US Sanctions Target Iran Crypto as Bearish Bitcoin and XRP Forecasts Resurface
US Sanctions Target Iran Crypto as Bearish Bitcoin and XRP Forecasts Resurface
Bessent said businesses involved in converting Iranian oil into usable revenue would face enforcement, declaring that "no one is above the reach of US sanctions," according to Al Jazeera.
The campaign comes almost six months into the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. Iran has also disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy shipments. Meanwhile, Tehran has threatened further retaliation against countries that participate in Washington's economic campaign.
What Could the Iran Sanctions Mean for Crypto?
The most immediate effect on crypto is likely to be tighter compliance. Centralized exchanges could intensify wallet screening and restrict accounts connected to newly sanctioned entities. Crypto companies with access to the US market may also avoid counterparties that cannot clearly demonstrate the origin of their funds.
The more significant threat to Bitcoin, XRP, and other crypto may come through global markets. If the campaign restricts Iranian oil exports or triggers further disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, higher energy prices could add to inflation. Persistent inflation could then reduce the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, keeping borrowing costs and bond yields elevated. That combination has historically created a difficult environment for crypto and speculative assets. A stronger dollar could also weigh on crypto prices, while renewed geopolitical fear could push investors toward cash, government bonds, or gold. However, none of those outcomes is guaranteed.
Could Bitcoin Still Fall to $30,000?
Benjamin Cowen remains open to another significant Bitcoin decline, despite the token's sharp recovery from its July low. In a YouTube video published on Friday, Aug. 21, Cowen said Bitcoin's recent surge had produced conflicting signals over whether the bear-market bottom was already in. The analyst said his strategy was to gradually accumulate Bitcoin in the second half of the midterm year whenever his proprietary risk indicator fell below 0.3. That threshold was reached for approximately five days around late June and early July, allowing him to begin buying.
However, Cowen said he had not yet accumulated as much Bitcoin as he would want ahead of another multi-year bull market. His continued caution is based in part on Bitcoin's historical performance during US midterm election years. Cowen compared the latest recovery with rallies in 2018, 2019, and 2022 that initially appeared to mark the end of a bear market but were later followed by renewed declines.
The analyst said the current breakout could still prove bullish, particularly if Bitcoin holds above its 200-day moving average during its next pullback. If BTC remains above that level for another two weeks, he said the probability that July marked the final bottom would increase considerably. The analyst also said he would turn bullish and add to his Bitcoin position if another decline fails to materialize before the end of the year. The analyst previously estimated that Bitcoin could find its eventual cycle low somewhere between $30,000 and $40,000. A fall from approximately $79,000 to $30,000 would erase around 62% of Bitcoin's value. Meanwhile, a decline to $40,000 would represent a drop of roughly 49%.
Could XRP Price Collapse to $0.18?
Anthony Di Pizio raised an even more extreme downside scenario for XRP in an Aug. 13 analysis. His argument was based partly on XRP's previous boom-and-bust cycle. XRP reached $3.65 last year before losing approximately 72% of its value. Di Pizio compared that decline with the aftermath of XRP's previous record high in 2018. By mid-2020, the token had surrendered roughly 95% of its peak value and subsequently remained below $1 until November 2024. Applying another 95% decline to XRP's latest $3.65 peak would put the token at approximately $0.18.
Di Pizio said he was "not suggesting that will happen," but described XRP's recent move below $1 as a warning that further losses remained possible. While there is no direct connection between the Iran sanctions and XRP, the token could suffer alongside the broader market if geopolitical tensions drain liquidity from altcoins.
This article has been published in ccn.com via Yahoo News.
US Sanctions Target Iran Crypto as Bearish Bitcoin and XRP Forecasts Resurface
The US has expanded its authority to sanction foreign people and businesses operating in or supporting Iran’s digital-asset sector. The measures do not sanction Bitcoin, ...
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