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  #3011  
Old 17-08-2018, 05:33 PM
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The dollar is not ready for correction yet

The news that China and the United States are planning to hold trade talks helped to ease tensions in financial markets and led to a correctional decline in the dollar, but the level of the Chinese delegation is clearly insufficient to resolve the accumulated issues.

The dollar index reached its peak in more than a year, as a number of factors contribute to its growth: the monetary policy of the Fed is washing it out of developing countries, and the threat of a large-scale trade war forces investors to look for safe assets, and the dollar, as the world's main currency, is on this list under the first number.

However, everything is not so rosy, if you look at the numbers. The US Treasury's report on cross-border financial flows shows that foreign capital does not at all seek in the US. For several months now, the gross sales volume of private and public counteragents has been growing faster than purchases, in June the balance for the first time since last year became negative, and even more indicative, a steady decline in foreign capital in the stock markets has been observed for 6 months already.


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What causes the US economy to grow at a rapid pace, and why the US stock indices look better than in other countries? The answer is simple, a source of growth in good old buybacks, or a reverse buy-back of stocks.

According to Goldman Sachs, US companies will send for a buyback of shares to a trillion dollars this year, the total amount of funds involved in the buyout will increase by 46% compared to 2017.

There is money for this process. The graph below shows the dynamics of corporate income before and after taxes, there is a sharp increase in the second indicator, this is a consequence of the tax reform, which eased the financial burden on companies, and it is this revenue growth that is the source of the confident behavior of the stock market. At the same time, we note that the gross income of companies before taxes has so far hardly reached the level of the third quarter of 2014, that is, the tax reform has not given any economic effect yet.


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The figures point to a rather entertaining process - easing the debt burden leads to the desire to expand buybacks, but not to the growth of the economy as a whole. Expansion of the same buybacks directly indicates that companies are under the most severe debt press, and therefore are forced to direct all available funds in order to prevent a decline in capitalization. Expansion and modernization of the economy, as Trump hoped, is still out of the question.

The US economy continues its growth solely at the expense of outstripping growth of debts at all levels, the margin of safety becomes no higher, but lower, as evidenced by the dynamics of cross-border capital flows. The toughening of the trade war with China is more than likely, since the positions of the parties are antagonistic and a compromise without serious concessions is impossible, and the growth of the dollar rate and the Fed rate increase will inevitably lead to a decrease in corporate profits. Together, these factors will put a lot of pressure on the US stock market, which can go into deep correction in the coming months. Nevertheless, in the short term, the dollar will continue to be in demand, and its strengthening against major competitors is more than likely.
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  #3012  
Old 17-08-2018, 05:34 PM
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EUR / USD

Today Eurostat will publish data on consumer inflation for July, the expectations are neutral and, if they are in line with the forecasts, will not have a noticeable impact on the euro. The reasons for the political nature continue to adversely affect the euro, which remains under considerable pressure.

The most likely scenario for Friday is trading in the range of 1.1345 / 1410, towards the end of the day the decline to the lower end of the range and the attempt to go lower.
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  #3013  
Old 17-08-2018, 05:35 PM
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GBP / USD

Positive dynamics in the pound is not, after a short correction, a high probability of continuing the decline. Exceeding the forecasts for retail sales in July did not make any impression on the players, the pound for the resumption of growth requires a serious breakthrough in the negotiations on Brexit and steady growth of the economy, in practice, neither one nor the other is observed.

Corrective growth is limited to resistance 1.2750, near which sales can resume, the week the pound will complete, most likely, near support 1.2670.
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  #3014  
Old 06-09-2018, 05:30 PM
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Global macro overview for 06/09/2018

After a long weekend, Wall Street returned to work on Tuesday. In a situation where the situation did not improve in developing markets. Argentina's plans to reduce the deficit or rumors about raising rates in Turkey have not helped the currencies of these countries. He was also losing the South African Rand. Indexes in Germany and France have dropped by losing more than one percent.

