EURUSD, GBPUSD Long Term Analysis

[Tango]

GU-TF4hrs..

P/S Trade @ ur own risk

 

[timbecks777]

EUR/USD Medium Term Outlook

As a whole, there is no change in the wave count since the last update. The chart shows the movement started from 0.8563 (February 2001). As I wrote many times I think that the previous downtrend ended at this level (with a reversal triangle) and started the current very strong up-move in favor of the euro. It is obvious that the first wave from the up-move ended at 1.3664 (December 2004), followed by a corrective wave down to 1.1639 (November 2005) and subsequent resuming of the up-move i.e. we have three waves till now for the movement started from 0.8563. In my opinion all of them are corrective in nature This and the fact that I count the rise started from 0.8563 as wave [C] make me think that the movement started from 2001 is a giant terminal impulse (ending diagonal) with extended first wave. Wave 3 should be already over at 1.4966 (November 2007) and we should be currently in wave 4 with minimum requirement overlapping of wave 1 (1.3664) and more natural target 1.3300 – 50 % retracement of wave 3, followed by another strong rise in wave 5 with target 1.5000. With an eye on the fact that wave 2 took 11 month, it is logical the current wave 4 to take 6-7 month i.e. till the middle of the year. The interesting here is the fact that if the presented count proves to be correct, we should see a complete retrace of the potential terminal impulse once it is over (this should happen in the end of the year earliest). So the presented analysis suggests a reversal of the long term trend from levels around 1.5000 with a sharp sell-off below 0.8563 for 3-4 years. Argument in favor of such an idea is the fact that terminal impulses are always completely retraced for a less time than they took to form and most of the times this happens for 50 % of the time needed to develop such a pattern.

 

[timbecks777]

USD/JPY Medium Term Outlook

The suggestion form June 2007 for a giant terminal impulse started from 101.66 (January 2005) looks the best scenario at the moment. This count is presented on the chart and suggests that the terminal impulse finished at 124.12 (June 2007). We saw a sharp sell-off from the last level and the interesting here is the fact, that the down move should accelerate from here and we should see much lower prices in coming weeks and months. The minimum requirement for the current fall is 101.66 i.e. a complete retracement of the pattern but I don’t think that there will be any significant correction before 96.50 (at this level wave 3 of the fall will be 161.8 % of wave 1 on logarithmic scale). A key resistance is 114.63 and as long as this pair stays below it, the perspectives are extremely bearish.

 

[Tango]

Just my opinion...

 

[handymanny]

nice outlook tango....

GU update...

just prediction time will tell

 

[handymanny]

EURUSD update...

 

[handymanny]

weekly outlook.. potential reverse to 2.xxxx ? Only God Knows

 

[Tango]

DT still intag in GU-TF daily...Bullish above pink colour
my opinion

 

[handymanny]

good...anyway buy low sell high....buy now SL kecik...kalau dah naik baru nak buy maybe SL potensi nak kene..fikir2kan

 

[handymanny]

cayalah GU naik