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FOREX MARKET: Currency Pair. PRICE CHART, ANALYSIS, AND TRADING SIGNALS.

S&P 500 Enters Bull Market as Tech Drives Rally - 13 June 2023​

S&P 500 ENTERS BULL MARKET TERRITORY AS TECH STOCKS DRIVE RALLY

OPTIMISM SURGES AS MARKET REBOUNDS FROM BEAR MARKET AND AI TECH DOMINATES INVESTOR INTEREST

The S&P 500, buoyed by gains in prominent technology stocks, rallied to close the day in a bull market, marking a remarkable 20% surge since its recent low on October 12, 2022. This milestone brings an end to the bear market that had plagued the index since January 2022.

TECH STOCKS LEAD THE WAY

The broad-based index concluded at 4,293.93, surpassing the threshold that distinguishes a bear market from a bull market. The resurgence of technology stocks, which dominate the S&P 500, has played a significant role in driving this market upswing. Investors have regained their confidence, particularly due to the rising popularity of artificial intelligence (AI) technology.

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London Stocks Flat as US Inflation Looms; Gilt Rates Surge - 13 June​


LONDON MIDDAY: STOCKS FLAT AHEAD OF US INFLATION; GILT RATES RISE.​


FTSE 100 WAS UNCHANGED AT 7,568.46​

The unemployment rate was slightly lower than anticipated in the three months leading up to April, according to data from the Office for National Statistics, although pay growth picked up.

Regular pay, excluding incentives, increased by 7.2% from February to April, exceeding forecasts for a 6.9% increase and up from the previous three months’ gain of 6.8%. The growth rate was the highest outside of the Covid epidemic.

Contrary to forecasts, average total compensation, including bonuses, increased by 6.5% during the quarter, up from a growth of 6.1% during the preceding three months.

The unemployment rate, which was expected to reach 4.0%, was announced at 3.8%, up from 3.7% in the previous quarter but below the 3.9% reported a month earlier.

Although the boost is greatly appreciated by those on low incomes, it comes at a very difficult moment when policymakers want to see spending power reduced, not bolstered, to help slow the rate of price increases. “The hikes to minimum wage levels, up over 10%, partly explain the gain.

The pound increased against the dollar on the news, moving closer to the $1.26 level amid expectations that the Bank of England will keep raising interest rates while the Federal Reserve is prepared to halt tomorrow in the United States.

FTSE 100 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DAILY CHART:​

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Nvidia's Role in AI Boom and Soaring Shares.​

WHAT IS NVIDIA’S ROLE IN THE AI BOOM AND WHY ARE NVIDIA’S SHARES SOARING?

In the wake of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, chip designer Nvidia finished Tuesday with a market value of $1 trillion, marking the first time in recent memory.

Here is a description of Nvidia and how it supports the revolutionary new technology.

HOW MUCH MARKET VALUE DOES NVIDIA HAVE?

The $1 trillion valuation of Nvidia places it behind Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon as the fifth most valuable U.S. firm. Two further businesses, Tesla and Meta Platforms, have previously exceeded the $1 trillion mark but are currently valued less.

NVIDIA’S FOCUS SHIFT: FROM GAMING TO AI

Nvidia, a company best known for its videogame chips, has recently shifted its focus to the data center industry.

During the epidemic, the company’s business dramatically increased. As gaming became more popular, cloud adoption increased and crypto fans began using its CPUs for coin mining.

In the fiscal year that concluded on January 29, the company’s income came from its data center chip division to more than 50%.

GENERATIVE AI: WHY IS IT A HOT TOPIC?

This year, the popular chatbot ChatGPT has made generative AI a hot topic. The technology generates new content, such as poems, photos, and even computer code, using enormous amounts of pre-existing data.

Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp, Google, and other major participants in the market think that generative AI will revolutionize the way that work is done. As they compete to rule the market, the two have hurried to incorporate technology into their search engines and productivity tools.

To threaten Nvidia’s market share, chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices recently revealed information about its new AI chip.

WHAT IS NVIDIA`S ROLE IN THE AI BOOM?

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Oil maintains its current level before Powell’s Senate testimony.

Key Points

1. British Inflation Defies Predictions, Influences Bank Of England Decision

As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell prepares to testify before Congress, oil prices have found stability. Meanwhile, recent data reveals that British inflation has remained resilient, defying expectations of a decline. With inflation holding steady at 8.7% in May, there is an increased likelihood that the Bank of England will implement a hawkish policy decision by raising interest rates by half a percentage point this week.

2. Oil Prices And The Impact Of The Strengthened US Dollar

The cost of goods denominated in other currencies is affected by the stronger US dollar, putting downward pressure on oil prices. The current market conditions reflect this negative impact, as US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures experienced a marginal decrease of 8 cents, equivalent to a 0.11% drop, bringing the price to $71.11 per barrel. Similarly, Brent futures saw a decline of 10 cents, or 0.13%, settling at $75.80 per barrel.

