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  #131  
Old 07-05-2019, 06:30 PM
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Turkish lira goes down

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07.05.2019

Turkey is making its way towards another currency downtime, with the Turkish lira diving to its lowest value for almost a year after Turkey’s election authorities canceled the recent municipal election outcomes for Istanbul.

The decision provoked immediate street riots in Turkey’s largest city against the cabinet of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and pushed the evergreen buck to 6.1976 lira in early trade on Tuesday. It appears to be the highest value since last September, when soaring dollar interest rates along with a heavy foreign debt repayment schedule threatened to heavily impact Turkey’s banking system.

The major bank had to have interest rates raised steeply to defend the Turkish lira at the time, while the economic hardship since then made a contribution to Erdogan’s AK party losing control of the country’s three key cities in elections in March. What’s more, his critics currently accuse him of utilizing the state machinery to have a legitimate election overturned.

As a matter of fact, the Turkish lira headed south by 2% reacting to the news and has slumped by 1.5% since then. Turkey’s currency was at 6.1707 versus the evergreen buck. For the year, it has rallied by 16.3% against the greenback. The given outcome makes it the worst performing asset of all G-20 currencies, excluding the Argentine peso.

In addition to this, the Australian dollar rebounded steeply after the country’s major bank left its cash rate at 1.5%, thus disappointing many investors who had anticipated a rate cut.

Gauging the greenback’s purchasing potential versus its main peers the USD index hit 97.155, sliding by 0.1%.

Traders are still uncertain what follows from the American decision – whether the US would slap extra duties on Chinese goods or not.


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  #132  
Old 08-05-2019, 07:04 PM
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Rate cut by the RBNZ pulled the kiwi down

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08.05.2019

During the early Asian trading hours, the Reserve bank of New Zealand surprisingly cut its interest rate from 1.75% to 1.5%. According to the words by the RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr, the bank is currently uncertain about the future path of the interest rates. One of the main reasons behind these uncertainties lie in the US-China trade war and lower figures for business sentiment and consumer spending.

The kiwi plunged below the weekly pivot support at 0.6565 towards the next support at 0.6524. If bearish pressure continues, the next support will lie at 0.65. On the flipside, if the kiwi manages to recover, it will rise above the weekly pivot level at 0.6603. The next resistance is placed at 0.6644.


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  #133  
Old 10-05-2019, 04:09 AM
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European stocks decline in the face of trade tensions


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09.05.2019

On Thursday, European stocks headed south broadly due to the fact market participants had risky assets shunned, while willing to see whether China and America manage to dodge a trade conflict that would damage the world economy.

Eventually, the pan-European STOXX 600 index had slumped by nearly 0.7%, hitting a fresh four-week minimum.

On Wednesday, American leader told that China had the deal broken it had reached in trade negotiations with America, and vowed not to back down on slapping fresh levies on China’s goods.

As the world's leading economies proceed with their two-day trade negotiations in Washington on Thursday, traders were willing to know if a last-minute truce could prevent a steep increase of levies on $200 billion worth of China’s exports on Friday.

Over seven key sectors lost nearly 1%. Additionally, tariff-exposed auto shares went down by nearly 1.6%, while semiconductor shares lost ground too.

Banco BPM, Italy's number three lender went down by 6% having posted a halving of loan-loss provisions for the first quarter.

In addition to this, the country's leading financial institution by assets UniCredit went down even after it repeated its 2019 objectives and reported a net gain above analyst hopes.

Among the top divers were stocks of ArcelorMittal after the world's number one steelmaker cut demand estimate for its major markets and told it was facing the tough challenges of lower steel prices as well as reduced consumption in the European Union.

As for German wholesaler Metro, it headed south having posted another quarter of diving sales at its Russian business as well as its Real hypermarkets that the company is actually in the process of selling.


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  #134  
Old 14-05-2019, 03:11 AM
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5 important events this week will bring us!

