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forex forecast for one day (USDJPY )

USD/JPY Charges Higher Following Disappointing Trade Balance
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FastBrokers | Oct 22 09 15:01 GMT |
USD/JPY Charges Higher Following Disappointing Trade Balance

The USD/JPY is popping after Japan’s Trade Balance came in much lower than analyst expectations coupled with a downward revision of the previous release. Analysts are eager to point out that Japan’s exports declined at a slower rate. However, the Trade Balance still took a hit, telling us the improvement in imports far exceeded that in exports. The USD/JPY is climbing in reaction to the unexpected outflow of Yen in conjunction with a rally fueled by oversold conditions. The USD/JPY has managed to separate itself from 90 while climbing past our 1st and 2nd tier downtrend lines. However, topside volume is fading and the currency pair still faces our 3rd and 4th tier downtrend lines along with 9/21 highs. Meanwhile, there are many downtrend lines we can construct beyond these barriers due to the currency pair’s extensive deterioration over the medium-term. Therefore, we are cautiously optimistic and will need further topside confirmation before considering revising our outlook on the USD/JPY over the longer-term. As for the downside, the USD/JPY continues to create breathing room. We find cushions in the form of our 3rd tier uptrend line along with 10/21 lows and the highly psychological 90 level.

Meanwhile, all eyes will be on tomorrow’s wave of EU and British econ data long with continued Q3 results. The USD/JPY’s correlation with U.S. equities it’s a bit out of whack these days. However, any broad-based favoritism of the risk trade would likely benefit the USD/JPY’s uptrend. Considering the GBP/USD and EUR/USD have limited topside technical barriers, the USD/JPY’s present run could have more room to go over the near-term.[actionforex]

"P&F USDJPY5 Box Size 10X3 or(0.33%) HI/LO
Data 91.7 - 88.829 ~ 0 Month ~ 9.06 Day
Database 2021 records 91.303 (Last Close)
2009-10-13 20~25
2009-10-22 21~45
(GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group"

91.70|~1O|||________________________________________________________x___|0%|3.23%
91.60|~2O|||________________________________________________________x_o_|0.11%|3.12%
91.50|~3O|||____________________________________________________x___x_o_|0.22%|3.01%
91.40|~4O|||____________________________________________________x_o_x_o_|0.33%|2.89%
91.30|~5O|||========================x===========================x=o=x=o=|0.44%|2.78%
91.20|~6O|||________________________x_o_________________x___x___x_o_____|0.55%|2.67%
91.10|~7O|||________________________x_o_x_______________x_o_x_o_x_______|0.65%|2.56%
91.00|~8O|||________________________x_o_x_o_________x___x_o_x_o_x_______|0.76%|2.44%
90.90|~9O|||____________________x___x_o_x_o_x_______x_o_x_o___o_x_______|0.87%|2.33%
90.80|~1OO||____________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_____o_________|0.98%|2.22%
90.70|~11O||________________x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_______________|1.09%|2.11%
90.60|~12O||________________x_o_x_o___o___o_x_o_____x_o_x_______________|1.2%|1.99%
90.50|~13O||________________x_o_x_________o_x_o_x___x_o_________________|1.31%|1.88%
90.40|~14O||________________x_o_x_________o___o_x_o_x___________________|1.42%|1.77%
90.30|~15O||________________x_o_x_____________o_x_o_x___________________|1.53%|1.66%
90.20|~16O||________________x_o_______________o_x_o_____________________|1.64%|1.54%
90.10|~17O||________________x_________________o_________________________|1.74%|1.43%
90.00|~18O||________________x___________________________________________|1.85%|1.32%
89.90|~19O||________________x___________________________________________|1.96%|1.21%
89.80|~2OO||x___x___________x___________________________________________|2.07%|1.09%
89.70|~21O||x_o_x_o_________x___________________________________________|2.18%|0.98%
89.60|~22O||__o_x_o_____x___x___________________________________________|2.29%|0.87%
89.50|~23O||__o_x_o_x___x_o_x___________________________________________|2.4%|0.76%
89.40|~24O||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___________________________________________|2.51%|0.64%
89.30|~25O||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____________________________________________|2.62%|0.53%
89.20|~26O||__o_x_o___o_x_______________________________________________|2.73%|0.42%
89.10|~27O||__o_x_____o_________________________________________________|2.84%|0.31%
89.00|~28O||__o_x_______________________________________________________|2.94%|0.19%
88.90|~29O||__o_________________________________________________________|3.05%|0.08%
88.80|~3OO||____________________________________________________________|3.16%|-0.03%
Column||||||2_9_9_6_3_4_5_3_145_7_3_7_7_5_7_5_8_4_3_8_5_7_3_3_4_7_3_5_4_|
Count


