Crypto Chat, News Crypto Analysis by Radames Belford

[RadamesBelfort]

Hello Carigold community.

My name is Radames Belfort. I am a financial researcher based in São Paulo, with a background in institutional trading (BlackRock) and academic finance (NYU/UIUC). I have returned to Brazil to focus on the microstructure of digital asset markets.

The Current Setup (Dec 18, 2025)We are seeing a "Fear Index" of 17 today. Ethereum (ETH) has dropped to the ~$2,833 level. For many retail traders, the instinct is to "buy the dip." However, from an institutional perspective, we look at the plumbing of the trade, not just the chart.

The Hidden Cost: Funding RatesIn Forex, you worry about the Swap. In Crypto Perps, you worry about the Funding Rate.Today, we have a dangerous divergence. Bitcoin funding rates remain largely positive (longs paying shorts), while ETH funding rates are flipping neutral/negative.

What does this mean for your trade?It means the market is fractured. If you are long BTC, you are paying a premium to hold a position that is currently ranging. If you are short ETH, you are in a crowded trade where a "squeeze" could happen anytime.

Slippage WarningWith the VIX rising (volatility up ~6% yesterday), order book depth is thin. If you are trading large size today, use Limit Orders. Do not trust the Market Order button in this environment. The spread you see on the screen is not the price you will get filled at.

Trade safe, and respect the risk.

 

[RadamesBelfort]

Salam Carigold members. Radames Belfort here.

I want to do a quick post-mortem on the price action we saw over the last 48 hours. Many traders got trapped longing the breakout yesterday, and today they are underwater with BTC back at $87,200.

What went wrong?It comes down to Volume Profile.If you look at the 4H charts, the push to $89k happened on declining volume. In Market Microstructure, we call this a "Vacuum Up" move. The market moved up simply because there were no limit sell orders in the way—not because there was aggressive buying.

The ReversalToday (Dec 30), reality set in.

• Sentiment: 23 (Extreme Fear).
• USD/BRL: 5.57 (Defensive).

The market lacks the energy to sustain higher prices right now. The "Smart Money" has already closed their books for 2025. What you are seeing now is retail traders fighting algorithms.

My Strategy for Jan 1I am watching the Funding Rates. Until we see a reset where shorts are paying longs (negative funding), or a massive spike in volume, this range is dangerous.Don't force a trade on the second-to-last day of the year. Preserve your capital for the 2026 open.

Radames Belfort | Pesquisador Financeiro & Educador

Radames Belfort - Educador e pesquisador financeiro brasileiro especializado em precificação de ativos, microestrutura de mercado e mercados de criptoativos.

www.radamesbelfort.com