Crypto Chat, News Cryptocurrency Market News and Events

[Rockfx]

Traders' return to leveraged positions creates the risk of new waves of liquidations in the leading cryptocurrency market, warned CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, who studied open interest dynamics on Binance. During the correction, the Bitcoin market experienced the sharpest reduction in leverage since 2023, Darkfost noted. Open interest on Binance fell below its 180-day average. He noted this reflects the strength and speed of the movement. The expert called the closing of positions that have become overly large a necessary phase of the correction. Despite this, open interest on the exchange remains elevated—$9.6 billion versus the 180-day average of $8.3 billion, or approximately 37% of the total for the leading cryptocurrency. Darkfost attributed the return of traders to support for the current rebound, but pointed out the downside of this dynamic: a market with excessive leverage sooner or later provokes new waves of forced position closures.

 

[Rockfx]

On September 8, Bitcoin continued to trade below $80,000 after several unsuccessful attempts to consolidate above this level. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency was worth around $78,380, down 1.3% in 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. However, market signals are diverging. US spot Bitcoin ETFs completed their third consecutive positive week, and realized market capitalization returned to growth. However, analysts are recording weak spot demand, and Glassnode data indicates a shift among large holders toward distribution. Positive signals also emerged in on-chain metrics. According to analysis by Axel Adler Jr., the 30-day change in Bitcoin's realized market capitalization returned to positive territory on August 24 for the first time after 87 days of negative values. By September 6, the indicator reached +0.88%. Realized market capitalization itself increased by $9.36 billion in 30 days, reaching $1.068 trillion. Realized market capitalization values each coin at its last blockchain price. Therefore, its growth reflects an increase in the total on-chain supply value, but does not directly imply $9.36 billion in new money entering the market.

 

[Rockfx]

The Central Bank of Iran has quietly relaxed currency restrictions and begun to allow the use of cryptocurrencies in foreign trade, the Financial Times reported, citing businessmen, government officials, and analysts. According to the publication, in recent months, the regulator has begun encouraging the return of foreign earnings "by any available means" as US sanctions and the military conflict have increased pressure on the country's financial system. "The central bank doesn't ask how the money was transferred. Receiving cryptocurrency as payment for exports has now become completely routine," a company executive close to the Iranian government told the FT. According to the FT, companies can now exchange currencies on a large open market instead of using government exchange rates, directly pay for imports with export earnings, and conduct some cross-border transactions through Iranian crypto exchanges.

 

[Rockfx]

To continue its growth, the leading cryptocurrency needs to break the $83,000-$86,000 resistance zone, where long-term holders (LTH) are concentrated and the estimated breakeven point for spot ETFs is located. This is the conclusion reached by Glassnode analysts. Around 1.07 million BTC were purchased within this range. The majority of purchases occurred at a price near $85,000. This volume has remained virtually unchanged over the past month. A return to this range will give holders the opportunity to sell their coins without a loss. Therefore, analysts view this as a potential source of pressure on the price. US exchange-traded funds are pegged to roughly the same levels: the estimated breakeven point for their assets is around $86,000. The rebound has already reduced the total paper loss from $18 billion in February to $3.9 billion, but has not yet fully compensated for it. However, proximity to the purchase price does not necessarily mean holders will begin selling en masse. Glassnode noted that long-term investors are currently taking less profit: their share of total realized gains has fallen from 88% at the August peak to 47%. If buyers succeed in pushing up the price of the leading cryptocurrency, liquidations of short positions could provide additional support. Between $82,000 and $86,000, there are concentrations of forced short-position closings, the estimated volume of which has increased by 21% since August 19. Liquidation will require repurchases and could accelerate the rally.

 

[Rockfx]

If the S&P 500 index suffers a prolonged 20% correction, the leading cryptocurrency will inevitably collapse to its long-term fulcrum around $10,000. Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone warned of this. In a new market update, he called Bitcoin a "stock market puppet" and announced three sell signals:
- the price rebound stalled at $76,746, failing to break the psychological barrier of $80,000;
- one-year Fed funds rate futures (FF13-FF1) are pricing in a 70 basis point hike, draining liquidity from speculative markets;
- the S&P 500 has moved critically far above its 200-week moving average, sharply increasing the risk of massive profit-taking by institutional investors.
McGlone emphasized that over the past five years, digital gold's returns have only matched those of the S&P 500, yet investors have absorbed nearly three times the volatility.
"From a risk and portfolio management perspective, this is a failure," the analyst emphasized.

 

[Rockfx]

Bankrupt Celsius entities have filed a lawsuit against five BitMEX-related companies, demanding compensation of 6,360.16 BTC or their current value (approximately $486 million at the time of writing). The defendants in the case include HDR Global Trading, ABS Global Trading, Shine Effort, 100x Holdings, and HDR Global Services. The plaintiffs allege that BitMEX improperly liquidated their positions during the market crash of March 2020. According to the documents, on March 12, 2020, the exchange forcibly closed Celsius's order with 1,325.84 BTC in collateral, and on March 13, it forcibly closed JST's position with 5,034.33 BTC. The latter amount was added to the bankrupt company's bankruptcy estate. According to the plaintiffs, BitMEX controlled the prices at which liquidations were triggered, the execution mechanism itself, and the insurance fund, which received a portion of the funds. The materials claim that some liquidation orders were placed more than 24% below the nearest best offer price on the platform. Celsius also cites the BitMEX outage that occurred on March 13. Following maintenance, liquidation platforms allegedly ceased, and the Bitcoin price recovered. The crypto exchange also reported two DDoS attacks.

 

[Rockfx]

A decline in demand for Bitcoin ETF hedging could provide stronger support for the asset than for gold, according to a JPMorgan report cited by The Block. The bank's analysts noted that after the Federal Reserve's meeting in late July, cryptocurrency and precious metal funds saw a simultaneous influx of funds. They attributed this trend to the return of debasement trading. However, after the US rate hike in September, this trend weakened. JPMorgan cited rising inflation-adjusted bond yields and the failure of the CLARITY Act as reasons for this.
According to the bank, gold ETFs have already recouped all of their outflows since the beginning of the year, while Bitcoin products have recouped approximately half of their losses.

 

[Rockfx]

Digital gold began the week near $77,000 amid market participants' anticipation of the Federal Reserve's rate decision. The US central bank did indeed begin tightening monetary policy, but Bitcoin responded with a ~1% gain rather than the expected decline. The decline to $75,000 occurred amid the Senate's failed procedural vote on the CLARITY Act. Experts attributed this to asset sales, primarily by American investors. However, on the night of September 18-19, Bitcoin quickly broke through to $81,000, gaining about 5% and dragging the entire market along with it.
By the end of the week, Bitcoin maintained its gains of more than 4.8% and consolidated above $80,000. Zcash (+32%), Hyperliquid (+17%), and Solana (+8%) demonstrated more significant gains.