USD/JPY Outlook (P&F chart)

[MDunleavy]

As discussed before, rebound from 90.12 should have completed at 92.52 and fall from 97.77 is likely resuming.Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment for 90.12 low first. Break will target lower channel support at 89.56 next. On the upside, in case of another rise, we'd continue to expect recovery to be limited by 93.29 resistance and bring fall resumption . However, decisive break of 93.29 will indicate that whole fall from 97.77 has completed and will turn focus back to upper channel resistance (now at 96.46).[actionforex]

"P&F USDJPY30 Box Size 230X3 or(0.74%) HI/LO
Data 97.036 - 90.121 ~ 1.5 Month ~ 43.5 Day
Database 1501 records 91.267 (Last Close)
2009-08-11 01~00
2009-09-23 13~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group"

97.06|~23|||______________________________________________|-0.02%|7.7%
96.83|~46|||__o___________________________________________|0.21%|7.44%
96.60|~69|||__o_x_________________________________________|0.45%|7.19%
96.37|~92|||__o_x_o_______________________________________|0.69%|6.93%
96.14|~115||__o_x_o_______________________________________|0.92%|6.68%
95.91|~138||__o_x_o_______________________________________|1.16%|6.42%
95.68|~161||__o_x_o_______________________________________|1.4%|6.17%
95.45|~184||__o_x_o_______________________________________|1.63%|5.91%
95.22|~2O7||__o___o_x_____________________________________|1.87%|5.66%
94.99|~23O||______o_x_o_____x_____________________________|2.11%|5.4%
94.76|~253||______o_x_o_____x_o___________________________|2.35%|5.15%
94.53|~276||______o_x_o_x___x_o_x_________________________|2.58%|4.89%
94.30|~299||______o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_______________________|2.82%|4.64%
94.07|~322||__________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_______________________|3.06%|4.38%
93.84|~345||__________o___o_x_o___o_______________________|3.29%|4.13%
93.61|~368||______________o_______o_______________________|3.53%|3.87%
93.38|~391||______________________o_x_____________________|3.77%|3.62%
93.15|~414||______________________o_x_o_x_________________|4%|3.36%
92.92|~437||______________________o_x_o_x_o_______________|4.24%|3.11%
92.69|~46O||______________________o___o_x_o_______________|4.48%|2.85%
92.46|~483||__________________________o_x_o_________x_____|4.72%|2.6%
92.23|~5O6||__________________________o_x_o_________x_o___|4.95%|2.34%
92.00|~529||__________________________o___o_________x_o___|5.19%|2.08%
91.77|~552||______________________________o_________x_o___|5.43%|1.83%
91.54|~575||______________________________o_x_______x_o___|5.66%|1.57%
91.31|~598||______________________________o_x_o_x___x_o_x_|5.9%|1.32%
91.08|~621||______________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|6.14%|1.06%
90.85|~644||______________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|6.37%|0.81%
90.62|~667||______________________________o_x_o_x_o___o___|6.61%|0.55%
90.39|~69O||______________________________o___o_x_________|6.85%|0.3%
90.16|~713||__________________________________o___________|7.09%|0.04%
89.93|~736||______________________________________________|7.32%|-0.21%
Column|||0|||_8_6_104_6_3_4_6_5_3_8_3_6_5_125_6_5_3_8_8_3_|
Count

 

[MDunleavy]

Since April, the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) has steadily lost value against the Japanese yen (JPY). Across the Asia Pacific, the USD/JPY cross rate remains a key barometer of a two-way play of global economic fundamentals and risk aversion.

This barometer has experienced many high and low points in the last 26 months. In June 2007, the USD/JPY traded a five-year high of 124.16 to the USD. As far as the fundamentals were concerned, that five-year high was more about a weaker yen, than a stronger U.S. dollar. Over these 26 months, through better and worse, USD/JPY has declined as the yen has appreciated 25 percent against the U.S. dollar.

This 25 percent decline in USD/JPY is illustrated in Chart 1, with the initial change of trend signal appearing soon after the USD/JPY five-year high in June 2007. The red line over the price bars illustrate the MACD predictor (referred to as DiNapoliMP or “DiNapoli MACD predictor”). The regular DiNapoli MACD is shown at the bottom the chart.

The mechanics of the predictor are relatively simple. As shown in the chart when the price of USD/JPY fell below the red line on the price axis (MACD predictor), the corresponding trend as shown on the regular DiNapoli MACD is bearish (the MACD line is below the blue MACD signal line). The advantage of the MACD predictor is it gives a specific point reading on the price axis when the trend on the regular MACD is turning up or down ahead of market action. That price point for mid 2007 was a close below 118.60 for a confirmed bearish trend.



