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  #361  
Old 06-11-2018, 06:57 PM
TifiaFX TifiaFX is offline
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NZD/USD: Market expectations and trading scenarios
06/11/2018


After the publication of data from the New Zealand labor market on Wednesday, investors will follow the RBNZ meeting. At 20:00 (GMT) the decision of the RBNZ on the interest rate will be published.
As expected, the interest rate will remain at the same level of 1.75%. With the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China, the largest trade and economic partners of New Zealand, the RBNZ is unlikely to decide to change its monetary policy, according to economists, until mid-2019.
If the accompanying comments of the RBNZ or at the press conference, which also starts at 20:00 (GMT), contain signals on the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the near future, the New Zealand dollar may strengthen, including against the US dollar, even on the Fed’s plans to tighten US monetary policy.
While NZD / USD is trading below the key resistance level of 0.6810 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative trend continues, despite the current upward correction.
The signal for the resumption of short positions will be a breakdown of the local support level of 0.6630. After the breakdown of the short-term support level of 0.6600 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the decline will accelerate.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.6630, 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6500, 0.6430
Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6740, 0.6810, 0.6860

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6620. Stop Loss 0.6710. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6500, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6710. Stop Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6740, 0.6810, 0.6860


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Last edited by TifiaFX; 06-11-2018 at 07:13 PM..
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  #362  
Old 07-11-2018, 08:43 PM
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USD/CAD: the US dollar fell amid the election to Congress
07/11/2018
Current Dynamics

After the results of voting in the primary elections to the US Congress became known, the dollar fell in the foreign exchange market.
The DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, is close to 95.55 at the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, 57 points (0.6%) lower than the closing price on Tuesday.
The pair USD / CAD fell on Wednesday by the beginning of the American session by 0.35% to 1.3080.
As it became known, the Democratic Party on Tuesday gained control of the House of Representatives. Republicans retained a majority in the Senate and the White House.
According to economists, Trump will find it harder to reconcile protectionist measures, which increases the likelihood of rising inflation and a more significant increase in the Fed's key interest rate. Against this background, most likely, the dollar will soon restore lost positions and resume growth.
On Wednesday, market participants will pay attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of the Ivey business activity index (PMI), which assesses the business climate in Canada. The index is an important indicator of market conditions and the economy as a whole.
The Bureau of Statistics of Canada presented last Friday the data according to which Canada’s foreign trade deficit in September amounted to 416 million Canadian dollars (economists expected a surplus of 200 million Canadian dollars). This is the 21st month in a row, when Canada’s monthly trade balance with the rest of the countries remains in the deficit area.
At the same time, the trade deficit with other countries is observed against the background of a simultaneous reduction in Canadian exports and imports.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz announced at the end of September that interest rates are expected to gradually increase. In October, the Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 0.25% to 1.75%.
After weak macro statistics, presented on Friday, some economists concluded that a further increase in interest rates by the Bank of Canada remains in question.
At the same time, the US economy will continue to grow, and the Fed is likely to keep its course and raise the key interest rate again in 2018 and three times in 2019. And this is a strong fundamental factor in favor of further strengthening the US dollar, including in the USD / CAD pair.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
USD / CAD maintains a positive trend, trading above the key support level of 1.2970 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). The closest targets in case of continued growth will be the resistance levels of 1.3175 (August highs and the upper limit of the rising channel on the daily chart), 1.3225 (September highs).
The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the growth of USD / CAD in the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.3105 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Above the support level of 1.2970 long positions are preferred. Above the support level of 1.3055 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) purchases look safe.
Only a breakdown of support levels of 1.2740 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700), 1.2670 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) will cancel the bull trend.
Support Levels: 1.3055, 1.2970, 1.2740, 1.2670
Resistance Levels: 1.3105, 1.3175, 1.3225, 1.3285, 1.3380

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3045. Stop Loss 1.3110. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2740, 1.2670
Buy Stop 1.3110. Stop Loss 1.3045. Take-Profit 1.3175, 1.3200, 1.3225, 1.3285, 1.3380

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  #363  
Old 09-11-2018, 09:07 PM
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NZD/USD: Trading Scenarios
09/11/2018

Against the background of the weakening of the US dollar since the beginning of October, the NZD / USD pair is in an upward correction after a strong fall from mid-April and the level of 0.7380.
Having pushed off from the support level of 0.6430, the NZD / USD pair was able to grow by almost 400 points. The upward correction was stopped last Wednesday at a key resistance level of 0.6810 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Following the two-day meeting, the Fed decided to keep the current interest rate at 2.25%. The decision of the Fed was published on Thursday (19:00 GMT). In a statement, Fed officials confirmed their plans to further increase the interest rate. Market participants expect a rate hike at the December Fed meeting (12/19/2018).
The US dollar strengthened after the publication of the Fed statement. On Friday, the dollar continued to grow, while the NZD / USD pair slightly decreased, finding support at 0.6740 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
Breakdown of this support level may provoke a decline to the support level 0.6610 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart). A decline below the support level of 0.6610 will mean a resumption of the bearish trend.
Only a rise to the zone above the resistance level of 0.6800 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, started in July 2014; the wave minima are near the level of 0.6260) will mean a break of the bearish NZD / USD trend.
Below the support level of 0.6682 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) short positions again become preferable.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.6740, 0.6682, 0.6610, 0.6515, 0.6430
Resistance levels: 0.6810, 0.6860

