Is the Bitcoin bottom in? Key levels to watch after summer drop
Investing.com -- Bitcoin at $63,516 is a world away from its $126,110 52-week high — a -49.6% peak-to-trough drawdown — but the more telling story is the bounce from sub-$58,000 earlier this month. Whether that low holds is the question every crypto trader is wrestling with right now, especially with the Fed decision landing tomorrow, Jul 29.
The Damage Done
Bitcoin (BTC/USD): $63,516 (-2.66% today) || 52W Range: $57,803 – $126,110 || 1M: +6.62% || 3M: -16.86% || YTD: -27.59%
The summer selloff was deep — Bitcoin shed roughly half its value from the January peak. The bounce off the $57,803 low represents a ~10% recovery, but today’s renewed selling pressure (-2.66%) is a reminder the recovery is still fragile.
Technical Signals: Mixed at Best
The indicators tell a conflicted story:
Two things stand out: the weekly RSI at 38.1 is approaching oversold territory (below 30 = classic capitulation zone) — historically a region where Bitcoin has found bottoms. But the weekly MACD is still negative, meaning the longer-term trend has not confirmed a reversal. The recent candlestick patterns show a Morning Doji Star (high confidence, May 30) and Bullish Doji Stars on the daily chart — tentatively constructive — but also a fresh bearish Advance Block on the weekly (Jul 20).
The Bull Case: Final Innings?
U.S. Tiger Securities analysts recently stated they believe the "crypto bear market has likely entered its final quartile" Read more. Corroborating that view:
The Bear Case: Not So Fast
Today’s crypto-wide selloff tells a cautionary tale — it’s not just Bitcoin:
A synchronized selloff like this suggests macro risk-off, not crypto-specific positioning. The Fed decision tomorrow (Jul 29) — with 75-80% probability of no cut at 3.5–3.75% — is creating pre-event uncertainty. Add in mining centralization concerns (4 pools control 70%+ of hashrate) and BIP-110 governance friction, and the near-term picture stays cloudy.
The Verdict
The $57,803 low is the number that matters most. A successful retest and hold of that level would technically confirm a "higher low" and give the bottom thesis real credibility. Until BTC reclaims the $65,000–$66,500 resistance zone (the 1-week pivot sits at $65,054), the bounce remains a recovery attempt, not a confirmed bottom. Tomorrow’s Fed tone could be the catalyst in either direction.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
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