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Forex Analysis Analize forex market trends by using specific method of common analysis. This forum discuss about them in depth.

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  #11  
Old 19-11-2013, 08:32 PM
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EUR/USD: general analysis on 19.11.2013

Current trend

The Unified European currency continues to strengthen gradually against the American dollar. On the four-hour chart the price is above the moving average with the period 50 confirming uptrend.

Euro is also supported by fundamental data. The yield of 10-year Italian bonds has reached the level of 4.04% for the first time and disagreement in the party of Silvio Berluskoni shall strengthen the position of the government. However, investors’ sentiment can be clouded by the strike of the transport workers in Portugal, as they are firmly set against reduction in wages and the increase of the work hours and possible privatization of the public transport. It is unlikely that the workers can get more favourable terms as country’s budget will be approved at the end of November and government is not planning to make major amendments.

ZEW business sentiment index in Germany and Eurozone will become known today. According to the forecast this index shall increase, which will support European currency.


Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level on the four-hour chart is the previous highs of price at the level of 1.3537. Support level will be one of the local lows at 1.3441.



Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions above the level of 1.3537 with the target of 1.3600 and stop-loss at 1.3512.

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  #12  
Old 20-11-2013, 05:40 PM
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GBP/USD: Pound is growing due to weakening in the USD on 20.11.2013

Current trend

Last night Ben Bernanke said that he supports policy of Janet Yellen in regard to economic stimulation. According to him it is necessary to make all efforts for full recovery of the US economy. The US Fed believed that the policy of assets purchase shall be continued until stabilization of the employment rate and the decline of inflation.

Support and resistance

On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is in the positive zone below the signal line giving a sell signal. However, Stochastic lines are directed upward and are going to enter overbought zone. The nearest support level is the local lows of 1.6090, which will be followed by the levels of 1.6050 and 1.6000. Resistance levels are 1.6150, 1.6180 and 1.6210.

Trading tips

Fundamental indicators continue to put pressure on the American dollar; therefore the pair is likely to continue growth. Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.6150 with the target of 1.6210.

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  #13  
Old 16-11-2015, 10:49 PM
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With kind permission of the Administration we'll be glad to continue to share our view of the latest Forex news with everybody.
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  #14  
Old 16-11-2015, 11:13 PM
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EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The EUR /USD pair is under strong pressure from the difference between monetary policies, led by the EU and US. The ECB aims at extending its quantitative easing programme as the forecast for inflation was revised down due to the strengthening in the EUR.
At the same time, despite of a slight decline in inflation expectations, Fed officials believe that necessary conditions for a hike in the US interest rates will be achieved in the short term.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Consumer Price Index, due in the eurozone. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected at 0.1% and at 0.0% on an annual basis. If the indicator comes in below the forecast, a significant decline in the EUR may follow.
ECB President Draghi's Speech is due today as well. His dovish outlook for the EU economy may add to pressure on the European currency.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, MACD is below its signal line, forming a sell signal. Stochastic lines are in the neutral zone and directed horizontally.
Moreover, an engulfing pattern was formed that suggests a possibility of a correction.
Thus, a likelier scenario is a correction to the level of 1.0893 after which a downward trend will resume.
Support levels: 1.0673, 1.0624, 1.0571.
Resistance levels: 1.744, 1.0829, 1.0940.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.0750 with the target at 1.0820 and stop-loss at 1.0730.
Short positions can be opened when the price reaches the level of 1.0670 with targets at 1.0630, 1.0580 and stop-loss at 1.0690.

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  #15  
Old 20-11-2015, 07:44 PM
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GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, the GBP managed to strengthen against the USD despite a decline at the close of trading.
The National Statistics released UK Retail Sales data for October. After a 1.7% rise in September, the indicator came in at -0.6%, below the forecasted -0.5%. Retail Sales ex-fuel also fell by 0.9%, while analysts expected a decline by 0.5%.
Initial Jobless Claims statistics, released in the US, confirmed the forecast and indicated a decline from 276K to 271K in November. At the same time, according to Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, the index of manufacturing conditions came in at 1.9 points, well above the forecasted -1.0 and the previous -4.5 points.
Recent FOMC Minutes showed that a majority of Fed officials favor a hike in the US interest rates at the upcoming Fed meeting.

Support and resistance

Support level: 1.5254 (MA50).
Resistance level: 1.5335 (yesterday's high).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.5171 and stop-loss at 1.5250.

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  #16  
Old 23-11-2015, 08:45 PM
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USD/CHF: pair overbought

Current trend

Switzerland’s export-oriented economy is under pressure amid a slowdown in the eurozone and China. Moreover, a strong national currency makes Swiss export less competitive.
Swiss inflation and retail sales growth have fallen to almost zero and industrial production has declined. At the same time, the Fed is expected to raise its interest rates at December meeting. These factors will keep the Swiss franc from growing in the USD/CHF pair.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price is moving in an ascending channel between 1.0240 and 0.9800. Though the pair is overbought and is at its year highs, it still has a potential for growth.
On the daily, weekly and monthly charts, OsMA and Stochastic indicators recommend long positions. Nevertheless, on the 4-hour chart, Stochastic is starting giving a sell signal. Thus, a correction is possible to the support levels of 1.0120 (EMA50 and the lower border of an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart), 1.0000 (the middle of the channel on the daily chart and EMA144 on the 4-hour chart).
Support levels: 1.0120, 1.0000, 0.9880, 0.9800.
Resistance levels: 1.0240, 1.0300.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0170 with targets at 1.0120, 1.0090, 1.0010 and stop-loss at 1.0210.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0220 with targets at 1.0240, 1.0300 and stop-loss at 1.0190.