But of course, the Americans, as usual, could not take it easy. They were more likely to be interested in the fate of the NAFTA treaty after Donald Trump's weekend verbal assault on Canada. The president's threats to Russia, Syria and Iran could also be alarming in the event of an attack on the Idlib province, where the survivors of anti-government forces sought shelter.

On Tuesday in the USA, the PMI (final read) and ISM indexes for the industrial sector were published. PMI index in August amounted to 54.7 pts (expected from a drop from 55.3 to 54.5 pts), and ISM index in August amounted to 61.3 pts (expected from a drop from 58.1 pts to 57.7 pts) .). Expenditures for construction investments in July increased by 0.1% MoM (0.5% expected). Wall Street still showed that he did not see any threats. It can be said that investors believe that the US is a paradise whose atmosphere nothing and nobody will disturb. Nevertheless, there is an evident increase in risk aversion across the world, and the deteriorating situation in emerging markets also hits developed markets.

For now, fortunately, this does not translate into a serious strengthening of the dollar (the EURUSD rate returned even today above 1.16), but it may be a matter of time. This pessimistic approach was supported by the fact that during today's session in the US, it will be much harder for the SP500 to return to zero.

The NASDAQ, who is harmed by the Congress meeting on Internet social platforms and their sensitivity to hacker attacks or other problems that may lead to the loss of sensitive data, is seriously retracted. Dow Jones remains almost neutral, but he will probably be the fourth consecutive successive consecutive one. When we look at how incredibly strong Wall Street has remained against the world in recent times, the correction may be very close.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. Indeed, the indexes started the session from declines, but they were small and immediately demand increased. After the creation of the session double bottom, the SP500 index moved north and it was only guessing whether the end of the session would be the victory of bears or bulls. Nevertheless, the gap between the levels of 287.63 - 288.62 was almost filled and a bounce from this zone occured. The neraest important resistance is seen at the level of 289.37.


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  #3015  
Old 06-09-2018, 05:48 PM
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Germany and the UK refuse the key requirements for Brexit

The British pound and the euro rose sharply against the US dollar after news came that Germany and the United Kingdom abandoned the major requirements for Brexit. The source of the message is Bloomberg. If this information is reliable, rejection of the major requirements will help achieve the EU-UK trade agreement and prevent serious consequences of Brexit.

It should be noted that the UK's withdrawal from the EU is scheduled for March 2019. The data released in the first half of the day did not support the European currency, although they were quite positive. According to the report of the research company IHS Markit, the index of supply managers PMI for the German services sector in August this year was 55 points against the preliminary estimate of 55.2 points.

The Compound PMI in August came in at 55.6 points. The index of supply managers PMI for the euro area services sector in August reached 54.4 points against 54.2 points in July this year. The Compound PMI of the eurozone in August rose to 54.5 points against 54.3 points in July, while economists expected growth to 54.4 points.

The data on the US foreign trade deficit in July this year demonstrated again its most significant monthly growth, and exerted pressure on the US dollar. Evaluating the report, the blockade measures on the part of the White House failed to bring significant change in the deficit.

According to experts, the main reason for the growth of the deficit was the slowdown in the growth of other countries' economies, which showed a negative impact on the export of American goods. The US Commerce Department said that the trade deficit in goods and services in July rose by 9.5% compared to June and amounted to 50.08 billion US dollars.

As noted above, the growth was due to exports, which decreased by 1% compared to the previous month. While imports grew by 0.9%. Economists predicted that the deficit would be $ 50.3 billion. As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the buyers coped with the task and returned to the 1.1600 resistance level which was lost yesterday, maintaining the upside potential in the risky assets which was mentioned in the morning review.

This situation may lead to the trend resumption, a correction on which has been observed since August 28. The main task for the near future will be the breakthrough of resistance 1.1650, which will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders and a test of 1.1690 level.

The services data released in the first half of the day in Great Britain had supported the British pound. According to the report, PMI's supply managers index for the UK services sector increased to 54.3 points in August this year, while this index was at the level of 53.5 points in July. Economists had expected PMI for the UK service sector to be 53.9 in August.


