Daily Technical Analysis by XtreamForex

[xtreamforex.com]

BITCOIN – RECOVERS FROM SUB-$6,000 WOES, BUT MORE VOL TO COME

Bitcoin’s on the move as the Bulls recover from the shock of hitting sub-$6,000 levels, though market volatility is unlikely to abate any time soon.
Bitcoin fell by 0.99% on Tuesday, following on from Monday’s 0.99% fall, to end the day at $6,190.
While the day’s loss was a relatively minor one, it was a particularly choppy day, with Bitcoin sliding through the first major support level at $6,071.57 and second major support level at $5,899.23 to an intraday low $5,858.6.
Bitcoin managed to avoid striking a new swing lo, while the visit to sub-$6,000 levels was the first since a 29th June $5,780.
In spite of the broad based market sell-off and negative sentiment lingering in the wake of the SEC postponement to decisions on the future of a number of Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin managed to fund support to recover back through to $6,000 levels in the late morning, with a broad based market rally seeing Bitcoin test $6,200 ahead of the day’s end.
A start of a day $6,251.9 high left the day’s first major resistance level at $6,482.27 untested, with Bitcoin continuing to fall short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757, leaving the extended bearish trend, formed at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999, intact.
The sell-off seen in recent weeks that accelerated on Monday through Tuesday certainly had the feeling of a bubble bursting, with no real justification for an end to the slide other than speculative trading, with side lined investors likely to have been looking at valuations with the knowledge that the Bitcoin whales were unlikely to be jumping ship anytime soon.
Either way, the bulls stemmed the tide and, in spite of Bitcoin’s visit to sub-$6,000 levels, Bitcoin continued to hold on to its recent rise in dominance, currently sitting at 53.1%, the slide in the early hours of Tuesday having seen Bitcoin’s dominance rise to 54.62 before easing back, more material sell-offs across the other crypto majors supporting Bitcoin dominance with its less sizeable daily moves.
Read more:http://www.xtreamacademy.com/cryptocurrency-news

 

[xtreamforex.com]

GOLD PRICE PREDICTION – PRICES DROP SHARPLY BUT ARE NOW OVERSOLD

Gold prices tumbled again on Wednesday breaking down and headed toward target support near the December 2016 lows at 1,120. Resistance is seen near former support now resistance near 1,204. Stronger than expected retail sales helped buoy the dollar paving the way for lower gold prices. The dollar has been the beneficiary of the geopolitical unrest which first hammered the Turkish Lira but has spread to decline in the Indian Rupee and the Chinese Yuan. Momentum is negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). Prices are oversold. The relative strength index (RSI) which is a momentum oscillator is printing a reading of 21, well below the oversold trigger level of 30 which could foreshadow a correction. The RSI has hit a low of 20 twice in the past 3-years and in each instance prices rebounded.
Retail Sales Were Stronger than Expected
The U.S. Commerce Department reported that U.S. Retail Sales rose by 0.5% in July. Economists had forecast that headline retail sales would increase 0.1% Retail sales increased 6.4% from the prior July. Retail Sales was revised lower in June climbing by 0.2% in June compared to the previously reported 0.5%. Ex-autos and gasoline retail sales were up 0.5%.
Read more:http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-forecast

 

[xtreamforex.com]

