EURUSD, GBPUSD Long Term Analysis

[bilusky]

Well I for one, do not trust the EUR/USD movements of late. That said I am following what the big money wants and going long. Perhaps there is an option strike for 1.45 or even 1.50?

All I can say is take care at these record breaking lofty levels for the Euro. The rise is happening so fast that any correction is likely to be brutal so get that break even stop in early on any longs and be careful.

really?.......

 

[bilusky]

oh really?

 

[MDunleavy]

EUR/USD's sharp fall from 1.5143 extends further to as low as 1.4828 today and at this point, intraday bias is cautiously on the downside as long as 1.4941 minor resistance holds and further decline should be seen to 1.4801 support first. Break there will confirm that whole rise from 1.4626 has completed and will turn short term outlook bearish for deeper decline to 1.4626 support next. On the upside, above 1.4941 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.5143 is sharp, there is no clear confirmation of medium term reversal yet. Nevertheless, a break of 1.4626 support will be an important indicate that whole medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed and deeper decline should then be seen to 1.3747 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.5143 resistance will indicate that some more rally should be seen before EUR/USD tops.[actionforex]

"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 250X3 or(6.06%) CLOSE
Data 1.5997 - 0.8747 ~ 91 Month ~ 2794 Day
Database 2000 records 1.49869 (Last Close)
2002-04-04 00~00
2009-11-27 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

1.6000|~25O||____________________________________|-0.02%|82.92%
1.5750|~5OO||__________________x_________________|1.54%|80.06%
1.5500|~75O||__________________x_o_______________|3.11%|77.2%
1.5250|~1OOO|__________________x_o_______________|4.67%|74.35%
1.5000|~125O|__________________x_o_____________x_|6.23%|71.49%
1.4750|~15OO|__________________x_o_x___________x_|7.8%|68.63%
1.4500|~175O|__________________x_o_x_o_________x_|9.36%|65.77%
1.4250|~2OOO|__________________x_o_x_o_x_______x_|10.92%|62.91%
1.4000|~225O|__________________x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_|12.48%|60.05%
1.3750|~25OO|__________________x_o___o_x_o_____x_|14.05%|57.2%
1.3500|~275O|__________x_______x_____o_x_o_x___x_|15.61%|54.34%
1.3250|~3OOO|__________x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_|17.17%|51.48%
1.3000|~325O|__________x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_|18.73%|48.62%
1.2750|~35OO|______x___x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o___|20.3%|45.76%
1.2500|~375O|______x_o_x_o_x___x_____o_x_o_______|21.86%|42.91%
1.2250|~4OOO|______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o___________|23.42%|40.05%
1.2000|~425O|______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________________|24.99%|37.19%
1.1750|~45OO|__x___x_o___o___o_x_________________|26.55%|34.33%
1.1500|~475O|__x_o_x_________o___________________|28.11%|31.47%
1.1250|~5OOO|__x_o_x_____________________________|29.67%|28.62%
1.1000|~525O|__x_o_x_____________________________|31.24%|25.76%
1.0750|~55OO|__x_o_______________________________|32.8%|22.9%
1.0500|~575O|__x_________________________________|34.36%|20.04%
1.0250|~6OOO|__x_________________________________|35.93%|17.18%
1.0000|~625O|__x_________________________________|37.49%|14.32%
0.9750|~65OO|__x_________________________________|39.05%|11.47%
0.9500|~675O|__x_________________________________|40.61%|8.61%
0.9250|~7OOO|__x_________________________________|42.18%|5.75%
0.9000|~725O|o_x_________________________________|43.74%|2.89%
0.8750|~75OO|o___________________________________|45.3%|0.03%
0.8500|~775O|o___________________________________|46.87%|-2.82%
Column|~8OOO|3_124_8_4_7_7_3_4_178_4_108_7_4_3_9_|
Count




BJF-Trading-Group-EURUSD_091128mix.xls

 

[MDunleavy]

EUR/USD's corrective rise from 1.3266 might still be in progress but we'd continue to anticipate strong resistance at 1.3570 to conclude the correction and bring fall resumption. Below 1.3384 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3266 first. However, note that decisive break of 1.3570 will indicate that the five wave sequence from 1.5143 is completed and stronger rebound should then be seen to 1.3817 resistance and above.