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13.05.2019

British average earning index (Tue, 11:30 MT) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will reach 3.4%. If the actual figures are higher, the GBP will be supported.

Canadian CPI (Wed, 15:30 MT) – Higher than expected level of consumer inflation will be positive for the loonie.

US retail sales and core retail sales (Wed, 15:30 MT) – Analysts anticipate the headline retail sales to advance by 0.2%. As for its core level, it will likely increase by 0.7%. As usual, higher figures will be appreciated by the USD bulls.

Australian jobs report (Thu, 4:30 MT) – The level of employment change is expected to rise by 15,200 jobs. At the same time, the level of the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at the same level of 5%. If the actual level of employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the expectations, the AUD will be supported.

Speech by the BOC governor Stephen Poloz (Thu, 18:15 MT) – The Bank of Canada’s governor will be holding a press conference in Ottawa. He may provide some supportive comment for the Canadian dollar.

Hot news:

During the weekend, the US president Donald Trump continued to pressure China after the US raised tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods on Friday. He said that the deal would be far worse for China is his second term. The Chinese side said that it "deeply regrets" the US decision to hike tariffs and will apply countermeasures. As a result, the risky assets fell down. At the same time, the USD/CNH pair has jumped to its highest level since January. However, the trade negotiations keep going. The presidents of the two leading economies are expected to meet during the G20 summit, but now we may only wonder how many surprises the sides will bring to the market until then.

The Saudi energy minister said that two of its vessels were targeted in an attack on Sunday.

The ministers of the British Cabinet want the Prime Minister Theresa May to stop the cross-party talks and start indicative votes in the Parliament.

The bullish market is confirmed: Bitcoin has risen above $7,000 during the weekend. The total market capitalization reached $200 billion. Analysts see one of the main reasons in Fidelity, the famous financial institution, buying and selling Bitcoin.


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  #135  
Old 15-05-2019, 04:35 AM
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American import prices rally a bit

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14.05.2019

In April, American import prices surged less than anticipated in April due to the fact that jumps in the cost of food and petroleum were tamed by the largest tumble in the price of capital goods for a decade, dropping a hint at the fact that inflation could stay moderate for a while.

Tuesday’s the report from the Labor Department on Tuesday followed the previous week’s data, which indicated mild producer as well as consumer price jumps in April that underscored the Fed’s projection of no further interest rate hikes in 2019. Financial analysts state that inflation is also not too low for the major US financial institution to cut rates in 2019.

Early in May, the Federal Reserve kept rates intact and indicated little inclination to have its monetary policy adjusted anytime soon.

As a matter of fact, import prices tacked on by 0.2% in April after an unrevised 0.6% ascend in March. Financial analysts had hopes import prices would rally by 0.7% last month.

For the 12 months through April, import prices headed south by 0.2% having ascended by 0.1% in March.

Prices of American Treasuries rallied following the publication of the data. Amerian stock index futures surged and the evergreen buck jumped versus a basket of currencies.

Inflation could be spurred by the previous week's move by American leader to have levies lifted on $200 billion worth of Chinese exports to from 10% to 25%. Market experts estimate the latest tariffs could add up to two-tenths of a percentage point to inflation.

In April, prices for imported fuels as well as lubricants headed north by 2.5% having rallied by up to 6.9% in the previous month.


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  #136  
Old 15-05-2019, 04:35 AM
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American import prices rally a bit

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14.05.2019

In April, American import prices surged less than anticipated in April due to the fact that jumps in the cost of food and petroleum were tamed by the largest tumble in the price of capital goods for a decade, dropping a hint at the fact that inflation could stay moderate for a while.

Tuesday’s the report from the Labor Department on Tuesday followed the previous week’s data, which indicated mild producer as well as consumer price jumps in April that underscored the Fed’s projection of no further interest rate hikes in 2019. Financial analysts state that inflation is also not too low for the major US financial institution to cut rates in 2019.

Early in May, the Federal Reserve kept rates intact and indicated little inclination to have its monetary policy adjusted anytime soon.