CENTRAL BANK WEEKLY: US DOLLAR RALLIES DESPITE FED HIKE ODDS STAGNATING

Talking Points:
– The US Dollar surge over the past week has little to do with changes in market pricing of the Fed’s rate hike timeline.
– 25-bps hikes are being priced-in for September and December 2018, but then no rate move is anticipated until at least June 2019.
The US Dollar has been on a tear in August, with the DXY Index having gained +2.24% month-to-date. If today was the last day of the month, the DXY would be posting its second best month of 2018, and its best August since 2008 (+5.67%). Similarly, the greenback is in the midst of its fifth consecutive month of gains in a row. Needless to say, it’s been a favorable trading environment for the US Dollar.
Earlier this year, particularly between March and June, there is a strong case to be made that the US Dollar’s gains were largely driven by the market’s changing perception of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle. Even though the Fed, via its Summary of Economic Projections, had been outlining the path for three to four rate hikes in 2018, rates markets were only pricing in two hikes total this year back in March.
Fast forward to today, and two hikes have been realized, and two more are due in the coming months. But two more hikes through the end of the year have been priced in since the Fed’s June meeting: a week after the June meeting, markets were pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-bps hike in September; today, they’re pricing a 92% chance.It stands to reason, then, that while the US Dollar rally through August has been impressive, it hasn’t been for the typical reasons. There is good reason to believe that, without the US-China trade war or the Turkish Lira collapse, we wouldn’t be witnessing the form or fashion of US Dollar strength that has materialized thus far.
Ultimately, this leaves the US Dollar’s fundamental flank exposed moving forward. Without the Turkish Lira implosion and its speculative knock-on impact to the Euro – which is 57.6% of the DXY Index –the DXY breakout would not have materialized in the past week. With two hikes already priced in for the rest of the year, this may be ‘as good as it gets’ for the buck. The fundamental backdrop for the US Dollar is strong now, but it doesn’t seem like conditions can get any better.
Read more:http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news

 

[xtreamforex.com]

THE BITCOIN BULLS EYE $6,700 LEVELS TO TAKE SUB-$6,000 OUT OF PLAY

Bitcoin is on the move early and holding on to $6,300 levels would support a return to $6,600 levels later in the day, the markets settling.
Bitcoin gained 1.11% on Wednesday, reversing Tuesday’s 0.99% loss, to end the day at $6,258.
Tuesday’s late in the day upward moves continued into the early hours of Wednesday, with Bitcoin moving through the day’s first major resistance level at $6,341.73 to a morning high $6,483 before easing back.
Holding on to $6,200 levels through the middle part of the day and avoiding another visit to sub-$6,000 levels to test the day’s first major support level at $5,948.43, supported a break back through the first major resistance level at $6,341.73 and a break through the second major resistance level at $6,493.47 to an intraday high $6,647.6.
A late sell-off saw Bitcoin pullback to $6,200 levels by the day’s end, with investor fears of another sell-off seeing intraday gains locked in early, pinning back any major recovery as the market looks ahead to the SEC Bitcoin ETF decisions and the G20 rule and regs, which are the two key drivers for Bitcoin and the broader market near-term.
For the Bitcoin bulls, holding on to $6,200 levels through the day was key, though Bitcoin continued to fall short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757 needed to support the formation of a near-term bullish trend. The good news was Bitcoin’s break through to $6,600 levels, though Bitcoin will need to be taking a run at $6,700 levels in the coming days to avoid any sell-off.
On the news wires, there was nothing major to influence direction through the day, with Wednesday’s gain leaving Bitcoin with minor losses for the current week.
Following a number of weeks in the red, the minor losses in the current week will have the Bitcoin bulls looking to reverse the recent weekly downward trend.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 0.56% to $6,305.4, with Bitcoin recovering from a start of a day morning low $6,219.9, the early pullback having been a continuation of Wednesday’s late in the day reversal.
Moves through the early part of the day left the day’s major support and resistance levels untested, with Bitcoin managing to reverse early losses.
For the day ahead, a move through to $6,360 levels would support a run at $6,400 levels to bring the first major resistance level at $6,543.73 into play, though for Bitcoin to have a chance at breaking through to $6,500 levels, a hold at $6,300 levels through the morning is going to be needed.
Failure to hold on to $6,300 levels and take a run at $6,400 levels could see Bitcoin hit reverse later in the day, with any pullback to $6,200 levels bringing the first major support level at $6,076.13 into play, though we would expect Bitcoin to steer clear of major support levels and sub-$6,000 levels on the day, barring a material shift in sentiment.
Read more:http://www.xtreamacademy.com/cryptocurrency-news

 

[xtreamforex.com]

