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  #341  
Old 11-09-2018, 08:07 PM
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GBP/USD: on the eve of the meeting of the Bank of England
11/09/2018
Current dynamics

The US dollar declined on Monday. The driver of its decline was the message that the UK and the EU have made progress on Brexit negotiations.
The EU's chief negotiator for Brexit, Michel Barnier, said that an agreement with the UK could be reached in the next six to eight weeks. In response to this message, the pound rose sharply, including against the dollar, carrying with it other currencies, primarily European ones.
On Tuesday, with the opening of the trading day, the decline in the dollar continued. However, closer to the beginning of the US trading session, the decline in the dollar slowed, and the dollar index DXY, which tracks the rate of the US currency against the basket of 6 other major currencies, shifted to positive territory near 95.20, 6 points higher than the opening level of the trading day.
This week, investors will follow the meeting of the Bank of England, which will be held on Thursday September 13, and at 11:00 (GMT) will publish the decision on the interest rate. It is expected that the rate will remain at the same level of 0.75%. Economists believe that the next rate increase will occur no earlier than May next year.
The main risks for the UK after Brexit are associated with expectations of a slowdown in the country's economic growth, as well as a large current account deficit in the UK's balance of payments.
Meanwhile, the Fed is likely to continue tightening monetary policy. As Federal Reserve President Boston Rosengren said in an interview with the WSJ on Monday, "The US economy has good performance, and there is no need to slow or accelerate the current rate of quarterly rate increases". Rosengren sees no reason to pause the rate hike until economic growth and inflation slows. And this means, in his opinion, the Fed will raise the rate this year 2 more times. This is a bullish factor for the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Since the beginning of the week, the GBP / USD pair has grown amid reports of the possibility of a favorable outcome of the Brexit talks. At the beginning of the European session on Tuesday, GBP / USD was trading near the 1.3085 mark. However, in the future, GBP / USD moved to negative territory, trading closer to the opening of the US trading session near the mark of 1.3015.
Starting in May, GBP / USD is traded in a downward channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which is near 1.2300.
Corrective growth may continue to resistance levels 1.3215 (Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% of the correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3300 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, short positions are preferable, a long bearish trend persists, and the GBP / USD pair may fall towards the August and annual lows near the support level of 1.2670, and 1.2365 mark, through which the lower border of the descending channel on the weekly chart is passing.
Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2910, 1.2800, 1.2670, 1.2590, 1.2365
Resistance levels: 1.3085, 1.3100, 1.3215, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2990. Stop-Loss 1.3050. Take-Profit 1.2910, 1.2800, 1.2670, 1.2590, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.3050. Stop-Loss 1.2990. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3215, 1.3300


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  #342  
Old 12-09-2018, 07:36 PM
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WTI: oil and oil products stocks rose
12/09/2018
Current dynamics

As the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported late Tuesday, oil and oil products stocks fell 8.636 million barrels last week. On the eve of oil prices have been growing on reports of riots in Libya and in connection with the hurricane Florence approaching to the US.
After the publication of the API data, the growth of oil quotes increased.
As a result, a barrel of oil WTI worth at the end of the trading day on Tuesday 69.66 dollars. Since the opening of the trading day on Wednesday, oil prices have remained almost unchanged, and investors are waiting for the publication (at 14:30 GMT) of weekly official data on US stocks from the Energy Ministry of this country. It is expected to reduce inventories by 0.805 million barrels, which should positively affect oil prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The price of WTI crude oil remains in an upward trend. While the price is above the key support levels of 66.35 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the wave of growth, which began in June 2017 with the support level near the 42.00 mark), 64.80 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart), long-term upward dynamics persist .
The nearest growth target is 71.00 (highs of August), through which the upper line of the ascending channel on the daily chart passes.
Support levels: 68.10, 67.00, 66.35, 64.80, 64.15
Resistance levels: 70.00, 71.00, 72.80, 73.85

