile environment, and setting appropriate stop-loss levels is advised.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
30.07.2024
 
EURJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 31.07.2024



EURJPYH4.jpg




Time Zone:
GMT +3
Time Frame:
4 Hours (H4)



Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/JPY pair is influenced by various fundamental factors, including economic indicators from the Eurozone and Japan. For the Euro (EUR), recent data from the Eurozone's economic performance, particularly GDP growth and inflation rates, are pivotal. Reports from the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding monetary policy also play a crucial role. For the Japanese Yen (JPY), key indicators include the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the Bank of Japan's stance on monetary policy. The overall economic health and consumer confidence in both regions are significant drivers for the EUR/JPY pair.



Price Action:
The EUR/JPY H4 chart shows a bearish trend, with the recent price action forming lower highs and lower lows. The pair's price has broken below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a bearish sentiment. The EUR/JPY pair has recently found support near 164.15 and resistance around 168.01. The formation of a descending pattern suggests further downside potential unless a strong reversal signal emerges.



Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud:
The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud on the EUR/JPY H4 chart, indicating a bearish trend. The Tenkan-sen is below the Kijun-sen, reinforcing the bearish outlook for this pair. The Chikou Span is also below the price, further confirming the bearish sentiment for EUR against JPY.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is negative, indicating bearish momentum. The recent contraction of the histogram suggests a potential weakening of the bearish momentum.



Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:


The key support level is at 164.15, which has been tested multiple times and has held.

Resistance Levels:

The primary resistance level is at 168.01, with another significant level at 166.08.



Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/JPY technical analysis on the H4 chart exhibits a strong bearish trend supported by the Ichimoku Cloud and MACD indicators. The EUR/JPY price action suggests a continuation of the downward movement unless a significant reversal signal occurs. Traders should watch for any breakouts above the resistance level of 168.01 or below the support level of 164.15 for potential trade opportunities. It's essential to monitor upcoming economic data releases for the Euro and the Yen, as these can impact the pair's direction. As always, employing proper risk management strategies, including stop losses, is crucial in this volatile market.



Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
31.07.2024


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GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.01.2024


GBPUSD_H4_Chart_Daily_Technical_and_Fundamental_Analysis_for_08_01_2024.jpg



Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The GBP/USD news analysis today is influenced by a variety of fundamental factors. The British Pound is currently affected by the economic outlook in the UK, including inflation rates, interest rates set by the Bank of England, and the overall economic performance as reflected in GDP and employment data. The US Dollar, on the other hand, is influenced by similar factors in the United States, including Federal Reserve policies, inflation rates, and employment figures. Today's economic calendar includes several important data releases for the USD, such as Unemployment Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI, which are expected to have a high impact on the currency. These releases could provide significant volatility and direction to the GBP/USD pair, also known as the “Cable”.


Price Action:
The GBP/USD H4 chart shows the pair trading in a descending channel with clear lower highs and lower lows, indicating the pair’s bearish trend. However, the Cable’s recent price action suggests a consolidation phase around the 1.2830 - 1.2865 range, which may be forming a base for a potential reversal or continuation pattern. The price is currently testing the upper boundary of the channel, indicating a crucial decision point.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud:
The price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting a bearish outlook. The cloud ahead is bearish, providing potential resistance for any upward movement.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is around the neutral 49 level, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This indicates a lack of strong momentum in either direction, aligning with the current consolidation phase.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is in negative territory, indicating bearish momentum. However, the narrowing histogram suggests weakening bearish momentum, which could precede a bullish crossover.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels:
The immediate support levels for the currency pair are at 1.2827 and 1.2810, providing crucial price points where buying interest might emerge to prevent further decline.
Resistance Levels: The resistance levels are at 1.2846 and 1.2865, acting as key barriers where selling pressure might intensify, potentially halting any upward movement.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/USD technical analysis today shows that the pair is currently in a consolidation phase within a broader downtrend. Key indicators such as the Ichimoku cloud and MACD suggest a bearish bias, while the RSI shows a neutral stance. The upcoming economic releases for the USD, particularly the Unemployment Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI, could introduce significant volatility to the pair’s forecast. Traders should monitor these data points closely, as they could determine the pair's next direction. A break above the 1.2865 resistance could signal a potential trend reversal, while a drop below 1.2827 could confirm the continuation of the bearish trend.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
08.01.2024



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USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.02.2024


USDJPY_H4_Technical_and_Fundamental_Daily_Analysis_for_02_08_2024.jpg


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The USD/JPY currency pair reflects the exchange rate between the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). Today, the USD is poised for significant volatility with key economic releases including Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. The Average Hourly Earnings forecast is at 0.3%, which is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. A higher-than-expected figure is positive for the USD. The Non-Farm Employment Change forecast stands at 176K, indicating potential job growth. The Unemployment Rate is forecasted at 4.1%, and a lower-than-expected figure would be favorable for the USD. These indicators are crucial as they impact consumer spending and overall economic health, which traders will scrutinize closely.