Excel_USDJPY_Outlook.zip

 
As the greenback has continued to move higher, suggesting gain towards 91.63 is likely, however, as outlook is still consolidative, upside should be limited to 92.00 and further choppy trading below 92.33 resistance would take place, bring another retreat later, however, support at 89.18 should remain intact and dollar should stage a strong rebound from there later this week.
In view of the above analysis, we are trading both sides of the market, selling on further rise for 90.00 or buy on subsequent retreat. Only below support at 89.18 would risk weakness to 88.83 but recent low at 88.01 should hold.[actionforex]



Excel_USDJPY_60min_091105.xls
 
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY's sharp fall and break of 87.12 support last week confirmed out bearish view that the long term down trend is still in progress. With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, some consolidations could be seen initially this week first. But upside is expected to be limited well below 89.44 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 84.81 will target 100% projection of 97.77 to 88.00 from 92.31 at 82.54 next.[actionforex]

"P&F USDJPY30 Box Size 25X3 or(0.85%) HI/LO
Data 92.251 - 85.152 ~ 2 Month ~ 60.06 Day
Database 2000 records 86.181 (Last Close)
2009-10-01 06~30
2009-11-30 08~00
(GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

92.25|~25|||________________________x_______________________________|0%|8.34%
92.00|~5O|||____________________x_o_x_o_____________________________|0.27%|8.04%
91.75|~75|||____________________x_o___o_____________________________|0.54%|7.75%
91.50|~1OO||____________________x_____o_x___________________________|0.81%|7.45%
91.25|~125||________________x___x_____o_x_o_x_______________________|1.09%|7.16%
91.00|~15O||________________x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_____________________|1.36%|6.87%
90.75|~175||________________x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x___________________|1.63%|6.57%
90.50|~2OO||________________x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_______________|1.9%|6.28%
90.25|~225||____________x___x_o_______o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____________|2.17%|5.99%
90.00|~25O||____________x_o_x_____________o_x_o___o_x_o_____________|2.44%|5.69%
89.75|~275||x_o_x_______x_o_x_____________o_x_____o_x_o_____________|2.71%|5.4%
89.50|~3OO||==o=x=o=====x=o=x=============o=======o===o=x===========|2.98%|5.11%
89.25|~325||__o_x_o_x___x_o_x_________________________o_x_o_________|3.25%|4.81%
89.00|~35O||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o___________________________o_x_o_________|3.52%|4.52%
88.75|~375||__o___o_x_o_x_____________________________o___o_________|3.8%|4.23%
88.50|~4OO||______o_x_o_x_________________________________o_________|4.07%|3.93%
88.25|~425||======o===o===================================o=========|4.34%|3.64%
88.00|~45O||______________________________________________o_________|4.61%|3.34%
87.75|~475||______________________________________________o_________|4.88%|3.05%
87.50|~5OO||______________________________________________o_________|5.15%|2.76%
87.25|~525||______________________________________________o_________|5.42%|2.46%
87.00|~55O||==============================================o=====x===|5.69%|2.17%
86.75|~575||______________________________________________o_____x_o_|5.96%|1.88%
86.50|~6OO||______________________________________________o_x___x_o_|6.23%|1.58%
86.25|~625||______________________________________________o_x_o_x_o_|6.51%|1.29%
86.00|~65O||______________________________________________o_x_o_x___|6.78%|1%
85.75|~675||______________________________________________o_x_o_____|7.05%|0.7%
85.50|~7OO||______________________________________________o_x_______|7.32%|0.41%
85.25|~725||______________________________________________o_x_______|7.59%|0.12%
85.00|~75O||______________________________________________o_________|7.86%|-0.18%
Column||||||1_5_4_6_4_4_8_5_9_4_7_2_2_8_5_8_7_5_3_5_4_7_3_186_3_5_3_|
Count