BITCOIN AND THE NEW NEMESIS AT $6,500

It’s been a positive start to the day, but with Bitcoin facing strong resistance at $6,500 once more, the path of least resistance may be downwards.
Bitcoin gained 1.44% on Sunday, partially reversing Saturday’s 3.08% fall, to end the day at $6,483.4.
An early pullback to an intraday low $6,309.3 saw Bitcoin steer clear of the first major support level at $6,249.03, with Bitcoin having found plenty of support at $6,300 through the weekend, a new line in the sand for the Bitcoin bulls looking to avoid another slide to sub-$6,000 levels.
A late rally saw Bitcoin hit an intraday high $6,550.3 before easing back to $6,400 levels by the day’s end. The late in the day high fell shy of the first major resistance level at $6,568.53 and more importantly, well-short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757, to leave the extended bearish trend firmly intact.
The moves through the weekend left Bitcoin up 2.68% for the week, bringing to an end a number of heavy weekly losses stemming from regulatory chatter from the South Korean government and the much talked about SEC postponements to approving or declining a number of Bitcoin ETFs.
For the Bitcoin bulls, failing to hold on to $6,500 levels remains the issue, with Bitcoin having managed to break through to $6,500 levels and beyond in 5 of the 7 days of last week, whilst failing to hold on to $6,500 levels by the close on each occasion except one, Friday’s $6,571.2 finish that came off the back of the broad based rally that saw Bitcoin gain 4.06%.
The continued resistance at $6,500 has left Bitcoin in a relatively tight range in recent sessions, which may well be a signal for a sizeable move, though direction will likely be more hinged on updates from the G20, regulators from key crypto jurisdictions and also news from the SEC on the status of Bitcoin ETF approvals.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 0.08% to $6,490, with Bitcoin moving through to an early morning $6,524 high before pulling back to sub-$6,500 levels, the moves through the morning leaving the major support and resistance levels untested as Bitcoin continues to struggle to break out from $6,500.
For the day ahead, a move back through the morning high $6,524 would support a run at the first major resistance level at $6,586.03 and $6,600 levels, though for Bitcoin to break out from $6,500 levels, sentiment across the broader market will need to improve, with a hold above $6,450 key through the morning.
Failure to hold above $6,450 and move back through to $6,500 levels could see Bitcoin take a hit later in the day, with any fall through $6,450 likely to bring the day’s first major support level at $6,345.03 into play before any recovery.
Through the weekend $6,300 support proved to be key for the Bitcoin bulls and we will expect this to continue through the early part of the week.
Read more:http://www.xtreamacademy.com/cryptocurrency-news

 

[xtreamforex.com]

GBP: BREXIT CONCERNS CONTINUE TO OUTWEIGH POSITIVE ECONOMIC DATA

STERLING (GBP) TALKING POINTS:
Positive UK data this week included four-decade low unemployment and an unexpected pick-up in retail sales.
Light UK data calendar next week leaves Sterling at the mercy of Brexit headlines.
We remain neutral on Sterling for the week ahead while acknowledging that Brexit headlines remains a binary risk that may move GBP sharply in either direction. Brexit talks are ongoing and, as we go to print, little news has come out of Brussels. The UK government recently announced that it will be releasing a series of no-deal Brexit papers over the next few weeks, covering over 80 areas of UK life, to highlight the potential disruptions in the event of the UK leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement. These papers are likely to see Brexit remain in the headlines, potentially weighing on the British Pound.
This week’s data releases showed the UK economy in a positive light with unemployment and retail sales the standouts. The ILO unemployment rate fell to a 1975 low of 4%, from a prior reading of 4.2%, while UK retail sales picked up by 3.7% year-on-year, beating expectations of +2.7%. All UK inflation data were in line with analyst’s expectations. Monetary policy is unlikely to change any time soon in response to better UK data releases with the next 0.25% interest rate hike not expected until at least mid-2019.
The DailyFX Economic Calendar for the next week contains no potentially UK market moving releases, while over in the US the latest FOMC minutes will be revealed on Wednesday, and should be studied by GBPUSDtraders, before a raft of global central banker’s meet for the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
GBPUSD has remained within a two-cent trading range this week and remains spellbound by EU-UK negotiations.
Read more:http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news

