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Dear members we provides the latest market-based economy reviews. Please track our Analytical comments and research news and you’ll be informed about Forex veracities. We are anticipating that our indepth reviews must lift the standards of your trading. Analytical support is one of our massive advantages. Octafx has a large internal analytical section, gathering top level professionals in market research. Our analysts provides round-the-clock analytical support covering over 120 total market news, comments, opinions, predictions and much more. Our seasoned analysts also provides comments for several business broadcasting companies and TV shows.
 
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OctaFX.Com -Euro edges lower ahead of ECB meeting

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro dipped against the dollar and European shares edged up on Wednesday with investors trading cautiously ahead of a European Central Bank meeting and a U.S. jobs report.

Markets have been expecting ECB President Mario Draghi to unveil a bold plan to tackle to the euro zone's debt crisis at Thursday's meeting, but public disputes among policymakers over the extent of the measures have begun to sow doubts.

Friday's jobs report will provide a reading on the health of the world's largest economy after other data pointed to a global slowdown in manufacturing.

"We might not get all the details about the ECB bond buying plan tomorrow, but we know it's coming, so it's priced in. Now the question is: how bad is the situation in the U.S. economy? We'll get a better idea on Friday with the payrolls," David Thebault, head of quantitative sales trading, at Global Equities.
The single currency was down 0.25 percent at $1.2530, off its Tuesday's high of $1.2629 but not far from Friday's high of $1.26378.

The caution gripping investors ahead of the ECB meeting saw share markets across Europe open lower with the FTSE Eurofirst index (.FTEU3) of top
European shares down 0.1 percent at 1080.30 points.


Germany will sell 5 billion euros of new 10-year bonds with a record low coupon of 1.5 percent later in the session and the sale will give an indication of how concerned investors are about the outlook. German Bund futures were 10 ticks higher at 143.60 ahead of the sale.

Signs of slower factory activity across the United States, Asia and Europe during August have heightened fears about health of the global economy, although this has raised hopes of central bank action to ease monetary policy.
Those hopes kept oil prices near $114 a barrel and gold near a six month high at $1,691.64 an ounce.

Sep 05, 2012 07:55
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OctaFX.Com -Greece Needs to Leave Euro: Economist





Greece needs to leave the euro and reintroduce its own currency if it wants to get back on its feet and return to growth, Manfred Neumann, Professor of Economics at the Institute for Economic Policy at the University of Bonn told CNBC on Wednesday.

The country's dominant tourism industry and exporters simply cannot recover by lowering prices and wages, he said.

"It has to be done by devaluation and therefore they need their own currency," the professor of international economics who supervised German Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann's 1997 doctoral thesis said.

A decision on whether Greece will receive further aid from international creditors to cover its funding needs will be taken in October. The country needs to demonstrate it is committed to implementing a series of economic reforms.
Other countries may also need to leave, Neumann said, adding that under a very negative scenario in which he does not believe, the entire southern region could have to leave the euro.

"Now with respect to the other countries, I would say... if we are very negative... I'm an optimist, but if you [are] a pessimist, you would say possibly - over the next ten to fifteen years, the whole south has to leave," he said.
Spain had not been governed well, both under its previous socialist government and under the current conservative government, he added. Its high level of unemployment - historically above many of its European peers and now at a staggering 24 percent - could have been tackled ten to fifteen years ago, according to Neumann.

He expressed concern over the European Central Bank's response to the crisis in comments which showed his support for Weidmann, who clashed with the

ECB's chief Mario Draghi over a new bond buying program.
One newspaper report suggested last week that Weidmann was considering stepping down from the ECB board. The Bundesbank chief opposes the program, which is aimed at lowering borrowing costs for heavily-indebted countries facing high borrowing costs, such as Spain and Italy, arguing that the move amounts to a form of monetizing debt, which is illegal.

Echoing this view, Neumann said: "The problem is a change in the whole trend of policy making because up till now, it was forbidden. It was a rule not to buy bonds."

"The understanding when they started in 2010 was... well we have to buy some bonds simply to keep the market floating, to keep them flexible, but meanwhile, it's clear this is not the idea," he said.
He believes the move now amounts to outright support for southern European governments and that it endangers the euro.
He also saw no reason to support the idea of a banking license for the new permanent european bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism or ESM, allowing it to tap funds from the ECB.

"No, the ESM should not get a banking license because if the ESM gets this license, it would mean the ESM can borrow as much central bank money from the ECB as ESM wants to. And that would mean monetary policy would effectively [be] handed over from the ECB to ESM. That can't be," he said.