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  #17  
Old 25-11-2015, 08:15 PM
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NZD/USD: US Dollar gains back losses

Current trend

The next RBNZ meeting is due on 9 December. While the Fed is getting ready to start tightening US monetary policy, NZ monetary policy tends to remain loose.
Amid lowering exports to China, falling commodity and dairy products prices and a slowdown in GDP growth, the RBNZ is likely to cut its interest rates again. The head of the RBNZ Graeme Wheeler has repeatedly stated possibility of this scenario.

Support and resistance

Today, due to the strengthening in the USD, the NZD/USD pair has rebounded down from the resistance level of 0.6575 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart and EMA50 on the daily chart).
OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour chart have started giving sell signals. On the daily chart, Stochastic is turning to short positions as well.
As long as the price is trading below the resistance levels of 0.6750 (EMA144), 0.6860 (23.6% Fibonacci), 0.6890 (EMA200 on the daily chart), a downward dynamics remains valid.
Support levels: 0.6530, 0.6500, 0.6465, 0.6435, 0.6400.
Resistance levels: 0.6575, 0.6615, 0.6700, 0.6750.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 0.6500, 0.6470, 0.6435, 0.6400, 0.6310 and stop-loss at 0.6580.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.6610 with targets at 0.6690, 0.6750 and stop-loss at 0.6550.


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  #18  
Old 26-11-2015, 09:14 PM
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USD/CAD: in upward trend

Current trend

Since the opening of the Asian session, the US Dollar has been growing. Yesterday, the US currency gained support from macroeconomic statistics that strengthened expectations of a hike in US interest rates at the upcoming Fed meeting.
US Energy Information Administration reported a rise by 0.961 billion barrels in crude oil stocks that added pressure on Canada's currency.
Amid expectations of US interest rates increase, oversupply of the world oil market and Canada's loose monetary policy, the USD/CAD pair tends to continue growing in the medium term.

Support and resistance

Though OsMA and Stochastic on the daily chart recommend short positions, they are still giving buy signals on the weekly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the indicators are turning to long positions as well.
Long positions remain valid while the price is trading above the key support level of 1.2965 (38.2% Fibonacci and EMA 144 on the daily chart).
Support levels: 1.3240, 1.3200, 1.3140, 1.3100, 1.3050, 1.2965.
Resistance levels: 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3450.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current level or from 1.3310, 1.3290, 1.3260, 1.3230 with targets at 1.3350, 1.3390, 1.3410, 1.3450 and stop-loss at 1.3190.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3180 with targets at 1.3140, 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.2965 and stop-loss at 1.3220.


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  #19  
Old 27-11-2015, 09:19 PM
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XAU/USD: pair resumed fall

Current trend

After Thanksgiving Day in the US yesterday when American markets were closed and volatility remained low, since today’s opening the XAU/USD pair is falling.
Most likely, amid expectations of monetary policy tightening in the US downward dynamics in the pair will remain until the Fed’s meeting on 16 December.
Currently, market expectations that are represented by the price of Fed Funds futures stand at 78% probability of an interest rate increase in December.

Support and resistance

The pair is falling along a channel on the daily chart with the lower border below the level of 1050.00, and is heading towards 965.00 (ЕМА200 on the monthly chart).
At the same time, an upward correction is possible to the levels of 1085.00, 1095.00 (ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart), while a breakout of the level of 1105.00 (the middle line of the upward channel) could send the price towards 1138.00 (38.2% Fibonacci correction, ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
On all charts from the 4-hour to monthly, OsMA and Stochastic suggest a fall continuation.
Support levels: 1065.00, 1060.00.
Resistance levels: 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00, 1118.00.

Trading tips

Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1064.00 with targets at 1060.00, 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1078.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.


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  #20  
Old 30-11-2015, 11:33 PM
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XAG/USD: pair in flat

Current trend

Today the XAG/USD pair is growing.
However, the pair remains under pressure amid investors’ expectations of an interest rates hike in the US in December. According to the Fed Fund Futures, the probability of the rate increase in December is at 78%. On Friday, March futures on silver fell by 12.7 cents, while the WSJ Dollar index remains at 13-year highs.
Investors’ attention is focused on the US labour market data for November that is due on Friday and which is going to play a key role for the decision on interest rates at Fed’s December meeting.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the XAG/USD pair is falling along a channel with the lower border below the level of 13.85.
Prior to the publication of important data the price will stabilise near the level of 14.00 (year lows). An upwards correction towards the level of 14.60 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) is possible. However, a breakdown of the level of 14.00 would accelerate the fall.
On the 4-hour and daily charts, OsMA and Stochastic are turning to purchases.
Support levels: 14.00, 13.80, 13.50.
Resistance levels: 14.35, 14.60, 14.80, 15.30.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 14.00, 13.80, 13.50 and stop-loss at 14.35.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 14.60 with targets at 15.30, 15.50.


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