Daily Technical Analysis by XtreamForex

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NFP and Wage Growth Figures to Put the USD in the Spotlight

Consumer spending in both Australia and Japan improved but not by enough to shift sentiment as focus shifts to U.S labour market stats.
Earlier in the Day:
Economic data released through the Asian session this morning included August household spending figures out of Japan and August retail sales figures out of Australia.
For the Japanese Yen, August household spending impressed, with spending surging by 3.5%, month-on-month, coming in ahead of a forecasted 0.4% rise, whilst more than reversing July’s 1.1% slide. Year-on-year, spending jumped by 2.8%, which was better than a forecasted stall, following a 0.1% rise in July.
The year-on-year increase in spending was attributed to a rise in spending on:
Education (+25%); transportation & communication (+15.1%); medical care (+7.1%) and housing (+6.4%), with increased spending also seen on clothing & footwear and furniture & household utensils.
Dragging on spending, year-on-year, included a fall in spending on:
Culture & recreation (-4.1%); fuel, light & water charges (-1.8%) and food (-1.5%).
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥113.866 to ¥113.884 against the Dollar upon release of the figures, before easing to ¥114.01 at the time of writing, down 0.08% for the session.
For the Aussie Dollar, retail sales rose by 0.3% in August, which was in line with forecasts, whilst improving on July’s stall, according to figures released by the ABS.
5 of the 6 retail industries recorded a rise in sales, with cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.7%) leading the way.
A rise in sales was also reported for clothing, footwear & personal retailing (0.8%); other retailing (0.4%), department stores (0.9%) and household goods retailing (0.2%).
Food retailing was reported to be relatively unchanged.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.70680 to $0.70754 upon release of the figures, before rising to $0.7076 at the time of writing, flat for the session.
Elsewhere, the Kiwi Dollar continued to struggle, down 0.05% at $0.6476
In the equity markets, it was a mixed start to the day, the Nikkei and Hang Seng down 0.53% and by 0.1% respectively, weighed by the overnight losses in the U.S, while the ASX200 was up 0.3% to buck the trend early on, the big-4 banks finding support following the recent sell-off, .
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A Top Down Technical Look at Dollar, Euro, Yen and the Majors

TALKING POINTS:
Evaluating the general strength or weakness of individual currencies can open up more opportunities than specific pairs
A technical approximation of currency focus is to look at equally-weighted indices for major currencies for technical health
We look at concentrated charts of Dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen, Loonie, Aussie, Kiwi and Franc-specific charts.
FEED A TRADER A SINGLE TRADE VERSUS ESTABLISHING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
Doing a ‘top down analysis’ on an asset or market usually pertains to a global-macro overview on the fundamental side or is a technical trader’s equivalent by reviewing very high time frame (weekly, monthly) charts. However, there is more that can be drawn from the charts than just the reference to periods which are far broader than the vast majority of most traders’ tolerance. In the FX market, another approach to garnering an overview of what we are dealing with is to look at individual measures of specific currencies. Most of us comb the currency market by evaluating charts of individual exchange rates (such as the EURUSD, GBPUSD or USDJPY). That can happen across opportunities if we are diligent in our rotations, but it can be difficult to keep track in the absence of daily updates. A broader evaluation that can identify trades that we perhaps didn’t even consider is to keep track of the standings for individual currencies. If we knew for example that one of the core currencies was generally on the rise, we could then more efficiently run through its crosses to identify ideal pairings. If we consequently paired the strong currency to a particular weak one, it can establish appeal for a pair before the particulars are in place – preventing us from overlooking and forgetting an opportunity simply because the time isn’t right and technicals not perfectly aligned. So, how can we get this general appreciation of the individual currencies? We can evaluate all of its liquid crosses. Unless you can recall the chart structures from memory and aggregate them into a cohesive picture extemporaneously, it is better to utilize an rely on charts themselves. An equally-weighted index is one of my preferred means of such analysis.
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AUD/USD Extends Bullish Series Ahead RBA Financial Stability Review

