Bitcoin Is Bouncing: Here’s the Bull and Bear Case for Its Next Move
Bitcoin Is Bouncing: Here’s the Bull and Bear Case for Its Next Move
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, is at 19.5. ADX measures the strength of a trend on a scale of 0 to 100—it says nothing about direction, only conviction. Readings below 25 are typically classified as "no trend" territory. At 19.5, Bitcoin is firmly in that zone. There's movement, but no momentum. But this is actually not bad news for traders: Considering the coin is in a bearish trend, a low ADX means the crash is losing strength.
The RSI at 59.9 is the clearest positive signal on the dashboard. The Relative Strength Index measures buying momentum from 0 to 100. Below 30 is oversold; above 70 is overbought. At 59.9, Bitcoin is in bullish territory—above the neutral 50 line—without being stretched enough to trigger automatic selling by momentum traders. There's still room to run before the chart starts flashing red on the upside.
On Myriad, the prediction market built by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders are drawing a precise line for this Sunday. The market prices just 19% odds that Bitcoin clears $68,000 by July 26 at 4PM UTC. The $66,000 market is basically a coin flip, with traders leaning slightly bullish at 55%. Traders, at least right now, think the current range holds. That tracks with the low-ADX, squeeze-forming technical picture: something is coming, but maybe not by this weekend.
On the longer-term Bitcoin market on Myriad, the picture is still skeptical with traders pricing in 64.6% odds on a dump to $55K before a pump to $84K. That's a meaningful majority calling the bear case. It's consistent with the negative Coinbase Premium, the death cross still printing on the daily, and the weak ADX reading that says this rally hasn't earned conviction yet.
The bullish argument rests on three things: the 200 EMA held its support, RSI is above 50 with room to run, and the Clarity Act is closer to becoming law than at any point this year.
A favorable Senate vote could be the catalyst that finally breaks Bitcoin with enough momentum to trigger a short-liquidation cascade toward $70,000. Bernstein analysts still have a $150K year-end target in play, acknowledging the current level is "ambitious in context of the market correction" but maintaining the thesis.
The bearish argument has more technical weight right now. The death cross is still active. ADX at 19.5 means no real trend momentum is behind this bounce. Nine hundred-plus hours of negative Coinbase Premium signals institutions aren't accumulating. And the squeeze, statistically, may resolve in the direction of the prior trend—which is down.
This article has been published in decrypt.co via Yahoo News.
Bitcoin Is Bouncing: Here’s the Bull and Bear Case for Its Next Move
The good news: Bitcoin is holding onto key support, and rising. The bad news: a "death cross" is still active, and prediction markets are still overwhelmingly bearish.
finance.yahoo.com