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  #3016  
Old 06-09-2018, 05:57 PM
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EUR/USD. Dollar "on a horse", but ahead - an important Friday

The euro-dollar pair this week makes futile attempts to gain a foothold within the 16th figure: the bulls clearly do not have enough strength and arguments for the upward breakthrough. Bears also do not show much activity – Wednesday's decline ended with a price rollback. The stalemate is due to expectations for Friday, when the meeting of the Eurogroup, and in the nonfarm will be published in the US. In anticipation of these events, market participants are not eager to open large transactions, although the external fundamental background now contributes to the growth of the US currency.

By and large, the dollar is strengthened only by increased uncertainty and increased risks of escalation of the trade war between the United States and China. Argentina, Turkey and South Africa, which are in a state of economic crisis, add fuel to the fire. Canada also contributes to strengthening of the greenback by its intractability of the NAFTA. Another factor is the military action in Syria.

According to media reports, Russian and Syrian aircraft launched an airstrike on the province of Idlib, which is held by the rebels. It is worth noting that Donald Trump warned on the eve of the Russian Federation and Syria from such actions. In other words, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is fraught with a new round of geopolitical tensions.

Such a "bouquet" of fundamental reasons, on the one hand, is very convincing for escaping from risk, and on the other hand – is not entirely reliable in terms of assessing future prospects. For example, if on Thursday Washington and Ottawa find common ground in the negotiations, the US dollar may fall under a wave of sales, as it was when the US made a deal with Mexico. Negotiations between the United States and China are also ongoing, although in this case, active action by Beijing will be after the November elections to the US Congress. The economic crises in Argentina and South Africa are of indirect importance to the dynamics of the dollar, complementing only the general fundamental background.

In other words, the fundamental factors of such a global nature are inherently unreliable, therefore it is inexpedient to talk about a stable trend of dollar growth based only on them. The current news background may be useful for short-term trading, but if we talk about the medium term (not to mention the long-term), then we should pay attention to several other factors.

In my opinion, in the near future the attention of EUR/USD traders will switch to the prospects of monetary policy in the US and the eurozone. In this context, the Eurogroup meeting and the release of Nonfarm plays a big role. As reported by the European media, the Vienna meeting of Eurozone Finance Ministers and the ECB will be largely devoted to monetary policy in the EU. In particular, officials will discuss whether the eurozone economy is ready to complete QE and raise rates.


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Despite the fact that the decisions of the Eurogroup are declarative, Friday's event may affect the dynamics of the EUR/USD. At least we will know the opinion of Mario Draghi on the eve of the September meeting of the ECB (which will be held next Thursday, September 13). If his rhetoric is again pessimistic and cautious, the European currency will sink throughout the market. But an alternative option is also possible, especially if the opinion of the "German hawks", who consistently advocate tightening the conditions of monetary policy, is shared by other members of the Eurogroup.

Traditionally, the strong influence on the dynamics of the pair have Nonfarms. According to preliminary forecasts, unemployment in the US will remain at 3.9%, and the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector will grow by 190 thousand. The growth of the average hourly wage will also remain at the July level – 0.3% on a monthly basis. Let me remind you that the last release of Non-Farms disappointed traders, as the main indicators came out worse than expected (for example, unemployment fell not to 3.8%, but to 3.9%). As you can see, experts are quite optimistic about August: if the release comes out at the forecast level, the probability of the fourth Fed rate hike this year will increase again, determining the growth of the US currency. Otherwise, the pair will again test the 16th figure, once again trying to gain a foothold in this price area.


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From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair is also at a crossroads. Now the price has approached an important resistance level - to the midline of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which coincides with the Kijun-sen line. If the pair can gain a foothold below 1.1515, then the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator will form a bearish "Line Parade" signal, which will open the way for a larger decline, down to the annual lowest levels in the area of the 13th figure.
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  #3017  
Old 06-09-2018, 06:17 PM
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Gold wings have been clipped

August turned out to be the fifth consecutive month of gold closing in the red zone. The precious metal lost more than 2% amid the acceleration of the US economy, increasing the chances of four acts of monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve in 2018 and tensions over trade wars. And only moderately - "dovish" rhetoric of Jerome Powell in Jackson hole allowed the "bulls" to lick some of its wounds and try to break above $1210 per ounce. Alas, the joy of buyers was short-lived. In early September, the dollar began to recover in the face of problems in the negotiations between the United States and Canada and Donald Trump's intentions to expand the size of import duties against China by $200 billion.