Excel_USDJPY_31 EYARS

 

[MDunleavy]

USD/JPY closed higher due to loss taking on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing would temper the near-term friendly outlook.[Written by HY Markets]

"P&F USDJPY1440 Box Size 130X4 or(4.93%) HI/LO
Data 125.94 - 84.819 ~ 92 Month ~ 2800 Day
Database 2000 records 90.285 (Last Close)
2002-05-28 00~00
2010-01-26 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

126.10|~13O||________________________________|-0.13%|48.67%
124.80|~26O||oXoX____________________________|0.91%|47.14%
123.50|~39O||oXoXo________X__________________|1.94%|45.6%
122.20|~52O||oXoXo________Xo_________________|2.97%|44.07%
120.90|~65O||oXoXo____X_X_Xo_________________|4%|42.54%
119.60|~78O||oXo_o____XoXoXo_________________|5.03%|41.01%
118.30|~91O||oX__o____XoXoXo_________________|6.07%|39.47%
117.00|~1O4O|oX__o____XoXoXoX________________|7.1%|37.94%
115.70|~117O|o___o____XoXo_oXo_______________|8.13%|36.41%
114.40|~13OO|____o__X_XoX__oXoX______________|9.16%|34.88%
113.10|~143O|____o__XoXoX__oXoXo_____________|10.2%|33.34%
111.80|~156O|____oX_XoXoX__o_oXo_____________|11.23%|31.81%
110.50|~169O|____oXoXoXoX____oXoX____________|12.26%|30.28%
109.20|~182O|____oXoXoXo_____oXoXo___________|13.29%|28.74%
107.90|~195O|____oXoXoX______o_oXo___________|14.32%|27.21%
106.60|~2O8O|____oXoXoX________oXo___________|15.36%|25.68%
105.30|~221O|____o_oXoX________oXo___________|16.39%|24.15%
104.00|~234O|______o_oX________oXo___________|17.42%|22.61%
102.70|~247O|________o_________oXo___________|18.45%|21.08%
101.40|~26OO|__________________oXo______X____|19.49%|19.55%
100.10|~273O|__________________oXoX_____Xo___|20.52%|18.02%
98.80|~286O||__________________oXoXo__X_Xo___|21.55%|16.48%
97.50|~299O||__________________oXoXo__XoXoX__|22.58%|14.95%
96.20|~312O||__________________o_oXo__XoXoXo_|23.61%|13.42%
94.90|~325O||____________________oXo__XoXoXo_|24.65%|11.89%
93.60|~338O||====================oXoX=Xo=oXoX|25.68%|10.35%
92.30|~351O||____________________oXoXoX__o_oX|26.71%|8.82%
91.00|~364O||____________________o_oXoX____oX|27.74%|7.29%
89.70|~377O||______________________oXoX____oX|28.78%|5.75%
88.40|~39OO||______________________o_o_____oX|29.81%|4.22%
87.10|~4O3O||______________________________oX|30.84%|2.69%
85.80|~416O||==============================o=|31.87%|1.16%
84.50|~429O||________________________________|32.9%|-0.38%
Column|~442O|87541568919946947511179448467496|
Count||||||||____5____4________415___________|




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

 

[zamdr]

currently sideway market. hari ni saja bouncing 80 pip. flag pattern dekat TF 15m , possible bearish breakout....

 

[MDunleavy]

The USDJPY has soared since yesterday’s low…over 200 pips. The rally has reached the 50% retracement of the decline from 9217. This level is reinforced by a congestion zone. After seeing steady gains throughout the week, the Yen was battered following a better than expected U.S. Non-farm payroll report. USD/JPY soared over 200 pips to erase of all of the week’s losses for the pair which had diverged from rising equity markets prior to the move.

"P&F USDJPY1440 Box Size 135X4 or(5.13%) HI/LO
Data 125.75 - 84.819 ~ 92 Month ~ 2800 Day
Database 2000 records 90.27 (Last Close)
2002-07-05 00~00
2010-03-05 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

125.55|~135||_X_X__________________________|0.16%|48.02%
124.20|~27O||_XoXo_________________________|1.23%|46.43%
122.85|~4O5||_XoXo________X________________|2.31%|44.84%
121.50|~54O||_XoXo______X_Xo_______________|3.38%|43.25%
120.15|~675||_Xo_o____X_XoXo_______________|4.45%|41.65%
118.80|~81O||oX__o____XoXoXo_______________|5.53%|40.06%
117.45|~945||oX__o____XoXoXoX______________|6.6%|38.47%
116.10|~1O8O|o___o____XoXo_oXo_____________|7.67%|36.88%
114.75|~1215|____o__X_XoX__oXoX____________|8.75%|35.29%
113.40|~135O|____o__XoXoX__oXoXo___________|9.82%|33.7%
112.05|~1485|____oX_XoXoX__o_oXo___________|10.89%|32.1%
110.70|~162O|____oXoXoXoX____oXo___________|11.97%|30.51%
109.35|~1755|____oXoXoXo_____oXoX__________|13.04%|28.92%
108.00|~189O|____oXoXoX______o_oXo_________|14.12%|27.33%
106.65|~2O25|____oXoXoX________oXo_________|15.19%|25.74%
105.30|~216O|____o_oXoX________oXo_________|16.26%|24.15%
103.95|~2295|______o_oX________oXo_________|17.34%|22.56%
102.60|~243O|________o_________oXo_________|18.41%|20.96%
101.25|~2565|__________________oXo____X____|19.48%|19.37%
99.90|~27OO||__________________oXoX___Xo___|20.56%|17.78%
98.55|~2835||__________________oXoXo__Xo___|21.63%|16.19%
97.20|~297O||__________________oXoXo__XoX__|22.7%|14.6%
95.85|~31O5||__________________o_oXo__XoXo_|23.78%|13.01%
94.50|~324O||____________________oXoX_XoXo_|24.85%|11.41%
93.15|~3375||____________________oXoXoXoXoX|25.92%|9.82%
91.80|~351O||____________________o_oXoXo_oX|27%|8.23%
90.45|~3645||______________________oXoX__oX|28.07%|6.64%
89.10|~378O||______________________oXoX__oX|29.15%|5.05%
87.75|~3915||______________________o_o___oX|30.22%|3.46%
86.40|~4O5O||____________________________oX|31.29%|1.86%
85.05|~4185||____________________________o_|32.37%|0.27%
83.70|~432O||______________________________|33.44%|-1.32%
Column|||||||374415689189458475111695517496|
Count||||||||____5____3________4O3____O____|




