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One of the common presuppositional fallacies in the financial analysis industry is that the market has somehow incorrectly priced a particular security or commodity. Eventually, the argument goes, the market will recognize the correct price. Until then, there is an opportunity for investors to position themselves ahead of the move.
However, as well-meaning as the argument may be, the line of thinking runs into a major dilemma; essentially, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
To be fair, all arguments about the future carry a presupposition. However, what separates a reasonable forecast and a presuppositional fallacy is the nature of the assumptions. In the former situation, the assumptions are explicit, bounded and...