BJF-Trading-Group-USDJPY_mix_091130.xls
 
The short term picture remains positive as the pair continues its strong upward movement. So far the rise is limited by the resistance at 94.70, which is 38.2% FIbo retracement of the 110.64-84.71 drop, and if broken successfully next targets will be the resistances at 96.80 and 97.70, which is 50.0% Fibo retracement of the mentioned drop. On the downside, support is seen at 93.80, followed by 91.80 and 90.20.

"P&F USD
JPY1440
Box Size 130X4 or(4.94%) HI/LO
Data 125.75 - 84.819 ~ 92 Month ~ 2800 Day
Database 2000 records 94.031 (Last Close)
2002-08-06 00~00
2010-04-06 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

126.1|~13O||_________________________________|-0.28%|48.67%
124.8|~26O||XoX______________________________|0.76%|47.14%
123.5|~39O||XoXo________X____________________|1.79%|45.6%
122.2|~52O||XoXo________Xo___________________|2.82%|44.07%
120.9|~65O||XoXo____X_X_Xo___________________|3.86%|42.54%
119.6|~78O||Xo_o____XoXoXo___________________|4.89%|41.01%
118.3|~91O||X__o____XoXoXo___________________|5.92%|39.47%
117.0|~1O4O|___o____XoXoXoX__________________|6.96%|37.94%
115.7|~117O|___o____XoXo_oXo_________________|7.99%|36.41%
114.4|~13OO|___o__X_XoX__oXoX________________|9.03%|34.88%
113.1|~143O|___o__XoXoX__oXoXo_______________|10.06%|33.34%
111.8|~156O|___oX_XoXoX__o_oXo_______________|11.09%|31.81%
110.5|~169O|___oXoXoXoX____oXoX______________|12.13%|30.28%
109.2|~182O|___oXoXoXo_____oXoXo_____________|13.16%|28.74%
107.9|~195O|___oXoXoX______o_oXo_____________|14.19%|27.21%
106.6|~2O8O|___oXoXoX________oXo_____________|15.23%|25.68%
105.3|~221O|___o_oXoX________oXo_____________|16.26%|24.15%
104.0|~234O|_____o_oX________oXo_____________|17.3%|22.61%
102.7|~247O|_______o_________oXo_____________|18.33%|21.08%
101.4|~26OO|=================oXo======X======|19.36%|19.55%
100.1|~273O|_________________oXoX_____Xo_____|20.4%|18.02%
98.80|~286O|_________________oXoXo__X_Xo_____|21.43%|16.48%
97.50|~299O|_________________oXoXo__XoXoX____|22.47%|14.95%
96.20|~312O|_________________o_oXo__XoXoXo___|23.5%|13.42%
94.90|~325O|___________________oXo__XoXoXo___|24.53%|11.89%
93.60|~338O|===================oXoX=Xo=oXoX=X|25.57%|10.35%
92.30|~351O|___________________oXoXoX__o_oXoX|26.6%|8.82%
91.00|~364O|___________________o_oXoX____oXoX|27.63%|7.29%
89.70|~377O|_____________________oXoX____oXoX|28.67%|5.75%
88.40|~39OO|_____________________o_o_____oXo_|29.7%|4.22%
87.10|~4O3O|_____________________________oX__|30.74%|2.69%
85.80|~416O|=============================o===|31.77%|1.16%
84.50|~429O|_________________________________|32.8%|-0.38%
Column||||||654156891994694751117944846749644|
Count|||||||___5____4________415_____________|