Sep 05, 2012 11:00
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OctaFX.Com - Is Now the Time to Buy Australian Dollar?



The Australian Dollar has fallen sharply off of its $1.0610 peak seen through August, but does the 400+ pip decline offer a buying opportunity?

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- Overnight economic data shows the Australian economy failed to accelerate, pointing to downside risks for the Australian Dollar itself.
- Our weekly trading forecast shows Australian Dollar is at clear risk as futures positioning remains extremely one-sided
- Australian Dollar may have topped amidst clear market complacency

The DailyFX Argument for Australian Dollar Long Positions:

- The Reserve Bank of Australia boosted the AUDUSD as it kept interest rates unchanged, giving hope that the Aussie currency would maintain its substantial interest rate advantage versus major counterparts.
- Highly-correlated Gold and Silver prices have broken key technical resistance, offering AUD support.
- Key Fibonacci support may offer an important AUD price floor at $1.0100
Conclusion:
Substantial Australian Dollar declines offer an attractive price at which to get long, but traders should be careful of clear fundamental risks to the AUDUSD currency.

Proprietary Speculative Sentiment Index data likewise shows that the vast majority of retail traders have gotten long the AUDUSD amidst one-sided price moves. There are currently 2.2 traders long Aussie Dollar for every one that is short—a level that has historically coincided with further AUDUSD weakness.
Reward/risk on AUDUSD longs looks attractive, but we can’t advocate joining the retail trading crowd in getting long the fast-falling Australian Dollar.


Sep 05, 2012 13:00
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OctaFX.Com -ECB bond plan gets cheered in markets
World stocks push even higher after European Central Bank announces new bond-buying plan






LONDON (AP) -- Markets rallied Thursday as investors cheered a package of measures from the European Central Bank that is designed to ease Europe's debt crisis and secure the future of the euro currency.

Stocks, well as the euro and the price of oil, have enjoyed a bumper five weeks after ECB president Mario Draghi said the central bank would do "whatever it takes" to save the euro.

On Thursday, it seems Draghi met expectations in the markets. — stocks powered ahead alongside the bond prices of countries such as Italy and Spain.
Draghi confirmed that the central bank was creating a new bond-buying program, called Outright Monetary Transactions. The so-called OMT, which will replace a previous mothballed program, will see the ECB buying government bonds with maturities of one to three years. It will have no limits.

Countries that have their bonds bought will have to accept policy conditions that will be partly monitored by the International Monetary Fund. The bond purchases will not increase the money supply in the 17-country eurozone.
"The ECB did not disappoint in its decision to start a vast bond purchase programme," said Marie Dimon, senior economic adviser at Ernst & Young.
In Europe, Germany's DAX was up 2.7 percent at 7,153 while the CAC-40 in France surged 2.7 percent to 3,497. The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was 1.6 percent higher at 5,750.

The euro, meanwhile, was flat at $1.2593.
In the U.S., the Dow Jones industrial average was up 1.4 percent at 13,227 while the broader S&P 500 index spiked 1.3 percent to 1,422.
The program announced Thursday is intended to keep the lid on the short-term borrowing rates of countries like Italy and Spain, giving them time to enact debt reduction measures and economic reforms. The borrowing rates of both countries fell further in response to Draghi's statement.

Many analysts remain skeptical that the plan will ease the overall crisis in the long-run as Europe's economy is headed for recession and governments have a lot of debt to tame.

"Don't depend on the OMT as a cure-all for what ails continental Europe," said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital Markets.
As well watching developments in Europe, investors are also keeping an eye on a raft of U.S. economic data ahead of Friday's closely watched nonfarm payrolls report for August. Thursday's weekly jobless claims and a private payrolls report from ADP indicate that Friday's figures may be better than anticipated.
Earlier, stock markets in Asia wavered before posting modest gains.
Japan's Nikkei 225 closed marginally higher at 8,680.57. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.3 percent to 19,209.30. South Korea's Kospi gained 0.4 percent to 1,881.24, boosted by tech shares.

Mainland China's Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7 percent to 2,051.92 while the smaller Shenzhen Composite Index added 1 percent to 859.30.



Sep 06, 2012 14:12
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OctaFX_Farid

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OctaFX.Com -Analyst responses to ECB's new bond-buying plan
Analysts give their reaction to a new bond-buying plan from the European Central Bank


LONDON (AP) -- On Thursday, Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, unveiled a package of measures that is designed to ease the strains in Europe's debt crisis and secure the future of the euro currency.
He announced that the central bank was creating a new bond-buying program, called Outright Monetary Transactions. The so-called OMT, which will replace the previous program, will see the ECB buying short-term bonds of of between one and three years and will have no limits.