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 68.90. Stop-Loss 70.10. Take-Profit 68.10, 67.00, 66.35, 64.80, 64.15
Buy Stop 70.10. Stop-Loss 68.90. Take-Profit 71.00, 72.80, 73.85


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  #343  
Old 14-09-2018, 07:19 PM
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EUR/USD: Technical Analysis
14/09/2018

Since April 2018, EUR / USD remains within the descending channel on a weekly chart, the lower limit of which is close to the support level of 1.1150. However, at the moment the upward correction continues.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank retained the key interest rate at 0%, and on deposits - at the level of -0.40%. The ECB confirmed its intention to keep interest rates unchanged until the summer of 2019 and lowered its forecasts for GDP growth for 2018 and 2019, from 2.1% to 2.0% and from 1.9% to 1.8%, respectively.
Nevertheless, EUR / USD rose against the background of publication (at 12: 30 GMT) of weak inflationary indicators of the USA.
The dollar index DXY also trades lower, at 94.45 against 94.56 at the opening of the trading day, and EUR / USD at the beginning of the European trading session is trading slightly above the 1.1700 mark.
In case of breakdown of the local resistance level 1.1730 (August highs and EMA200 on the weekly chart), EUR / USD is likely to grow to resistance levels 1.1770 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1790 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014). However, above the resistance level 1.1790, growth is unlikely.
The key interest rate of the Fed is in the range of 1.75% -2% and it will be much higher than the ECB rate by the time the ECB starts its policy tightening cycle.
The difference between interest rates in the US is an important fundamental factor in favor of dollar purchases against the euro.
The breakdown of the important support levels 1.1625 (EMA50 on the daily chart), 1.1605 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will open the way for further decline with a long target at the support level of 1.1150 (the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.1660, 1.1625, 1.1605, 1.1535, 1.1510, 1.1400, 1.1345, 1.1285, 1.1150
Resistance levels: 1.1730, 1.1770, 1.1790

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1650. Stop-Loss 1.1740. Take-Profit 1.1625, 1.1605, 1.1535, 1.1510, 1.1400, 1.1345, 1.1285, 1.1150
Buy Stop 1.1740. Stop-Loss 1.1650. Take-Profit 1.1770, 1.1790

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  #344  
Old 18-09-2018, 07:50 PM
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GBP/USD: Brexit will remain the focus of attention
18/09/2018

US President Donald Trump on Monday said that the United States for many years had suffered huge losses in foreign trade, and can not continue like this.
As it became known, the administration of the US President Donald Trump intends to introduce new duties on goods from China worth a total of $ 200 billion. The new tariffs will come into force on September 24 and will be 10%, and by the end of the year they will be raised to 25%. The Chinese authorities reported that they will introduce reciprocal duties on American imports.
European currencies reacted quite restrainedly to this news, as it did not become unexpected.
Last week, the Bank of England kept the interest rate at 0.75%. In the Bank of England's reports, it was noted that Brexit remains the key risk to the British economy. News on Brexit will continue to be in the center of attention of market participants and most strongly influence the dynamics of the pound.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The GBP / USD pair is declining at the beginning of the European trading session, but continues to trade above 1.3100, near the upper line of the rising channel on the daily chart.
Since mid-August, GBP / USD has been developing an upward trend, which can be described as a correction after months of decline. The growth may continue to the levels of resistance 1.3215 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall of the GBP / USD in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3300 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, the long-term bearish trend persists, and the GBP / USD pair may decline towards the August and annual lows near the support level of 1.2670 and the lower boundary of the downward channel on the weekly chart passing through the 1.2365 mark.
The breakdown of the local support level 1.3055 will be a signal to resume the decline.
Support levels: 1.3085, 1.3055, 1.3000, 1.2985, 1.2800, 1.2670, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.3200, 1.3215, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3050. Stop-Loss 1.3175. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2974, 1.2800, 1.2670, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3175. Stop-Loss 1.3050. Take-Profit 1.3200, 1.3215, 1.3300


