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  #2901  
Old 16-04-2018, 08:25 PM
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Global macro overview for 16/04/2018

Contrary to the majority of the market participants expectations, the S&P rating agency decided to increase the outlook for Poland's rating from stable to positive. The agency expects a strong expansion of the economy in 2018 in view of solid external demand, generous transfers from the EU and the resilience of the foundations of the Polish economy. The revision also points to the growing conviction that reforms of the tax administration have generated a secular increase in public revenues at the level of about 0.5% of GDP. The latter issue could have outweighed the change in the rating, despite maintaining the opinion on the presence of a number of risks, including an increase in the budgetary pressure on the part of the shrinking and aging working-age population.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/PLN technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair stability this morning suggests that a part of the PLN strengthening at the end of last week could be matched by the positioning of investors in the event of a revision of the outlook, as a result of which the continuation of the strengthening is not certain. The market has slipped towards the parallel channel lower line around the level of 4.16, which is as well the technical support for the price. The market conditions look oversold, so the bounce towards the nearest technical resistance is possible soon. Nevertheless, the PLN remains dependent on fluctuations in external sentiment and the recent improvement in sentiment is conducive to EUR/PLN slippage, although, in the wider perspective, the market is not clearly visible.



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  #2902  
Old 16-04-2018, 08:35 PM
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Global macro overview for 16/04/2018

The Syrian affair had an unpleasant development over the weekend, but the market reaction is surprisingly almost invisible. A drop of USD/JPY by 30 pips, or fluctuations in the price of Gold within 0.5% are not worth describing. Suggestions that military action will not turn into a longer campaign (President Trump said that "the mission was done") help calm the reaction. Nevertheless, the continuation of the conflict is not excluded: Trump warned that he would respond to the next attack with the use of chemical weapons; President Putin warns against the "chaos" that may arise from subsequent attacks on Syria; The US is ready to impose sanctions on other Russian companies that may be suspected of ties to the Syrian regime. In the intervals between macro data publications, information services (and social networks) remain to be monitored in the event of unexpected messages.

t is possible that Monday will be used by investors to confirm whether you can really ignore weekend events, or whether there is a reason to reduce risky positions. The technical picture on pairs with AUD, NZD and JPY indicates ugly corrections and unsuccessful breaking out of significant technical levels. At least it may cool the enthusiasm for continuing the trends from last week. However, if the next day remains calm, the return of risk-on is the path along the line of the least resistance.

The main point of the calendar on Monday is retail sales from the USA. Expectations are on the positive side (0.4% m/m) after a series of three readings at -0.1%. Despite this, global investors must not forget that the USD has a problem to clearly gain after good publications, but the disappointments are carefully reflected by the market.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. There is no dramatic improvement in the US Dollar price so far, neither the markets are willing to drop lower. The recent breakout below the intraday support at the level of 89.63 is still within the daily range as the key technical support remains at the level of 89.35. On the other hand, the key technical resistance is seen at the level of 89.96. Neutral bias is being continued untli one of this levels is violated.



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  #2903  
Old 16-04-2018, 08:38 PM
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Weekly review of EUR / USD as of 04/16/2018

Despite the fact that macroeconomic statistics was clearly in favor of the dollar, the greenback had to surrender its position against the euro. This is largely due to the growing tension between the US and Russia. Strange as it may seem, it is not only the ruble that suffered from new US sanctions. The dollar also had a hard time, as investors do not like warlike appeals, especially against the largest nuclear power holder. Although the politicians of both countries regularly made conciliatory statements, this had no effect, as literally immediately after, other representatives of the ruling class, especially the United States, began to throw threats. Moreover, the massive rockets fired over Syria did not add calmness, since until the last moment there were fears that the Russian military might accidentally hit the United States with France and Britain by its blow.

However, if you look at the statistics, everything is pretty good in the US. The rate of producer price growth accelerated from 2.8% to 3.0% and inflation rose from 2.2% to 2.4%. So there is no doubt that the Fed will fulfill its promise and double the refinancing rate twice before the end of this year. The data on the labor market was somewhat disappointing, as the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 44 thousand. This was due to an increase of 53 thousand of repeated applications, which indicates the growth of long-term unemployment. This is an extremely bad signal. However, given the data on inflation, investors could not afford to pay attention to this annoying moment. However in Europe, the growth rate of industrial production slowed from 3.7% to 2.9%. So we can say that if it were not for statistics, then the dollar would certainly be noticeably cheaper.