"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 200X3 or(4.68%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.9607 ~ 92 Month ~ 2796 Day
Database 2000 records 1.35043 (Last Close)
2002-08-05 00~00
2010-04-01 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

1.6200|~2OO||______________________________________________|-1.01%|68.63%
1.6000|~4OO||__________________x___x_______________________|0.24%|66.55%
1.5800|~6OO||__________________x_o_x_o_____________________|1.48%|64.46%
1.5600|~8OO||__________________x_o_x_o_____________________|2.73%|62.38%
1.5400|~1OOO|__________________x_o___o_____________________|3.98%|60.3%
1.5200|~12OO|__________________x_____o_____________________|5.23%|58.22%
1.5000|~14OO|__________________x_____o_________________x___|6.47%|56.14%
1.4800|~16OO|__________________x_____o_x_______________x_o_|7.72%|54.05%
1.4600|~18OO|__________________x_____o_x_o_____x_______x_o_|8.97%|51.97%
1.4400|~2OOO|__________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_|10.21%|49.89%
1.4200|~22OO|__________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_|11.46%|47.81%
1.4000|~24OO|__________________x_____o___o_____x_o_____x_o_|12.71%|45.73%
1.3800|~26OO|__________________x_________o_____x_o_____x_o_|13.95%|43.65%
1.3600|~28OO|__________x_______x_________o_____x_o_x___x_o_|15.2%|41.56%
1.3400|~3OOO|__________x_o_x___x_________o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|16.45%|39.48%
1.3200|~32OO|__________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x___x_o_x_o_x___|17.7%|37.4%
1.3000|~34OO|__________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____|18.94%|35.32%
1.2800|~36OO|______x___x_o___o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_______|20.19%|33.24%
1.2600|~38OO|______x_o_x_____o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_________|21.44%|31.15%
1.2400|~4OOO|______x_o_x_____o_x_________o___o_____________|22.68%|29.07%
1.2200|~42OO|______x_o_x_____o_x___________________________|23.93%|26.99%
1.2000|~44OO|______x_o_x_____o_x___________________________|25.18%|24.91%
1.1800|~46OO|__x___x_o_______o_____________________________|26.42%|22.83%
1.1600|~48OO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|27.67%|20.75%
1.1400|~5OOO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|28.92%|18.66%
1.1200|~52OO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|30.17%|16.58%
1.1000|~54OO|__x_o_x_______________________________________|31.41%|14.5%
1.0800|~56OO|__x_o_________________________________________|32.66%|12.42%
1.0600|~58OO|__x___________________________________________|33.91%|10.34%
1.0400|~6OOO|__x___________________________________________|35.15%|8.25%
1.0200|~62OO|__x___________________________________________|36.4%|6.17%
1.0000|~64OO|o_x___________________________________________|37.65%|4.09%
0.9800|~66OO|o_x___________________________________________|38.9%|2.01%
0.9600|~68OO|______________________________________________|40.14%|-0.07%
Column|||||||2_1_5_1_5_9_4_3_8_2_3_3_1_4_1_4_4_1_1_5_3_1_8_|
Count||||||||__1___0___________1_____0___2_____1_0_____0___|



BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

 

[MDunleavy]

First.
Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy Limit at 1.2100; Target: 1.2250; Stop: 1.2025.
Then.
Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell Limit at 1.2250; Target: 1.1650 ; Stop: 1.2325.

The EUR/USD finally broke below the triangle, but did so after two false breakouts. The pair
has moved higher after putting in lows below 1.1900. The week was closed out with the EUR/USD
at 1.2110. The resistance comes in at 1.2150-1.2200. This is the former support level which
created the triangle (see chart at bottom). If that resistance band hold, expect continued
selling pressure. Support comes in at 1.2050, 1.1950 and 1.1875. Penetration of the recent
low at 1.1875 has a target of 1.1650.

"P&F EURUSD10080 Box Size 250X3 or(6.18%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.8225 ~ 152 Month ~ 4627 Day
Database 662 records 1.21112 (Last Close)
1997-10-05 00~00
2010-06-06 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