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TALKING POINTS
AUD/USD is little changed despite the below-forecast print for the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), but recent price action raises the risk for larger rebound in the exchange rate as aussie-dollar extends the bullish sequence from earlier this week.AUD/USD EXTENDS BULLISH SERIES AHEAD RBA FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
Fresh developments coming out of the U.S. economy may do little to alter the near-term outlook for AUD/USD as updates to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are anticipated to show the headline reading for inflation slipping to 2.4% from 2.7% per annum in August, and another batch of lackluster data prints may fuel a larger rebound in aussie-dollar as it limits the Federal Reserve’s scope to extend the hiking-cycle.
Keep in mind, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on a preset course in 2018 as Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. are widely anticipated to deliver another 25bp rate-hike at the next quarterly meeting in December, and Fed officials may continue to prepare U.S. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as the central bank achieves its dual mandate for monetary policy.
However, the narrowing threat for above-target price growth may force the FOMC to soften its hawkish forward-guidance for monetary policy as ‘both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent,’ and Fed officials may continue to project a longer-run neutral rate of 2.75% to 3.00% especially as the shift in U.S. trade policy clouds the economic outlook.
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Bears Drag S&P 500 Below 200-Day Average, Risk Aversion Dangerously Broad

Talking Points:
Despite disparate performances Thursday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trade below their 200-day moving averages
The intensity of risk aversion across assets despends on their starting point, but there is no mistaking the risk aversion
While capital markets are sliding, the safe haven Dollar has dropped, Euro is ignoring Italian pressures and Pound eyes Brexit.
RISK AVERSION PERSISTS AND THE THREAT OF TREND GROWS
We have closed out a second day of unmistakable risk aversion for the broader financial markets. In the progression of reversing course from a decade-long bull trend, we have checked off yet another box. With fundamental measures of value long ago deteriorating underneath high-flying asset prices, the real speculative traction began some months ago when we started to register a divergence in the performance of the seemingly unflappable US equity indices and many other speculative assets (global equities, emerging market assets, junk bonds, carry trade, etc.) that were starting to take on water. When the S&P 500 and its peers started to sink these past few week, it would raise concern over a contagion that set the stage for concerted selling. That is what we are currently registering. While the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq 100 losses this past session were not as intense as Wednesday’ 3-4 percent tumble, they were nevertheless an unwelcome consistency of pain. The S&P 500 has slid below its 200-day moving average for the first time in months (only the second time since June 2016) and now all three stand at the cusp of overturning the leg of the long bull run that found traction after the US election. It is worth noting the disparity in performance between the likes of the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq.
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Risk Aversion Hits ahead of Italy’s Showdown in Brussels

Brexit jitters hit the Pound, with Italy’s budget delivery to the EU later today weighing on the EUR, as risk aversion returns to the markets.
Earlier in the Day:
Economic data scheduled for release through the latter part of the Asian session are on the lighter side this morning, with key stats limited to new loan growth numbers out of China and finalized August industrial production figures out of Japan.
Out of China, expectations are that September will see a rise in new loans, an easing in lending standards anticipated to offset the negative effects of the ongoing trade war between the U.S and China. While loan growth will be considered a positive, there will be some concern over any rise in China’s corporate debt levels, particularly following the IMF’s latest downward revision to economic growth forecasts.
For the Japanese Yen, industrial production is forecasted to rise by 0.7% in August, which would be in line with prelim figures, whilst reversing July’s 0.2% decline. We would expect the stats to have a muted effect on the Yen however, with market risk aversion at the start of the week overshadowing the numbers.
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up 0.12% to ¥112.08 against the U.S Dollar, risk aversion driving demand for the safe haven at the start of the week. Elsewhere, the shift in risk appetite left the Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Dollar in the red, the Aussie Dollar down 0.13% at $0.7105 and the Kiwi Dollar down 0.08% at $0.6502.
In the equity markets, the sell-off resumed in earnest, with the Nikkei and ASX200 sliding by 1.59% and by 1.07% respectively at the time of writing, with the Hang Seng and CSI300 down 1.15% and 0.82% respectively, the losses coming in spite of Friday’s gains in the U.S, with the U.S futures pointing to a return to the red.
Concerns over the state of the global economy weighed at the start of the week, with negative sentiment over the weekend influencing risk appetite through the session, an IMF-World Bank meeting over the weekend ending with a call for countries to be prepared for risks ahead, stemming from rising geo-political tensions and the ongoing trade war between the U.S and China.
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Global Stocks Bounce back, Gold Shines through Chaos

