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Bitcoin (BTC) could climb to $240,000 over the long term, according to a recent JPMorgan note assessing the asset’s evolving market structure.
The projection followed a weak stretch for the broader crypto market, with BTC falling from its early October peak of $126,000 to around $82,000 in November.
At the time of writing, BTC had stabilized near $86,610.
Crypto 'behaving like a macro asset,' JPMorgan says
In the note, analysts wrote that crypto markets are now influenced more by macroeconomic forces than by Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle, which historically preceded major bull runs.
The analysts added that early-stage projects once relied on large private rounds that left retail investors buying late at steep valuations.
Retail participation has since declined, they said, and institutional investors now provide market depth, helping stabilize flows and potentially anchoring long-term prices.
One speaker at the bank’s event suggested BTC could “potentially reach $240K over the long term,” framing Bitcoin as a multi-year growth play rather than a cyclical asset.
Despite the structural shift, JPMorgan argued that cryptocurrencies still offer “liquid yet structurally inefficient” markets where uneven liquidity can result in sharp price swings.
More News: JPMorgan unveils Bitcoin-linked structured note
JPMorgan also filed a new structured product tied to BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT). According to the filing, the note gives investors the possibility of “uncapped” upside through 2028 if BTC rallies sharply.
Here is how it works:
JPMorgan warned in its risk disclosure that the notes “do not guarantee any return of principal.” If the note is not called early and the ETF’s final value falls below the barrier, “you will lose 1% of the principal amount of your notes for every 1% that the Final Value is less than the Initial Value.”
Under certain outcomes, the bank said, investors “could lose all of your principal amount at maturity.”
Related: MSCI delisting shock erases 45% of crypto-treasury value
JPMorgan faces backlash over MSCI-linked analysis
The bank also faced criticism this week after a research note circulated containing analysis related to Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI).
The index provider is considering whether to exclude companies that hold more than 50% of their balance sheet in crypto assets.
One firm potentially affected is the leading Bitcoin treasury company called MicroStrategy, now Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), which holds 649,870 BTC. The note estimated that the company could face up to $2.8 billion in outflows if removed from MSCI indices, and as much as $8.8 billion if other index providers adopt similar rules.
The controversy escalated after Strike CEO Jack Mallers said the bank closed his personal accounts in September, citing “concerning activity” and the Bank Secrecy Act. Mallers publicly accused the bank of unfair targeting.
Bitcoin supporters reacted sharply, with several prominent users calling for a boycott of JPMorgan.
This article has been published in TheStreet via Yahoo News.