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  #345  
Old 21-09-2018, 08:13 PM
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XAU/USD: the price of gold rose against the background of a weakening dollar
21/09/2018
Current dynamics

Prices for gold increased by $ 3 to $ 1277.00 per troy ounce on Thursday. The sale of the dollar and its weakening contributed to higher prices for commodities and precious metals.
On Friday, during the Asian and early European sessions, the dollar's decline continued, however, closer to the beginning of the US trading session, the dollar moved to a positive territory.
The dollar index DXY, which tracks the rate of the US currency against the basket of 6 other major currencies, after rising sharply on Thursday to the June 2018 mark, is growing on Friday at the beginning of the US trading session near the 93.61 mark.
The pair XAU / USD also declines after rising yesterday. At the same time, XAU / USD continues to trade in the range between resistance levels 1212.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart) and 1185.00 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), pending the meeting of the Federal Reserve System, which will take place at the next week (September 25 - 26) to assess the prospects for the monetary policy of the Fed. With an increase in the Fed's interest rate, the price of gold usually falls.
The overall trend of XAU / USD, still remains bearish. Another test of the resistance level 1212.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart) is possible. However, further growth is unlikely, unless, of course, the dollar will not resume a decline.
Investors take into account the 100% probability of an increase in the Fed's interest rate in September. In conditions of an increase in the interest rate, the investment attractiveness of the dollar is growing, and gold is falling.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Since mid-April, XAU / USD is trading in a downward channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which is near the support level of 1128.00 (the low of 2016).
Below the key resistance level of 1259.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the downside dynamics prevails.
The breakdown of the support level of 1185.00 (the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016) will confirm the return of XAU / USD to the global downtrend that began in October 2012.
The signal for medium-term purchases and the development of an alternative scenario will be a breakdown of the resistance level at 1212.00. In this case, the corrective growth can last up to resistance level 1220.00 (Fibonacci level 38.2%). Short positions are preferred below this level.
Support levels: 1200.00, 1198.00, 1185.00, 1175.00, 1160.00, 1128.00
Levels of resistance: 1212.00, 1220.00, 1237.00, 1248.00, 1259.00, 1266.00, 1277.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1206.00. Stop-Loss 1213.00. Take-Profit 1200.00, 1198.00, 1185.00, 1175.00, 1160.00, 1128.00
Buy Stop 1213.00. Stop-loss 1206.00. Take-Profit 1220.00, 1225.00, 1237.00, 1248.00, 1259.00, 1266.00


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  #346  
Old 25-09-2018, 07:45 PM
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NZD/USD: market expectations in connection with the meetings of the Fed and the RBNZ
25/09/2018
Current dynamics

On Wednesday, the two largest world central banks will hold meetings and decide on the interest rate. The Federal Reserve's decision on the interest rate will be published at 18:00 (GMT). It is widely expected that the rate will be increased by 0.25% to 2.25%, and this increase is already included in the price. Investors are more interested in the press conference and the opinion of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on the prospects for monetary policy for 2019.
If Powell signals about the possibility of a faster increase in the interest rate, this will cause the dollar to strengthen and the US stock markets fall. Any hint of Powell that the Fed can pause, will bring down the dollar.
On the part of the RB of New Zealand, investors do not expect a change in the current monetary policy, despite strong macro data published last week. As the Bureau of Statistics of New Zealand reported, the country's GDP grew by 1.0% in the second quarter or by 2.8% in annual terms (the forecast was + 0.8% and + 2.5%, respectively). The pace of economic growth exceeded the expectations of the central bank by two times.
Moreover, the comments of the bank may indicate the possibility of lowering interest rates if economic growth does not accelerate. Probably, the head of RBNZ Adrian Orr will once again confirm the bank's desire to pursue a soft monetary policy, which will lead to pressure on the New Zealand currency. In any case, the volatility in the New Zealand dollar trade is expected to grow during the RBNZ press conference, which will begin on Wednesday at 22:00 (GMT).
The different focus of monetary policy in the US and New Zealand will further increase the difference between interest rates in the US and New Zealand. And this is the main fundamental factor for further reduction of NZD / USD. The main global trend of the pair NZD / USD, is still bearish.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Trading scenarios
On Thursday, the NZD / USD attempted a breakdown of a strong resistance level of 0.6668 (EMA50 on the daily chart). Nevertheless, the breakdown of this level turned out to be false, and NZD / USD again declines, heading down the descending channel on the daily chart. Its lower limit passes below the local support level of 0.6505 (the lows of the year and September).
A confirmation of the resumption of the main scenario is the breakdown of the short-term support levels 0.6638 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.6627 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
A signal for the development of an upward correction may be a breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6700. The correction target can be resistance levels of 0.6725, 0.6740. Long-term growth targets are resistance levels of 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014; the minimums of the wave are near 0.6260), 0.6900 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, short positions are preferable.
Support levels: 0.6638, 0.6627, 0.6600, 0.6585, 0.6505, 0.6410
Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6725, 0.6740, 0.6800, 0.6865, 0.6900