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6710. Stop Loss 0.6820. Take-Profit 0.6682, 0.6610, 0.6515, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6820. Stop Loss 0.6710. Take-Profit 0.6860, 0.6900

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  #364  
Old 13-11-2018, 09:38 PM
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WTI: it's too early to talk about the turnaround of the bear market
11/13/2018
Current Dynamics

After the representatives of Saudi Arabia announced last weekend that in December the kingdom would unilaterally reduce oil exports, on Monday, oil prices rose, opening the trading day with a gap up.
However, by the end of the trading day on Monday, prices dropped again, closing the trading day in negative territory.
Oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump wrote in his Twitter account that he hoped that Saudi Arabia and OPEC would refuse to reduce oil production. In his opinion, oil prices should be significantly lower.
WTI oil prices have lost almost 25% over the last month, demonstrating the longest period of decline since the start of futures trading on this sort of oil in 1983.
Oil reserves in the United States exceed 420 million barrels. Last Wednesday, the US Department of Energy published weekly data, which indicated another increase in US oil reserves of +5.78 million barrels of oil compared to +3.22 and +6.35 two and three weeks earlier.
At the same time, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the USA rose again last week to 886 units, compared to 874, 869, 861 units earlier.
However, in recent months, oil reserves are close to the average 5-year values. It is unlikely that OPEC will decide to reduce production volumes. The next meeting of OPEC on this issue will be held in December.
A further drop in oil prices is likely, both against the background of a stronger dollar and rising US oil reserves. The volatility of global stock markets, which turned out to be in negative territory below key resistance levels, also creates prerequisites for a further decline in demand for oil.
On Thursday (15:30 GMT), the weekly report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products in the country’s storage facilities will be published.
The previous value of +5.78 million barrels of oil and petroleum products. If the reserves of oil and oil products in the United States rose again last week, then this will negatively affect oil prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
Below the key resistance level of 66.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
The breakdown of support levels of 57.80 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the correction to the growth wave that began in February 2016 from the support level near the 27.30 mark), 57.20 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) can return the prices for WTI oil to the global bearish trend.
Support Levels: 57.80, 57.20
Resistance Levels: 61.30, 62.80, 64.00, 65.00, 66.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 58.20. Stop Loss 61.40. Take-Profit 57.80, 57.20
Buy Stop 61.40. Stop Loss 58.20. Take-Profit 62.80, 64.00, 65.00, 66.00

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  #365  
Old 16-11-2018, 09:46 PM
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GBP/USD: the Brexit theme remains decisive in the dynamics of the pound
11/16/2018
Current Dynamics

The British pound stabilized on Friday after a sharp decline on Thursday on Brexit-related concerns. On Thursday, it became known about the resignation of the British Minister for Brexit Dominic Raab. Six members of the government also resigned.
The pound fell on Thursday even despite the plan submitted by the British Prime Minister Theresa May on the exit from the European Union, approved by the British parliament on Wednesday.
"This decision will be under scrutiny, but this decision is based on the best interests of the UK", said May.
At a press conference on Thursday evening, May defended her version of an agreement with the EU. “This is such a Brexit that meets the priorities of the British people”, she said. If you do not move forward, it will mean “choosing a path leading to deep and dangerous uncertainty”, in her opinion.
The pound also remained under pressure on Thursday after official data released, according to which retail sales in the UK fell by 0.5% in October compared with September, with an expected growth of 0.2%.
European Commission President Tusk said on Thursday that the EU wants a political declaration on a future agreement with the UK to be submitted by November 20, and a meeting of EU leaders on this issue will be convened on November 25.
Probably, the pound will remain under pressure as long as uncertainty remains regarding Brexit.
At the same time, the US dollar maintains its position, despite a slight decrease in the dollar index DXY. On Friday, at the beginning of the US trading session, the DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, is trading near 96.85, after DXY reached a 16-month high at the beginning of the week, exceeding 97.50.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday reiterated that the US economy is in "good shape". It is widely expected that the Fed will raise the key interest rate in December, and then raise the interest rate several times in 2019.
This is a strong fundamental factor in favor of further strengthening the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
After GBP / USD dropped sharply on Thursday, the pound rose on Friday and GBP / USD recovered.
Nevertheless, despite the recovery of the pound, short positions are preferable until clarifying the situation around Brexit. A meeting of EU leaders on this issue will be convened on November 25.
Long-term negative dynamics prevails below the key resistance level of 1.3210 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the decline of GBP / USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
The signal for opening long positions and the beginning of an upward correction will be the return of GBP / USD to the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.2980 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Support Levels: 1.2730, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2860, 1.2915, 1.2980, 1.3030, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2870. Stop Loss 1.2780. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2870. Stop Loss 1.2780. Take-Profit 1.2915, 1.2980, 1.3030, 1.3210, 1.3300

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