Price Action:
The USDJPY pair analysis on the H4 timeframe shows a clear bearish trend. The price has been consistently moving within a descending channel, highlighted by lower highs and lower lows. Recently, the price has tested the lower boundary of the channel, indicating continued bearish pressure. The presence of red candlesticks dominates, confirming the downward momentum. Traders should note the current consolidation near the lower channel line, which might suggest a potential pause or reversal, but the overall trend remains bearish.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA 17 and MA 9):
The 9-period MA is below the 17-period MA, indicating a bearish trend. This alignment supports the downward price movement observed in recent sessions. The convergence and subsequent crossing of the MAs have reinforced the selling pressure.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have shifted above the candles, signaling a bearish trend. Despite a brief change indicated by two spots below the candles, the last three dots have switched back above, confirming the resumption of the bearish trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. The histogram supports this with increasing negative values, suggesting that the selling pressure is intensifying. This bearish crossover aligns with the overall downward trend of the pair.


Support and Resistance:
Support:
Immediate support is located at 148.514, a level that has been tested multiple times recently. This support aligns with the lower boundary of the descending channel and a critical consolidation area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 150835, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This level has acted as a significant barrier in recent attempts to reverse the trend.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDJPY pair on the H4 chart indicates sustained bearish momentum, supported by the alignment of the moving averages, Parabolic SAR, and MACD indicators. The USDJPY price action within the descending channel suggests that the bears are still in control. Traders should consider the impact of the upcoming US economic data releases, which could introduce significant volatility and potentially alter the trend dynamics. It is crucial to monitor these indicators and adjust positions accordingly.


Disclaimer: The USDJPY provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information. Always consider risk management strategies and consult with a financial advisor if necessary.


FXGlory
08.02.2024

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Last edited:
EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.08.2024



EURUSD-Technical-andf-Fundamental-Analysis-for-05.08.jpg



Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD news analysis is set to be influenced by several low-impact news releases today, including the Spanish, Italian, French, German, and overall Eurozone Services PMI. These PMI releases are crucial as they provide insight into the economic health and business conditions in the services sector. A reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while below signifies contraction. Moreover, the Sentix Investor Confidence and Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m data will further contribute to market sentiment. For the US Dollar (USD), the key events to watch are the medium-impact Final Services PMI with a forecast of 56.0, and the high-impact ISM Services PMI expected to be at 51.4. Both these indicators are critical as they reflect the economic health and business conditions in the US non-manufacturing sector.


Price Action:
The EURUSD pair on the H4 timeframe recently exhibited a significant bullish momentum. The price action indicates a breakout from the previous downtrend, marked by a steep rise in the past few sessions. The sharp increase in price has broken through several resistance levels, indicating strong bullish sentiment.


Key Technical Indicators:

Parabolic SAR:
The Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) indicator has placed its last spots below the candles, suggesting a bullish trend. The sharp increase in price aligns with the SAR’s indication, confirming a strong upward momentum.
Alligator: The Alligator indicator, consisting of the Jaw (blue line), Teeth (red line), and Lips (green line), shows a widening of the lines. This indicates a trending market. The Lips (green) have crossed above the Teeth (red) and Jaw (blue), which supports the bullish trend and suggests that the market is waking up to a new upward direction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line has crossed above the signal line with the histogram showing increasing bullish momentum. This crossover and the rising histogram bars indicate a strengthening bullish trend, reinforcing the recent upward price action.


Support and Resistance Levels:

Support Levels:
The immediate support level is at 1.0840 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level), followed by 1.0784 (0.0% Fibonacci retracement level).
Resistance Levels: The key resistance level to watch is at 1.0917, followed by 1.0960 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level).


Conclusion and Consideration:

The EURUSD H4 chart exhibits a robust bullish trend driven by strong upward price action and supported by key technical indicators such as Parabolic SAR, Alligator, and MACD. The market’s recent breakout from the downtrend signals potential for further gains. However, traders should consider the upcoming economic news releases for both EUR and USD, which could introduce volatility and impact the price direction.


Disclaimer: The EURUSD provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information.


FXGlory
05.08.2024


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