Countries that have their bonds bought will have to accept certain conditions, which will be part-monitored by the International Monetary Fund. The bond purchases will not increase the money supply in the 17-country eurozone.
Here are some early responses from analysts.

Benjamin Reitzes, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets:
The ECB did almost exactly what was expected, and in this case that's a positive. Today's announcement should help contain the crisis, but the weak economic outlook looms, and the ECB will need to ease policy further in the months ahead.

Craig Erlam, market analyst at Alpari:
The next stumbling block will come when the countries request this aid which, as Draghi said, will come with strict conditions. There is likely to be long negotiations over these conditions with (Spanish Prime Minister) Mariano Rajoy and (Italian Premier) Mario Monti unwilling to take anything too severe given the harsh cuts and reforms already undertaken in both countries.

Jens Larsen, chief European economist at RBC Capital Markets:
The ECB is clearly intent on reducing the risks of very nasty outcomes, but also ensuring that the pressure remains on governments.

Marie Diron, senior economic adviser to the Ernst & Young eurozone forecast:
The ECB did not disappoint in its decision to start a vast bond purchase program. While we had little doubt that such a program would be announced, some of the details go beyond what we expected.

Neil MacKinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital:
Without trying to be a "party pooper", suppressed borrowing costs certainly provide relief in the short term but do not resolve problems of solvency and debt unsustainability.

Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital Markets:
The program provides a small measure of additional liquidity support to countries that request and receive a bailout. It is not, however, designed to "rescue" EU sovereigns, but rather to ensure that the deterioration of sovereign credit quality doesn't result in a sharp drop in economic activity/deflation. Don't depend on the OMT as a cure-all for what ails continental Europe.

Sep 06, 2012 14:32
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OctaFX.Com - Asia stocks rally on Europe central bank debt planBritish Pound At Risk Amid Weakening Labor Market, Slowing Trade

BANGKOK (AP) -- Asian stock markets surged Friday, boosted by a highly anticipated European plan to lower the borrowing costs of debt laden Spain and Italy.

Markets shot higher after the European Central Bank announced it was creating a new bond-buying program under which the bank will buy government bonds with maturities of one to three years. There will be no limits to the amount of purchases it can make.

The program — the ECB's most ambitious yet in efforts to halt Europe's financial crisis — is intended to keep the short-term borrowing rates of countries such as Italy and Spain at manageable levels, giving them time to enact debt reduction measures and economic reforms.

Large-scale purchases of short-term government bonds by the ECB are expected to drive prices up while pushing down their interest rates, making it less expensive for financially strapped countries to borrow.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index surged 2 percent to 8,850.49. Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumped 2.4 percent to 19,663.92 and South Korea's Kospi bolted up 2.4 percent to 1,926.42. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2 percent to 4,322.30. Benchmarks in Singapore, Taiwan, Indonesia, New Zealand and Thailand also rose.

Mainland Chinese shares soared. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index jumped 4.2 percent to 2,138.02 while the smaller Shenzhen Composite Index added 4.2 percent to 895.27.

Wall Street surged Thursday after the plan was announced. The Standard & Poor's 500 index soared to its highest level since January 2008, and the Dow Jones industrial average hit its highest mark since December 2007.
"Hong Kong market is in a very good mood today because of the rally from the Wall Street which is triggered by the ECB new unlimited bond purchasing program announced last night," said Jackson Wong, vice president of Tanrich Securities in Hong Kong.
"Now investors are getting more confidence that the ECB might be able to handle the current situation again. The euro went up above $1.26 and the ten-year bond yield of Italy and Spain went down significantly."
Spain's interest rate on its 10-year bond was down 0.3 percentage points at 6.12 percent after the ECB announcement. Italy's 10-year rate was down 0.1 percentage points at 5.33 percent.

And in an encouraging sign for the American job market, a report from the payroll processor ADP said Thursday that businesses added 201,000 jobs last month, the most reported by the survey since March.

Separately, the Labor Department said the number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 last week to 365,000. That figure won't affect the August jobs report, due out Friday, but could be a sign of better hiring this month.

Japan's powerhouse export sector — with many companies heavily dependent on European sales — enjoyed strong gains. Honda Motor Corp. rose 4.4 percent, and Toshiba Corp. jumped 6 percent. Heavy equipment maker Komatsu Ltd. added 4.9 percent.

Gains in South Korea, meanwhile, were driven by tech shares. Samsung Electronics Co. rose 4.4 percent and LG Electronics added 2.7 percent. SK Hynix Inc. soared 7.7 percent.

