PRU dan Prestasi Pasaran Saham
Tuesday July 3, 2012
Timing of election crucial for performance of the local market, say analysts
By THOMAS HUONG
[email protected]
PETALING JAYA: The timing of the general election will be crucial in determining the performance of the local bourse in the second half of the year, according to research analysts.
TA Securities Holdings research head Kaladher Govindan believes there are
two scenarios for the local bourse, based on when Malaysians will wield the vote.
“We think the
current bullish sentiment on the local bourse is a pre-election rally. So, if the general election is held this year, our year-end target for the FBM KLCI is 1,520 points. However, if the election is held next year, our year-end target for the FBM KLCI is 1,680 points as the index-linked stocks should perform well due to factors such as more roll-outs of projects under the Economic Transformation Prog-ramme,” he told StarBiz.
Kaladher said
external factors that investors would be monitoring closely in the second half would be the
eurozone sovereign debt crisis, economic data in the United States and China, as well as the tensions between Iran and Western superpowers.
ECM Libra Capital head of research Leong Hon Sze concurred, saying the research unit's year-end target for the FBM KLCI was 1,604 points (plus or minus 1.6%).
“But if the general election is called and Parliament is dissolved, there should be a market correction towards 1,487 points,” he said.
Meanwhile, Hwang Investment Management Bhd chief investment officer David Ng said the local bourse had bucked global and regional trends due to its perceived defensive nature.
“The (current) buoyant mood was due to the exuberance of Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd and Gas Malaysia Bhd's initial public offerings, which were very well received by the markets,” said Ng.
Ng expects volatility to persist in the second half, as the FBM KLCI also takes its cue from the global front.
“That means news flows from the eurozone, economic data from the United States and growth numbers in China will continue to drive the market. Investor will also remain cautious until our 13th general election is over.”
Ng said in the immediate term, the positive outcome from the European Union summit over the weekend had provided much respite to global markets.
“Germany finally relaxed its stance to support debt mutualisation in the form of allowing the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to fund bank recapitalisation and to buy sovereign bonds. This provides some hope in the market for now, but how sustainable the new-found euphoria surrounding this remains to be seen as the agreement is still very high level and lacking in details. A point to note is, ESM is still a work-in-progress project.”
According to Ng, the year-end range for the FBM KLCI should not drift too far from the current level of 1,600 points.
Key Asian financial markets saw mixed fortunes yesterday, as stronger-than-expected economic indicators emerged in China, and investors bank on European governments to take further steps to contain the eurozone crisis.
Official data in China indicated that the country's manufacturing sector was still expanding, albeit at a slower pace, with the purchasing managers index (PMI) eased to 50.2 in June from 50.4 in May.
However, a PMI report by HSBC for China said the country's manufacturing sector had contracted for the eighth consecutive month in June, on weaker external demand.
p/s: ada tanda2 yg suruh JUAL krn PRU akan dipanggil bila2 masa shj. Tapi kalu PRU buat tahun depan, indeks pasaran akan meningkat sedikit hingga ke hujung tahun, penanda JUAL pada hujung tahun..