Daily Technical Analysis by XtreamForex

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Bitcoin – Bulls Hold on to $7,000 with $7,300 the next Target

It’s another poor start to the day, though holding on to $7,000 levels through the morning could see the bulls take the reins later in the day.
Bitcoin gained 3.04% on Tuesday, following on from Monday’s 2.91% rise and the previous two weeks of gains, to end the day at $7,081.1.
A relatively range bound start to the day saw Bitcoin steer clear of the day’s major support and resistance levels until a late morning rally, Bitcoin breaking through to $7,000 levels and the day’s first major resistance level at $7,011.9 and second major resistance level at $7,121.8 to a morning high $7,126.1.
Sub-$7,000 support held Bitcoin back from a reversal through the afternoon, with Bitcoin breaking back through the second major resistance level at $7,121.8 with a late in the day intraday high $7,127.9, before easing back to sub-$7,100 levels by the day’s end.
It was Bitcoin’s first close at $7,000 levels since 5th August, with the moves through the start of the week seeing Bitcoin begin to form a near-term bullish trend, though a break through the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,376 would be needed to begin reversing the extended bearish trend formed back at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999.
The recent moves have come in spite of lingering concerns over the planned roll out of cryptomarket rules and regulations by the G20, more heavy handedness by the Chinese government and the SEC’s rejection and review of 9 Bitcoin ETF applications last week.
A fall in short positions, according to last week’s CFTC figures provided some early signs that the extended bearish trend may be coming to an end, supporting the start of the week gains, though much will continue to depend on regulators.
Expectations are that the SEC will approve a number of Bitcoin ETFs in the coming months that limited the damage following the SEC decision last week, which does continue to leave Bitcoin and the broader market exposed heavily to regulatory risk over the near-term.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was 0.34% to $7,055.6, in what’s been another relatively range bound start to the day.
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Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Weekly Chart Strengthens Over $1220.10, Weakens Under $1207.10

Based on last week’s close at $1206.70, the direction of the December Comex Gold market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term uptrending Gann angle at $1207.10.
December Comex. Gold futures finished lower last week while consolidating for a second week inside the $1221.40 to $1167.10 range from the week-ending August 17. The price action was primarily driven by the direction of the U.S. Dollar. However, more importantly, hedge funds and money managers reduced their net short positions for the first time in a month. This may be an early sign of a bottom.
Weekly Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $1167.10 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This could lead to a test of the December 16, 2016 main bottom at $1162.00.
The market is in no position to change the main trend to up. The same goes for the minor trend, which is also down. However, taking out $1221.40 could have the same effect as a breakout to the upside because this high has limited gains the last two weeks. The current inside trading weeks tend to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility.

The first major upside target area is a long-term retracement zone at $1250.60 to $1277.70.

Weekly Technical Forecast
Based on last week’s close at $1206.70, the direction of the December Comex Gold market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term uptrending Gann angle at $1207.10.
A sustained move over $1207.10 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the steep downtrending Gann angle at $1220.10. This angle, moving down $4.00 per week from the $1388.10 main top the week-ending April 13, has been guiding gold prices lower for 21 weeks.
We could see a technical bounce on the first test of $1220.10, but if it’s taken out, we could see an acceleration to the upside with $1250.60 the next likely target. This is the trigger point for another acceleration into $1277.70. This price is 50% of the long-term range.
A sustained move under $1207.10 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a steep break into the next long-term uptrending Gann angle at $1185.10. This is the last potential support angle before the $1167.10 low and the $1162.00 main bottom.
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USD/JPY Initiates Bearish Sequence Amid Failed Run at August-High

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bullish
JAPANESE YEN TALKING POINTS

The recent rebound in USD/JPY unravels following the failed attempt to test the monthly-high (112.15), but fresh data prints coming out of the U.S. economy may prop up the exchange rate as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to increase another 191K in August.
Signs of a more robust labor market should keep the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on track to further normalize monetary policy as the central bank largely achieves its dual mandate for full-employment and price stability, and Fed officials may ultimately prepare U.S. households and businesses for four rate-hikes in 2018 as the updates are also anticipated to show Average Hourly Earnings climbing to 2.8% from 2.7% in July.Keep in mind, Fed Fund Futures continue to reflect expectations for higher borrowing-costs, with market participants gearing up for a move in September and December, and a batch of positive developments may heighten the appeal of the U.S. dollar as it puts pressure on the FOMC to extend the hiking-cycle.