This week, Europe will again receive very little news. In particular, we are talking about inflation. However, these data will not have a significant impact on the market, since the final data should coincide with the preliminary estimate, which showed growth from 1.1% to 1.4%. All this has already been taken into account by the market. In the US, it is expected that the growth rate of retail sales will accelerate from 4.0% to 4.2%. If we recall the growth of inflation, then the growth of retail sales further increases the profit of companies, so investors have a reason for joy. Significant growth is also expected both in the number of issued construction permits and in the new construction projects themselves. True, the growth rate of industrial production may slow down from 4.4% to 4.0%, which is quite expected, since the stockpile has been growing for quite some time. And now commercial reserves can increase by another 0.6%. Despite this, the negative impact will be mitigated by the expected reduction in the number of applications for unemployment benefits by 34 thousand.

However, as well as during the past week, good statistical data will only support the dollar a little, as the political situation is heated to the limit. The US announced new sanctions against Russia, and also intend to strengthen its military presence in Syria. Naturally, the growing confrontation between the United States and Russia will have a negative impact not only on the ruble, but also on the dollar to a much lesser extent. Thus, it is worth waiting for the further growth of the euro to 1.2425.
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  #2904  
Old 16-04-2018, 08:42 PM
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The pound is preparing to update its high

Eurozone

This week will be poor for macroeconomic indicators, which can change the prospects for the euro. On Tuesday, the ZEW Institute will present an economic sentiment index for the month of April. Most similar studies indicate a slowdown in activity.

On Wednesday, there will be data on consumer inflation for the month of March. Inflation is already slowing down throughout this year, giving the ECB the opportunity to evade the curtailment of the incentive program and, according to forecasts, the market will not see any positive changes on Wednesday.


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The rhetoric of the ECB leadership against the backdrop of a slowdown in the euro zone economy is becoming more mild. With the rate at which the forecasts are changing, the first increase has been postponed until Q3 2019. Perhaps the markets will be shaken by the speech of the chief economist of the ECB Praet or at least the players will need benchmarks that are presently absent.

The euro continues to trade in a range that tends to narrow and is currently in an unstable equilibrium situation. In the first days of the week, trading will take place within the area of 1.2200 - 1.2470, without the obvious advantage of any of the parties.
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  #2905  
Old 16-04-2018, 08:56 PM
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United Kingdom

The British pound finished the week with growth, based on the increasing probability of a rate hike by the Bank of England. Despite weak GDP growth, inflation, and the labor market's status, the BoE is given an opportunity that it will most likely take advantage of in order to gain an additional argument in the battle for financial flows after the country leaves the EU.

The pound will receive several rather important signals this week. The threat of a rate hike by the Bank of England in May compels us to pay more attention to the key parameters of the economy, so the report on the labor market on Tuesday will cause increased interest. The forecast is positive. The average wage is expected to increase and the number of applications for unemployment is reduced. The data may increase the likelihood of an increase in the rate and lead to an increase in the pound.

On Wednesday, the report on inflation for the month of March will be published. The forecasts are neutral but some slowdown in price growth by the market is almost ignored, as the influence of the weak pound is dying out.


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Technically, the pound looks more than confident. The probability of updating the three-year maximum set in January is quite high. The breakthrough of the wedge opens the way to the level of 1.4340 and further to the upper boundary of the rising channel at 1.44.
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  #2906  
Old 16-04-2018, 08:57 PM
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Oil

Oil continues to trade above three-year lows, focusing on the main indicator, which affects quotes on the balance of supply and demand. The efforts of OPEC + give the result. The IEA already predicts that in May, the balance in the market will finally be reached. The commercial reserves of the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development fell in March to 2.841 billion barrels, and in May, according to the IEA, it will approach the average for 5 years.

Traders practically do not pay attention to the reports of Baker Hughes, which show stable growth of active drilling rigs and should somewhat cool the demand, neither on API commercial inventory reports. Its role is also played by the complication of the geopolitical situation after the US missile struck against targets in Syria and the production in Venezuela sharply declined.