3. Inventory Statistics And Stimulus Measures

Recent analysis indicates that crude stockpiles diminished by an average of almost 400,000 barrels in the week leading up to June 16, contributing to the support of oil prices. The American Petroleum Institute is set to disclose official US oil inventory statistics on Wednesday, followed by the Energy Information Administration on Thursday. Meanwhile, the world’s largest oil importer, China, expects a boost in demand, driven by potential stimulus measures to revive its economy. Furthermore, analysts foresee increased fuel consumption in India’s aviation industry and growing demand in other regions of Asia.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Daily Chart Overview

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Brent Crude Oil is currently trading within a downward channel, showcasing its market trend. The commodity remains positioned above both the 5-day and 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), indicating positive market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests bullishness, while the Stochastic oscillator implies a lack of a clear trend.

Support And Resistance Levels

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Natural Gas Maintains Large June Gain as Storage Data Release Approaches​

As Another Storage Data Release Approaches, Natural Gas Maintains Its Large June Gain.​

Introduction​

In recent times, natural gas futures on the Henry Hub of the New York Mercantile Exchange have experienced significant gains. As another storage data release approaches, the market is eagerly anticipating the results. This article delves into the current state of natural gas, highlighting its performance in June and the factors influencing its prices.


June Gains And Historical Context​

Gas futures on the Henry Hub have had a remarkable month, poised to achieve their highest performance since August. Back then, they reached a 14-year high of $10 per MMBtu (metric million British thermal units), recording a gain of approximately 15%. This surge in prices has caught the attention of market participants, who are beginning to recognize that higher price lows may be more prevalent moving forward.

Price Fluctuations And Summer Heat​

Despite the absence of scorching summer temperatures across the nation, natural gas prices remain relatively stable. Henry Hub’s front-month hit a low of $2.448 this week, showing a slight increase compared to the beginning of June when it reached $2.136. Although the front-month contract experienced a temporary dip of 14 cents or 5.3%, it managed to bounce back, closing at $2.597 with a 4.2% increase.

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GBP/USD Holds Gains Below 1.3100, Eyes US Data​

GBP/USD Holds Onto Slight Gains Below 1.3100, Keeping an Eye on US Data.​

Fundamental Overview​

In the European morning, GBP/USD retains its slight gains below the 1.3100 level, exhibiting a cautious stance without a clear bias. The prospects of a strengthening trend in this major currency pair are underpinned by the divergent policy outlooks of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE). Prior to the release of important US data, any significant corrective decline could be perceived as a favorable buying opportunity.

Despite experiencing a decline on Friday, the GBP/USD pair managed to record a 2% increase over the course of last week. As Monday begins in Europe, the pair is trading within a narrow range around 1.3100, displaying relative stability.

The US Dollar (USD), which witnessed a substantial sell-off on Wednesday and Thursday, managed to hold its ground against other major currencies leading into the weekend. This was supported by the University of Michigan reporting a notable rise in consumer confidence in early July.

On the other hand, the US Dollar Index struggles to build upon Friday’s recovery and continues to trade below the 100.00 level. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index shows a marginal decline and US stock index futures exhibit mixed trading. In the absence of top-tier data releases, a significant drop in Wall Street’s major indexes after the opening bell might stimulate demand for the USD.

Looking ahead, the UK’s Office for National Statistics is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June on Wednesday. Market participants may prefer to remain on the sidelines and wait for this crucial data, which is expected to show a decline from 8.7% to 8.2% annually, before determining whether GBP/USD has further upside potential.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis Daily Chart​

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Technical Overview​


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UNRAVELING THE ENIGMA OF GOLD PRICE FLUCTUATIONS: INSIGHTS AND PREDICTIONS​

Gold Price Consolidates as Investors Await Labour Market Report​

Fundamental Overview​

Gold price fluctuations are keeping investors cautious in anticipation of the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. As the labor market report sets the tone for the Federal Reserve’s September monetary policy, the precious metal struggles to establish a clear direction. Despite the central bank’s aggressive rate-tightening and tight credit conditions, the consensus leans towards continued labor-market resilience.


Even though the US Services PMI underperformed in July and the labor cost index grew at a slower pace in the April-June quarter, Thursday’s economic calendar did not elicit a significant reaction from the gold price. The contraction in US factory activity does little to strengthen the US Dollar, and its effect on the gold price remains limited.

Amidst the underperformance of the US Services PMI and the drop in the labor cost index, the precious metal’s movement remains indecisive.

The gold price continues to drift as Federal Reserve policymakers provide ambiguous interest rate guidance. Despite efforts to curb inflationary pressures, Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee favors continued policy tightening. Conversely, Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed Bank, believes that an interest rate hike in September is no longer necessary.