However, a set of lackluster data prints may drag on the greenback as Chairman Jerome Powell talks down the risk for above-target inflation, and central bank officials may continue to project a longer-run Fed Funds rate of 2.75% to 3.00% as ‘‘there does not seem to be an elevated risk of overheating.’ Until then, USD/JPY may continue to give back the advance from the August-low (109.77) following the failed attempt to test the monthly-high (112.15), with the exchange rate at risk of exhibiting a more bearish behavior over the coming days as it starts to carve a series of lower highs & lows.
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US Dollar Rallying to Start September as August’s Concerns Carry Over.

Talking Points:
– Emerging market currencies remain under a significant amount of presure, with both the Argentinian Peso and the Turkish Lira extending their losing streaks.
– Talks between Canada and the US over the NAFTA negotiations are ongoing but making little progress; meanwhile, US President Trump may be close to announcing the implementation of $200 billion of tariffs on Chinese goods.
The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) is starting off September on positive footing, rising to its highest level since August 24 in the process. Even as the calendar has flipped into the final month of the quarter, many of the old concerns that have influenced price action remains as the key drivers: trade wars emanating from the United States; contagion among emerging market economies; and geopolitical tensions surrounding Syria.
With respect to trade wars, the start of September already has two significant developments to watch for. In terms of the NAFTA negotiations, it’s been reported that Canada and the US are making little progress, and that US President Trump is likely to move forward in presenting Congress with the Mexico-only version of the trade deal.The goodwill that we saw built into the Canadian Dollar in the first few weeks of August was all but eliminated at the end of the month, and USD/CAD is now positioned in a manner to suggest the move below 1.2950 was a false breakdown attempt. As such, the recent pullback from the yearly highs may be viewed as a consolidation period before a continuation effort; a move through the late-August swing highs near 1.3175 would be revealing.
Elsewhere on the trade war front, it appears that US President Trump is on the verge of implementing another $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods later this week. USD/CNH is trading back higher through 6.85 again, but the fireworks for global market participants would really begin if USD/CNH eclipsed 7.00.
Meanwhile, the beginning of September is also seeing the continuation of contagion spread through emerging market economies. The Turkish Lira meltdown at the start of August dragged all emerging market economies with high external debt-to-GDP ratios, high inflation, and large current account deficits (as a percentage of GDP) into the firing line, and the ramifications are still being felt by EM currencies like the Argentinian Peso and the South African Rand today.
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EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for September 4, 2018

Based on the current price at 1.1557 and the earlier price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1581. A sustained move under 1.1581 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1534. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a quick test of the 50% level at 1.1518.
Weakness in emerging market currencies is helping to fuel contagion fears, driving investors into the U.S. Dollar, while putting pressure on the Euro.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 1.1734 will change the main trend to up.
The minor trend is down. This is helping to drive the downside momentum. A trade through 1.1530 will reaffirm the downtrend.
The minor range is 1.1530 to 1.1734. The EUR/USD is currently trading on the weak side of its 50% level or pivot at 1.1632, helping to contribute to the downside bias. This level is new resistance.
The main range is 1.1301 to 1.1734. Its retracement zone at 1.1518 to 1.1466 is the primary downside target. Since the main trend is up, buyers may re-emerge on the first test of this area.
Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at 1.1557 and the earlier price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1581.
A sustained move over 1.1581 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a retest of the resistance cluster at 1.1632 to 1.1634. This area provided resistance earlier in the session. Overtaking 1.1634 could trigger a breakout to the upside.
A sustained move under 1.1581 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1534. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a quick test of the 50% level at 1.1518.
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Gold Price Prediction – Prices Consolidate Following Soft Private Payroll Report

Gold prices edge higher as the dollar lost some ground following a weaker than expected private payrolls report released on Thursday by ADP. The report weighed on treasury yields as the surprising miss led traders to believe that the Fed might hold rates unchanged following a tightening in September. The decline in private payrolls was the lowest increase in jobs since October of 2017. Prices are consolidating and will take their cues from trading the greenback.