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6625. Stop-Loss 0.6670. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6585, 0.6505, 0.6410
Buy Stop 0.6670. Stop-Loss 0.6625. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6725, 0.6740, 0.6800, 0.6865, 0.6900

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  #347  
Old 26-09-2018, 08:55 PM
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USD/JPY: the divergence of the monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of Japan will intensify
26/09/2018
Current situation

"We do not plan to curtail mitigation until inflation reaches 2%", Bank of Japan head Haruhiko Kuroda said at a press conference on Tuesday, adding that "the possible side effects of mitigation will not prevent further softening of the policy if necessary".
The yen continues to weaken after Kuroda's speech, and the USD / JPY came close to 113.00 before publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the Fed decision on the rate.
It is expected that the rate will be increased by 0.25% to 2.25%, and this increase is already included in the price. Investors are waiting for a press conference and Powell's speech to understand the prospects for monetary policy for 2019.
Any hints Powell on the possibility of a more rapid increase in the interest rate will cause the strengthening of the dollar. Soft Powell rhetoric will bring down the dollar.
Nevertheless, the difference between the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the Fed remains the main fundamental factor for the further growth of the pair USD / JPY. Probably, the USD / JPY will keep positive dynamics and will continue to grow, despite the speech of Powell.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Trading scenarios
Since the end of March, the USD / JPY has been growing, currently trading above the key support levels of 110.15 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the correction of the pair's growth since August last year and the level of 99.90), 110.50 (EMA200 on the daily chart). Ascending dynamics prevails. Long positions are preferred. The nearest growth targets are 113.10 levels (Fibonacci level 50% and maximums of the year), 113.70 (December highs). Long-term growth targets are the level of resistance 116.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 118.60 (highs in January 2017).
The signal for the decline will be the breakdown of short-term support levels of 112.83 (EMA200 on the 15-minute chart), 112.43 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The purpose of the downward correction is the support level of 111.68 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Support levels: 112.83, 112.43, 111.68, 111.00, 110.50, 110.15
Levels of resistance: 113.10, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop. Stop Loss 112.70. Take-Profit 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
Sell Stop 112.70. Stop Loss 113.20. Take-Profit 112.43, 112.00, 111.68, 111.40, 111.00, 110.50, 110.15

