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  #2991  
Old 18-05-2018, 10:55 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Global macro overview for 18/05/2018

The overnight Japan national CPI data slowed to 0.7% on yearly basis in April, down from 0.9% and below the expectations of 0.8%. That's the second month of decline and it moved further away from Bank of Japan 2.0% inflation target. It's also the lowest level since September 2017 and off recent cyclical high of 1.0% set in February. Overall CPI slowed to 0.6% yoy, down from 1.1% yoy. The other index of CPI, excluding food and energy, slowed to just 0.4% yoy, down from 0.5% yoy.

Recently, BoJ had abandoned the time frame for which the economy will meet the 2.0% inflation target. Moreover, the bank maintained the stance to continue with the ultra-loose monetary policy. Nevertheless, while recent surge in oil price could help raise overall and ex-food CPI ahead, the core CPI data remained worryingly weak. That's why the ongoing BoJ easying program cloud now is continuing without any particular deadline as there is still no inflationary pressures on the horizon.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market keeps trading inside of a rising parallel channel and it made another local high at the level of 111.03 in overbought conditions. As long as the price will stay inside of the channel, the outlook remains bullish.The risks to this outlook are any safe haven flows which might see JPY strengthen. The nearest technical supports for the pride are seen at the level of 110.43 and 110.03.


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  #2992  
Old 22-05-2018, 05:17 PM
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"Briton" - the most unfortunate on the market

GBP / USD

The British pound stayed in a downward trend amid the growing geopolitical tensions around Iran, North Korea and Ukraine. Investors also remain in the dark about the immediate plans of "Brexit" and wait for the next major economic data with a pessimistic forecasts. Today, the data on public sector borrowing in April will be publish, with a forecast of 7.2 billion pounds against -0.3 billion in March. The balance of production orders from CBI for the current month is expected to decrease from 4 to 2. The day will be parliamentary hearings on inflation. Usually, these hearings do not significantly affect the markets but now the situation is special, investors need to "remove the reaction" of the parliament to reduce inflation.

Actually, inflation indices are coming out tomorrow and expected to be mixed. Base CPI in April is projected to 2.2% YoY vs. 2.3% YoY in March, while the overall CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 2.5% YoY. The retail price index could rise from 3.3% YoY to 3.4% YoY.

We are expecting the pound to fall to 1.3330.


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  #2993  
Old 22-05-2018, 05:46 PM
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"The Australian" moved forward and dug in

AUD / USD

Yesterday, the Australian dollar showed the best correction which was already expected, even though the AUD failed to achieve the target goal of 0.7610 / 20, due to lack of support from other currencies,the growth was 70 points.

Oil rose to 1.2%, but iron ore (-0.32%), non-ferrous metals (copper-0.35%, aluminum -1.0%) also kept the growth of the "Australian". In fact, the market was confused because of the decision of the US and China to abandon the tariff war.

According to Australia, important economic data will not be available until the end of the week. If the expected strengthening of the dollar continues, the main scenario is the return of AUD / USD to 0.7440.


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  #2994  
Old 24-05-2018, 05:34 PM
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Euro buyers should try very hard

The US dollar lost a number of positions against the euro and the British pound after the report of the May meeting of the Federal Reserve System was published. Despite the fact that the representatives of the Federal Reserve spoke in favor of raising interest rates, the report of experts from the Federal Reserve spoke about a more restrained outlook.

In the minutes of the May meeting of the Fed, the leaders came to the conclusion that the next increase in interest rates would be expedient in the near future but there were no clear deadlines. Also, the leaders of the Federal Reserve did not say anything about the number of interest rate increases planned this year, as investors were more interested in this issue. The next increase in rates has already taken into account the current exchange rate of the US dollar, so serious growth has not occurred.

Fed executives also considered the possibility of abandoning the soft tone in the statement and voiced different views on tightening policies in the medium term. The analysis, as a whole, was a question of the necessity of further raising the rates, so as not to cause overheating of the economy.

In the minutes, it was possible to find a forecast on the growth rates of US GDP in the second quarter of this year, which should be higher after a slowdown in the first quarter. Experts expect that US GDP growth will exceed potential growth in 2020.

As for inflation, the managers revised it with a slight increase in the short-term forecast against the background of incoming data. It is expected that inflation will slightly exceed the target level of 2%.

As for risks, they continue to be in the fiscal and trade policies that the White House is currently leading. It is these factors that contribute to uncertainty.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, much will depend on the behavior of buyers at current lows. If we manage to stay above the level of 1.1700 before the end of the week, this will allow us to expect a larger upward correction to the resistance area 1.1750 and 1.1790, where sellers will return to the market again. If, in the next few days, trade in the EURUSD moves to the support level of 1.1690, the pressure on the euro will increase again, which will lead to a new wave of a downtrend with the update of the levels of 1.1630 and 1.1600.

Today, attention should be paid to weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US. It is expected to grow by 220,000 after 222,000 the previous week.


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  #2995  
Old 31-05-2018, 04:59 PM
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Global macro overview for 31/05/2018

The Bank of Canada kept interest rates at the current level (1.25%), but the prospects for future tightening were outlined in a more pronounced language. The Bank of Canada removed "cautious" from the monetary policy statement, suggesting a slightly less data-dependent approach to policy normalization. It means the July interest rate hike might be almost certain and it was somewhat confirmed in this passage from the BoC Monetary Policy Statement: "This should lead the market to price in a July hike with more conviction." Another very interesting quote from the statement: "Furthermore, clarification of the reasoning behind the change will likely come from BOC officials ahead of the July meeting, which could provide further hawkish surprises" might be seen as one more confirmation of a very possible interest rate hike in June.