 

[xtreamforex.com]

Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Forecast – BTC Prices Continue Higher

The prices have been moving up in a slow and steady manner and now threaten to break through the range highs.
The BTC prices continued their slow and steady climb over the last 24 hours and the prices have just about sneaked above the $6800 region as of this writing giving more hope to the bulls. But the break higher has not been very convincing as yet as the move has been very slow and not the kind of move that we see that is associated with fast and strong breakouts. So we will have to wait and see how long this is going to last and whether this would be strong enough to continue higher in due course of time or whether the bears would return back in full force once again and push the prices back into range. This is going to be the action of interest in the short term. We had hinted at these kinds of moves in our forecast yesterday.

BTC Prices Pushing at Range Highs
We had said that the prices continue to look buoyant and though the bulls do not seem to be in control at this point of time, their force seems to be lying underneath and they have been doing a good job of keeping the prices well bid and ensuring that the prices do now fall through the floor. This is likely to benefit them in the long term as, if the prices do not have the space to fall, then the only direction for the prices would be to move higher. This is likely to be what we are seeing at this point of time.

The ETH prices have also moved higher but as usual, the pace at which they seem to be moving higher is much slower than the pace in the BTC market as the prices have been struggling to break through the $300 region over the last 24 hours. It is clear that many of the ICOs that had collected funds are now looking to cash in, in this market and this is ensuring that the ETH supply is large.
Get Into Cryptocurrency Trading Today
Forecast
Looking ahead to the rest of the day, it is going to be interesting to watch whether the move higher is going to hold for the short term or whether the prices are going to fall back lower in due course of time. If the move higher continues to hold, then that is likely to encourage more and more traders to begin buying with confidence and that is going to help to keep pushing the prices higher.
Read more:http://xtreamacademy.com/category/cryptocurrency-news

 

[xtreamforex.com]

Aussie, NZ Dollars at Risk if RBA and RBNZ Miss Rate Hike Boat

AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR TALKING POINTS:
Interest rates have been stuck at record lows in Australia and New Zealand for some time
Their central banks both suggest that the next move will be a rise
But will the global economy permit that?
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars both face one huge problem which has weighed them both down very heavily against their big US cousin this year.
But what can we expect when Federal Reserve has raised interest rates quite aggressively while the Reserve Banks of both Australia and New Zealand remain stuck? Rates in both Pacific countries remain at record lows and will remain there for some time yet. The Aussie and Kiwi Dollars once offered fat interest-rate premiums over the greenback. Now both yield less at base rate and that gap will surely widen further.
Australian futures markets now don’t see any increase at all until well beyond January 2020. Their New Zealand counterparts predict one in September 2019 at the very earliest.
GLOBAL RECOVERY IS ALREADY QUITE ADVANCED
But such forecasts can’t exist in a vacuum. Remember that the world has already seen an impressive run of post-crisis economic growth. The US economy has logged 17 straight quarters of economic expansion, and 26 with only a single quarter of contraction.
The S&P 500 index now crows atop an all-time record bull run. How much more can it possibly have to give? Is it rational to expect this charge to continue for the additional year and what more would it need to do before we supposedly get to Australian and New Zealand rate-hike time?
Given apparently endless trade spats, worries about the trajectory of Chinese growth and the simple fact that we’ve already had it quite good for quite a long time, can we really expect the global economy to still be firing by the time those interest rate rises are expected?
And, if it isn’t, are the central banks of Australia and New Zealand really going to hike into what could be a gathering economic storm?
That does not seem likely.
Read more:http://xtreamacademy.com/category/forex-news

 

[xtreamforex.com]