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  #348  
Old 01-10-2018, 08:06 PM
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USD/CHF: Current dynamics_01/10/2018
Despite the decline against the Canadian dollar, the US dollar maintains a positive momentum in the foreign exchange market.
Futures on the dollar index DXY, which tracks the rate of the US currency against the basket of 6 other major currencies, is trading with a slight increase at the beginning of the European session, near the 94.77 mark.
This week, the attention of traders will be focused on the publication on Friday of data from the American labor market. According to the forecast, strong data is expected.
The average hourly wage of Americans increased by 0.3% in September, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector increased by 188 00 (against +201 000 in August), the unemployment rate in September was 3.8% (against 3.9% in August). Forecasting the market reaction to the publication of indicators is often difficult. In any case, when these indicators are published, a surge in volatility is expected in the trades not only in USD, but throughout the financial market. Probably the most cautious investors will prefer to stay out of the market in this time period.
Nevertheless, if the data coincides with the forecast or will go better, then this will have a positive effect on the USD.
Last Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to 2.25%, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell confirmed the Fed's plans for another interest rate hike in 2018 and 3 rate increases in 2019.
The Fed, therefore, remains the world's single largest central bank, which is tightening monetary policy. And this, in the long run, should return to the dollar an upward trend.
At the meeting held in September, the Swiss National Bank kept its negative interest rates unchanged: the deposit rate was at -0.75%, the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate was between -1.25% and -0.25%. "The bank still considers it necessary to have a negative interest rate and is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market, if the situation requires it",- the NBS said.
Frank still enjoys the status of a refugee currency, especially recently, amid a worsening trade conflict between the US and China.
Nevertheless, the increasing discrepancy in interest rates in the US and Switzerland will increase the investment attractiveness of the dollar against the franc, which will further increase USD / CHF.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The pair USD / CHF broke through last week an important resistance level of 0.9785 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and continues to grow on Monday. The upper limit of the downtrend channel, in which the USD / CHF was declining since the middle of August USD / CHF, is also broken.
Thus, there was a strong signal, indicating a further increase in USD / CHF.
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts turned to long positions, confirming the rising dynamics of USD / CHF.
Break into the zone above the resistance level 0.9875 (the Fibonacci level of 61.8% of the upward correction to the last global wave of decline since December 2016 and from the level of 1.0300) will create prerequisites for further growth. The targets in this case will be the resistance levels 1.0100, 1.0300.
The signal for sales will be a return to the zone below the support level 0.9770 (EMA50 on the daily chart). The goals of the decline are 0.9575, 0.9520, 0.9445 (the Fibonacci level is 23.6%).
Support levels: 0.9785, 0.9770, 0.9745, 0.9640, 0.9610, 0.9575, 0.9520, 0.9445
Resistance levels: 0.9875, 0.9965, 1.0030, 1.0060

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9850. Stop-Loss 0.9790. Take-Profit 0.9875, 0.9965, 1.0030, 1.0060
Sell Stop 0.9790. Stop-Loss 0.9850. Take-Profit 0.9770, 0.9745, 0.9640, 0.9610, 0.9575, 0.9520, 0.9445


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  #349  
Old 02-10-2018, 08:31 PM
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EUR/USD: Euro remains under pressure. Trading recommendations
02/10/2018
Current situation

The euro remains under pressure due to problems in Italy. Last week, the Italian government presented a plan for the state budget, which investors fear may cause disapproval of the EU authorities. This time, the euro is falling after the comments of the head of the budget committee of the lower house of parliament, Claudio Borghi, that Italy “could solve most of the internal (economic) problems” with the help of its national currency.
The yield of government bonds in Italy jumped to the highest level in 4.5 years.
By the beginning of the US trading session, the EUR / USD pair was trading near the 1.1525 mark, which is 55 points lower than the opening price of the trading day.
Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to rise from the opening of today's trading day. The DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, has been rising 4 days in a row after the Fed raised its main interest rate by 0.25% to 2.25% last week, and Fed Chairman Powell confirmed plans for another interest rate increase in 2018 and 3 interest rate increases in 2019. At the beginning of the European trading session, DXY futures traded with an increase of 28 points, near the mark of 95.24.
On Tuesday, investors will pay attention to Powell's speech, which will begin at 16:45 (GMT).
Most likely, the reaction to his speech will be minimal. But, if he makes unexpected statements about the monetary policy of the Fed, then volatility in trading in financial markets may increase. Any hint of Powell's for a cautious approach to raising the interest rate will cause the dollar to fall and the growth of US stock markets.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Trading scenarios
During the 5-day decline, the EUR / USD pair reached a local support level of 1.1510 (May, June lows).
The trend line at the support level of 1.1645 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart) is broken.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily, weekly charts went to the side of the sellers. Negative dynamics persist. In this situation, short positions are preferred.
The farther target of the decline is at the support level of 1.1100 (lower limit of the downward channel on the weekly chart).
Consideration of long positions is possible only after returning EUR / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 1.1645.
Support Levels: 1.1535, 1.1510, 1.1400, 1.1345, 1.1285, 1.1100
Resistance Levels: 1.1645, 1.1700, 1.1725, 1.1760, 1.1790, 1.1815