Support for Brent is at the level of 68.50, within the correction it is possible to decrease to this level, but strategically the prices are aimed at 80 dollars per barrel. This can be reached in the perspective of the month.
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  #2907  
Old 18-04-2018, 02:12 PM
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The US economy shows growth

In the first half of the day, weak data was released that limited the growth potential of the European currency, and at the North American session a good report on industrial production and the number of housing starts in the United States supported the US dollar.

According to the German institute ZEW, the economic sentiment in Germany in April this year deteriorated due to fears of escalating international trade wars.

Thus, the leading index of economic expectations in April fell to -8.2 points against 5.1 points in March. Economists had expected the index to drop to -3.0 points. Weak fundamental data that came out at the end of the previous year and the beginning of this month for Germany, as well as military actions in Syria, put primary pressure on the leading data on economic sentiment.

In the afternoon, a good report from the US Department of Commerce on the number of housing starts has supported the US dollar. More active construction of apartment buildings had the greatest impact on the overall indicator. According to the data, the number of housing starts in March 2018 increased by 1.9% compared to the previous month and amounted to 1.319 million houses per year.

The number of building permits in March increased by 2.5% compared to the previous month and amounted to 1.354 million homes per year. Economists predicted an increase in housing starts in March by 1.6%, and the number of permits by 0.8%.


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As I noted above, a good report on industrial production also affected the market. The main growth was provided by the automotive and equipment sector for business.

According to the data of the Federal Reserve System of the USA, industrial production in March grew by 0.5% compared to the previous month. Economists had expected production growth of 0.4%. In comparison with the same period of the previous year, the growth of industrial production in March amounted to 4.3%.

Capacity utilization in March also increased, to 78%, while economists expected that capacity utilization in March would be 77.9%. On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund has published a report on the prospects for the world economy, raising forecasts for GDP growth in the UK, the US, the euro area and other developed economies this year. The IMF expects that all major economies will continue to grow in 2018, predicting an increase in world GDP by 3.9%.

The IMF believes that the problems associated with trade relations between the United States, China and other countries will have little impact on the prospects for global GDP growth.
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  #2908  
Old 18-04-2018, 02:21 PM
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The RBA is leaning toward raising interest rates

The Australian dollar continued to trade in a narrow lateral channel after a significant wave of growth last week. The publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia did not lead to serious changes in the market, as traders and investors found nothing new in them.

The RBA also expects that the decline in unemployment will be a gradual process, as will the return of inflation in the range of 2-3%. As for the GDP, the regulator expects that the growth potential in 2018 will be much higher than in 2017. However, risk factors remain like the higher rate of the Australian dollar, which will slow GDP growth and keep inflation.

News on China's economic growth has also left an impression on the markets. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's gross domestic product in the 1st quarter of 2018 grew by 6.8% compared to the same period the previous year. Economists had expected GDP growth of 6.7%. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2017, when China's economy grew by 1.6%, growth was only 1.4%, indicating a slowdown.

As for the technical picture of the AUDUSD pair, a lot depends on whether buyers will be able to move beyond the resistance level of 0.7800, above which one can expect an update of new highs of 0.7840 and 0.7870. In the event of a return to the support level of 0.7760, pressure on the Australian dollar could lead to a correction in the areas of support at 0.7720 and 0.7670.

Despite the good performance of the labor market in the UK, the British pound failed to gain a foothold on the monthly highs it achieved on Tuesday morning. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, unemployment in the UK in February this year fell to a further low. Also, there was a growth in wages, which will stimulate the economy due to a potential increase in public spending.

According to the report, the unemployment rate in the UK from December 2017 to February 2018 fell to 4.2%, compared with 4.3% for the period from September to November. Also noted was the growth of wages, which for the period mentioned above had increased by 2.8%. This happened due to the good growth of wages in the construction sector.


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  #2909  
Old 18-04-2018, 02:50 PM
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Brent: East is a delicate matter

Donald Trump's statement that "the mission is carried out" after the military strikes against Syria by the United States and its allies allowed the "bears" of Brent and WTI to go on a counterattack. The conflict around Damascus did not turn into a mass brawl and the risks of interruptions in supplies from the Middle East declined, which led to the removal of oil futures from the region of 3.5-year highs. However, fears about the resumption of economic sanctions against Iran, political instability in Venezuela, OPEC's readiness to expand its commitments beyond 2018, and a strong global demand set the fans of black gold in a major way. In addition, who will give his head to be cut-off to guarantee that the US president will not throw out another fortune?