Bitcoin Bulls Eye $7,000 and a Bearish Trend Reversal

Bitcoin sees red early off the back of Monday’s gains as the bulls look for $7,000 levels to support a near-term bullish trend reversal.
Bitcoin gained 2.91% on Monday, following Sunday’s 0.52% loss, to end the day at $6,942.2, Bitcoin managing to bring to an end a sequence of 4 consecutive Monday losses.
A pullback to an early morning intraday low $6,652.7 steered clear of the first major support level at $6,573.87 supporting a move back through to $6,700 levels and a relatively range bound afternoon that left Bitcoin hovering at around the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757.
Late in the day, a broad based cryptomarket rally saw Bitcoin break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757, with Bitcoin breaking through the first major resistance level at $6,805.87 and second major resistance level at $6,931.43 to strike an intraday high $6,942.2 before easing back to $6,902 by the day’s end.
The late rally saw Bitcoin hold above the first major resistance level and more importantly, the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757 for the first time since 6th August, while resistance at $7,000 held Bitcoin back from more material gains on the day.
Supporting Bitcoin and the broader markets would have been the latest Bitcoin futures numbers from the U.S CFTC for the week ending 21st August, the latest report showing that short positions were on the decline, while long positions were on the rise, to provide the bulls with some much needed support. The balance remains firmly in favour of the bears however, in spite of last week’s shift, with short positions standing at 3,426 v long positions of 2,160.
Much will depend upon whether the SEC approves all or some of the Bitcoin ETFs from its current review of its latest series of rejections, though there will also be the G20 unified rules and regs to consider, which could be just what the SEC is waiting for that may ultimately lead to a rebalancing in favour of the bulls.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down just 0.18% to $6,896.8, with a choppy start to the day seeing Bitcoin pullback from an early morning high $6,963 to a morning low $6,872 before steadying, the moves through the early morning leaving the day’s major support and resistance levels untested.
For the day ahead, a hold above $6,832.3 would support a move back through the morning high $6,963 to bring $7,000 levels and the day’s first major resistance level at $7,011.9 into play, with resistance at $7,000 likely to pin Bitcoin back from a break out to $7,100 levels, the Bitcoin Bulls eyeing the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,376.
Failure to hold above $6,832.3 could see Bitcoin take a bigger hit later in the day, with sub-$6,800 levels and the day’s first major support level at $6,722.4 in play, though the news wires will need to deliver a blow to the Bitcoin bulls for Bitcoin to fall through to $6,700 levels, the beginnings of a near-term bullish trend forming off the back of Monday’s breakout from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757.http://xtreamacademy.com/category/cryptocurrency-news/
Read more:http://xtreamacademy.com/category/cryptocurrency-news/

 

[xtreamforex.com]

Gold Price Forecast – Gold markets continue to grind higher
Gold markets rallied significantly over the last couple of days, but the Tuesday session was a bit more tepid. However, we continue to grind higher, and I think we will go looking towards the $1225 level eventually. The market continues to be very resilient.
Gold markets continue to be very positive overall, grinding higher and towards the $1225 level. I believe that the market will probably continue to be somewhat resilient, but at this point I think we may need to take a bit of a breather as the $1225 level is a major round figure. There is a lot of attention at that level historically, so I think it’s only a matter of time before we will have some significant resistance. However, if we can clear that level, I think the market will then end up being very bullish and should continue to go even higher. The reality of the situation is that the market is probably paying more attention to the US dollar at this point than anything else, so if it continues to be somewhat tepid, that should help Gold markets overall. I think gold got a little oversold, but it wouldn’t take much to have people spooked right back into the greenback, and that of course could cause major issues. Overall, I believe that the attitude of gold should remain positive long term, but we will of course have major pullbacks as there is still plenty of fear out there just waiting to be launched.
The $1200 level continues to be psychologically important, so keep that in mind. If we were to break down below it, then I think that could accelerate the selling. If we break above the $1225 level, then I think the next target is probably $1250 after that.
Read more:https://www.xtreamacademy.com/category/forex-forecast/https://www.xtreamacademy.com/category/forex-forecast/