Considering slightly worse data and considerable uncertainty regarding the future of the NAFTA agreement, this should be interpreted in the categories of a big surprise.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. In the initial reaction, the price of USD/CAD drops from 1.3045 to 1.2944 and this move is being continued further. Currently, the price has broken below all of the intraday supports and it might be heading towards the next technical support at the level of 1.2742. Any violation of the level of 1.2730 would indicate the bears have now a full control over the market and the key technical support at the level of 1.2526 might be challenged soon.



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  #2996  
Old 31-05-2018, 05:00 PM
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Global macro overview for 31/05/2018

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data published yesterday had indicated, that in May in the private sector of the American economy, the number of jobs increased by 178,000. That's less than the consensus (190,000), but still a decent figure. At the same time, the previous reading has been revised downwards (from 204,000 to 163,000). A decent rate of creation of new jobs is not shocking anyone. It also seems that with such low unemployment (below 4%), the pace of employment growth must finally slow down. Therefore, the key carrier of information on the condition of the labor market, especially in the context of the Fed's policy outlook, is the growth of wages. This data, of course, we will get to know on Friday, but already the secret of the power of broader trends has been abolished by the Beige Book of the Fed containing a description of the economic situation in individual regions.

The Beige Book prepared for the 12-13 June FOMC meeting, covering information through 21 May, indicated few material changes in the trajectory of economic growth in most districts. A large number of districts reported acceleration in manufacturing and industrial activity, but the outlook for employment and wage growth was largely unchanged with most districts reporting moderate increases in employment but only modest increases in wages.

It looks like the global investors will have to wait for the Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls data to make themselves more familiar with the latest details in the US job market direction.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains locked in a horizontal zone between the levels of 267.96 - 274.15 in neutral market conditions. This consolidation might take some time as the broader technical pattern that is being formed at the larget time frames looks like a triangle. The key level to the upside is still the zone between the levels of 274.15 - 273.42. The key technical support is seen at the level of 259.36.


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  #2997  
Old 31-05-2018, 05:02 PM
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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for May 31, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently, after bouncing off the 80.50-81.50 support area with a daily close. After being in a volatile and corrective structure with bearish squeeze along the way, certain bullish engulfing pattern does indicate the upcoming strong bullish pressure in the market.

Despite the worse economic reports on AUD Building Approvals published recently, certain bullish pressure has been quite significant and surprising for the market participants. Today, AUD Private Capital Expenditure report was published with an increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2%, but failed to meet the expectation of 0.8% and Private Sector Credit was published with a decrease to 0.4%, as expected, from the previous value of 0.5%.

On the other hand, today, JPY Prelim Industrial Production report was published with a decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 1.4% which was expected to increase to 1.5% and Housing Starts report showed a significant increase to 0.3% from the previous negative value of -8.3% which was expected to increase in deficit to -8.8%.

As of the current scenario, AUD has been quite positive with the economic reports in comparison to JPY today which is expected to lead to further bullish gains in the coming days. Though JPY still has the market sentiment on its favor, but recent bullish pressure is expected to sustain the price pushing higher in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the 81.50 area with dynamic level of 20 EMA holding the price as resistance. After the bearish divergence formed recently which pushed the price lower in an impulsive manner, current bullish bias is expected to push the price higher towards the 83.50-84.00 area in the coming days. As the price remains above the 80.50 area, further bullish pressure is expected in this pair.


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  #2998  
Old 05-06-2018, 06:11 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Global macro overview for 05/06/2018

Behind traders, the day without interesting macro events, which allowed markets to maintain a positive sentiment, continue to increase stock prices and bond yields, and for the currency market it meant the consolidation of the major pairs and a little more appreciation for risky currencies. The rest phase after the busy and violate end of May lasts in anticipation of fresh information or the creation of an unambiguous trend.

Yesterday, the dollar initially gave away the ground, but the situation turned around after the Wall Street entered the game. As a result, after 24 hours we see more or less the same: EUR/USD hovering around 1.1700, USD/JPY at 110.00 and GBP/USD at 1.3300. The fluctuations back and forth reflect a calm ordering after the events of the last days. European political risks seem to descend into the background, and investors rather than quickly jump to the discussion on the uncertainty in trade relations United States against the rest of the world, find solace in better macro data and the cool green of the stock markets. Nevertheless, this situation might not last for a long time and the sensitivity to shocks is still high, although the discussions on the market more and more often the question arises whether we already begin to decline in volatility during the summer holiday period.

Investors are waiting for anything to happen in major pairs. The quietness of the Italian crisis gives grounds for Euro to rebound, but so far the market participants cannot see a bit of a conviction that it is worth pulling increases higher.

It seems that the market has lost confidence in foundations and is looking beyond political factors. If we return to the balance of risks from two weeks ago, we face a pale image of macroeconomic condition that binds the hands of the ECB and delays the process of monetary policy normalization. Though after a series of a disastrous first quarter, now it should be easier for positive surprises, investors (and probably the ECB itself) need to strengthen the recovery of evidence to discount the better the profile of the risks for the Euro. However, this requires time and data.

Today's PMI readings and Eurozone retail sales may be the first flash of improvement: the German PMI Services data were in line with expectations of 52.1 points and Composite PMI was even a slightly better at 53.4 vs. 53.1 expected. In the Eurozone, the PMI Services was a tad lower than expected (53.8 vs. 53.9), but Composite PMI was in line with expectations at 54.1 points. The Retail sales data disappointed as they were released at the level of 0.1% m/m while the global investors expected 0.5% m/m increase.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the data were published. The pair remains closed in a horizontal zone between the levels of 1.1676 - 1.1726 in oversold market conditions. The key level to the upside is still seen at the 1.1749 - 1.1756 zone and only a sustained breakout above this level would accelerate the rally towards the next resistance at the level of 1.1829. Otherwise, the market remains locked and might continue to consolidate even longer.


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