-
Cryptocurrencies Under Pressure as Iran Strikes Stir Uncertainty
Cryptocurrencies are under pressure after US and Israeli attacks on Iran shook investor confidence over the weekend, leaving traders awaiting direction from traditional markets around the world.
Bitcoin traded erratically on Saturday after US-Israel strikes began early in the day. Prices initially slid, then firmed as rumors spread that Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed. After Iranian officials confirmed his death, Bitcoin briefly touched $68,196 before reversing to about $65,300 by 4 p.m. Sunday in New York, down 2.1%. Ether also gave up earlier gains to trade 2.3% weaker at $1,912.
Market Reactions
“The real price discovery happens Monday” when US equity markets and Bitcoin exchange-traded funds reopen, said Hayden Hughes, managing partner at Tokenize Capital. “With missiles hitting Dubai, Iranian retaliation across the Gulf, and Strait of Hormuz closure risk, this is not a contained event.”
Digital assets whipsawed as news of the joint US-Israel military campaign broke early Saturday. Bitcoin slid to about $63,000 before rebounding, while total crypto market value at one point shrank by roughly $128 Billion, according to CoinGecko.
Bitcoin ETF flows will be “the single most important number to watch” when markets reopen, Hughes said, pointing to $1 billion of inflows over three consecutive sessions last week. If that trend reverses, Bitcoin could break below $63,000, he added.
Roughly $1.9 billion of Bitcoin put options were concentrated at the $60,000 strike price on Deribit, signaling persistent demand for downside protection. Bitcoin has only touched $60,000 on one occasion this year, on Feb. 6. Its 200-week moving average price — regarded by some technical analysts as a key support level — is at around $58,000.
Following the attack, Iran launched counterstrikes on multiple locations — including Israel, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain — and threatened more against US-linked bases in Iraq.
Market Optimism
Some observers expressed optimism that crypto markets will look past the Iran turmoil, noting some traders are positioning for an extended recovery in prices.
“Traders generally don’t expect the Iran conflict to have major negative economic consequences, and demand for upside Bitcoin calls has clearly picked up in recent days,” said Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, adding that traders were also positioning themselves for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
Bitcoin call options were concentrated around $75,000, according to Deribit data.
The US attack was to a large extent factored in by traders who “used the weakness as a buy-the-dip or close-their-shorts opportunity,” said Richard Galvin, co-founder of the hedge fund Digital Asset Capital Management.
Bettors also cashed in on Polymarket, where $529 million in contracts were traded on the timing of a US strike on Iran.
This article has been published on bloomberg.com via Yahoo News.