Chinese property shares soared. Hong Kong-listed Evergrande Real Estate Group surged 7.1 percent and Shanghai-listed Poly Real Estate was 6.6 percent higher.


Benchmark oil for October delivery was down 63 cents to $94.90 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 17 cents to finish at $95.53.
In currencies, the euro fell to $1.2635 from $1.2643 late Thursday in New York. The dollar fell to 78.92 yen from 78.95 yen.


Sep 07, 2012 02:44
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OctaFX.Com -German media warns unlimited ECB aid could ruin euro






BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's conservative newspapers on Friday accused ECB chief Mario Draghi of writing a "blank cheque" to troubled euro zone states that could put the entire currency at risk, with top-selling Bild warning his policies could make the euro "kaputt".
The Italian president of the European Central Bank unveiled a new plan on Thursday to lower the borrowing costs of euro zone states like Spain and Italy by buying their bonds.

Germany's central bank opposes the ECB's move. Chancellor Angela Merkel has supported Draghi while insisting Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann's public criticism of the bond-buying has been useful too.
For the country's conservative newspapers, many of which have taken an increasingly euro-sceptic stance as the three-year-old euro zone debt crisis wears on, Draghi's latest measures went too far.
"Help without end for crisis countries," said Bild on its front cover, adding that Draghi had signed a "blank cheque" and that his policy endangered the independence of the ECB. It cited German politicians saying the ECB had gone beyond its mandate of safeguarding the stability of the currency.
"Draghi sets off Germany's alarm bell," was the headline in the conservative daily Die Welt.
Business daily Handelsblatt, which often voices concern at the financial burden of the bailouts on German taxpayers and business, had a cover story on "the Rise, Fall and Resurrection of the Bundesbank" and gave prominence to Weidmann's warnings.

Inside, Handelsblatt criticized "the democratic deficit of the euro rescuers" - and linked the ECB's chosen path to next week's ruling by Germany's Constitutional Court on the legality of the euro zone's new bailout mechanism and budget rules.

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, a sounding board for Germany's monetary hawks, wrote that "the border between monetary and fiscal policy has been blurred" and called the argument that bond-buying was within the ECB's mandate "far-fetched".

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, attending an awards ceremony for Draghi late on Thursday, reiterated the government line that using monetary policy to solve the euro zone's fiscal problems could not be a permanent solution.
But senior Merkel MPs like her deputy floor leader Michael Fuchs insisted the ECB was acting within its mandate, telling Reuters:

"As long as there is conditionality, it is okay."





Sep 07, 2012 07:37
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OctaFX.Com - German Court Decision on Bailout Fund Looms Over Euro Crisis

Germany's high court decides the fate of Europe's bailout this week when it judges the viability of the single currency's emergency fund, after the European Central Bank pledged unlimited funding to overcome the crisis.

The Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe will issue a decision on whether to suspend the 500 billion-euro ($639 billion) European Stability Mechanism on Sept. 12, nine weeks after hearing arguments challenging the fund. The ESM would work in tandem with the ECB in buying bonds to lower yields for indebted states, including Spain and Italy.
In a week of activity that may determine the future course of the three-year-old crisis, the court's decision comes on the same day as Dutch voters decide whether to back parties questioning an expansion of European powers, and before euro finance ministers plan the bloc's next steps in Cyprus on Sept. 14. A court rejection of the ESM could disrupt months of European diplomacy, and investors will also pay close attention to any conditions attached.

"I think the court will say this is something that Germany can manage," Clemens Fuest, an economist at Oxford University's Said Business School, said in a phone interview. Still, the court will likely take an interest in parliamentary involvement and "impose some conditions" on the ESM.

ECB President Mario Draghi's bond-purchase plan sent Spanish 10-year yields down the most in a week since the euro's inception and prompted a rally in the single currency to the highest level since May. Spain's 10-year yield slid 1.2 percentage points to 5.63 percent last week, trading at 5.67 percent at 8:52 a.m. in Madrid. The euro, which jumped almost 2 percent to $1.2816, slid back to $1.2778 today.

Injunction Sought

The German judges heard oral arguments on July 10 from groups challenging the viability of the euro's fiscal pact and the ESM, which both houses of parliament approved with two- thirds majorities on June 29. The complaints by a group of lawmakers, academics and political groups sought an injunction against the law while the court reviews the cases in detail.

The challengers argue that the crisis-fighting legislation transfers constitutionally mandated authority from German lawmakers to Brussels and undermines democratic rule.