Technical Analysis
Gold prices moved higher but were unable to push above resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1,201. Additional resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,217. Momentum appears to be neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with a flat trajectory which points to consolidation. The fast stochastic is still reflecting accelerating negative momentum following the recent crossover sell signal. On a weekly basis it appears that gold is forming a bear flag pattern which is a pause that refreshes lower. It will be difficult for prices to take another leg down without a dollar rally.ADP Payroll Report Missed Expectations
According to ADP private companies added 163K jobs in August which was a significant decline from the 217K added in July. Expectations were for a rise of 190K jobs. Small businesses were the driving force behind the dip in hiring. Business with fewer than 50 employees added just 19K jobs in August while medium size firms added 111K. Large companies with more than 500 workers added 31K jobs as trade tariffs concerns kept many companies on the sidelines. Services providers added the bulk of the jobs which increased by 139K. Business and professional services increased by 35K. Leisure and hospitality also contributed 25,000, followed by trade, transportation and utilities with 21,000. On the goods-producing side, manufacturing saw 19,000 new jobs and construction added 5,000 workers.
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Bitcoin Unravels as Goldman Says No and Bears Cry Foul

The Bitcoin slide continues in the early hours, with side lined investors looking to see if the early reversal is a spillover or a sign of more pain ahead.
Bitcoin slid by 8.81% on Wednesday, reversing Tuesday’s 1.23% gain with venom, to end the day at $6,710.7.
A particularly range bound start to the day saw Bitcoin hover at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,376, with Bitcoin managing to move back through to $7,400 levels with a morning high $7,404 before the cryptomarket bombshell hit the news wires.
News of Goldman Sachs hitting pause on its plans to roll out a cryptocurrency trading desk hit the wires, leading to a late morning sell-off across the cryptomarket, with Bitcoin sliding through the day’s major support levels to a morning low $6,921.5 before steadying through the afternoon, support at the day’s third major support level at $7,000 kicking in to fend off more severe losses.
A second sell-off late in the day saw Bitcoin slide to an intraday low $6,700, the second sell-off removing the chances of a swift return to $7,000 levels, with Bitcoin pulling back through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757.
While the news of Goldman Sachs hitting pause raised concerns over the much talked about inflows of institutional money needed to steady a particularly volatile cryptomarket, news of cryptocurrency manipulation weighed further, with reports hitting the news wires of a sizeable short position being placed ahead of the late morning sell-off, pointing to market manipulation.
For the market, Goldman’s announcement may be a bigger issue, but with the SEC currently reviewing the rejection of 9 Bitcoin ETF applications, any noise of market manipulation and that could be the end of any near-term hopes of an approval for a Bitcoin ETF and may well result in regulators coming up with more debilitating rules that would really spell trouble for the Bitcoin bulls and the broader cryptomarket.
And, when it rains it pours, with reports hitting the news wires in the early hours of this morning of Bruegel, a Belgian think tank, releasing a report stating that cryptocurrency and ICO regulations should be introduced by the EU for the region. While think tanks tend to have little influence, it was reported that Bruegel’s report will likely be distributed to EU ministers ahead of Friday and Saturday’s gathering of EU finance ministers who have cryptocurrencies to discuss.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 3.89% to $6,443, with Wednesday’s reversal continuing into the early hours of this morning, Bitcoin sliding through the day’s first major support level at $6,472.47 to a start of a day morning low $6,302.2 before recovering to $6,400 levels. An early morning $6,731.3 high left the first major resistance level at $7,176.47 and the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757 untested.
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Euro Forecast: ECB Meeting Eyed, Even if Policy is on Preset Course

Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD: Neutral
– The Euro finished in the middle of the pack last week, with EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, and EUR/CHF leading to the downside – a sign that risk appetite is deteriorating.
– Thursday’s ECB meeting should bring little new information as policy was preset for the next year back at the June meeting; a mention of European banks’ exposure to Turkish borrowers would excite markets.
For the second week in a row, the Euro finished in the middle of the pack, losing ground against four of the major currencies while gaining ground against the remaining three. Among the EUR-crosses that lost ground, there is a noticeable pattern: all of the safe havens performed well last week. EUR/JPY led to the downside with a loss of -0.46%, EUR/USD followed lower by -0.42%, and EUR/CHF dropped by -0.39%. Similarly, the Euro gained ground against all of the commodity currencies.
If there is indeed a discernible, negative shift in risk appetite transpiring among developed market currencies, then it’s time to declare that contagion from emerging markets and persistent trade war tensions may have finally started to take their toll.
Coincidentally, given that the emerging market turmoil accelerated upon the release of a report by the Financial Times in early-August that said that the ECB’s supervisory arm was reviewing European banks’ exposure to Turkish borrowers, we’re keenly interested in seeing what ECB President Mario Draghi has to say this Thursday at the ECB’s September policy meeting.
After all, Turkish borrowers owe European banks $194 billion, according to the Bank of International Settlements. A protracted depreciation by the Turkish Lira could very well set off a wave of defaults on these obligations, forcing European banks to write down bad loans. The erosion of excess capital held by European banks could give the ECB pause to its current plans to wind down its QE program by December 2018 and raise rates by “summer 2019.”
Barring a significant discussion over Turkey and the potential contagion, and even though it is a month that will bring forward a new round of Staff Economic Projections, the nature of monetary policy being on a preset course otherwise means that the resulting impact on price action for the Euro should be minimal.
Beyond the ECB meeting, the calendar bears little of interest that will move the needle for the Euro in the coming days. Economic data in general hasn’t been inspiring as evidenced by the stability in readings around neutral in the Eurozone Citi Economic Surprise Index over the past week (from +1.4 to -3.9).
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EUR/USD Daily Price Forecast – EUR/USD Opens Bearish on Firm USD Supported by Employment Data

Friday’s upbeat payrolls and wage growth figure support USD on its bull momentum as trading session starts for the week.
The EUR/USD pair dropped further during Friday’s US session on the back of a stronger US dollar. It printed a fresh 2-day low at 1.1549 and bounced modestly to the upside. Near the end of the session was hovering around 1.1560, almost 90 pips below day’s highs. A stronger US dollar, particularly after the release of US employment data, pushed the pair to the downside. The NFP headline was slightly above expectations but the positive surprise came from acceleration in wage growth. It sent US yields to the upside adding more strength to the greenback. In immediate future, for EUR/USD, the path of least resistance is to the downside. The pair opened on bearish note for the week and has taken to steady downtrend movement. In early Asian market hours, the pair clocked a new intra-day low of 1.15395 and is currently trading at 1.1544 down by 0.07% on the day.
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Australian Dollar Gains On NAB Business Confidence, Jobs Data Next

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE SURVEY TALKING POINTS:
NAB’s business confidence survey was quite gloomy for August
The fall of former PM Malcolm Turnbull probably didn’t help, but confidence was notably weak
Still, the current conditions assessment was much better.The Australian Dollar managed to rise Tuesday, paring earlier losses as investors apparently chose to focus on the positives from an objectively mixed business survey.
Overall business confidence declined in August, according to the National Australia Bank’s roundup. Its index fell to 4, from a prior reading of 7. This was also the lowest reading since late 2016. However, firms’ assessment of business conditions rose, hitting 15 from a previous, upwardly revised 13.
A knock to confidence is hardly surprising given that a Prime Minister left office in August. Malcolm Turnbull was ousted over a lack of confidence in his leadership, adding to the considerable churn in Australia’s top political post. There have now been seven Prime Ministers in just over eleven years.
Still, NAB said that business was still performing strongly and that strong employment growth was likely in the months ahead. This optimism perhaps explains AUD/USD’s response.http://xtreamacademy.com/category/forex-news/
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