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  #751  
Old 16-05-2018, 05:12 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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USD/JPY analysis for May 16, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 110.48. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a broken resistance trendline and bullish flag in creation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities if you see a valid breakout of the bullish flag. The upward target is set at the price of 111.40.


Resistance levels: R1: 110.62 R2: 110.93 R3: 111.41

Support levels: S1: 109.83 S2: 109.35 S3: 109.05

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.
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  #752  
Old 16-05-2018, 05:38 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Technical analysis on USD/JPY for May 16, 2018

The USD/JPY pair made a new higher high yesterday but the Daily RSI does not confirm it. This is a first sign of a bearish divergence in the Daily chart. Price remains in a bullish uptrend, but any break below 109.40 will confirm a trend change to bearish.


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Red lines - bearish divergence

Blue line - support trend line

The USD/JPY pair continues to make higher highs and higher lows. Daily support is found at 109.55-109.40. So any pull back that holds above this area is considered a buying opportunity for a move towards 111. The bearish divergence provides us a warning but not a reversal signal. This signal will come with the break below 109.40. If and when this support fails to hold, we should expect USD/JPY to fall at least towards the Daily cloud support currently at 107.40.
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  #753  
Old 16-05-2018, 06:50 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Fractal analysis for USD / JPY currency pairs as of May 16


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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 111.38, 110.96, 110.66, 110.09, 109.87 and 109.55. Here, we follow the development of the upward structure of May 4. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 110.66. In this case, the first target is 110.96. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is the level of 111.38. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.


Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 110.09 - 109.87. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 109.55. This level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.66 Take profit: 110.94

Buy: 110.98 Take profit: 111.36

Sell: 110.09 Take profit: 109.90

Sell: 109.85 Take profit: 109.60
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  #754  
Old 17-05-2018, 09:03 PM
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USD/JPY analysis for May 17, 2018


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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 110.75. According to the H1 time – frame, I found broken bullish flag in the background, which is sign that buyers are in control. I also found rising MACD histogram, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 111.40.

Resistance levels: R1: 110.50 R2: 110.64 R3: 110.87

Support levels: S1: 110.13 S2: 109.91 S3: 109.75

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.
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  #755  
Old 17-05-2018, 09:33 PM
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Wave analysis of the USD / JPY currency pair for May 17, 2018


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Analysis of wave counting:

The yesterday's attempt to complete the heavily prolonged upward movement was completed by failure, and from the level of the 110th figure, the price of the currency pair USD / JPY returned to the area of highs reached on Tuesday. The resulting wave situation allows us to assume that the currency pair remained in the stage of formation of the wave 5, a, 4, C, C, (B), keeping the potential for growth of quotations, at least to the level of 111.00. At the same time, under the current circumstances, a currency pair may at any time make a turn and still complete the entire wave a, 4, C, C, (B).

The objectives for the option with purchases:

111.00 111.85 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

109.18 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

108.10 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The upward wave 4, C, C, (B) complicated its internal wave structure, which led to the refinement of the whole wave counting. Thus, I recommend buying a pair with targets that are about 111 figures and an estimated level of 111.85, which is equivalent to 76.4% of Fibonacci. I recommend going back to sales after the completion of wave 4, which can be determined, for example, on the output of the tool from the upward corridor.
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  #756  
Old 18-05-2018, 06:18 PM
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USD/JPY analysis for May 18, 2018


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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 111.02. According to the H1 time – frame, I found broken intraday bullish flag, which is a sign that buyers are in control. The trend is bullish and the MACD oscillator is rising, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 111.40.

Resistance levels: R1: 111.12 R2: 111.38 R3: 111.90

Support levels: S1: 110.35 S2: 109.82 S3: 109.56

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.
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  #757  
Old 18-05-2018, 10:56 PM
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Global macro overview for 18/05/2018

The overnight Japan national CPI data slowed to 0.7% on yearly basis in April, down from 0.9% and below the expectations of 0.8%. That's the second month of decline and it moved further away from Bank of Japan 2.0% inflation target. It's also the lowest level since September 2017 and off recent cyclical high of 1.0% set in February. Overall CPI slowed to 0.6% yoy, down from 1.1% yoy. The other index of CPI, excluding food and energy, slowed to just 0.4% yoy, down from 0.5% yoy.

Recently, BoJ had abandoned the time frame for which the economy will meet the 2.0% inflation target. Moreover, the bank maintained the stance to continue with the ultra-loose monetary policy. Nevertheless, while recent surge in oil price could help raise overall and ex-food CPI ahead, the core CPI data remained worryingly weak. That's why the ongoing BoJ easying program cloud now is continuing without any particular deadline as there is still no inflationary pressures on the horizon.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market keeps trading inside of a rising parallel channel and it made another local high at the level of 111.03 in overbought conditions. As long as the price will stay inside of the channel, the outlook remains bullish.The risks to this outlook are any safe haven flows which might see JPY strengthen. The nearest technical supports for the pride are seen at the level of 110.43 and 110.03.


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  #758  
Old 22-05-2018, 05:05 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Technical analysis on USD/JPY for May 22, 2018

The USD/JPY pair remains in a bullish trend. Price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. As long as price is above 110.80, short-term trend remains bullish. Medium-term trend remains bullish as long as price is above 110.


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Blue line -medium-term support

Red line - short-term support

The USD/JPY pair is showing bearish divergence signs on the 4-hour chart. A break below 110.80 could signal that start of a bigger reversal. Confirmation of a reversal will come only with the break below 110. Until then, short- and medium-term trend remains bullish.
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  #759  
Old 22-05-2018, 06:26 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Fractal analysis for USD / JPY currency pairs as of May 22


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For the Dollar/Yen pair, key levels on a scale are: 112.12, 111.82, 111.38, 110.96, 110.54, 110.31 and 110.02. Here, we follow the upward structure development of May 4. The continued upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 110.98 with the target at 111.38, near the consolidation. The potential value for the top is the 111.82 level, which we expect consolidation and a downward pullback upon reaching this zone in the corridor 111.82 - 112.12.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 110.54 - 110.31, breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction, here the target is 110.02, this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend: the upward structure of May 4.

Trading recommendations:


Buy: 110.98 Take profit: 111.36

Buy: 111.40 Take profit: 111.80

Sell: 110.52 Take profit: 110.33

Sell: 110.28 Take profit: 110.04
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