Forex Analysis by Ordefoco Asset Management

[Ordefoco Asset Management]

For investors tracking commodities and currency pairs, January 2026 presents an interesting case study. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to show weakness, trading below 100, which typically supports asset prices. However, the correlation between Gold and Bitcoin is tighter than usual, suggesting a unified "store of value" trade is active.

Ordefoco Asset Management has tracked the performance of XAU/USD against BTC/USD. With Gold hovering near 4,600 and Bitcoin stabilizing at 95,000, both assets are acting as hedges against the 2.7% annualized CPI. The market is effectively pricing in a scenario where fiat purchasing power continues to erode, despite the pause in rate hikes.

The key takeaway for traders is the resilience of these assets during equity market pullbacks. Unlike tech stocks, which are sensitive to earnings reports, Gold and BTC are reacting purely to monetary conditions. Ordefoco Asset Management views this as a critical period for portfolio diversification. Holding cash is becoming a guaranteed loss in real terms, making the allocation to hard assets more crucial than ever.

https://www.ordefocoassetmanagement.com/

 

[DeanCorvett]

When markets slide, the biggest damage usually doesn’t come from the headline—it comes from breaking your own rules.

The last U.S. session was a clean reminder: the S&P 500 closed at 6,832.76 (-1.6%), and the Nasdaq fell about 2%. In that environment, I don’t try to “win the day.” I try to protect the portfolio’s ability to compound.

Here are my five red lines—simple, boring, and non-negotiable:

No oversized positions

If a position can hurt me more than my process can explain, it’s too big. I size first, then I debate conviction.

No hidden correlation

If five positions are really the same bet with different names, I treat them as one risk bucket.

No averaging down without a catalyst

Price is not a catalyst. A change in fundamentals, data, or scenario probabilities is.

No “hope-based” risk management

If I can’t describe what invalidates my thesis, I’m not running a thesis—I’m running a mood.

No protection bought in panic

When volatility insurance is cheaper, it’s easier to plan. For context, the VIX closed at 17.44 at the last close. That’s a reminder to prepare early rather than chase protection late.

Discussion question: which one of these rules is hardest for you to follow—position sizing, correlation control, or exits?

Ordefoco Asset Management：https://www.ordefocoassetmanagement.com/

 

[ElliottBranmer]

After Thursday’s sharp risk reset, the message for insurance portfolios is not to panic, and not to chase a rebound. The message is to reprice liquidity and keep duration aligned with what liabilities actually do.

When equities drop hard in a single session, two things typically happen at the same time. Correlations rise, and the cost of being a forced seller rises with them. That is why I treat liquidity as a budget, not as a belief.


The curve still offers carry, but carry is only useful if it matches the payout calendar. The latest published 2Y and 10Y yields remain in a range that rewards laddering, yet the real risk is reinvestment timing. If your cash needs land in a window where you might be selling into stress, then the portfolio is borrowing liquidity from the market. That is not insurance grade behavior.


Credit spreads also matter most on down days, because they reveal whether you are being paid for illiquidity. When spreads are already tight, incremental yield is expensive. Tight spreads do not mean do nothing, they mean be precise. The question is not how to add risk, the question is how to keep the promise fundable if bids thin out.


My Friday routine is simple. I restate the next 30 to 365 day payout map in plain language, I confirm which assets can fund it without forcing a sale, and only then I decide whether risk is being added for return or for resilience.


Ordefoco Asset Management: https://www.ordefocoassetmanagement.com/

 

[DeanCorvett]

In 2026, the global banking sector is focused on balancing profitability with risk management as interest rates remain elevated. This year, banks are expected to see net interest income growth driven by higher rates, but deposit betas and loan growth must be carefully managed.

Key regional trends indicate mixed performance among Asian banks. Singapore’s OCBC has demonstrated consistent growth, while DBS and UOB show more varied results, influenced by broader economic conditions.


Banks that manage credit risk well and diversify their revenue streams through investment banking and asset management will have the best prospects in this high-rate environment.


Ordefoco Asset Management: https://www.ordefocoassetmanagement.com

 

[ElliottBranmer]

2026 has brought about significant shifts in the global investment landscape. As the Global Head of Insurance Asset Management at Ordefoco Asset Management, my role involves navigating these changes with a focus on delivering value to our clients through disciplined investment strategies.

This year, global equity markets have faced challenges, with a notable $21.9 billion in outflows from stock funds. This marks the first major outflow in several weeks, reflecting broader concerns over the global economic outlook. In contrast, bond and money market funds have experienced strong inflows, with $20.2 billion in new investments.



In light of these market movements, Ordefoco has reinforced its commitment to diversification and risk-adjusted returns. By maintaining a balanced portfolio with exposure to both riskier assets and safer havens, we ensure that our clients’ assets are positioned for growth even in uncertain times.



The integration of AI technologies has also played a pivotal role in our strategy. Using data-driven models, we are able to forecast market trends, identify optimal investment opportunities, and tailor strategies to meet the unique needs of our clients.



At Ordefoco Asset Management, our approach is designed to maximize long-term growth while minimizing risk. As the Global Head of Insurance Asset Management, my commitment is to continue leading our clients to financial success, regardless of market conditions.



Learn more about our investment strategies at Ordefoco Asset Management：https://www.ordefocoassetmanagement.com