The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen surged on Wednesday session. The market tries to move the price towards the 112 level but still with downward pressure in the upper channel. The pair recovered after some losses as it settled close to 111.44 level despite the market sentiment getting better. Asian shares were seen to advance in the Wall street after the Nikkei PMI rallied to 52.9 in March data as its highest in less than two years. On the other hand, the Manufacturing PMI reaching 52.4 this month denoting a steady demand for goods and services. The overall trend of the pair will be in consolidation but the traders should expect choppiness in the trend.
The Resistance level is seen at 112 while the support level comes in at 110 mark and this could persist as the trading range of the pair for some time. A break lower than the 110 mark could induce the pair to further go down towards the 108 level. The 100-SMA maintains its bearish tone while the RSI indicator stayed in neutral after the market lost its impetus to go higher. It is expected for the pair to maintain uptrend before the NFP data to be issued on Friday.
The USD/CAD pair has managed to surpass the 1.3400 barrier during yesterday’s session and was able to keep itself afloat during the past 24 hours. However, it has since deflated and has now reverted towards 1.3400 points. The pair is not expected to make much headway as it is still having troubles with the very strong resistance region of 1.3500 points.
The USD/CAD pair has been affected by a surge in oil prices, as well as news of a US-propelled airstrike on Syria as retaliation to the recent chemical attacks from Assad. This is expected to increase the tension between the two nations, and this, including tensions between US and Russia, will most likely lead to a complete deterioration of the US-Russia relationship anytime soon. On the other hand, the market is still at a loss on whether this piece of news is actually good or bad for the US dollar. The recent flight to safety should have caused the USD to increase under normal circumstances, but since the USD itself was included in the data, this has led to ambiguities in the value of the dollar. The USD/CAD pair has since then retreated to 1.3400 points as the Canadian dollar recovered its losses on the back of strong oil prices which is currently at $53. The repercussions brought about by the airstrike on Syria is expected to be felt once the London session opens, and as such, the USD/CAD will possibly remain under downward pressure.
The US will be releasing its NFP report, while the Canadian economy will be releasing its employment data later today. The NFP report is expected to meet market expectations but there are still no clues on how the Canadian employment report would pan out. If the employment report comes out as impressive, then the USD/CAD could revert to its ranging activity within 1.3300-1.3400 points.
April 11, 2017 07:43 am
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: April 10, 2017
The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen surged on Monday session that brings profit to trades. Although, currently the market is in consolidation state which will most likely continue with the trading range between 112.00 as the resistance level and 110 as the support area. The pair is very sensitive to risks and investors in the stock market should keep an eye on the trend.
The greenback appreciated after the U.S. airstrike in Syria. The balance sheet reduction news and Japanese trade balance influenced the currency and at the same time limits the surge of U.S. dollar.
It tried to continue its buying momentum higher than the 111.50 mark yesterday but failed. It shifted its course after posting a higher range level at 111.54 mark. Although, the price was seen to ease come night session as it moves toward the 111.00 level.
The pair was seen to rebound in the 50-EMA and sustained the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. On the other hand, both 100 and 200-EMAs continued to go lower while the 50-EMA remained neutral. The MACD showed the pair to enter the positive area and if this is sustained, it indicates strong lead of buyers. The RSI indicator has lost its momentum when it is directed downwards. The next bearish target would be at 110.00 mark and a rebound higher than the 111.50 mark implying its lost in dominance while a break more than the 111.50 level opening the chance for the pair to move further towards 112.00 mark.
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The Euro versus the British pound declined a little bit during the Friday session testing the 200-day Exponential Moving Average. If the price breaks lower than the uptrend line this could pull the pair lower which would not be a positive indication and reaching the 0.84 mark would be a significant level hinting to short this pair abruptly. However, if a supportive candle or a rebound is seen, this could bring the price higher than the 0.86 handle. Anyhow, the decline is intriguing as this could hint that the market could make the next move.
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: April 24, 2017
This week brought the EURGBP to a breakdown following attempts of rally towards the 0.85 handle. A significant fall through with this level has higher chances to move deeper.
This scenario could possibly take place in case the French elections continued to sway against the EU direction.
Moreover, the British currency set off in the upside and assumed to extend this influence over the pair. The buying activity is currently ruled out.