1.6000|~25O||______________________x_+_________________|0.24%|94.53%
1.5750|~5OO||______________________x_o_+_______________|1.8%|91.49%
1.5500|~75O||______________________x_o___+_____________|3.35%|88.45%
1.5250|~1OOO|______________________x_o_____+_______+___|4.91%|85.41%
1.5000|~125O|______________________x_o_______+_____x_+_|6.47%|82.37%
1.4750|~15OO|______________________x_o_x_______+___x_o_|8.03%|79.33%
1.4500|~175O|______________________x_o_x_o_____x_+_x_o_|9.59%|76.29%
1.4250|~2OOO|______________________x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_|11.15%|73.25%
1.4000|~225O|______________________x_o___o_____x_o_x_o_|12.71%|70.21%
1.3750|~25OO|______________________x_____o_____x_o_x_o_|14.27%|67.17%
1.3500|~275O|__________________x___x_____o_____x_o_x_o_|15.82%|64.13%
1.3250|~3OOO|__________________x_o_x_____o_x___x_o_x_o_|17.38%|61.09%
1.3000|~325O|__________________x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|18.94%|58.05%
1.2750|~35OO|______________x___x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|20.5%|55.02%
1.2500|~375O|______________x_o_x_o_x_____o___o___o___o_|22.06%|51.98%
1.2250|~4OOO|__x___________x_o_x_o_x_______________+_o_|23.62%|48.94%
1.2000|~425O|__x_o_________x_o___o_x_____________+___o_|25.18%|45.9%
1.1750|~45OO|==x=o=====x===x=====o=============+=====+=|26.74%|42.86%
1.1500|~475O|__x_o_____x_o_x_________________+_________|28.3%|39.82%
1.1250|~5OOO|o_x_o_____x_o_x_______________+___________|29.85%|36.78%
1.1000|~525O|o_x_o_____x_o_______________+_____________|31.41%|33.74%
1.0750|~55OO|o___o_____x_______________+_______________|32.97%|30.7%
1.0500|~575O|____o_____x_____________+_________________|34.53%|27.66%
1.0250|~6OOO|____o_____x___________+___________________|36.09%|24.62%
1.0000|~625O|____o_____x_________+_____________________|37.65%|21.58%
0.9750|~65OO|____o_____x_______+_______________________|39.21%|18.54%
0.9500|~675O|____o_x___x_____+_________________________|40.77%|15.5%
0.9250|~7OOO|____o_x_o_x___+___________________________|42.32%|12.46%
0.9000|~725O|____o_x_o_x_+_____________________________|43.88%|9.42%
0.8750|~75OO|____o_x_o_x_______________________________|45.44%|6.38%
0.8500|~775O|____o_x_o_________________________________|47%|3.34%
0.8250|~8OOO|____o_+___________________________________|48.56%|0.3%
0.8000|~825O|____+_____________________________________|50.12%|-2.74%
Column|||||||3_6_1_5_4_1_3_7_3_6_7_1_8_3_9_3_3_8_8_1_1_|
Count||||||||____6_____3___________7_______________O_2_|


BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

 

[CoreDuo]

Takdo ke masta2 yg analisis GU ni?

 

[asan]

aku pun baru blajr, x de keje aku buatlah analisa ,ntah betul tidak

 

[irsaffy]

manual counting ke atau guna indi tu??

 

[asan]

pakai fibo je bro,sikit cci 4hje

 

[MDunleavy]

The euro is testing the rising trendline; penetration would indicate that the recent rally has
weakened, and reversal below 1.2500 would indicate another test of primary support at 1.1900.
I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

"P&F EURUSD5 Box Size 25X3 or(0.58%) HI/LO
Data 1.3333 - 1.2663 ~ 1 Month ~ 23.49 Day
Database 5000 records 1.27105 (Last Close)
2010-07-28 11~15
2010-08-20 22~55 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

1.3325|~25|||______________+___________________________|0.06%|5.23%
1.3300|~5O|||______________x_o_________________________|0.25%|5.03%
1.3275|~75|||______________x_o_+_______________________|0.44%|4.83%
1.3250|~1OO||______x_______x_o___+_____________________|0.62%|4.64%
1.3225|~125||______x_o_x___x_o_x___+___________________|0.81%|4.44%
1.3200|~15O||______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o___+_________________|1%|4.24%
1.3175|~175||______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____+_______________|1.19%|4.04%
1.3150|~2OO||______x_o_x_o___o_x_o_______+_____________|1.37%|3.85%
1.3125|~225||______x_o_____+_o_x_o_________+___________|1.56%|3.65%
1.3100|~25O||__x___x_____+___o_x_o___________+_________|1.75%|3.45%
1.3075|~275||__x_o_x___+_____o___o_____________+_______|1.94%|3.25%
1.3050|~3OO||__x_o_x_+___________o_______________+_____|2.12%|3.06%
1.3025|~325||o_x_o_x_____________o_________________+___|2.31%|2.86%
1.3000|~35O||o_x_o_______________o___________________+_|2.5%|2.66%
1.2975|~375||o_+_________________o_____________________|2.69%|2.46%
1.2950|~4OO||+___________________o_____________________|2.87%|2.27%
1.2925|~425||____________________o_x___________________|3.06%|2.07%
1.2900|~45O||====================o=x=o=x===x===x===x===|3.25%|1.87%
1.2875|~475||____________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|3.44%|1.67%
1.2850|~5OO||____________________o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|3.62%|1.48%
1.2825|~525||________________________o_x_o_x_o___o_x_o_|3.81%|1.28%
1.2800|~55O||________________________o___o_x_____o_x_o_|4%|1.08%
1.2775|~575||============================o=x=====o=+=o=|4.19%|0.88%
1.2750|~6OO||____________________________o_______+___o_|4.37%|0.69%
1.2725|~625||________________________________________o_|4.56%|0.49%
1.2700|~65O||________________________________________o_|4.75%|0.29%
1.2675|~675||________________________________________o_|4.94%|0.09%
1.2650|||||||________________________________________+_|5.12%|-0.1%
Column|||||||3_5_4_1_5_4_3_6_1_6_1_3_5_4_6_6_3_3_5_5_9_|
Count||||||||______O_________O___5_____________________|

BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.