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

 

[wayne0825]

thanks for it

 

[MDunleavy]

USDJPY is currently trading 94.70 levels. A break above 94.30(2 days close), we could target 97-98 levels. Weekly close above 92 levels has increased chances for a bearish move for the yen currency. Importers hold for medium term covers. (USDJPY- 94.70). Long Term (3-6 months) target 98 and higher.We just need a conistent break of 94.30 to make thes happen.

"P&F USDJPY1440 Box Size 140X4 or(5.32%) HI/LO
Data 125.75 - 84.819 ~ 92 Month ~ 2800 Day
Database 2000 records 94.26 (Last Close)
2002-09-04 00~00
2010-05-05 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

 

[MDunleavy]

The Yen opened the last week, on a weak note following an emergency meeting of the Bank of Japan, that announced more liquidity measures. Also the government said that it was planning more stimulus for the economy. A few hours after the Yen not only recovered lost ground but was testing 15-year lows.
Despite improvement in market sentiment and rising government bond yields as the week went by, the USD/JPY did not rise and moved in ranges below 84.60
On Friday, after the NFP report, the pair jumped to 85.20 but reversed sharply and pulled back to 84.20 to finish the week below 84.50.
The dollar broke through primary support at 85.00 and is headed for a test of support at the 1995 low of 80.00 The Bank of Japan threatens to intervene to prevent further appreciation, but there are doubts about the political will to do so. Recovery above 88.00 is unlikely at this stage, but would warn that the down-trend is weakening.
I believe that we can consider the possibility of opening long positions. Details on the chart.

"P&F USDJPY1 Box Size 10X3 or(0.35%) HI/LO
Data 85.894 - 83.666 ~ 0.31 Month ~ 9.02 Day
Database 12000 records 84.297 (Last Close)
2010-08-25 22~24
2010-09-03 22~59 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

85.90|~1O|||______+_______________________|-0.01%|2.67%
85.80|~2O|||______x_o_____________________|0.11%|2.55%
85.70|~3O|||______x_o_+___________________|0.23%|2.43%
85.60|~4O|||______x_o___+_________________|0.34%|2.31%
85.50|~5O|||______x_o_____+_______________|0.46%|2.19%
85.40|~6O|||______x_o_______+_____________|0.58%|2.07%
85.30|~7O|||______x_o_________+_______+___|0.69%|1.95%
85.20|~8O|||______x_o___________+_____x_+_|0.81%|1.83%
85.10|~9O|||______x_o_____________+___x_o_|0.92%|1.71%
85.00|~1OO||__x___x_o_______________+_x_o_|1.04%|1.59%
84.90|~11O||__x_o_x_o_________________x_o_|1.16%|1.47%
84.80|~12O||o_x_o_x_o_________________x_o_|1.27%|1.36%
84.70|~13O||o_x_o_x_o_________________x_o_|1.39%|1.24%
84.60|~14O||o_x_o_x_o_____________x___x_o_|1.51%|1.12%
84.50|~15O||o_x_o___o_x___x___x___x_o_x_o_|1.62%|1%
84.40|~16O||o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|1.74%|0.88%
84.30|~17O||o_______o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|1.86%|0.76%
84.20|~18O||________o_x_o___o_x_o_x_o_x___|1.97%|0.64%
84.10|~19O||________o_______o_x_o_x_o_x___|2.09%|0.52%
84.00|~2OO||________________o_x_o_x_o___+_|2.21%|0.4%
83.90|~21O||________________o___o_x___+___|2.32%|0.28%
83.80|~22O||____________________o_x_+_____|2.44%|0.16%
83.70|~23O||____________________o_+_______|2.55%|0.04%
83.60|~24O||____________________+_________|2.67%|-0.08%
Column||||||6_7_5_1_1_4_3_3_6_6_8_9_6_1_9_|
Count|||||||______3_8_________________2___|

BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.