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.1610. Take-Profit 1.1510, 1.1400, 1.1345, 1.1285, 1.1100
Buy Stop 1.1610. Stop-Loss 1.1490. Take-Profit 1.1645, 1.1700, 1.1725, 1.1760, 1.1790, 1.1815

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Old 08-10-2018, 07:58 PM
TifiaFX TifiaFX is offline
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GBP/USD: pressure on the pound has resumed
08/10/2018
Current Dynamics

The pound strengthened significantly at the end of last week, and the GBP / USD jumped 170 points in two days to 1.3112.
The growth of the pound contributed mainly by two news regarding Brexit. EU's main Brexit negotiator, Michelle Barnier, said the EU and Britain had reached the final stage of negotiations.
On Friday, Bloomberg reported that the European Union intends to offer the UK a very favorable free trade agreement. Brussels intends to propose an agreement that goes much further than any previous agreements. The EU proposal will provide for 30% -40% of what May requires from a large-scale transaction, which should cover aspects ranging from trade to security, the report says.
The pound was the only currency hardened against the dollar last week.
Other major dollar competitors have fallen against it. The data on the US labor market, received on Friday from the US Department of Commerce, strengthened investors' opinion that the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy.
In September, unemployment in the United States fell to 3.7%, which increases inflation expectations, especially with regard to wage growth.
At a press conference in September, Fed Chairman Powell confirmed plans for another interest rate increase in 2018 and 3 rate increases in 2019. The Fed is currently the single largest global central bank tightening monetary policy, and this will be the main fundamental driver for the growth of the dollar.
The DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, has been rising since the opening of today's trading day. DXY futures traded at the beginning of the European session near the level of 95.65, 43 points higher than the opening price of the trading day.
However, the Brexit theme remains central to the definition of further pound dynamics. In the case of a hard Brexit, the probability of which is still there, the Bank of England can go on reducing the rate to compensate for the damage. The long-term outlook for the British pound is still uncertain. In the short term, the resumption of the decline in GBP / USD is expected.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
On Monday, GBP / USD attempts to break through the support level of 1.3038 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). In case of its breakdown, the upward GBP / USD correction will end. In this case, short positions are again preferred. A long-term bearish trend persists, and the GBP / USD pair may decline to August and annual lows near the support level of 1.2670, and the lower border of the downward channel on the weekly chart, which passing through the 1.2000 mark.
The alternative scenario assumes a resumption of the upward correction and growth to resistance levels of 1.3215 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of GBP / USD in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3270 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
The signal for the development of this scenario will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.3058 (ЕМА200 on the 15-minute chart).
Farther growth targets are resistance levels of 1.3870 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 1.3980 (Fibonacci level 38.2%).
Support levels: 1.3038, 1.3000, 1.2900, 1.2800, 1.2670, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.3058, 1.3125, 1.3215, 1.3270, 1.3300, 1.3420, 1.3620

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2990. Stop Loss 1.3070. Take-Profit 1.2900, 1.2800, 1.2670, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3070. Stop Loss 1.2990. Take-Profit 1.3125, 1.3215, 1.3270, 1.3300, 1.3420, 1.3620


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