The USD/JPY pair had a very volatile trading session last Monday although it managed to finish the session on a much higher note as investors reacted to the first round of the French national elections. However, the currency pair dropped slightly, an indication that investors were pretty much sure of the election results and were now moving towards other geopolitical events such as the North Korean issues and an impending shutdown in the US economy. The JPY could possibly resume its rally if concerns over geopolitical issues would increase over time. Meanwhile, the USD was also unable to stabilize itself due to a drop in Treasury yields and a very dismal US economic data.
As of the moment, the results of the French elections are showing that Macron could easily eclipse Le Pen in the second round of the elections, which is scheduled on May 7. The USD/JPY pair is not expected to make a significant reaction to the election unless Le Pen would be able to surpass Macron’s current lead in the elections. On the other hand, a looming government shutdown is expected from the US economy could possibly happen once the shutdown deadline of April 28 would fail to see the government passing enough legislations to ensure that certain branches of the government would not have to cease operating. Although the economy itself still has some back up funds which could ensure the economic stability of the country for several more months, this is not a good sign for the economy and investors are expected to act in accordance to this particular occurrence. Once this happens, then investors could possibly move towards safer assets such as the Japanese yen.
But the main focus of USD/JPY investors for this week are the events in North Korea, with the demand for safer assets expected to stay in place due to tensions created by the North Korean missile and nuclear program.
The Canadian dollar backtracked during yesterday’s session and this provided enough leeway for the USD/CAD pair to advance towards 1.3500 and even 1.3600 and even reached 1.3626 during yesterday’s trading session. However, as the day progressed oil prices began to improve and this enabled the CAD to recover and has then put downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair, causing it to sink towards 1.3600 and even 1.3550 as yesterday’s session came to a close.
Donald Trump has regained his footing with regards to his rhetoric on neighboring countries, something which has not happened in a few months after Trump seemed to lie low on this particular issue. However, as yesterday’s session saw the President regain his focus on the matter, he has reiterated that he still has his sights set on building a border wall across Mexico. In addition, he also said that he will be realigning the NAFTA agreement with Canada, and this could possibly lead to the US restricting its trade ties with Canada. This has then caused the Canadian dollar to drop in value as traders reacted to this particular news.
For today’s session, the US will be releasing its oil inventory data while there are no expected releases coming from the Canadian economy. Oil prices are expected to remain under pressure, which also means that the Canadian dollar will also be kept under pressure as well.
The GBP/USD pair had a very consistent price action during yesterday’s trading session although it is still located at the 1.2900 trading range which the pair has reached a few trading sessions ago. Unless the currency pair manages to break through this particular trading range, then there is still a risk that the GBP/USD pair could revert anytime into the 1.2600 range in the short term. As of the moment, the pair’s bulls have total control of the currency pair but if the cable pair is still unable to make an upward move in the coming days, then the pair should be pushed down in order to gain more buyers, thereby creating just enough momentum for the pair to shoot past 1.2900 points once the pair rallies again.
During the previous session, the GBP/USD pair underwent a very restricted consolidation mode since the market was busy monitoring the results of Trump’s announcement later that day. After the tax plan was announced, the dollar dropped slightly in value and this caused the GBP/USD pair to climb above the 1.2850 trading range where it looks poised to further reach into the 1.2900 region. The announcement from Trump was unable to improve the dollar outlook as most of the details of the announcement was pretty much priced in by the market. In addition, the market is also somewhat skeptical on whether Trump would be able to actually push through with the tax plan as most of his campaign promises are left unsupported by members of his own party, such as the health care plan. This caused the USD to backfoot which was then used by the GBP/USD pair to gain an advantage in the market.
For today’s session, there are no expected releases from the UK economy while the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data. Traders are advised to take caution as choppy trading is expected today.
The New Zealand currency was able to gain higher against its U.S peer during Monday trades, however, encountered some sort of trouble over the 0.69 handle. The market continued to turn around causing a possible drop below the region 0.69 and a long-term downtrend has to remain. Otherwise, a break on top of the 0.6933 mark will lead the market towards 0.6950.
The market decided to sell off but it seems unsustainable which could possibly make a strong rebound.
The NZD appeared to be highly sensitive with regards the general sentiment of the commodity markets. While a cut through over the region 0.6950 would push the market near 0.70 mark but the possibility of this to happen is much lower.
A sharp and temporary pace is probable and part of it came from the May Day celebrations while volumes were light. Considering this, a door for selling opportunity has opened prior the kiwi was beaten up
A monumental risk on rally within the globe is required for a convincing power that this pair could show a buying signal at any moment.