The dynamics of gold


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According to Citigroup Global Markets, investors do not need the gold in a world where stocks and bond yields are rising. The precious metal does not bring dividends and interest as equity and debt securities, and its status as a safe-haven asset has been taken away by the US dollar. As a result, speculators are increasing net short positions on the precious metal for the fifth week in a row and brought them to record highs. The stocks of the largest specialized fund SPDR Gold Shares fell to its lowest levels since November. From the levels of April highs, the index has lost 14%.

However, everything in this world is relative. Silver feels much worse than gold, the loss of which is about 16% since the beginning of the year. Due to the high proportion of industrial use in aggregate demand, this metal is more vulnerable to a slowdown in the global economy than the sector leader. As a result, their ratio has soared to the highest levels since the global financial crisis.

Dynamics of the ratio of gold and silver



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Further dynamics of the XAU/USD will entirely depend on the US dollar, whose position looks strong. First, the Atlanta Federal Reserve predicts that US GDP in the third quarter will accelerate to 4.6%. Secondly, the futures market estimates the probability of four Federal funds rate increases in 2018 at 75%. A month ago, the figure was only slightly higher than 60%. Third, Trump is about to expand the size of import tariffs against China, which will increase the risks of a slowdown in the Chinese economy and put pressure on the markets of developing countries.

What can save gold from the sixth consecutive month of closing in the red zone? Correction in the US stock market, verbal intervention of Donald Trump, the deterioration of macroeconomic statistics in the United States and, finally, a breakthrough in the relationship between Washington and Beijing. So far, three of the four above events seem unlikely, and the rhetoric of the US president tends to put pressure on the dollar only in the short term. In this regard, sales of the XAU/USD on growth remain valid.

Technically, the inability of the bulls to hold gold prices above $1209 per ounce indicates their weakness. The initiative moved to the "bears", which broke through the lower border of the short-term upward trading channel and intend to restore the downward trend.

Gold, daily chart


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  #3018  
Old 07-09-2018, 04:55 PM
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Trading plan for 07/09/2018

On Friday, the 7th of September, the main event is the NFP-Payrolls data release at 12:30 pm GMT and the other data associated with this event: Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings and Participation Rate. This is not the only important publication, the global investors are also waiting for, among other things, GDP in the Eurozone and a change in employment and PMI in Canada. Talks on the NAFTA agreement are still ongoing, sources familiar with the topic say that the consensus is unlikely this week.
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Old 07-09-2018, 05:33 PM
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USD/JPY analysis for 07/09.2018:

In July, the number of employees in the US increased by 157,000 which was a slight disappointment. In August, markets expect stronger figures. The average of forecasts by analysts of the largest financial institutions is 191,000 people. It is believed that some short-term factors affecting the weak July result have already been leveled and the latest data will show an improvement in the situation. I am talking primarily about the Toys R Us bankruptcy, which strongly affected employment.

According to RBC, the employment growth trend oscillates around 200,000 people. It consists of several factors - a good ADP result, a record low value of initial applications for unemployment benefits and a high number of new jobs. Goldman Sachs is slightly less optimistic, believes that NFP will amount to 175,000. people due to the negative impact of seasonal work fall.

In addition to the NFP, the global investors will also learn about the US unemployment rate. Here, analysts expect a slight decline of 0.1 p.p. from 3.9% to 3.8%. As Fedic told FED on Wednesday, the US economy is already in full employment, so not much room for the improvement left.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market dropped towards the level of 110.54, which was a technical support for the price. Currently, the price is hovering around this level, but the local low was made already at the level of 110.37. The next support is seen at the level of 110.20, 110.10 and 110.00, so this looks like a pretty solid zone of support. Om the other hand, the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 110.68. Please notice the negative and weak momentum indicator reading that support the short-term bearish bias.



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