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  #181  
Old 12-03-2018, 05:33 PM
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Oil Rallies on U.S. Drilling Activity Reduction, Booming Labor Market



Oil markets rallied on Monday on the back of a fall in the number of U.S. rigs and as the U.S. economy continued to post solid job gains, which the industry hopes will drive increased fuel demand.

U.S. WTI crude futures stood at $62.10 per barrel, 6 cents or 0.1 percent higher. Brent crude futures stood at $65.58 per barrel, 9 cents or 0.1 percent higher from their last close.

The U.S. economy reported the biggest job growth in over one-and-a-half years in February, with non-farm payrolls surging by 313, 000 jobs in the previous month, according to the Labor Department.

In oil markets, U.S. energy firms in the previous week reduced the number of oil rigs for the first time in almost two months, with drillers reducing four rigs to 796, according to Baker Hughes energy services firm on Friday.

Despite the lower rig count, which is an early indicator of future production, activity continues to be much higher than the same period a year ago, when just 617 rigs were active and majority of analysts anticipate U.S. crude oil production to increase further.
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  #182  
Old 02-04-2018, 03:42 PM
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Oil Prices Edge Up on Reduced U.S. Drilling Activity



Oil prices climbed on Monday, boosted by a decline in U.S. drilling activity and by expectations that the U.S. could re-impose sanctions against Iran. U.S. WTI crude futures traded at $65.21 per barrel, up 27 cents or 0.4 percent from their previous close. Brent crude futures traded at $69.71 per barrel, rising by 37 cents or 0.55 percent. Meanwhile, Shanghai September crude futures were fetching 415.6 yuan or $66.26 per barrel, 0.9 percent higher.

According to analysts, oil markets continued to be anxious about whether the U.S. administration will abandon or maintain the nuclear deal with Iran.

In addition, prices were also supported by a weekly report that there was a decline in activity of drilling for new oil production in the U.S.

U.S. drillers cut seven oil rigs in the week to March 29, bringing the total count down to 797, according to General Electric Co's Baker Hughes. It marks the first time in three weeks that the rig-count declined.

Oil prices have been mostly supported by supply restraint headed by the OPEC and Russia, which began in 2017 in order to curb oversupply and drive up prices.

Increasing trade tensions between the U.S. and China are likely to affect sentiment and could result in volatile trading in the following days, traders and analysts said.

China has rolled out additional tariffs of up 25 percent on 128 U.S. products including frozen pork, as well as wine and certain fruits and nuts, in reaction to U.S. duties on imports of aluminum and steel, the nations' finance ministry on Sunday night.
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  #183  
Old 03-04-2018, 08:33 PM
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Global macro overview for 03/04/2018

Sources in the White House say that a preliminary agreement on the new shape of the NAFTA agreement may be published already during the Summit of the Americas scheduled for next week, which will start on April 13 in Peru. White House spokeswoman Natalie Strom said that the negotiation process is going quite quickly and the NAFTA countries will be ready on time. In turn, trade advisor Peter Navarro, when asked about the reasons for such a rush, cited the argument related to the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Mexico (July). Nevertheless, President Trump on Twitter again criticized the issue of excessive immigration of Mexicans to the US.

The most difficult issues in the NAFTA talks with Mexico and Canada concern US demands on automotive trade and dispute settlement systems. Linking the future of the 24-year-old trade deal to Trump's border wall plan has never been among US negotiating objectives.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame before the agreement will take place. The market has dropped below the level of 63.71 and made a local low at the level of 62.80 before bouncing a little in order to test the 63.71 resistance. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 62.53 - 62.43 area and breakout below this level will open the road towards the level of 59.93.

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  #184  
Old 05-04-2018, 04:19 PM
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Oil

On Wednesday, the US Department of Energy is set to publish data on reserves, expert forecasts are negative, an increase in stocks is expected, which puts pressure on prices. At the same time, on Tuesday the API announced a reduction in inventories against the background of increased processing, so Wednesday's data may be far from the forecasts and could cause volatility in the markets.

According to Novak, the Minister of the Energy of Russia, the OPEC + countries may well be at a meeting in June to discuss the possibility of extending the deal to reduce production and the following year. Earlier it was reported that Russia and Saudi Arabia are working on a document that will make the current temporary agreement permanent, that is, the term of its validity can be extended immediately for 10-20 years. The OPEC countries as a whole are in favor of this perspective, because in their opinion, the agreement played a positive role and led to the elimination of most of the imbalances in the oil market.

Support for Brent is at the level of 65.60, it seems more likely for a return to growth and an attempt to test the January peak.
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  #185  
Old 05-04-2018, 04:25 PM
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Oil Rallies on Unexpected Drawdown in U.S. Crude Stockpiles



Oil prices edged up on Thursday, clinging to a late-night session gain in the previous day, lifted by the U.S. government data showing a surprise drawdown in crude inventories.

U.S. WTI crude for May, 19 cents higher or 0.3 percent, trading $63.56 per barrel after closing 14 cents down. Brent crude for June delivery was up 20 cents or 0.3 percent at $68.22 per barrel, having settled 10 cents lower.

Ahead of the recovery in prices late on Wednesday, following the publication of the Energy Information Administration EIA inventory data, WTI and Brent contracts have hit two-week lows after China proposed a broad range of new charges on U.S. exports, stoking concerns of a trade war.

U.S. crude stockpiles declined by 4.6 million barrels in the previous week, against analysts' expected 246, 000 barrels build, EIA data showed. Gasoline stocks declined by 1.1 million barrels, against analysts' expected 1.3 million barrel drawdown.