Gold Technical Analysis Daily Chart​

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AUD/USD's Plunge to 0.6500 Amid US-China Data​

AUD/USD Slumps to Near Two-Month Low of 0.6500 Ahead of US/China CPI Data.​

Introduction​

In the dynamic landscape of global economics, the Australian dollar has faced a significant setback, plummeting to a near two-month low of 0.6500. This decline can be attributed to the robustness of the US dollar and China’s decelerating economic growth. As these market forces intertwine, the AUD/USD pair encounters a formidable challenge, leading to its downward spiral. This article delves into the fundamental factors driving this trend, explores the technical analysis behind the AUD/USD movement, and provides insights into potential trading strategies amidst these fluctuations.

Fundamental Overview​

The Australian dollar’s descent to 0.6500 has been influenced by a confluence of factors. The strength of the US dollar, coupled with China’s sluggish economic expansion, has contributed to this downward trajectory. The United States is poised to witness an annualized headline inflation rise from 3.0% to 3.3%, signifying a potential economic shift. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy grapples with internal demand deficiencies and vulnerable exports, impeding its ability to elevate inflation levels.

The Impact On AUD/USD​

The AUD/USD pair faces a challenging environment characterized by the strengthening US Dollar Index (DXY) and the waning vigor of China’s trade relations. The Australian currency’s value has plunged to a two-month nadir of around 0.6500, with projections indicating a further decline. This apprehension is rooted in the anticipation of a bustling economic calendar and heightened cautiousness among investors.

The Upcoming US CPI Data​

Market sentiment experiences a ripple effect as S&P;500 futures extend losses during the European session. This cautious stance emerges ahead of the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The US Dollar Index escalates past the 102.40 threshold, influenced by the prospect of tenacious July CPI data due to the revival of global oil prices. The potential rise in oil prices may trigger increased gasoline expenses, causing the mitigating impact of cheap oil on headline price pressures to diminish.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis Daily Chart​

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Technical Overview​


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Oil Price Surge Amid OPEC+ Export Decline - Capital Street FX​

Oil Prices Surge as OPEC+ Exports Dip in August.​

Introduction​

In a dynamic twist of events, oil prices witnessed an upward surge on Monday as global supplies tightened due to a reduction in exports from key players Saudi Arabia and Russia. This unexpected turn has managed to assuage lingering concerns about a potential decline in demand, a worry that persisted despite the backdrop of elevated interest rates. This article delves into the driving forces behind the oil price increase, examines the technical factors at play, and provides insights into how this scenario could impact trading decisions.


Fundamental Overview​

Demand Meets Supply: An Unforeseen Shift​

By 0649 GMT, the Brent crude oil price surged by an impressive 61 cents, settling at $85.41 per barrel. Concurrently, the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil observed a noteworthy gain of 63 cents, landing at $81.88 per barrel. Notably, attention turns to the upcoming expiration of the September WTI contract, coinciding with the ascension of the more active October contract that managed to notch a gain of 56 cents, reaching $81.22 per barrel.

The recent narrative had both benchmark prices relinquishing their 7-week winning streak, culminating in a weekly loss of 2%. This decline in fortunes was orchestrated by the ascendancy of the U.S. dollar, driven by speculation that interest rates might retain their elevated status for an extended period. This development coupled with concerns regarding China’s sluggish economic growth and the subsequent implications for oil demand collectively triggered the price drop.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis​

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Navigating The Charts: A Technical Insight​


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EUR/USD Trends: Expert Insights & Trade Strategies - Capital Street FX​

EUR/USD Eases Toward 1.0800 Ahead of Key US Data Release.​

Introduction​

In the midst of anticipation surrounding significant upcoming US data releases, the EUR/USD currency pair is displaying a slight downward movement, inching closer to the crucial 1.0800 level. This article delves into the fundamental and technical aspects influencing this trend, highlighting key market developments and expert insights.

Fundamental Overview​

EUR/USD Faces Downward Pressure Amidst European Trading​

Amidst fresh selling pressure observed during European trading hours, the EUR/USD is experiencing a decline towards the pivotal 1.0800 mark. Despite sluggish yields in the US Treasury bonds, a minor recovery in the US Dollar is exerting downward pressure on the currency pair. Market participants are eagerly awaiting critical US jobs and sentiment statistics that are anticipated to provide directional cues.

Mixed Performance Of EUR/USD In Recent Days​

Following modest gains on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair managed to touch a daily high of 1.0840 during the Asian session on Tuesday. However, as the market eagerly awaits crucial US data releases within the European trading hours, the currency pair is grappling with challenges in gaining significant upward momentum.

US Dollar’s Performance And European Central Bank’s Impact​

Monday’s American session witnessed a decline in the US Dollar against a majority of its counterparts. This was attributed to an improvement in market sentiment and a decrease in US Treasury bond yields. Notably, the European Central Bank (ECB) played a role in supporting the Euro’s position. ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, indicated a possibility of a rate increase in benchmark interest rates, while Joachim Nagel of the Bundesbank suggested a cautious approach.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Daily Chart​

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Technical Overview Of The Currency Pair​


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Currency
Rates
EUR / USD
1.09130
USD / JPY
157.855
GBP / USD
1.27015
USD / CHF
0.91477
USD / CAD
1.36465
EUR / JPY
172.267
AUD / USD
0.67540

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