Most Asian shares recovered during early trade despite Wall Street suffering heavy losses overnight. In Europe, stocks continue to march higher on positive global cues which could support Wall Street later in the afternoon.
The brutal selloff that engulfed global stocks this week took a pause on Friday as risk sentiment slightly improved across financial markets.
Most Asian shares recovered during early trade despite Wall Street suffering heavy losses overnight. In Europe, stocks continue to march higher on positive global cues which could support Wall Street later in the afternoon. Although positive trade data from China and reports of U.S. President Donald Trump meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit next month has rekindled risk appetite, stock markets are not out of the woods yet.
Concerns revolving around escalating trade tensions, prospects of rising interest rates and global growth concerns remain a drag on global equity markets. With caution likely to heighten ahead of the earning’s seasons, the current stock market rebound could prove to be a mere dead-cat bounce.
Dollar Index wobbles above 95.00
It is thought-provoking how the Dollar has weakened to a monthly low against its major peers despite trade disputes and global growth fears promoting risk aversion.
President Trump’s repeated criticism of the Federal Reserve coupled with soft U.S. inflation data remains key drivers behind the Dollar’s depreciation. Although the Greenback still maintains its status as a safe-haven currency in times of uncertainty, further losses could be experienced in the short term. The potential downside is based on a technical breakdown below the 95.00 support level on the daily timeframe. A solid weekly close under this level has the potential to instill bears with enough confidence to attack 94.60 and 94.35, respectively.
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EUR/USD :Break over 1.16 stays slippery,disobedient Italy endorses expansionary financial arrangement policy

Italy-German yield differential might rise within the EUR negative manner,courtesy of Italy expansionary economics policy .The EUR/USD might feel pull of gravity because of Italy-German yield.Furthermore,the authority of Italy approved a draft budget low which is deficit and set to widen into 2.4% average on gross product .Moreover,The spread between Italy and German authority bond yield in 10 years which is slightly rising in five years and goes above 300 basis points.In a nutshell according to the Xtreamforex anticipation the EUR/USD is defensive at the point 1.1574 on trading having high clocked on 1.1592 on earlier today.
GBP/USD suffering to keep the path to 1.3200 with the United Kingdom income anticipated to decline
The GBP/USD price going near to the 1.3150 ahead according to the London market session for Tuesday. The Brexit plan going down on Monday and the continue going two sides to disagree on the plethora issues. The headache of Brexit pulling continue to the cable through this week .The European union leadership summit brexit outline especially ahead on Wednesday where a brexit proposed was initially slated.
USD/JPY bothered underneath 112 deals with while bears eye smash of vital help
USD/JPY is currently trading at 111.86, a couple of pips shy of the Asian session excessive and up from a low of 111.73.Meanwhile the investors nevertheless careful over the current inventory market the dollar has lost its safe -haven status over a number of variable which can be reasons to live pessimistic at the greenback’s near-time period in future .In the meantime ,the marketplace tone remains dominant as the marketplace participants don’t forget about the stability of risk in the aftermath closing week’s turbulence which keeps to favor the yen this safe haven status.
Gold sits above 100 days EMA for the primary time considering the fact since May 10
Gold closed above the 100-day EMA the day prior to this ,adding credence to bullish wreck of the 6-months lengthy falling trend line witnessed final week .Moreover the 100-day EMA goes 40 pips down from the last 10 hours and its dollar index remain going below 95.00 because of that .The trading price of yellow metal is $1,230 at price time and having clocked a three month strong of $1,236.90 yesterday .
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USD/JPY Fundamental Xtreamforex daily Forex forecast key price drives today-Risk appetite ,Economic news,Fed minutes