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
 
This pair fell to new lows this week. Prices eventually found temporary support from the trend-line for the rally up from the November ’09 lows and the lower channel line of the 4th of June descent. There are some bullish signs including momentum diverging bullishly and the Elliot wave count is showing a possible start of a small 4th wave although more upside is required to confirm. If this is the case the market may rise slowly over the next week to 90.50, which is also the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud.
A break lower, however, could lead to 87.00, the point and figure target down and also the old support lows from the ‘08/’09 bottom. They may also pause on the way down at a support at 88.17.

"P&F USDJPY10080 Box Size60X3 or(10.05%) HI/LO
Data 278.31 - 79.75 ~ 389 Month ~ 11858 Day
Database 1695 records 89.223 (Last Close)
1978-01-01 00~00
2010-06-20 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

***.00|~6OO||____________+___________________________|-1.33%|253.61%
276.00|~12OO|____________x_+_________________________|0.83%|246.08%
270.00|~18OO|____________x_o_+_______________________|2.99%|238.56%
264.00|~24OO|____________x_o___+_____________________|5.14%|231.03%
258.00|~3OOO|____x_______x_o_____x___________________|7.3%|223.51%
252.00|~36OO|____x_o_____x_o_____x_o_________________|9.45%|215.99%
246.00|~42OO|____x_o_x___x_o_x___x_o_+_______________|11.61%|208.46%
240.00|~48OO|____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o___+_____________|13.77%|200.94%
234.00|~54OO|__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____+___________|15.92%|193.42%
228.00|~6OOO|__o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o_+_o_______+_________|18.08%|185.89%
222.00|~66OO|__o_x_o_x_o_x_____+___o_________+_______|20.23%|178.37%
216.00|~72OO|__o_x_o_x_o_____+_____o___________+_____|22.39%|170.85%
210.00|~78OO|__o_x_o_x_____+_______o_____________+___|24.54%|163.32%
204.00|~84OO|__o_x_o_____+_________o_______________+_|26.7%|155.8%
198.00|~9OOO|__o_x_____+___________o_________________|28.86%|148.28%
192.00|~96OO|__o_x___+_____________o_________________|31.01%|140.75%
186.0|~1O2OO|__o_x_+_______________o_________________|33.17%|133.23%
180.0|~1O8OO|__o_+_________________o_________________|35.32%|125.71%
174.0|~114OO|__+___________________o_________________|37.48%|118.18%
168.0|~12OOO|______________________o_________________|39.64%|110.66%
162.0|~126OO|______________________o_________________|41.79%|103.13%
156.0|~132OO|______________________o_x_______________|43.95%|95.61%
150.0|~138OO|______________________o_x_o_____________|46.1%|88.09%
144.0|~144OO|______________________o_x_o_x___________|48.26%|80.56%
138.0|~15OOO|______________________o_x_o_x_o_________|50.42%|73.04%
132.0|~156OO|______________________o_x_o_x_o_x_______|52.57%|65.52%
126.0|~162OO|______________________o___o_x_o_x_o_____|54.73%|57.99%
120.0|~168OO|__________________________o_x_o_x_o_x___|56.88%|50.47%
114.0|~174OO|__________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|59.04%|42.95%
108.0|~18OOO|__________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|61.19%|35.42%
102.0|~186OO|__________________________o_x_o___o___o_|63.35%|27.9%
96.00|~192OO|__________________________o_x___+_____o_|65.51%|20.38%
90.00|~198OO|__________________________o_x_+_______o_|67.66%|12.85%
84.00|~2O4OO|__________________________o_+_________+_|69.82%|5.33%
78.00|~21OOO|__________________________+_____________|71.97%|-2.19%
Column|||||||O_1_1_9_7_5_1_8_3_3_5_2_5_1_1_7_5_5_3_5_|
Count||||||||__O_3_______O_________2___2_O___________|




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
 
A recent analysis USD \ JPY in this thread forum.

