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Forex Analysis Analize forex market trends by using specific method of common analysis. This forum discuss about them in depth.

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  #711  
Old 14-01-2019, 02:52 PM
MikhailLF MikhailLF is offline
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LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: price is consolidating

Current trend

After an active growth at the beginning of the year, oil prices are consolidating near the level of $50 per barrel.

"Black gold" is supported by investors' hopes for a positive outcome of China-US trade negotiations and the end of the trade conflict in the near future. In addition, quotes are rising against the background of the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, which reported a likely reduction in production by 4.8% to 1.42 million barrels per day in 2019, which is the minimum figure for the last 30 years.

Last Friday, Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count report affected the instrument positively. During the week, the number of rigs decreased by 4 to 873 units. Over the past period, the figure also declined from 885 to 877.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing steadily. The price range narrows, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics in the short term. The MACD indicator is growing, keeping a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line), and is testing the zero line but is not likely to consolidate above it. Stochastic declines, reacting to the active “bearish” dynamics of the beginning of the week.

The current readings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the corrective decline in the short and/or super short term.

Resistance levels: 52.00, 53.19, 54.43, 55.64.
Support levels: 50.00, 49.00, 48.05, 47.00, 45.80.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 50.00 with the target at 52.00 or 53.19. Stop loss is 49.00.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 50.00 with the target at 48.05 or 47.00. Stop loss is 51.00.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.
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  #712  
Old 15-01-2019, 03:46 PM
MikhailLF MikhailLF is offline
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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

The US dollar is declining against the pound and the Australian currency, however, it shows a sideways trend paired with the euro and is growing against the yen. Today, investors will pay attention to the publication of PPI in the US (15:30 GMT+2). The indicator in monthly terms is expected to decrease to –0.1% in December from 0.1% a month earlier, and in annual terms it can remain unchanged at 2.5% in December. In the afternoon, speeches by members of the US Federal Reserve are expected. Speech by Neel Kashkari is planned for 18:30 (GMT+2), and speeches by Esther George and Robert Kaplan are expected at 20:00 (GMT+2). From their speeches, investors are hoping to understand the intentions of the regulator regarding the rate hike in 2019. Speeches of officials of this rank can have a significant impact on the dynamics of the dollar.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is moving within the range of 1.1449–1.1488. Investors are awaiting publication of data from the euro area on the trade balance (12:00 GMT+2), as well as the speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi (17:00 GMT+2).

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD continues showing positive dynamics having risen to 1.2908 during the Asian session. Today, investors are waiting for the outcome of the vote in the British Parliament on Brexit. Theresa May calls on MPs to approve the treaty, arguing that the consequences could otherwise be catastrophic. In case of failure of the vote, the Prime Minister will have three working days to prepare an alternative version of the contract.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is rising actively and has reached the level of 108.74 during the Asian session. Due to the absence of significant macroeconomic releases in Japan, the movement of the instrument is mostly technical.

AUD/USD

The pair AUD/USD is rising having reached 0.7217 during the Asian session. Against the background of the absence of macroeconomic releases from Australia, the movement of the instrument's rate is of a technical nature.

Gold

Quotes of gold demonstrate lateral dynamics and are traded near the level of 1290.00.
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  #713  
Old 16-01-2019, 03:09 PM
MikhailLF MikhailLF is offline
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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

The US dollar moderately strengthens against the euro and the yen, but shows a lateral trend paired with the Australian currency. Statistics from the USA, published yesterday, indicated a decline in the Producer Price Index to –0.2% in December from 0.1% a month earlier, but did not have a significant impact on the instrument. Investors continue to follow the news regarding the US government shutdown, which has been going on for the fourth week and, according to representatives of the administration, may last until the end of February. This situation threatens the market with possible negative consequences. Macroeconomic statistics, which can influence USD today, include the data on retail sales in the USA (15:30 GMT+2).

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair dropped to the level of 1.1410. EUR is under pressure from yesterday’s speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi at the European Parliament. The official believes that the slowdown in the economy can last longer than expected. Uncertainty about Brexit puts additional pressure on the euro. Yesterday, the British Parliament rejected an agreement on the UK leaving the EU, prepared by Prime Minister Theresa May.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair showed ambiguous dynamics on Tuesday amid heightened volatility caused by the outcome of a vote in the UK Parliament on withdrawal from the EU. Quotes fell to the level of 1.2667, after which they quickly returned to the level of 1.2869, where they are trading during today's Asian session. Yesterday, the British MPs rejected an agreement prepared by the government of Theresa May and the EU. MPs voted 432 to 202 to defeat the proposal. Now the Prime Minister has three days to present an alternative to the Brexit agreement. During this time, Theresa May will probably try to get new concessions from the EU, as well as convince the Parliament to support the deal. The instrument today may be affected by the speech of the Bank of England head Mark Carney (11:15 GMT+2), as well as statistics on the CPI in the UK in December (11:30 GMT+2).

USD/JPY

After active growth on Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair corrected down to 108.47 during today's Asian session. Yesterday's statistics from Japan was ignored by investors. The movement of the instrument rate is primarily technical. Tertiary Industry Activity Index was better than expected, but worse than in the previous month and amounted to –0.3% in December against 2.2% a month earlier.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair shows lateral dynamics within the range of 0.7224–0.7178 and has changed slightly on the whole.

Gold

Quotes of gold have ambiguous dynamics. After an active decline yesterday and a test of the level of 1286.56, the instrument rate returned to 1292.15 during the Asian session.
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  #714  
Old 18-01-2019, 03:21 PM
MikhailLF MikhailLF is offline
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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

The US dollar is moving horizontally paired with the euro, falling against the pound and the Australian currency, but is strengthening against the yen. The instrument is supported by macroeconomic statistics from the USA published yesterday. The number of initial jobless claims dropped to 213K from 216K a week earlier, which is the lowest level in the last 5 weeks. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index was better than expected reaching 17.0 points in January against 9.1 points a month earlier. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of data on Industrial Production in the US. It is expected that the indicator will fall to 0.2% in December from 0.6% a month earlier. If this assumption is right, it will put pressure on the US dollar in the short run.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is moving within the range of 1.1370–1.1403. Today, the macroeconomic calendar of euro area lacks important releases, so the movement of the rate will depend on the news from the US. Investors continue monitoring the development of the situation around Brexit. After the failure of a vote in the British Parliament, Theresa May must prepare a fallback deal.

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD continues showing positive dynamics and rose to 1.2970 during the Asian session. Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence and is preparing an alternative Brexit deal for January 21. Macroeconomic releases able to influence the instrument today include data on retail sales in the UK (11:30 GMT+2). The indicator in monthly terms is expected to decrease to –0.8% in December from 1.4% a month earlier, and in annual terms it can remain unchanged at 3.6% in December.

USD/JPY

The pair USD/JPY rose to 109.37 due to the positive statistics from the US. Statistics from Japan published this night puts pressure on the yen. National Core CPI went down to 0.7% in December from 0.9% a month earlier.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair rose to 0.7202 during the Asian session. In the absence of significant releases, the movement of AUD is technical.

Gold

Quotes of gold demonstrate lateral dynamics and are traded near the level of 1291.02.
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