USD/JPY : Daily Signal And Analysis from Instaforex

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Currency
Rates
EUR / USD
1.08005
USD / JPY
111.844
GBP / USD
1.28806
USD / CHF
0.98296
USD / CAD
1.32592
EUR / JPY
120.797
AUD / USD
0.66182

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mazri_2008

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USD/JPY: although the dollar has momentous plans, it is too early to write off the yen





Nissay Asset Management believes that the greenback should support the continued demand of Japanese investors for US Treasury bonds. "We already saw USD/JPY support when the pair fell below 108 last week," said Toshiya Matsunami, a Nissay analyst.

"US Treasuries will remain in the spotlight of Japanese funds as they continue to search for sources of profit abroad over the low interest rates at home.

Funds may avoid buying debt in emerging markets, given their vulnerability to political risks. The dollar is expected to grow, supported by strong US economic data in 2020," he added.
 
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The expert predicts that by the end of the year USD/JPY may rise to 112.

However, it does not exclude that in case the pair sharply grows, the level of 115 can be reached.

"The uncertainties associated with the two main risks that have affected investor sentiment over the past two years, the trade dispute between the US and China and Brexit, have decreased, easing investor concerns about the damage to the global economy.

Therefore, the USD/JPY trading range seems to be gradually shifting upward, to 110-115 from 105-110," said Kengo Suzuki, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.
 

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Meanwhile, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank experts doubt the potential for further USD/JPY growth. According to them, the pair became vulnerable to sales after the signing of the first phase of the US and China trade deal.

"The trade agreement was priced. At the same time, uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the start of the second stage of negotiations, as well as the implementation of the provisions of the first stage.

If the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing stall, then USD/JPY may drop to 106-107," the analysts said.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/243483
 

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setiap hari ada berita semasa yang di kemaskini rajin-rajin membaca boleh dapat input berguna
 

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*Bank Of Japan Maintains Monetary Policy Rate
 

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BoJ Retains Monetary Policy Rate

The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy on Tuesday but upgraded its growth outlook. The Policy Board of the BoJ voted 7-2 to retain the interest rate at -0.1 percent on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the central bank. The bank maintained it yield target for 10-year Japanese government bonds at around zero percent. Further, the bank will purchase JGBs in a flexible manner so that their outstanding amount will increase at an annual pace of about JPY 80 trillion.

The BoJ raised its growth forecast for the fiscal 2020 citing the effects of the government's economic measures. The economy is expected to grow 0.9 percent in the fiscal 2020, up from the prior estimate of 0.7 percent. Likewise, the projection for fiscal 2021 was lifted to 1.1 percent from 1 percent. The BoJ estimate the fiscal 2019 growth at 0.8 percent compared to the previous forecast of 0.6 percent.

The BoJ said inflation projections are more or less unchanged. Inflation is forecast to rise to 1 percent in fiscal 2020 from 0.6 percent in the fiscal 2019. The projection for fiscal 2019 was lowered from 0.7 percent and that for 2020 from 1.1 percent. For fiscal 2021, inflation is seen at 1.4 percent versus previous estimate of 1.5 percent.
 

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The yen began in 2020 with the realization of what did not work out last year. So far, the pair closed the week in the bullish zone of the relative weekly cloud. Now, the main task of the players is fixing in this zone to increase in the near future.

After that, monthly resistance will follow 110.70 - 110.83 - 111.40.

However, breaking through the monthly boundaries is a more difficult task, since this will eliminate the monthly dead cross and mark the exit to the bullish zone of the relative Ichimoku cloud at the most upper time.

In this situation, support is located at 109.50 (weekly cloud + monthly medium-term trend + daily short-term trend) - 109 (weekly Tenkan and the lower border of the cloud + daily Kijun and the upper border of the cloud) -

Fixing below 108.08-30 can move players away from their goals for a long time.
 

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Forecast for USD/JPY on January 22, 2020

The dollar lost 30 points against the yen on Tuesday following the fall of the stock market (S&P 500) by 0.27%. The reason was a certain Chinese virus that caused the death of several people. We are very far from the perception of the local outbreak of the flu for the global epidemic, but, as it has been more than once in the last decade, pharmaceutical companies may well make a fuss and pull down markets using another cause of the disease. Today, the Chinese China A50 is down 1.21% in the Asian session, while the Japanese Nikkei225 is up 0.31%. The stability of the Japanese market helps the yen stay in the range of Fibonacci levels of 100.0-110.0% on the daily chart.



Consolidating the price under yesterday's low formally opens 108.50 at the Fibonacci level of 76.4%, but there are many obstacles to it from earlier record levels, 109.00 looks the most powerful - July 10 last year high and May 13 low. Overcoming the price peak on January 17 (110.30) may delay or stop the panic and send the price to the range of 110.83/98.



On a four-hour chart, the price is above the MACD line. Consolidating under it, which will automatically mean also consolidating below the MACD line of a higher scale, will unfold a complex, multivariant scenario of pulling down.
 
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