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  #451  
Old 17-04-2019, 07:35 PM
TifiaFX TifiaFX is offline
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USD/CAD: Market Expectations
17/04/2019

On Wednesday, commodity currencies strengthened against the US dollar against the backdrop of favorable statistics from China.
At 12:30 GMT Statistics Canada and the Bank of Canada will present data on foreign trade in Canada and data on inflation. Consumer prices in February rose by 1.5% (+ 1.4% in January) in annual terms and the base consumer price index rose by + 1.5%. If the data for March are worse than the previous values, then this will negatively affect the CAD. Data better than the forecast and above the previous values will strengthen the Canadian dollar.

Despite the current decline, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3260 (EMA144), 1.3210 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
USD / CAD declined during the Asian session, breaking short-term strong support levels of 1.3350 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.3340 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The breakdown of the local support level of 1.3300 may increase the risks of further USD / CAD decline with targets at the support levels of 1.3260, 1.3210.
The signal for the resumption of purchases will be the return of USD / CAD to the zone above the levels of 1.3340, 1.3350 with growth targets at resistance levels of 1.3450 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700), 1.3660 ( the highs of 2018), 1.3790 (the highs of 2017).
Support Levels: 1.3320, 1.3340, 1.3300, 1.3260, 1.3210, 1.3155, 1.3090, 1.3045
Resistance Levels: 1.3340, 1.3350, 1.3370, 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3290. Stop Loss 1.3340. Take-Profit 1.3245, 1.3200, 1.3155, 1.3090, 1.3045
Buy Stop 1.3340. Stop Loss 1.3290. Take-Profit 1.3370, 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

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  #452  
Old Yesterday, 07:19 PM
TifiaFX TifiaFX is offline
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
04/18/2019

Weak macro data from Europe and published at the beginning of the European session on Thursday caused a weakening of the Euro and a drop in the EUR / USD pair.
The preliminary PMI indexes for April were lower than expected. Eurozone production PMI was 47.8, which is below the forecast of 47.9. The compound PMI of the Eurozone was 51.3 against the forecast of 51.8.
The data presented increase the likelihood of further easing of the ECBs monetary policy.

Having broken through a strong support level of 1.1285 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart, as well as a Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), EUR / USD reached a week low near the 1.1243 mark. Breakdown of this local support level will cause further weakening of EUR / USD with targets located at support levels of 1.1210 (November lows), 1.1190 (March and year lows), 1.1120, 1.1000.
An alternative scenario will be associated with a return to the zone above the resistance level of 1.1300, which will create prerequisites for a stronger upward correction to the resistance levels of 1.1390 (EMA144), 1.1440 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Short positions are preferred.
In the period from 12:30 to 14:00 GMT, important macro data from the US will be published, which will cause an increase in market volatility. Among the published data that should be noted are the preliminary PMI business indices in the USA for April, as well as data on retail sales. Data worse than the forecast will negatively affect the dollar, which will cause its sales and fixation of long positions on it before the long weekend, associated with the meeting of the Catholic Easter.

Support Levels: 1.1250, 1.1240, 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1390, 1.1440

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1240. Stop Loss 1.1290. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1290. Stop Loss 1.1240. Take-Profit 1.1320, 1.1390, 1.1440

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