As a matter of fact, import prices tacked on by 0.2% in April after an unrevised 0.6% ascend in March. Financial analysts had hopes import prices would rally by 0.7% last month.

For the 12 months through April, import prices headed south by 0.2% having ascended by 0.1% in March.

Prices of American Treasuries rallied following the publication of the data. Amerian stock index futures surged and the evergreen buck jumped versus a basket of currencies.

Inflation could be spurred by the previous week's move by American leader to have levies lifted on $200 billion worth of Chinese exports to from 10% to 25%. Market experts estimate the latest tariffs could add up to two-tenths of a percentage point to inflation.

In April, prices for imported fuels as well as lubricants headed north by 2.5% having rallied by up to 6.9% in the previous month.


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  #137  
Old 15-05-2019, 08:11 PM
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The jobs data may support the AUD

The Australian jobs data will be out on May 16, at 4:30 MT. The indicator of employment change demonstrates how many people were employed during the previous month. Analysts anticipate it to advance by 15,200 people this time. As for the unemployment rate, it is anticipated to remain at the same level of 5%. The indicators may bring positive momentum to the AUD, which is struggling amid the trade tensions.


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  #138  
Old 16-05-2019, 11:25 PM
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Weaker risk sentiment pulls the AUD to its lowest levels since January


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15.05.2019

AUD/USD continues to move within the downward channel. At the moment, the aussie is testing the support at 0.6917. This is the lowest level for the pair since the flash crash at the beginning of January. The next support lies at 0.6871. The bearish weakness may help bears to push the Australian dollar back to the resistance at 0.6957. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 0.7. RSI is currently testing the oversold zone, while the Stochastic indicator is already moving within this zone.


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  #139  
Old Yesterday, 09:31 PM
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5 important events this week will bring us!

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20.05.2019

Speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell (Tue, 02:00 MT) – The Fed chair is due to speak during the Financial markets conference in Florida. His comments may shake the USD.

British CPI (Wed, 11:30 MT) – The level of the consumer price index is forecast to reach 2.2%. Higher figures will support the British pound amid the Brexit pressure.

Canadian core retail sales (Wed, 15:30 MT) – The indicator is expected to advance by 0.8%. If its actual level is higher, the loonie will rise.

Eurozone PMIs (Thu, 10:15-11:00 MT) – If the indicators are higher than the forecasts, the EUR will go up.

UK retail sales (Fri, 11:30 MT) – Positive release of the indicator of retail sales will be good for the GBP.

Hot news:

During the Asian session, the market sentiment was softer. However, at the start of the European trading session, the US-China trade tensions have started over again as China warned about the countermeasures on Huawei case. The US president Donald Trump and his administration banned Huawei and other telecommunication firms from doing business with American companies last week. Fresh uncertainties increase fears in the markets.

Also, the People's Bank of China announced that it would continue to keep the yuan stable within the balanced range. It strengthened the Chinese currency.

The unexpected victory for conservative Prime Minister Scott Morrison pushed the Australian dollar higher. He promised to simplify the tax system and introduce a tax cut.

The Brazilian real continues to weaken due to the protests against the freeze to the education budget and lower growth forecasts for Brazil from BNP and Goldman Sachs. Moreover, as an emerging markets currency, it keeps being affected by the trade tension between the US and China.

Europe anticipates the elections on May 23-25. During these elections, the citizens of the 28 countries will vote in a new European parliament Analysts anticipate Eurosceptic and anti-immigration parties to gain a lot due to the Brexit and global uncertainties. We need to pay attention to the parties from the UK. If the conservative party of Theresa May gains fewer votes, than others, it will increase the pressure on the current prime minister to resign. Also, keep an eye on the comments by the Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini. He said that Italy could break the EU budget rules on debt levels if necessary to raise the level of employment. If his party succeeds, the fears in the market may weaken the euro.

During the OPEC+ meeting this weekend, the members agreed to maintain the production cuts. It pushed the prices for crude higher.


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