One plaintiff, Peter Gauweiler, a Bavarian lawmaker in Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling bloc, issued a new fast-track request for an injunction with the court yesterday seeking to delay the ESM decision, according to a statement on his website. The ECB's bond-buying pledge has "fundamentally changed" the situation and the bank must withdraw its "undemocratic, self- appointed right" to become Europe's "hyper-rescue fund."

Permanent Fund

Merkel and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble have expressed their confidence that the ESM will survive the constitutional test, as officials voiced greater concern over the details of the court's ruling rather than the possibility of an outright rejection of the permanent bailout fund.

"There will be also conditionalities for us politicians," Michael Fuchs, a deputy parliamentary caucus leader in Merkel's bloc, told Bloomberg Television Sept. 5. "They will give us some conditions under which we can form the ESM."
The ECB's plan last week took some of the onus off the court, since the euro area would still have recourse to the temporary European Financial Stability Facility and ECB funding if the ESM is delayed or scrapped, according to Fuest, who sits on an advisory panel for the German Finance Ministry.
"The world has suddenly changed after the announcement of this bond-buying plan," Fuest said.
Spanish Request
Italy and Spain maintained their resistance to requesting bailout aid last week, though Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti showcased the new ECB operation as easing the stigma of seeking help. His Spanish counterpart, Mariano Rajoy, said he wanted to study the details of the program.
Spain is likely to seek assistance in the coming weeks, Der Spiegel reported, citing unidentified officials in the European Commission. The ECB's plan places conditions on countries who want to participate in the bond-purchase operations.
ECB policy makers agreed to unlimited buying as a way to wrest control over rising borrowing costs driven by speculation that the currency could split up. Only Germany's Bundesbank dissented, issuing a statement after the Sept. 6 decision that the plan was "tantamount to financing governments by printing banknotes."
The program also sparked outrage in the German media, with Bild calling it a "black day" for the currency and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung declaring the end of the separation between fiscal and monetary policy.
Dutch Vote
In the Netherlands, politicians were jostling for position as polls showed that the five parties that signed an austerity agreement under caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte won't get enough backing for a new majority. The Dutch Labor Party, which wants more time for the country to meet budget targets, has caught up with Rutte's Liberal Party ahead of this week's election, according to a poll taken by Ipsos Synovate.
In Greece, government officials met with inspectors from the country's troika of international creditors, the European Commission, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund. Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras said talks began in a "good climate" and the troika sought more detail on some of the 11.5 billion euros of spending cuts for the next two years.
"We are at the beginning," Stournaras told reporters at the conclusion of the meeting in Athens yesterday.

Cyprus Meeting

After the court's decision is announced, euro-area finance ministers meet Cyprus to discuss the details of the next crisis moves, including the formation of a so-called banking union and new ECB powers.
Public skepticism about deeper European integration is undermining the progress leaders have made fighting the debt crisis, Monti told reporters over the weekend in Cernobbio, Italy. He said the push to strengthen ties in the 27-nation EU is threatened by insulting stereotypes and nationalist rhetoric.
"One can't help note a growing and dangerous sentiment of antagonism in member states," Monti said. "It's paradoxical and sad."
Meanwhile, billionaire George Soros took aim at Germany's political establishment.

"The best course of action is to persuade Germany to choose between becoming a more benevolent hegemon, or leading nation, or leaving the euro," Soros wrote in the New York Review of Books. "In other words, Germany must lead or leave."



Sep 10, 2012 07:20
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OctaFX.Com - Sterling Rises on News of Improving UK Employment


THE TAKEAWAY: The UK jobless claims falls by 15,000 in August, more than expected -> ILO 3M unemployment rate rises to 8.1% -> Sterling Rises

The jobless claims count among the UK population fell by the most in over two years in August. The amount of people claiming to be out of work fell by 15 thousand, and now total 1.57 million people, much better than expectations for the claim count to remain unchanged. July’s change in jobless claims was revised lower to a 13.6 thousand drop in claims, according to the UK Office for National Statistics.

However, the ILO unemployment rate for the three months that ended with July rose to 8.1%, after a brief drop to 8.0% in June. Although, employment actually rose to 236,000 over the period, the biggest increase in two years. The average weekly earnings during that 3-month period rose by 1.9%, which was slightly better than expectations for a 1.8% earnings growth.

August’s drop in unemployment is surprising when taken in contrast with the three straight quarters of economic contraction recently reported in the UK. It’s tough to say if this is a signal of an economic turnaround or an improvement that will not be sustained.

The British Pound rose with the improved employment numbers; GBPUSD climbed above the key 1.6000 figure. The next resistance could come in around 1.6129, by a year-long downward trending line.

GBPUSD 15-minute: September 12, 2012
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Sep 12, 2012 09:32 AM
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