The USD/JPY dictate the direction of Fed minutes,Demand for risk,economic reports on early Wednesday.The latest fed minutes and slew of US economic data may also be helping to generate position-squaring ahead which is going to release tomorrow and it also generate some short covering activity.The safe-haven Japanese Yen reduced its gain up-to 0.42% on Tuesday.After release of strong quarterly results from some of the US marketplace recovers sell off from last week.According to to us one indispensable thing that traders don’t expect the rapid rise of US treasury yield in minutes it puts the negative impact on market.
Gold Price Forecast-Gold markets keep on pounding sideways on Tuesday with slight upward tilt
Gold markets keep on crushing sideways with a marginally upward tilt amid the day on Tuesday, as we keep on observing a ton of security exchange purchasing. The Gold markets have offered somewhat of a place of refuge as they have become uncommonly shoddy starting late, yet now we are a bit overextended.One thing that I can say in regards to this market is that we have gone sideways generally after a huge rally, and that is a decent sign as it looks prone to make dealers substantially more agreeable at these more elevated amounts rather than the standard pullback that you would get after a flood higher.
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Xtreamforex daily forex forecasts-S&P 500 pulls back to commence on Wednesday session

The S&P 500 pulled back at first amid on Wednesday session breaking beneath the 2800 level.That is in fact a territory of the intrigue ,yet I think we are now just anticipating the FOMC minutes .The S&P 500 has getting back efficiently pulled back and kickoff the Wednesday session and then we are start recognize the sign of life again which is goes near to the 2780 region.However,be that as it may in the FOMC meeting minutes .We will search for indications of where financing cost will go .Suppose if interest rates likely to continue to going up significantly ,that could be negative for stocks .
Natural gas price forecasts -Natural gas markets keep on pounding
Natural gas market kept on pounding amid the exchanging session on Wednesday ,as we keep on battling with these high levels .The markets has as of late been extremely bullish ,yet the most recent a few days have been more about absorption than whatever else .Natural gas markets keep on going sideways as we are attempting to process the increases that we had as of late observed .The colder temperature in US will keep on driving interest up in principle ,and normally this season we will see great deal of purchasing weight.
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Xtreamforex Daily Forex Forecasts -Gold hangs to gains

Gold markets broke out to the upside recently, and over the last couple of days we have simply grounds sideways overall and at this point I think what we are trying to do is reach the $1250 level above. That is massive resistance due to technical and psychological importance though.
Gold markets revitalized, breaking towards the $1225 level as of late, however from that point forward we have gone sideways. This is an extremely bullish sign however, on the grounds that it demonstrates to us that the market is open to clinging to the increases from the move a week ago. On the off chance that that is the situation, at that point it demonstrates genuine versatility and I think in the long run we will attempt to go to the $1250 level.The substitute situation would separate underneath the $1175 level, which would be extremely negative and could loosen up the gold market significantly further.
S&P Price Forecasts-Stock markets pulled back somewhat to commence Thursday
Stock markets fell a bit in the United States to commence the Thursday session, yet it looks as though they are finding a specific measure of purchasing weight underneath. Along these lines, it’s presumable that we could see somewhat of a rally after this ongoing merciless selloff.The S&P 500 has hinted at getting amid the exchanging session on Thursday, as the bullish flame from Tuesday still is by all accounts a territory where purchasers will come in and lift this market up. On the off chance that that is the situation, at that point I believe that we will keep on observing business sector members proceed to attempt and push towards the past uptrend line at the 2850 handle. On the off chance that we can wipe out the huge negative light from a week ago, that would be phenomenally bullish, and afterward we could keep on going higher. Now, I think the 2700 level underneath is the “floor” in the uptrend, so as long as we can remain above there, I believe it’s probable that we will keep on discovering purchasers on plunges.
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