Theoretically reducing the degree of geopolitical risks opens the way for correction. "Bears" are waiting for their hour, guided by the growth of American production by about a quarter from mid-2016 to 10.53 million bpd and the increase in drilling rigs by 73 units from the beginning of the year. The dynamics of indicators indicates that US companies are actively developing production and simultaneously hedging price risks through the sale of futures contracts. The problem is that the decline in stocks indicates the outpacing dynamics of domestic demand. According to the forecasts of experts in Bloomberg, by the end of the week of April 13, oil reserves in the USA will have decreased by 600 thousand barrels and for the first time in the last few years, will have fallen below their five-year average.

Dynamics of US stocks


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Thus, the large-scale fiscal stimulus favorably affects domestic demand and allows to cover the negative from the increase in production. The increased interest in black gold in other countries, coupled with the implementation of the Vienna agreements of OPEC, lays a solid foundation under the upward trend for Brent and WTI. Thus, the volume of oil refining in China in March set a new record of 12.13 million bpd. The previous one was recorded in November (12.03 million). The acceleration of the indicator compared with the average for the first two months of the year (11.56 million) and March 2017 (11.19 million) speaks of the growing appetite of the Celestial Empire. The volume of its domestic extraction of black gold is 3.76 million bpd. The indicator is wandering near the lowest mark since June 2011, and its dynamics convince that Beijing is actively buying oil abroad.

The situation can be changed only by the large-scale trade war between the US and China. This is the opinion of the International Energy Agency. Nevertheless, it does not change its forecast for the increase in global demand for 2018 at 1.5 million bpd. This shows that the IEA does not believe in military action. In our opinion, if the world economy headed by the US is beginning to restore the growth rates taken in 2017. The increased interest in oil will allow the "bulls" of Brent to continue the northern trend.

Technically, the April update of the maximum will increase the risks of implementation of the Targets by 161.8% and 200% in the AB = CD patterns. They are located near the marks of $ 75-76.5 per barrel.


Brent, daily chart

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  #2910  
Old 18-04-2018, 06:31 PM
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Euro buyers need to be very careful

Yesterday, a number of good fundamental data on the US economy had a good support for the US dollar and statements by representatives of the Fed, which are scheduled for this week, gave even more optimism to investors.

For example, a representative of the Fed, Evans, said yesterday that the regulator could continue to gradually increase interest rates, even though there is no risk of excessive acceleration of inflation. Charles Evans also voiced anxiety about the uncertainty regarding foreign trade policies, which could carry risks to the US economy.

His colleague in charge, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams, also remains optimistic about the rates and growth pace of the US economy. However, Williams sees the risks for the growth of the US economy in the next few years, which are mainly tied to the foreign trade policy of the White House. First of all, according to the president of the FRS San Francisco, under the negative impact of the current policy of Trump, there will be companies and ordinary consumers. According to Williams, he expects that the GDP growth rate this year will average 2.5%.

Fed President Philadelphia Harker did not comment on the situation associated with the prospects for monetary policy, saying only that unemployment is now below the natural level, which is a good signal for the Federal Reserve System.

For today, there is a planned release of a number of important fundamental statistics for the euro area, including inflation, which may determine the further direction in the EURUSD pair at the end of the week.

As for the technical prospects, while the trade is above the lower border of the rising channel, which is currently taking place in the area of 1.2340, there is no special reason to worry about the further growth of the euro. However, its breakthrough will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders of large buyers, which will quickly pull the euro down to levels of 1.2300 and 1.2270. In case of further growth, problems for bulls can occur at the levels of 1.2380 and 1.2420.

The Japanese yen ignored good data on Japan's export growth and continued its decline against the US dollar.

According to the report of the Ministry of Finance, Japan's exports in March 2018 grew as a result of good foreign demand, mainly for cars and equipment. Thus, exports increased by 2.1% compared to the same period of the previous year, while economists forecast a larger increase of 4.9%. Japan's foreign trade surplus in March amounted to 797.3 billion yen against 440 billion yen from economists predicted.


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