=>>> http://www.carigold.com/portal/forums/showpost.php?p=7287163&postcount=8

2010sep05075354.png
 
_____I remain bullish on USD/JPY.
_____Dollar/Yen bottomed out and is now recovering, even without an intervention by the Bank of Japan.
_____The weakness of the Japanese economy is likely to be confirmed now, pushing the pair higher.
_____Trade Idea: Usd/Jpy - Buy (Stop Limit) at 82.40; Target: 84.00 ; Stop: 81.60.

"P&F USDJPY10080 Box Size 270X4 or(9.5%) HI/LO
Data 147.71 - 79.75 ~ 247.38 Month ~ 7273 Day
Database 1040 records 82.518 (Last Close)
1990-12-09 00~00
2010-11-07 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

148.5|~27O||________________+_______________________|-0.53%|86.21%
145.8|~54O||________________x_+_____________________|1.29%|82.82%
143.1|~81O||+_______________x_o_+___________________|3.12%|79.44%
140.4|~1O8O|x_+_____________x_o___+_________________|4.95%|76.05%
137.7|~135O|x_o_+___________x_o_____+_______________|6.78%|72.66%
135.0|~162O|x_o_x_+_________x_o_____x_+_____________|8.6%|69.28%
132.3|~189O|x_o_x_o_+_______x_o_____x_o_+___________|10.43%|65.89%
129.6|~216O|__o_x_o___+_____x_o_____x_o___+_________|12.26%|62.51%
126.9|~243O|__o_x_o_____x___x_o_____x_o_____+_______|14.09%|59.12%
124.2|~27OO|__o_+_o_____x_o_x_o_x___x_o_______+_____|15.92%|55.74%
121.5|~297O|__+___o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_______+___|17.74%|52.35%
118.8|~324O|______o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_______+_|19.57%|48.97%
116.1|~351O|______o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_________|21.4%|45.58%
113.4|~378O|______o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_________|23.23%|42.19%
110.7|~4O5O|______o_x_o_x_o___o___o_x_o_x_o_________|25.06%|38.81%
108.0|~432O|______o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_______|26.88%|35.42%
105.3|~459O|______o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____|28.71%|32.04%
102.6|~486O|______o_+_o_x_________o___o_+_o_x_o_____|30.54%|28.65%
99.90|~513O|______+___o_x_____________+___o_x_o_x___|32.37%|25.27%
97.20|~54OO|__________o_x___________+_____o_+_o_x_o_|34.2%|21.88%
94.50|~567O|__________o_x_________+_______+___o_x_o_|36.02%|18.5%
91.80|~594O|__________o_x_______+_____________o_x_o_|37.85%|15.11%
89.10|~621O|__________o_x_____+_______________o_+_o_|39.68%|11.72%
86.40|~648O|__________o_x___+_________________+___o_|41.51%|8.34%
83.70|~675O|==========o=x=+=======================o=X3.33%|4.95%
81.00|~7O2O|__________o_+_________________________o_|45.16%|1.57%
78.30|~729O|__________+___________________________+_|46.99%|-1.82%
Column||||||4_6_4_1_4_1_1_6_1_1_5_8_1_1_7_9_4_7_4_7_|
Count|||||||______2___2_7___3_3_____2_2_____________|


10Nov142046.PNG
10Nov142314.PNG


BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
 

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USD / JPY
159.986
GBP / USD
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USD / CHF
0.78826
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EUR / JPY
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