Distillate stockpiles increased by 537, 000 barrels, against an expected 1.1 million barrels decline. Oil prices were also buoyed by a recovery in the U.S. stock market and a survey by Reuters showing OPEC oil production declined in March to an 11-month low due to falling Angolan exports, Libyan outages and a further drop in Venezuela production.
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  #186  
Old 11-04-2018, 04:15 PM
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Trading plan for 11/04/2018

The weaker data on inflation from China has undermined optimism in the Asian session. The biggest changes are on AUD and NZD cross versus JPY. Oil is lower after the adverse effect of the API report. Mixed moods are on the stock market. The Nikkei gave the initial increases and loses 0.4 percent. At the same time, the Shanghai Composite is defending itself by 0.6%.

On Wednesday 11th of April, the event calendar is busy with important data releases. Italy will issue the Retail Sales data, the UK will post the Manufacturing and Industrial Production data, Goods Trade Balance and Construction Output data. Meanwhile, the US will post CPI and Core CPI data, Crude Oil Inventories data and FOMC Meeting Minutes in the evening. Moreover, there is a scheduled speech from ECB President Mario Draghi later in the day.
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  #187  
Old 11-04-2018, 04:18 PM
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Crude Oil analysis for 11/04/2018:

According to the API report, last week crude oil inventories in the US rose 1.8 million barrels after a drop of 3.3 million barrels a week earlier. This is an unexpected result for the forecast before the Department of Energy report assuming a drop in inventories by 1m bbl. Gasoline inventories increased by 2 million barrels and distillates dropped by 3.8 million. In general, the report had a slightly negative tone which meant a decrease of about 30 cents for WTI prices. The second one was done after disappointment with data from China and now WTI is just under 65.3 USD per barrel.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture on the H4 time frame. The recent spike up from the oversold market conditions resulted in a local top at the level of 65.84, just below the key technical resistance at the level of 66.69. The momentum followed the price as it broke above its fifty level as well. The spike looks solid and strong, and bulls might try to test the wall of resistance between the levels of 66.35 - 66.69. If this zine is violated, then the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 50% Fibo retracement at 66.84. The immediate support is seen at the level of 64.16.

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  #188  
Old 13-04-2018, 01:02 PM
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Oil and ruble

Brent and WTI oil prices have updated their highs since December 2014, reaching $ 73 and $ 67 per barrel on Wednesday. respectively, against the backdrop of growing geopolitical tensions. The stock report in the US was the market ignored as a minor factor in the current conditions.

There are no reasons for a fundamental nature for the growth of quotations, so the update of the highs is completely geopolitical. The further development of events will depend directly on the development of the situation in the Middle East. If the tension is removed, oil will return to the range of 65/69 dollars per barrel. The statement of the Secretary General of OPEC on reducing the level of world reserves already this year to 5-year average market values will not be taken into account as a minor factor in the current conditions.

The ruble markedly corrected on Wednesday after it became clear that the US was afraid of escalating military and economic escalation. After Donald Trump on Twitter issued a formidable promise for "new smart missiles," the dollar rose to a high of 65.06 rubles, but then this statement was actually disavowed by the US Secretary of Defense, from which it followed that the grounds for a strike on Syria is not enough. A little later, Finance Minister Mnuchin said that there would be no sanctions against Russia's sovereign debt, which actually brought the line under bearish drivers. The ruble retreated to 62.50, and, most likely, will try to return to a range below 60 rubles / dollar. and in the medium term.
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  #189  
Old 13-04-2018, 01:21 PM
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OPEC Expects Oil Markets’ Further Tightening Despite U.S. Shale Boom



OPEC said the global oil stock glut is on the verge of disappearing, citing the strong energy demand and its own production cuts while revising up its estimates for production from competitors who have taken advantage of the higher oil prices.

Over the past year, U.S. share production has boomed since the producer cartel reduced its own output along with Russia to drive up global oil prices.

However, as oil production collapsed in Venezuela, an OPEC member and is still facing production issues in nations such as Libya and Angola, the group is still pumping out oil that is below its targets meaning the world needs to utilize stocks to meet increasing demand.

The oil exporters' cartel said in its monthly report oil stocks in the developed world backtracked an increase in January to decline by 17.4 million barrels in February to 2.854 billion barrels, around 43 million barrels higher than the most recent five-year average.

According to OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo, the group's conformity level under the supply-reducing agreement has reached 150 percent. He said that the oversupply has significantly contracted by nine-tenths since the beginning of 2017.

Barkindo said the group observed an accelerated shrinkage of inventories from unprecedented highs of around 400 million barrels to around 43 million above the five-year average.

Stockpile levels are presently 207 million barrels below their level in February of last year, with crude stocks in a surplus of 55 million barrels and product stocks in a deficit of 12 million.

OPEC said its collective production declined 201, 000 bpd to 31.96 million bpd in March from the prior month. The monthly figure is below the 32.6 million bpd that OPEC perceives as demand for its crude for the entirety of the year.
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  #190  
Old 16-04-2018, 08:58 PM
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Oil

Oil continues to trade above three-year lows, focusing on the main indicator, which affects quotes on the balance of supply and demand. The efforts of OPEC + give the result. The IEA already predicts that in May, the balance in the market will finally be reached. The commercial reserves of the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development fell in March to 2.841 billion barrels, and in May, according to the IEA, it will approach the average for 5 years.

Traders practically do not pay attention to the reports of Baker Hughes, which show stable growth of active drilling rigs and should somewhat cool the demand, neither on API commercial inventory reports. Its role is also played by the complication of the geopolitical situation after the US missile struck against targets in Syria and the production in Venezuela sharply declined.

Support for Brent is at the level of 68.50, within the correction it is possible to decrease to this level, but strategically the prices are aimed at 80 dollars per barrel. This can be reached in the perspective of the month.
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